Beat the Press is Dean Baker's commentary on economic reporting. Dean Baker is co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR).
Sorry couldn't resist, but the lecture on why we should not care about manufacturing jobs from Eduardo Porter brought it out in me. Porter makes many valid points. Manufacturing has been declining as a share of total employment in the United States for half a century. The same is happening almost everywhere else in the world. And, he's right that the main cause has been productivity growth.
But that doesn't change the fact that the huge explosion in the trade deficit in the decade following 1997 led to a collapse of manufacturing unemployment. This drop in employment had a huge impact on large segments of the workforce.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The surge in the trade deficit, which did not have to happen (i.e. it was the result of policy) and could be reversed, cost 20 percent of manufacturing employment in a very short period of time. It is reasonable for politicians to talk about this policy even if the pundits don't like it.
The other point is that opponents of "walls" should pay attention to patents. These are not god-given or natural features of the market. U.S. policy has been focused on making patent and copyright protection longer and stronger for the last four decades. To engage in this sort of policy and then wonder why income is being redistributed upward is a bit like filling a body with bullets and then wondering why the person is dead.Add a comment
Why are none of the "free trade" members of Congress pushing to change the regulations that require doctors go through a U.S. residency program to be able to practice medicine in the United States? Obviously they are all protectionist Neanderthals.
Will the media ever stop the ridiculous charade of pretending that the path of globalization that we are on is somehow and natural and that it is the outcome of a "free" market? Are longer and stronger patent and copyright monopolies the results of a free market?
The NYT should up its game in this respect. It had a good piece on the devastation to millions of working class people and their communities from the flood of imports of manufactured goods in the last decade, but then it turns to hand-wringing nonsense about how it was all a necessary part of globalization. Actually, none of it was a necessary part of a free trade.
First, the huge trade deficits were the direct result of the decision of China and other developing countries to buy massive amounts of U.S. dollars to hold as reserves in this period. This raised the value of the dollar and made our goods and services less competitive internationally. This problem of a seriously over-valued dollar stems from the bungling of the East Asian bailout by the Clinton Treasury Department and the I.M.F.
If we had a more competent team in place, that didn't botch the workings of the international financial system, then we would have expected the dollar to drop as more imports entered the U.S. market. This would have moved the U.S. trade deficit toward balance and prevented the massive loss of manufacturing jobs we saw in the last decade.
The second point is political leaders are constantly working to make patents and copyrights stronger and longer. This raises the price that ordinary workers have to pay for everything from drugs to computer games. The result is lower real wages for ordinary workers and higher incomes for the beneficiaries of these rents. It also slows economic growth since markets are not smart enough to distinguish between a 10,000 percent price increase due to a tariff and a 10,000 percent price increase due to a patent monopoly. (In other words, all the bad things that "free trade" economists say about tariffs also apply to patents and copyrights, except the impact is far larger in the later case.)
Finally, the fact that trade has exposed manufacturing workers to international competition, but not doctors and lawyers, was a policy choice, not a natural development. There are enormous potential gains from allowing smart and ambitious young people in the developing world to come to the United States to work in the highly paid professions. We have not opened these doors because doctors and lawyers are far more powerful than autoworkers and textile workers. And, we rarely even hear the idea mentioned because doctors and lawyers have brothers and sisters who are reporters and economists.
Since some folks asked about the botched bailout from the East Asian financial crisis, the point is actually quite simple. Prior to 1997 developing countries were largely following the textbook model, borrowing capital from the West to finance development. This meant running large trade deficits. This reversed following the crisis as the conventional view in the developing world was that you needed massive amounts of reserves to avoid being in the situation of the East Asian countries and being forced to beg for help from the I.M.F. This led to the situation where developing countries, especially those in the region, began running very large trade surpluses, exporting capital to the United States. (I am quite sure China noticed how its fellow East Asian countries were being treated in 1997.)Add a comment
The humanitarian group, Doctors Without Borders, along with many other NGOs involved in providing health care to people in the developing world, have come out in opposition to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) over concerns that the deal will make it more difficult to provide drugs to people in the developing world. Their argument is that it will raise drug prices by making patent protection stronger and longer and by making it more difficult for countries to scale back protections that they may come to view as excessive and wasteful.
