Beat the Press is Dean Baker's commentary on economic reporting. Dean Baker is co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR).
The NYT noted the split within the Democratic Party between those who want to see more stimulus and those who want the government to focus on deficit reduction. It then told readers:
"But in a more fundamental way, the argument over fiscal policy represents the churning of a cultural fault line that has defined and destabilized Democratic politics pretty much since the onset of the Great Society."
Umm, "cultural fault line?" I remember the 60s. There were student and anti-war types on one side and the Democratic Party establishment on the other side, a key bulwark of which were the unions. What does this split have to do with the current divide, which places anti-war types and unions on the same side against Wall Street and business oriented Democrats on the other side?
The focus on "culture" rather than economics leads to further confusion throughout the piece. The article argues the need to rein in entitlement spending. No one disputes the need to reduce the trend growth rate in spending on Medicare and Medicaid. The question is how this is accomplished.
The Wall Street Democrats want to cut spending by reducing benefits under these programs. The "traditional" Democrats want to reduce spending by making the U.S. health care system more efficient. If per person health care costs were the same as in the U.S. as any other wealthy country, then the United States would be looking at enormous surpluses in the long-term, not deficits. However, fixing the U.S. health care system would involve reducing the profits of the insurance industry, the pharmaceutical industry and other powerful interest groups in the health care sector. The Wall Street Democrats do not want to hurt these interest groups while the traditional Democrats do.Add a comment
In her column bashing AFL-CIO President Rich Trumka, Washington Post columnist Ruth Marcus complains that Trumka got angry at the suggestion that the retirement age for Social Security be raised in response to the increase in life expectancy in recent decades. Apparently, Ms. Marcus did not know that the retirement age has been raised already. In 1983, Congress voted to raise the normal retirement age from 65 to 67 over the period from 2002 to 2022. Ms. Marcus seems unaware of this 27 year-old law.
Marcus also implies that Trumka believes that the country's fiscal problems can be solved exclusively by taxing the rich. This is not true. Trumka and the AFL-CIO have consistently been strong proponents of measures that would make the U.S. health care system more efficient, such as a public health insurance option and negotiated prices for prescription drugs.
Such measures would make health care much more affordable for both the public and private sector. If per person health care costs in the United States were the same as in any other wealthy country, the United States would be looking at huge long-term budget surpluses rather than deficits. It is difficult to understand how Marcus could have missed this aspect of Trumka's political agenda.
It is important also to note that measures that reduce the trend toward growing inequality, such as improved corporate governance that reins in CEO pay or a trade policy that is not designed to increase inequality, would also have beneficial budgetary impact. As more income goes to those at the middle and bottom, there would be less need for various government transfer programs. It would be useful if Post columnists would try to directly address the agenda of the unions, rather than caricature it in order to discredit it.Add a comment
The NYT had an article on the growth on India's pharmaceutical industry in which it raised its enforcement of patent laws as an issue affecting manufacturers' decision to locate in India. There is no obvious reason why there should be any relationship between the two.
Scientists in India can gain the knowledge to manufacture patent protected drugs regardless of where the manufacturing operations are located. Placing the facilities within India would minimally increase this ability. It is difficult to believe that this additional risk would be an important consideration for drug companies although they may use their location decision as a way to coerce India and other countries to adopt more protectionist patent regimes.Add a comment
It is standard in the United States to report GDP growth and other economic data as annual rates. That is not the case in other countries where it is common to use quarterly growth rates. Rather than just picking up the number as reported in other countries, reporters should convert it to an annualized rate so that their audience in the United States will understand what is being reported. (This is the point, right?) Usually, just multiplying by 4 gets you there, although for higher growth numbers, it would be best to do it right and take the number to the 4th power.
The NYT got it wrong this morning in telling readers that the UK grew 0.3 percent in the first quarter. Its annual rate of growth was 1.2 percent.Add a comment
That is the way reporters are supposed to report on the opposition by members of Congress to extending unemployment benefits and aid to the states. Reporters do not know the actual reason that these representatives are voting against these measures, they only know what they say.
