On Marketplace radio this morning Chris Farrell told listeners that state pension funds will only get 4-5 percent nominal returns in the years ahead, not the 8 percent that many have assumed. This is wrong. Given the mix of assets held by these funds, current stock market valuations, and projected economic growth, 8 percent is the expected rate of return on these funds. It is virtually impossible to describe a scenario in which returns will only be the 4-5 percent rate suggested by Mr. Farrell.
Many people who want to see the benefits of public employees reduced are complaining now that current assumptions on returns are excessive. In fact, they should have complained in the late 90s, during the stock bubble years, when the assumptions of returns were demonstrably excessive. It is striking that many of the same economists, who completely missed the stock bubble and then the housing bubble, are now the experts that the media turn to when assessing the market's prospects going forward.