But the Washington Post editorial board tells us not to fear, that the TPP is actually "a healthy agreement." The gist of its argument is an analysis by Council on Foreign Relations Fellow Thomas Bollyky, which finds that there were few incidents of large increases in drug prices for countries following the signing of previous trade deals.
As I noted in a previous post, this analysis almost seemed designed not to find substantial rises in prices. Bollyky looked at changes in drugs prices immediately after a trade deal took effect. The problem with this approach is:
"In most cases, the rules in these agreements will only apply to new drugs, and even then to a subset of new drugs, for example patent protection for a drug that is a combination of already approved drugs. They may also allow for the extension of patent terms beyond the date where they would have expired under pre-trade deal rules, but here again the impact will only be felt gradually over time.
"Furthermore, the date of a trade deal with the United States may not be the key factor in pushing up drug prices. The United States signed a deal with South Korea in 2012 that required stronger patent and related protections, but most of these conditions were already law as of 2009 due to a trade agreement Korea signed with the European Union."
In other words, this before and after approach is a bit like weighing people the day after they gave up drinking sugary soda to determine whether this decision will affect obesity. It's not serious stuff.
There is evidence that prior trade agreements have affected drug prices. As I noted in that earlier post:
"An analysis of the impact of the rules in the 2001 trade agreement between the United States and Jordan found that it had increased annual spending on drugs by $18 million by 2004. This is slightly less than 0.16 percent of Jordan’s GDP in that year, the equivalent of $28 billion annually in the U.S. economy today.
"There is a similar story of sharply higher drug spending in Morocco, which signed a pact with the United States in 2006. In Morocco, spending on drugs went from $662 million in 2009 (0.7 percent of GDP) to $1.4 billion (1.4 percent of GDP) in 2015."Add a comment
The NYT had an account of the negotiations that led an agreement where holders of defaulted debt received billions of dollars in payments from the Argentine government. It made a point of contrasting the attitude of the new government, which was elected last fall, with the prior government, which it tells readers had referred to the debt holders as "vultures."
In fact, this is not pejorative term invented by the prior Argentine government, it is actually the self-definition of these funds. They are called "vulture funds" because they buy up assets that are in default, or expected to be in default, with the expectation that they will be able to get more money than the current market price.
In the case of Argentina, this expectation was based on the (correct) belief that they could use their political power to block efforts to have the I.M.F. and the United States accept the deal under which more than 90 percent of Argentine bondholders settled with the Argentine government. Had this effort been successful, as many in both the I.M.F. and Treasury wanted, then these vulture investors would not have profited from their holdings of Argentine debt.Add a comment
Robert Samuelson had what he thinks is good news, the pay gap in hourly wages between men and women is just 8.0 percent once we control for occupations and experience, not the more widely cited 21 percent. Samuelson tells us that it is a mistake to throw around this 21 percent figure since it doesn't include proper adjustments. While Samuelson is correct that the 21 percent figure does not include all the controls that we would like to see, it is wrong to claim, as Samuelson is implicitly claiming, that the choice of occupation is not in part the result of discrimination.
In almost all occupations, there is a clear pattern where the most highly paid sub-sections are predominantly male, while the lower paid ones are predominantly females. This is clearest in the case of medicine. Highly paid specialists like neurosurgeons and cardiologists continue to be disproportionately male. Family practitioners and pediatricians are disproportionately women.
One can believe that women just don't like to do things like learn about hearts, or one can believe that women face obstacles advancing in residency programs dominated by men. Samuelson seems to think the former. While it is probably not the case that women are ever formally blocked from entering higher paying areas of medicine or other occupations, there are many subtle ways in which the men already in these fields can make woman entrants feel uncomfortable. If these are not tackled then we are likely to end up with a situation where women's pay remains well below the pay of men, even if it is comparable when we adjust for occupation and experience.Add a comment
I suppose the NYT should get credit for only doing it once, but it is still necessary to ask what information it thought it was providing readers in describing the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Pact (TTIP) as a "free trade" agreement? As a practical matter, the formal trade barriers between the United States and the European Union are already near zero, so there is not much to be gained from further reducing the remaining barriers.