That is why NPR got it wrong when it said that opponents of more stimulus spending are concerned about the deficit. This misled listeners this morning.Add a comment
The NYT warned readers that rising labor costs in China pose a serious threat to many companies that manufacture products there:
"makers of personal computers, cellphones and other electronics — including Dell, Hewlett-Packard and LG — deal with much slimmer profit margins [than Apple] according to several analysts. 'The challenges are going to be much bigger for them,' Ms. Lai said. Most other industries, from textiles and toys to furniture, are under considerably more pressure."
Actually, since China is the low-cost producer, it is not clear that rising wages there will pose a serious threat to even low margin firms. If costs for competitors rise also, due to the higher wages, then all the firms in the industry will be able to raise their prices to cover their costs leaving their margins little affected.Add a comment
Morning Edition ran a piece (not on its website) today that presented the view of the Admiral Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, that the national debt is the greatest threat to the security of the United States. According to the piece, Mr. Mullen claimed that in a couple of years the United States would be spending $600 billion a year in interest, an amount that he claimed was larger than the defense budget.
According to the Congressional Budget Office, the government is projected to spend $298 billion in interest in 2012 (@ 2 percent of GDP), less than half of projected spending on defense.
Add a comment
David Brooks has decided to jump into the debate over stimulus with both feet. In a column in which he warns against arrogance he tells readers that additional stimulus would: "risk national insolvency on the basis of a model."
Mr. Brooks doesn't tell readers how he has determined that further stimulus carries this risk. He doesn't explain how raising the country's debt to GDP ratio by 4-8 percentage points over the next few years would jeopardize the creditworthiness of the U.S. government. This is certainly a rather strong assertion, given that even with this additional indebtedness, the debt-to-GDP ratio in the United States would still be far lower than it had been at prior points in its history.
Even after a decade of accumulating debt at a rapid pace, the U.S. would still face a lower debt burden than countries like Italy do today. Italy is currently able to borrow in financial markets at very low interest rates. Projections for 2020 show that the debt burden of the United States would still be less than half of the current debt burden of Japan, which still pays less than 2.0 percent interest on its long-term debt.
Financial markets also don't seem to share Mr. Brooks view that national insolvency is a serious concern. The people who are putting their money on the line are willing to buy 10-year Treasury bonds at just 3.0 percent interest rates. That would seem to suggest that insolvency is not a real concern, but Mr. Brooks insists that President Obama should hesitate on stimulus because he thinks that insolvency is a problem anyhow, and the people who disagree with him are arrogant.Add a comment
In an article reporting on the weak jobs report for June, the NYT quoted Alan Krueger, the chief economist at the Treasury Department, as saying "economic recoveries don’t move in straight lines.” Actually robust recoveries from steep downturns, like the one we just experienced do move in pretty much straight lines.
When the economy first start creating jobs rapidly in April of 1983, following the 1981-82 recession, it generated more than 200,000 jobs a month for 20 straight months. The one exception was in August of 1983 when a strike at AT&T led to a reported loss of 308,000 jobs. This was more than offset by a gain of 1,114,000 jobs in September. Given the growth in the labor force, 200,000 jobs in 1983 would be equivalent to more than 300,000 jobs a month in 2010.Add a comment
The NYT's Ross Douthat gave pessimism a new meaning when he noted the economy's poor jobs performance in June and commented that:
"It’s now been 30 months since the beginning of the recession, and it looks as if it could take another 30 or so to regain the level of employment we enjoyed in the autumn of 2007." Actually, we are down about 7.7 million jobs right now from the pre-recession peak. Making this up in 30 months would require creating jobs at a rate of more than 250,000 a month. This is a faster pace than we have seen in any month of the recovery thus far (excluding Census jobs). There are few forecasters who are this optimistic about the economy's performance over the next two and a half years.
It is also worth noting that his claim that the economy was harmed by pessimism surrounding the stagflation of the late 70s is somewhat dubious. Investment, the component of output most sensitive to attitudes, was at a record share of GDP at that time. The investment share of GDP in the late 70s still has not been exceeded.Add a comment
The lead editorial of the Washington Post today mourned the "TARP martyrs" (seriously) who lost their seats in Congress for having supported the bank bailout. The Post's main points are that we were threatened with "financial Armageddon" had TARP not passed (talk about shrill), and it really didn't cost us any money.
Starting with "financial Armageddon," let's use a little common sense. Suppose TARP had not passed. The Fed actually already had enormous power to lend money to keep the financial system operating. The most immediate threat to the system, which Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and others highlighted, was the risk that the commercial paper (CP) market would shut down. They claimed that even healthy corporations were unable to borrow in the CP market. Since most large corporations depend on the CP market to finance their payroll and other ongoing expenses, the loss of this market would quickly cause the economy to grind to a halt.
While there is some debate as to how bad things were in the CP market at the time (the Minneapolis Fed disputes the claim that the market was shutting down), the more important point is that this issue was irrelevant to TARP. The Fed had the power to single-handedly support the CP market. In fact, the weekend after Congress approved the TARP Ben Bernanke announced the creation of a special lending facility to support the commercial paper market. So, that part of the financial Armageddon story was just a fairy tale for children, reporters and columnists, and members of Congress.
Suppose the TARP money had not started flowing and we saw the chain of bank collapses continue. The two remaining independent investment banks, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, would surely have been killed absent TARP and other special assistance from the Fed. It is all but certain that Citigroup and Bank of America would have gone belly up as well, along with many other large financial institutions.
Would this have led to financial Armageddon? Well, it surely would have created considerable disorder in the financial markets and led to a few million lawsuits, but the Fed and FDIC no doubt would have taken over these institutions to keep the system of payments operating. The Fed had a contingency plan to take over the money center banks in the 80s when they were threatened by large amounts of bad debt in Latin America. It is inconceivable that it did not have a similar plan in place following the collapse of Bears Stearns in March.
This means that "financial Armageddon" would have meant the demise of Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and most of the other Wall Street titans, but probably would not have led to a qualitatively worse economic situation for the rest of us than what we actually saw. In fact, there would have been a great benefit from this financial Armageddon in that it would let the market wipe out the fast dealing high flying Wall Street gang in a single blow.
This would eliminate the culture of synthetic CDOs and naked credit default swaps that provide ever more sophisticated and expensive ways to gamble. It would also eliminate many of the huge multi-million dollar paychecks that the Wall Street boys take home every year (or week). In other words, this is not obviously a bad story.
The other misleading aspect of the Post piece is its haughty claim that the TARP did not cost taxpayers any money. It is not clear whether this is an assertion based on ungodly stupidity or is just plain dishonest.
The TARP money was a form of insurance. The vast majority of insurance policies are never paid off, but that does not mean they have no value. The point here is that the banks were on the edge of going bankrupt. Private investors would not touch them. The government, through the TARP and the Fed, gave the banks the loans and the guarantees that assured the markets that the banks would survive. This meant that private investors could trust their money with the banks. That allowed the banks to weather the crisis that they had themselves created. They are now back on their feet and again paying their "top performers" tens of millions a year in bonuses.
Does the Post really not understand that TARP money was enormously valuable and imposed huge cost on society? If, back in the fall of 2008, the government had given a thousand community groups hundreds of billions of dollars of loans, accompanied by trillions of dollars of loan guarantees, these organizations could have used this money to make loans at very high interest rates and buy up assets at bargain basement prices. In this story, there would be no risk to the community groups, since if things went badly the government would be out the money. Of course, if the economy recovered, then they would be enormously rich, with large claims on society's resources as a result of successfully betting with the government's money. In the Post's account, the prosperity created for these community groups would have cost taxpayers nothing.
This is the story of the TARP. If the government had not been so generous with the Wall Street banks, Goldman Sachs shareholders would not have claims to $67 billion of the economy's output. Morgan Stanley's shareholders would not have claims to $32 billion of the economy's output. This is all a gift from the taxpayers to some of the richest people in the country. It is hard to believe that the Post's editorial writers do not understand this fact.