The TTIP is primarily about putting in places rules on intellectual property, investment, and health and safety regulations. It also establishes an extra-judicial process to enforce these rules. Free trade has almost to do with the TTIP, so why use the term to describe the pact? It is not providing accurate information to readers.Add a comment
Yep, all is fair in love and war and pushing trade agreements, and the Washington Post really really wants the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). So, when they asked Ivo Daalder and Richard Kagan to make the case for the TPP as part of a story about preserving American leadership in the world, the Post apparently gave the greenlight to name-calling.
This meant that the opponents of the TPP appear in the piece as "demagogues." Sounds good, now we don't have to deal with arguments from people like Nobel prize winning economist Joe Stiglitz or Jeffrey Sachs. Hey, if you oppose the TPP you're just a demagogue, not someone who might have a serious argument.
This is not the only cheap trick in the Daalder and Kagan's deck. They also tell us that:
"According to the Peterson Institute for International Economics, the agreement will increase annual real incomes in the United States by $131 billion."
Wow, $131 billion, that sounds like really big money. Of course if Daalder and Kagan were actually interested in conveying information rather than pushing their agenda, they might have told us that this projection is equal to 0.5 percent of projected GDP for 2030, when the full benefits are realized. In other words, the Peterson Institute is projecting that with the TPP the United States will be as rich on January 1, 2030 as it would otherwise be on April 1, 2030. Sound like a must-pass deal?
It's also worth noting that computable general equilibrium models of the sort used by the Peterson Institute to make this projection have a really bad track record in projecting the outcomes of trade deals. Therefore, we may not want to rely on this projection too much in making policy.
There is much else that is not quite right in Daalder and Kagan's argument. For example, they tell readers:
"The widely touted “rise of the rest” — the idea that the United States was being overtaken by the economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China — has proved to be a myth."
If the "rise of the rest" is a myth, then the I.M.F. is now a purveyor of this myth. According to its data, China's economy is now more than 10 percent larger than the U.S. economy.Add a comment
Neil Irwin had a good piece in the Upshot section of the NYT pointing out that the growing gap in life expectancies for rich and poor have made Social Security a less progressive program. He argues that this is a good reason not to consider increases in the Social Security retirement ages as a way to reduce the projected shortfall in funding.
This is true, but there is also a further reason that raising retirement ages would be regressive. Lower income people are far more likely to work at physically demanding jobs. A recent paper by Cherrie Bucknor found that 81.4 percent of older workers (over age 58) with less than a high school degree and 61.0 percent of those with a high school degree worked at jobs that were either physically demanding or in difficult workers conditions, this was true for only 29.4 percent of those with college degrees and 20.4 percent of those with advanced degrees.
The basic story is that it might not be any big deal for a lawyer or an economist to work until they are 70 or beyond, it might be considerably harder for a custodian or a waitress. We can run into serious problems when our retirement policy is designed by lawyers and economists who think that everyone has jobs like theirs.Add a comment
Alan Blinder is a very good economist. For this reason, I am quite certain that he is familiar with the concept of "secular stagnation," which means a persistent shortfall in aggregate demand. In fact, I suspect I could probably quickly find a few pieces he has written on the topic.
This is why it is surprising to see him assert boldly in the Wall Street Journal:
"The U.S. multilateral trade balance — its balance with all of its trading partners — has been in deficit for decades. Does that mean that our country is in some sort of trouble? Probably not. For example, people who claim that our trade deficit kills jobs need to explain how the U.S. managed to achieve 4 percent unemployment in 2000, when our trade deficit was larger, as a share of GDP, than it is today."
If Blinder accepted the problem of secular stagnation, then as a matter of accounting identities he would have to accept that a trade deficit makes the problem worse. The whole point of secular stagnation is that the economy is not bouncing back to its full employment level of output. The standard story that economists liked to tell prior to the Great Recession was that we didn't have to worry about unemployment created by trade deficits because the Fed would just lower interest rates and that would boost the economy back to full employment.
But if we believe that the Fed can't lower interest rates enough to lift the economy back to full employment, in part because it is difficult to push nominal rates much below zero, then the loss of demand resulting from a trade deficit is not made up by an increase in demand from other sectors. (Actually, Blinder has elsewhere written this risk of demand loss was a very big deal, when he justified the Wall Street bailout.)Add a comment
That would seem to be the implication of her Washington Post column, the headline of which told readers, "Republicans don't like Kasich because he sounds like Obama." What Rampell actually means by this is that Governor Kasich doesn't sound angry, not that his political positions are at all similar to the ones advocated by President Obama. (In addition to the headline items, I should also mention that Kasich is opposed to the steps President Obama has taken to curb global warming and wants the Federal Reserve Board to raise interest rates.)