Add a comment
That is what readers can infer from an article that celebrated efforts by governments to weaken public supports for workers and to undermine their bargaining power. The article is filled with vague assertions about these measures are being celebrated, for example the first sentence telles readers that"
"In the ashes of Europe's debt crisis, some see the seeds of long-term hope (emphasis added)."
"That's because the threat of bankruptcy is forcing governments to implement reforms that economists argue are necessary to help Europe prosper in a globalized world – but were long viewed as being politically impossible because of entrenched social attitudes."
The article does not point out that there are actually sharp differences among economists on whether Europe needs to make changes to "prosper in a globalized world." Unlike the United States, which has huge trade deficits, Europe has consistently had near balanced trade.
Some countries like Germany and Denmark have consistently run large trade surpluses, in spite of having very strong welfare states. This is why many economists, including the OECD in its official assessment of member state economies, argue that strong welfare states are entirely consistent with international competitiveness. This article implies that there is a consensus among economists that European welfare states must be weakened. There is not the case.Add a comment
In an interview with the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review laat week, House Minority Leader John Boehner called for cutting Social Security benefits to pay for the war in Afghanistan. Somehow, this comment passed largely unnoticed in the media, including a Washington Post column that discussed the interview.
The column complained that Boehner, "offered few concrete thoughts about the GOP agenda." It later went on to say:
"Nor did he seem eager to tip his hand on the terms of entitlement reform. In his interview with the Tribune-Review, Boehner volunteered that the Social Security retirement age might need to be raised to 70 for younger workers but he would go no further."
Boehner's suggested increase in the retirement age would be roughly equivalent to a 15 percent cut in benefits when it is fully phased in. Since most retirees are primarily dependent on their Social Security benefits for income, this would be comparable in many cases to a 15 percentage point increase in their income taxes. Furthermore, this cut will begin to hit near retirees soon, since it is a phased increase of three years in the retirement age that will be completed in 22 years.
One might think that this sort of cut to the nation's most important social program would be big news, but apparently it did not go far enough for the Washington Post. Of course Boehner actually did suggest further cuts in his interview. He also proposed (in a somewhat mangled form) to have initial benefits indexed to prices rather than wages. This implies reducing scheduled benefits by approximately 1.0 percent a year. Under this formula, after 10 years retirees will get 10 percent less than is provided under current law and after 20 years they would get approximately 20 percent less. (Compounding reduces the impact slightly.) While the full cut would only apply to workers at the maximum wage (@$106,000 at present), workers earning $70,000 a year would see cuts that are close to half this size.
In short, Mr. Boehner has proposed very large cuts to the country's most important social program, to pay for an unpopular war (the Congressional Budget Office projects that the trust fund will be fully solvent until 2043, so the cuts are not needed to keep SS itself solvent), and the Post dismisses his comments by saying that "he offered few concrete thoughts on the GOP agenda." It is difficult to imagine what Mr. Boehner would have to say to get the Post to take his proposals seriously.Add a comment
The NYT reported Thursday that manufacturers in Cleveland were having difficulty getting skilled workers. It turned out that the problem seemed to be that the managers interviewed in the article were not willing to pay the market wage for skilled workers, offering jobs that pay just $15-$20 an hour.
While the NYT may have been wrong about the shortage of skilled manufacturing workers in Cleveland, there does appear to be a shortage of skilled economics writers at the Washington Post. In his column today, Frank Ahrens warns readers that when they assess Paul Krugman's dismal forecast for the economy:
"you need to read him through a filter. He believes that the $787 billion government stimulus approved last year was not enough to really kick-start the economy and that much more is needed."
While $787 billion is a big number, people who understand the economy would compare it to the gap the stimulus was intended to fill rather than just be awed by the size. The collapse of the housing bubble cost the economy more than $500 billion in annual construction spending (both residential and non-residential). It lost approximately the same amount of of annual consumption spending as homeowners cut back consumption in response to the loss of $6 trillion in home equity.
The $787 stimulus package was supposed to replace more than $1 trillion in annual demand. The stimulus package included a technical fix to the tax code of approximately $80 billion that provided no real stimulus. It also included around $100 billion that would be spent in 2011 and later. This left about $600 billion to be spent in 2009 and 2010, or $300 billion a year. Roughly half of this increased in spending at the federal level was offset by cutbacks at the state and local level, leaving $150 billion a year in net stimulus from the government sector to offset a loss of more than $1 trillion in annual spending from the private sector.
People who know economics would think that a $150 billion in net government stimulus is insufficient to offset a loss of more than $1 trillion. Unfortunately, Mr. Ahren is apparently paralyzed by large numbers and is not capable of making this sort of assessment himself. This leads him to mock Krugman for making completely reasonable statements about the economy.
Mr. Ahrens lack of skills apparently prevented him from understanding that the reponse he received from his equity strategist friend, Peter Bookvar, about the state of the economy made no sense whatsoever. Ahrens reported Bookvar's response to an e-mail asking about the economy:
"'Our fragile economy CANNOT handle any tax hikes whatsoever, particularly on capital and the income of those who invest, save and spend the most,' Boockvar wrote, meaning those American families that make more than $250,000 a year. The all-caps are his, but the feeling is shared by many."
It is not clear what Bookvar thinks that wealthy people will do with their tax cut. Saving and spending are direct opposite actions. He might think that saving will help the economy (it is very difficult to see how), but then spending would hurt the economy and vice versa. The only plausible meaning that can be attached to Mr. Bookvar's comment is that he wants wealthy people to have more money and apparently wants the government to run a larger deficit to ensure that they do. The comment concludes that "the feeling is shared by many," which would seem to contradict the Post's frequent assertions that everyone is obsessed by the deficit.
Mr. Ahrens also shared another piece of misinformation in his effort to discredit Krugman's assessment of the economy. In a recent column Krugman had made some comparison's of the current situation to the depression that began in 1873. Ahrens responded by telling readers:
"The fastest that information and capital could move in this sprawling nation in 1873 was about 80 mph -- the top speed of a steam locomotive. When bad times hit back then, they tended to settle in for a good, long time."
This is not true. The telegraph was in use since the 1830s, with the first transcontinental line put in place in 1861.
Anyhow, it is too bad that the Post cannot find someone with the skills necessary to report on the economy.Add a comment
That is not the way the Wall Street Journal reported it, but this in fact what it effectively quoted White House Energy Advisor Carol Browner as saying. The piece is headlined: "Smaller Oil Firms Might Exit Gulf."
The item at issue is the $75 million liability cap that the government currently imposes for spills from offshore drilling. This cap effectively means that taxpayers are paying for the insurance for oil companies that drill offshore. The article reports that the smaller oil companies are complaining that they would not be able to compete if they had to pay for their own insurance.
It would have been helpful if the article had made this point more clear to readers. While there are arguments that the government should pay for items like education for children or fire protection, it is not clear what the argument is that government should pay for insurance for oil companies that cannot compete effectively in a free market.Add a comment
In its article on the June job numbers the Washington Post told readers that:
"the chances of a strong, self-sustaining expansion that can significantly improve the job market -- which seemed a real possibility during the spring -- are now slim"
It is not clear who saw a "strong, self-sustaining expansion that can significantly improve the job market" as a real possibility in the spring. Certainly the Obama administration did not, nor did the Congressional budget office. Both projected very slow growth that would leave the unemployment rate above 9.0 percent by the end of the year. Most private forecasters had similar projections. The Post does not identify anyone who had a more optimistic assessment.
The article then asserts, with absolutely zero evidence, that ambiguity about the economic situation is responsible for the gridlock in Congress over further stimulus:
"The confused outlook is causing paralysis on Capitol Hill, since the recovery is neither strong enough to provoke a turn toward deficit reduction, nor weak enough to lend momentum to President Obama's push for more economic stimulus. As Congress prepared to leave town for the week-long Fourth of July break, even funding for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan was bogged down by the broader election-year squabble over spending"
This statement implies that if the data showed a weaker economy that the Republicans and Blue Dog Democrats, who are currently blocking stimulus spending, would somehow be more supportive of it. The article includes no statements from any of these members of Congress or anyone connected with them in any way that would support the claim that their votes on stimulus would change if the economy was weaker. The view that their votes on stimulus are responsive to the state of the economy is entirely an invention of the Post.