This obsession with tone rather than substance is common among reporters, but the Washington Post seems to have gone especially over the top in this area with reference to Mr. Kasich. (Anyone interested in verifying that Mr. Kasich actually has a very right-wing agenda can make a quick trip to his website.)
This obsession with Mr. Kasich's moderate tone is remarkable because it flips the responsibilities of reporters on their head. Most of us are pretty good at listening to a politician and assessing whether they are angry, calm, reasoned, or other aspects of their demeanor. In any case, reporters don't possess any obvious expertise in this area, they are not theater critics.
On the other hand, reporters should be in a position to know that the claim that large tax cuts will boost growth and increase revenue has been tried and repeatedly failed and that almost no economists accept this view. They also should know that the promise to maintain a balanced budget regardless of the condition of the economy would lead to long and severe recessions. And, they should know that the Fed's expansionary monetary policy has helped to spur growth and reduce unemployment.
They should be sharing this information with readers so that they will understand that Mr. Kasich is making promises that are out of touch with reality. The amateur efforts at theater criticism have no place in serious political analysis.Add a comment
The Washington Post gave high marks to Ohio Governor John Kasich after he met with the Post's editorial board. The lead editorial noted that Mr. Kasich, "does not dismiss science." It goes on to point out that he recognizes that climate change is human caused, although he has no plan to address the problem. (Kasich does reject President Obama's plan, as the piece notes.) Editorial writer Charles Lane was even more effusive, asking readers, "what's not to like?"
People who follow politics and economics would have little difficulty answering that question. For example, Mr. Kasich signed a bill prohibiting the state of Ohio from contracting for health services with Planned Parenthood or any other organization that performs abortions. Kasich also has bizarre views on economic policy.
In addition to supporting tax cuts for the rich, which the Post criticized because of the impact on the deficit, Kasich also criticized the Fed for its quantitative easing policy. According to Kasich, this only led to companies “buying up more of their stock and making the rich richer.” It is difficult to envision how Kasich thinks this process works.
Most immediately, quantitative easing leads to lower interest rates. For believers in economics, this lead to more borrowing for things like buying homes and both public and private investment. It also frees up money for homeowners who refinance their mortgages. This allows them to spend money on other things. Lower interest rates also mean a lower valued dollar, other things equal. This makes our goods and services more competitive internationally, reducing our trade deficit.
All of these things create more jobs, which also puts workers in a better position to get wage gains. It is true that lower interest rates can also make it easier for companies to borrow to buy back shares of stock, although it is pretty bizarre to find a Republican who would argue against a policy that leads to more growth and jobs, just because it can increase the wealth of the rich. (Low interest rates also help to raise house prices, which are the main source of wealth for the middle class.)
Anyhow, the Post apparently thinks great things about a candidate who seems to have zero understanding of economics and has no ideas on how to address a potentially catastrophic environmental problem. It is worth noting that he proposed tax cuts, rather than tax increases for the rich.Add a comment
It's too bad the NYT doesn't have a policy of fact-checking their columnists. (I realize, it might make it harder to get columnists, but it would make their columns more informative.) Ross Douthat's confused piece on "The Democrats After Sanders" definitely would have benefited from more attachment to reality.
In the second paragraph Douthat tells us about the constraints on the budget since we are likely to face "the prospect of structural deficits for as long as baby boomers are taking Medicare." Actually, the baby boomers use of Medicare has relatively little to do with budget deficits. Medicare is projected to rise as a share of GDP from roughly 3.6 percent today to 5.5 percent in two decades (Figure II.D1). The costs are then projected to rise gradually to 6.0 percent of GDP by 2080.
In other words, there is no reduction in costs after the baby boomers are all dead. The rise in costs is not due to baby boomers, but rather the fact that people are projected to live longer (the cruel things we do to our kids). Also, the excessive cost of health care in the United States is a big factor raising the cost of the program.
But this confusion is symptomatic of Douthat's analysis. He argues that young people would be unlikely to want to pay the taxes to support a large welfare state once they are older and have higher incomes. Of course a big part of the issue is what happens to workers before tax income. If progressive Democrats are pursuing policies that lead to broadly shared wage growth, in other words workers get their share of productivity growth in wage growth, then workers can pay higher taxes and still enjoy much higher after-tax income.