The article then presents events that were 100 percent predictable as surprises:
"In recent weeks, every pillar of the economic recovery that started a year ago has showed signs of weakening. Manufacturers had been cranking up production -- but now their inventories are largely rebuilt, and they are expanding more slowly. The housing market was recovering as well -- until the end of a federal tax credit for home buyers this spring."
Economists knew that the cycle of inventory rebuilding would come to an end. That happens in every recovery. They also knew that housing demand would fall after the expiration of the tax credit. The tax credit pulled purchases forward meaning that there would be fewer homes bought after it expired than the underlying trend and many fewer than during the period where the credit was in place. No remotely competent analyst could have been surprised by this falloff.
The article goes on to explain the lack of hiring as being due to a lack of confidence on the part of businesses:
"Increasingly, it appears that those months were an aberration and that businesses are too fearful to begin a hiring binge.
'People are still really cautious, and we haven't seen small businesses engage in any substantial way,' said Roy Krause, chief executive of SFN Group, a large employment-services company. 'I don't have any real indicator that would tell you things are going to accelerate faster than they're currently going.'"
A major problem with the fearful business explanation for the lack of hiring is that the average workweek fell in June (as noted in the article). Presumably firms are not cutting hours out of fear, but rather due to a lack of demand. If firms were not hiring because of fear, then we would expect to see hours per worker increase, as firms worked their current workforce harder in order to avoid hiring more workers. Since the opposite is happening, we can assume that the explanation for weak hiring is lack of demand, not fearful employers.Add a comment
It is absolutely astounding that so many reporters at major news outlets apparently have not heard of the housing bubble. This is like people not knowing about the risk of war after the United States had been attacked at Pearl Harbor. Surely such people existed, but you would not have expected them to be writing at the New York Times.
The NYT has a lengthy article today discussing Illinois' severe budget problems in the context of the deficits hitting several large states. At one point, it tells readers:
"Should the largest struggling states — like California, New York or Illinois — lay off tens of thousands more in coming months, or default on payments, the reverberations could badly damage a weakened economy and push housing prices down still further."
House prices in these states have only partially corrected from their budget-inflated levels. They remains substantially above long-term trends. In all three states there are extraordinarily high ratios of price of house prices to rents. It is virtually certain that house prices will fall further regardless of how these states deal with their budget problems. (Interestingly, California is using hundreds of millions of dollars to temporarily prop up its house prices. Presumably, it will end these subsidies once its budget crunch gets too severe.)
At this point, reporters should be familiar with the housing bubble and know something about its general dynamic. Its collapse led to the largest downturn in 70 years. This is a big deal.Add a comment
The huge baby boom cohort is just approaching retirement. Workers in their 50s and 60s have just seen much of the wealth that they were able to accumulate destroyed with the collapse of the housing bubble and the resulting plunge in the stock market. As a result of this loss of wealth the overwhelming majority of baby boomers will be relying on Social Security for the overwhelming majority of their retirement income.
Thankfully the Washington Post has the perfect remedy. It proposes to immediately start to raise the normal retirement age to 67 (from 66) for those just about to retire and to continue raising it until it hits 70 for workers born in 1971. This increase in retirement age would be equivalent to roughly a 5 percent cut in benefits for those just now reaching retirement age and a 15 percent cut in benefits for those retiring in 25 years.
Since Social Security will be the overwhelming source of income for most near retirees a cut in benefits is the same as a tax increase of the same amount. So, the Washington Post is effectively proposing to help homeowners near the age of retirement with the equivalent of an income tax increase of 5-15 percentage points.