For example, the Social Security Trustees Report projects that on average real wages will grow by 50 percent over the next three decades. If most workers share in these increases, then they may not be bothered much by a 1–2 percentage point increase in the Social Security tax. They would still have more than 45 percent in after-tax income than they do today.
While Mr. Douthat might want people to be concerned only about their taxes, economic theory would say that people care about their after-tax income. For after-tax income the extent to which workers can benefit from sharing productivity growth will matter far more than modest increases in tax rates.
It is also worth pointing out Douthat's confusion about the impact of deficits. As long as the economy is well below its full employment level of output, deficits will not matter except to the politicians and columnists who like to yell about them. If the economy actually is up against its resource constraints and is reaching full employment, then deficits do matter. This is actually a much simpler story than Douthat seems to recognize.
Of course, if the economy is near full employment, we will have more tax revenue and be paying out less money for unemployment benefits and other transfer programs. This will go far towards eliminating any deficits, as was the case in the high employment years of the late 1990s.Add a comment
The Census Bureau put out some pretty bad numbers on housing yesterday. March starts were down 8.8 percent from the February level and permits were down by 7.7 percent. The drop in starts was across categories and regions. There was no obvious weather-related factors to explain this drop.
Monthly housing data are erratic, but these numbers do deserve some attention. Residential construction is one of the few bright spots in an economy seeing weak consumption growth, stagnating equipment investment, and a rising trade deficit. If this is not just a one-month blip, it would be a very bad sign for the strength of the recovery.
In this respect it is worth noting that the latest number for first quarter growth from the Atlanta Fed 's "GDPNow" estimate is just 0.3 percent. This is not a good story.Add a comment
Okay, he does it against Donald Trump as well, but the theme of his column is to denounce both of them for pushing a "single story" for the difficulties confronting working people. While Sanders blames an economy rigged to favor the rich and Trump blames immigrants and the unfair trading practices of foreign countries, Brooks tells us that the real issue behind wage stagnation is "intricate structural problems."
Get it? Brooks used the words "intricate" and "structural," that means that he is a complex guy not wedded to a single story because these are big words.
Does Brooks happen to have any clue what these intricate structural problems might be? He doesn't give any hint in his piece. Perhaps he was referring to the now disproven story promoted by M.I.T. economist David Autor about the "hollowing out of the middle," which meant the loss of middle class jobs. More recent research shows that the only occupations seeing substantial growth in relative shares since 2000 were at the bottom end of the wage distribution, yet that didn't stop more income from going to the top. In other words, there is no obvious story linking the growth of income inequality and wage stagnation for those at the middle to technology.
The remaining villains are items like trade, restrictive fiscal policy that keeps the unemployment rate unnecessarily high, anti-union policies that undermine workers' bargaining power, and stronger and longer patent and copyright protection that increases the price that ordinary workers must pay for many items.
But Brooks isn't interested in looking at these topics, that could make you a single story sort of person. He'd rather just stick with his intricate structural problems even if there is no coherence to the argument that he might make. This way you can call the people you don't like names in The New York Times.
Add a comment
The Washington Post had a major article telling readers, "why populist uprisings could end a half-century of greater economic ties." The piece notes the rise of populist sentiment in both Europe and the United States. In the former case it is turning against immigration and also the European Union. In the case of the United States, populist sentiment is directed against trade agreements and immigration (also efforts to cut Social Security and Medicare.)
The piece doesn't give elites the credit they deserve for this backlash to their efforts to construct a system that serves their interest. In both Europe and the United States, elites have pushed policies of fiscal austerity that have the effect of keeping millions of people out of work and depressing the wages of tens of millions more by reducing their bargaining power. Overwhelmingly, the people who are victims of this austerity policy are less educated workers. There are few doctors and dentists thrown out of work by policies to reduce budget deficits. (It is worth noting that in the United States the Federal Reserve Board seems prepared to raise interest rates to throw workers out of work, if they start to get enough bargaining power to make up the ground they lost in the downturn.)
The elites have also structured economic integration to redistribute income upward. This is especially notable in the United States, where protections for doctors, dentists, and other highly paid professionals have been largely left in place, while trade agreements have sought to put U.S. manufacturing workers in direct competition with their low-paid counterparts in the developing world. The predicted and actual effect of this pattern of trade is to increase inequality.
Both Europe and the United States have used trade deals to make patent and copyright protection longer and stronger. The intent of this policy is also to redistribute income upward. They have also put in place extra-judicial mechanisms to provide special protection to businesses that they do not enjoy under national law.
In other words, populists are revolting against policies that are designed to redistribute income from the bulk of the population to the elites. The elites have tried to imply that such policies are necessary for integration. This is not true. It is just as easy to design policies that promote integration that benefit people equally, but elites in Europe and the United States have little interest in integration on these terms.Add a comment
I like Jonathan Cohn personally and have great respect for his work as a reporter and writer on health care issues. However, I think he actually told readers the opposite of what he intended in his Huffington Post piece headlined, "this one line sums up the big Clinton-Sanders policy argument."
The big line in Cohn's piece is that Senator Sanders' proposal for a single-payer system would cause a single mother with two children, earning $26,813 a year, to pay $2,314 in payroll taxes rather than getting health insurance for her family free through Medicaid, as would be the case now. Cohn sees this as a major hit to this family, which is a serious problem with Sanders' proposal.
There are several points here worth noting. First, as Cohn points out, Sanders is also proposing a $15 an hour minimum wage. This means that if this single mother were working a full-time job, she would see her pay increase by almost $3,200 a year, even if her pay was only at the new minimum. Of course, since she is earning substantially more than the minimum wage now, it is likely that her pay would increase enough to leave her still well above the minimum. This means that she would be substantially better off with Sanders's agenda. (There are serious questions about whether we can have a $15 an hour minimum wage without a considerable impact on employment, but we'll ignore those for the moment.)
The second point is that Cohn has to be very selective in finding his victim here. Let's suppose that this single mother was getting health care insurance through her employer, as most workers do. If we say the employer was paying $5,000 a year for health care insurance, under standard economics assumptions, this money will find its way into the worker's paycheck. This means that she will be paying an additional $2,314 in payroll taxes, but this will be deducted from the $5,000 a year that her employer used to pay in premiums that now going into her paycheck. (No, this will not happen immediately and not be the story with all workers, but this is what all good economists believe will eventually be the case.) This means that this worker will be $2,686 better off as a result of the Sanders plan.Add a comment
Paul Krugman had a good column this morning pointing to a lack of competition as an explanation for relatively weak investment in spite of low interest rates and high corporate profits. His immediate target is Verizon, where workers are now striking, which shows little interest in expanding its Fios high-speed Internet network in spite of soaring profits. Krugman points out that with little competition, Verizon sees little need to invest more to improve the quality of its service. He then argues that this weak investment is a major cause of secular stagnation, the ongoing weakness of demand that prevents the economy from reaching full employment.
I'd agree with virtually everything in the piece (Krugman may be a bit overly optimistic about the interest in the Obama administration in pursuing a serious competition policy), but there is an aspect to the argument that bothers me. While we should perhaps expect investment to be booming in a context of high profits and very low interest rates, investment actually is not low measured as a share of GDP.
At 12.7 percent of GDP in the 4th quarter, it's comparable to its pre-recession peaks. Given the weak growth of demand (yes, this is partly circular — stronger investment would mean stronger demand — but companies make their investment decisions individually, not collectively), investment is certainly not low by historical measures.
On the other hand, we continue to run a trade deficit that is close to 3.0 percent of GDP, or more than $500 billion a year. Suppose that our trade deficits were still in the neighborhood of 1.0 percent of GDP, which was the case before the East Asian financial crisis in 1997.
This difference of 2 percentage points of GDP would have the same impact on demand as increasing investment by 2 percentage points of GDP. That would be a huge increase in investment. If better competition policy could increase demand by even half of this amount everyone would view it as an enormous success.
So the question is, why do Krugman and others highlight the lack of competition in many areas as a cause of secular stagnation, but largely ignore the trade deficit? This question is further aggravating since the trade deficit has featured very prominently in the upward redistribution of income in the last two decades.