It is remarkably that the editorial does not include one word about the loss of wealth from the collapse of the housing bubble. The Washington Post's news and editorial departments were completely unable to recognize the $8 trillion housing bubble prior to its collapse (columnist Steven Pearlstein is a partial exception). Apparently, they still don't know anything about the bubble even after its collapse led to the largest economic downturn in 70 years.
Add a comment
Morning Edition implied that there is some mystery about the weak job growth in the recovery to date, at one point referring to it as a "jobless recovery." It then tried to blame the health care bill and other issues for the lack of jobs. There is actually no mystery whatsoever behind weak job growth.
The recovery is extremely weak, with GDP growth of just 2.7 percent in the first quarter. Final demand, which excludes the impact of inventory fluctuations, grew by just 1.0 percent. Given the severity of the downturn we should be expecting growth in the 7-8 percent range. With such weak growth, it would be a surprise if the economy was creating jobs at a rapid pace.Add a comment
It apparently takes a long time for news to reach Washington, or at least the Washington Post. That is the only possible conclusion that comes from reading the front page Post article on data showing very weak pending home sales in May that told readers:
"Home sales were expected to decline once the credit ended, but May's acute drops have surprised many analysts. If the trend continues through the rest of the year, it could upend the market's tepid rebound and undermine the broader economy."
Actually analysts who follow housing data were not at all surprised by the sharp drop in pending home sales in May. The Mortgage Bankers Association purchase mortgage applications index had plunged after the expiration of the homebuyers tax credit at the end of April.
It is also reasonable to expect further declines in house prices since the bubble has not fully deflated. House prices are still about 15 percent above their long-term trend levels.
The Post had a policy before the bubble bursts of talking exclusively to economists who were unable to see the $8 trillion housing bubble or unwilling to talk about it. It appears to still have this policy.
Add a comment
Can the realtors possibly do anything that would impair their credibility with reporters? It seems not. After all, they ran around touting the run up in house prices all through the boom, insisting that house prices never fall. David Lereah, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors (NAR), even wrote a book insisting that house prices will not fall. If it is possible for an organization to be shown to not be a credible source, the NAR fits the bill.
This is why NYT readers might be baffled to see that the assertions from the NAR taken at face value. The article reports unquestioningly an assertion from Lawrence Yun, Mr. Lereah's successor as chief economist at the NAR, that as many as 180,000 who qualify for the homebuyers' tax credit may have met the requirement that they sign a contract by April 30th, but have been unable meet the requirement that they close by June 30th.
This one is ridiculous on its face. There was an uptick in home sales in April, but the level did not come close to the bubble peaks of 2005-06, so it should not have strained the system to any great extent. Furthermore, demand collapsed immediately after the April 30th deadline, so this would have freed staff to process loan applications that had been filed in April.
There were roughly 600,000 contracts signed in April. If 60 percent qualified for the credit then 360,000 who bought a home in April qualified for the credit. (It is necessary to be either a first-time buyer or have lived in the same home for more than 5 years. There were also income caps.) Mr. Yun's figure implies that 50 percent of these homebuyers were unable to close by the end of June.
Since the contracts were distributed over the month (even if there may have been some clustering toward the end of the month), the vast majority of homebuyers would have had more than 10 weeks to close in order to meet the deadline. Typically, it takes 4-8 weeks to close on a home. There is no reason to believe that the system operating any more poorly in processing these loans that they would ordinarily, which means that it is reasonable to assume that the overwhelming majority of homes contracted prior to the expiration of the credit closed by the June deadline.
It is likely that the 180,000 figure from Mr. Yun is a complete that likely exaggerates the number of qualifying homeowners who missed the June deadline by more than an order of magnitude. By getting Congress to extend the deadline on closing to September 30th, the realtors are creating a great opportunity for tax fraud. It would be very easy for contracts signed in July and even August to backdated to April so that homebuyers could get their $8,000 credit.
At a time when Congress is voting to cutoff benefits for unemployed workers that average $300 a week, its willingness to pass a provision that will almost certainly result in widespread fraud should be an interesting news story.
Add a comment