Note that contrary to the latest thinking in elite circles, it is not normal for rich countries to run large trade deficits with poor countries. The textbook economics say that capital is supposed to flow in the opposite direction. It is an incredible failure of the international financial system, traceable to the botched bailout from the East Asian financial crisis, that poor countries have been forced to grow by lending capital to rich countries. It certainly is not a necessary path for development and it has had horrible consequences for the working class in the United States and other rich countries.Add a comment
The New York Times had an article on the downsizing of Citigroup in the wake of the passage of Dodd-Frank. The piece twice refers to the “vise of regulation” in discussing the pressures created by the law to downsize. While one use of the expression appears in a quote from an industry friendly source, the other use is the paper’s own characterization of the law.
It seems unlikely that the NYT would say that a vise of regulation is preventing Pfizer from marketing unsafe drugs. This is clearly an expression of disapproval implying that the regulations are excessive and unnecessary. That is the sort of thing that belongs in an opinion piece, not a news article.Add a comment
Charles Lane used his op-ed column in the Washington Post to repeat the line that is now quite popular in elite circles: the stagnating wages and worsening living standards of large segments of the U.S. working class were a necessary price for lifting hundreds of millions of people in the developing world out of poverty. Oh yeah, and also the richest one percent happened to get unbelievably rich in the process as well. So people like Bernie Sanders, who want trade policies that will help U.S. workers, are actually being selfish. It's the one percent who are really serving the poor.
This argument is incredibly wrongheaded for many reasons, but let's just focus on its basic structure. The story goes that in the last three and a half decades we have seen substantial growth in the incomes of the poor in the developing world. (Actually the bulk of this story is in East Asia, but we'll leave that aside for the moment.) During this period incomes of ordinary workers in the United States, and to a lesser extent Europe and Japan, have stagnated. Therefore, stagnating wages for rich country workers was a necessary condition for hundreds of millions of people to escape poverty.
Obviously there was a link between these events, but the serious question (okay, that leaves the WaPo folks out) is whether it was a necessary link. Suppose that a natural disaster, like a flood or earthquake, devastates a major city. In response the federal government throws in tens of billions in assistance to rebuild the city. Ten years later, the city has a thriving economy.
In Charles Lane Eliteland the disaster was a good thing, because otherwise the city never would have been revitalized. But that is not the real question. The question is whether we could have had a path that allowed developing countries to prosper without impoverishing U.S. workers.
The simple answer is we certainly could have gone a different route and most of the story is textbook economics. I lay this out more fully in a piece that was solicited for the Post Outlook/Post Everything section, but never run there because they lost the ability to reply to e-mails.
The basic story is that there is no reason that we had to run large trade deficits with developing countries like China. In the economics textbooks, capital is supposed to flow from rich countries to poor countries to finance their development. That would mean we run trade surpluses with developing countries. Furthermore, the reason that our autoworkers compete with low-paid autoworkers in the developing world, but our doctors don't compete with their much lower paid counterparts (trained to U.S. standards), is that doctors have much more power than autoworkers. And, we enriched our one percent, while making developing countries poorer, by making patent and copyright monopolies stronger and longer.
Anyhow the story that U.S. workers had to suffer to help the world's poor is very comforting for the country's elite, and let's face it, they own the media outlets. This means that we can look forward to hearing it repeated endlessly, no matter how little sense it makes.Add a comment
Some readers may have been misled by a statement in a NYT article on the Verizon strike that the union members at Verizon receive an average of $130,000 a year in wages and benefits. This is what the company pays in labor costs per worker. This includes not only straight pay, but also overtime pay, employer-side Social Security and Medicare taxes, health insurance, and pension benefits. The pension payments are everything that Verizon pays into its pension, including payments to cover costs of retired employees, averaged over the size of its current unionized workforce.
While the $130,000 number would imply an average hourly wage of $65. The average non-overtime pay of Verizon's workers is probably in the range of $35 to $40 an hourly. While this is still a relatively good wage in the U.S. economy, it is considerably lower than the $65 an hour that readers may have inferred from too quickly reading the article.Add a comment
I'm glad to see that Paul Krugman has the same story about falling oil prices, inflation, and real interest rates as me. He pointed out that to the extent that falling oil prices reduce the overall rate of inflation it should not matter for real interest rates. What matters for the real interest rate is the expected rate of inflation for goods and services in general. Lower oil prices will matter for energy investment, but not for the vast majority of goods and services in the economy.
I made this point a couple of months back, although probably many times before that as well.Add a comment