Analysis Beyond the Echo Chamber
The Americas Blog seeks to present a more accurate perspective on economic and political developments in the Western Hemisphere than is often presented in the United States. It will provide information that is often ignored, buried, and sometimes misreported in the major U.S. media. For more information, sign up for our Latin America News Roundup or visit the archives.
- Written by Jake Johnston
Last week I wrote about the American Task Force Argentina (ATFA), which has spent more than $3 million lobbying against Argentina. One of the primary players behind ATFA, NML Capital, detained an Argentina naval ship in Ghana earlier this month in an effort to force “full” repayment on defaulted Argentina bonds, which were purchased for just a fraction of their face value.
The lobbying group also lists many farmers associations and education groups amongst its members. These groups have often been cited by ATFA when it has argued that the issue of Argentina being forced, to pay back “full” value is important to mainstream America, and not just hedge fund managers. Never mind the fact that Argentina has reached agreement with 95 percent of bondholders. But a report from the Wall Street Journal reveals that ATFA is really closer to a “vulture funds…lobby facade,” as Argentina ambassador Jorge Arguello has referred to it. The Journal reports:
Mr. Matlack is president of American Agriculture Movement, a farmers' advocacy group that was listed among about 40 members of American Task Force Argentina, whose stated mission is to help investors recoup money from Argentina's 2001 bond default and subsequent restructuring.
But Mr. Matlack and some leaders of other groups representing ranchers, teachers and farmers, are baffled about why the task force listed their organizations as members "united for a just and fair reconciliation" of Argentina's default.
Reached while he was planting wheat on his farm, Mr. Matlack said he had never heard of American Task Force Argentina. "We don't have anything to do with Argentina's debt," he said.
Also perplexed are leaders of the Colorado conference of the American Association of University Professors, which was listed under members and supporters. "This is absolutely foreign to me," says Ray Hogler, legislative director of the academic group.
Both groups were dropped from the list after the Wall Street Journal alerted the task force to the discrepancies.
This abuse of the names of professional associations to further the interests of vulture funds should give additional pause to those in the House and Senate who have argued in favor of bending the foreign policy of the United States in favor of those funds’ interests.
- Written by Mark Weisbrot
As I have noted previously, fake polling and other suspicious activities in previous Venezuelan elections had helped those with a political agenda, including some journalists, advance their interests. There was less of this in Venezuela’s October 7 election than in some previous elections, but still plenty to go around. The dubious achievement awards for this election go to:
- Barclays, one of the world’s biggest banks: put out a report two days before the election stating that “an opposition victory looks likely,” and recommending to its investors that they buy Venezuelan bonds. Two days later Chavez won by 11 percentage points, and Venezuelan bonds fell by about 5 percent, although they have since recovered much of this loss. (As an intermediate to long term investment, Venezuelan dollar-denominated bonds are most likely a good buy, since the return is quite high and the risk of default is low. But those who took Barclays’ advice were betting on the election, and they lost.)
- Varianzas, a major Venezuelan polling firm, published an exit poll on the day of the election showing Chavez losing by a margin of 3.2 percentage points. A result this far off the mark has an extremely small probability of occurring by random error.
So, what I want to know: was anybody fired for these mistakes? Bloomberg noted that the lead analyst for the Barclays report was a Venezuelan who had “run unsuccessfully for public office as a member of Capriles’s Primero Justicia party.” Was it incompetence or just a desire to help the cause of the opposition that led to this gross error? You make the call. Polling firm Consultores 21 predicted a Chavez loss by 4.6 percentage points before the election. Consultores 21 had a track record of significant bias toward the opposition, but it was used by many media outlets to say that the election would be close. Will any of these people be taken seriously in other forecasts? If they made these enormous errors in the U.S. presidential race, the answer would be an obvious no. But there are special standards for sources on Venezuela . . .
Seven polling houses in September showed an average lead for Chavez of 11.7 percentage points. (The Wilson Center reported this as “Though major polling firms differ on where the race stands, they seem to agree that the final outcome is almost impossible to predict.”) So just taking the average would have gotten you within 0.7 points of the actual result. CEPR’s statistical analysis of the polling, correcting for past bias, estimated a 13.7 percent lead for Chavez, and gave Capriles a 5.7 percent chance of winning.
Some of the pre-election analysis was not dishonest but still difficult to understand. Political scientist Iñaki Sagarzazu analyzed past and current polling data and concluded on Oct. 2 that “As it stands the race is extremely close.” An 11 point margin is not extremely close, in the sense that pollsters with reasonable skill should to be able to predict the winner of such and election in advance.
As bad as the major English-language media coverage was, the Spanish-language media coverage was worse. ABC in Spain reported wild stories of a Chavez government “plan” to take over the country by military force if they lost the election – stories that were completely ignored in the major English-language media, but picked up in major Latin American newspapers. The Latin American media is the main reason that most people in Latin America have a view of Venezuela that is as distorted as, or worse than that of most U.S. residents.
Peru’s La Republica ran a piece this week by political scientist Steven Levitsky, who invented a new label for Venezuela under Chavez, “Competitive Authoritarianism.” For him, the Chavez government is “equally authoritarian” as the Fujimori government in Peru. Fujimori carried out a presidential coup in 1992, dissolving the Congress and suspending the constitution; the legitimacy of his government was widely questioned internationally throughout most of his tenure. He is currently serving a prison sentence for murder, kidnapping, and corruption that he was found to be personally responsible for during his presidency. Venezuela, by contrast, has had 15 elections or referenda under the Chavez administration, without any serious question of legitimacy; it has vastly increased voter registration and participation (more than 96 percent and 80 percent, respectively in the most recent election, which Jimmy Carter called the best electoral process of 92 countries that he had observed).
But for Levitsky, “there is not democracy in Venezuela,” but rather a form of authoritarianism like Fujimori’s Peru. This is a bit like asserting that the United States and Saudi Arabia have the same political systems, since in both countries the vast majority of the people have little or no input into the most important national policy decisions that affect their lives. Probably no political scientist could get away with such an exaggeration. But hey, this is about Venezuela – exaggeration is the norm, and anything goes.
- Written by Jake Johnston
Ecuadorian plaintiffs, seeking to collect $19 billion in damages from Chevron, will be able to seize some $200 million of the company’s assets in Ecuador, a court ruled Monday. Reuters reports that the court in Lago Agrio, Ecuador ruled that assets, including money in Chevron bank accounts in Ecuador and money the Ecuadorian government owes to Chevron, be turned over to the plaintiffs. Just last week the U.S. Supreme Court dealt Chevron another blow, rejecting an attempt to block enforcement of the $19 billion ruling in the U.S. The plaintiffs have filed suits in Brazil and Canada to try and enforce the ruling. On the victory Monday, Pablo Fajardo, the lead lawyer for the affected Ecuadorian communities, told Reuters, “This is a huge first step for the rainforest villagers on the road to collecting the entire $19bn judgement.”
Chilean student leaders, Camila Vallejo and Noam Titelman, are in the United States this week where they will receive the 2012 International Letelier-Moffitt Human Rights Award presented by the Institute for Policy Studies. Democracy NOW! speaks with the two student leaders, who have helped organize some of the largest protests in Chile since the Pinochet dictatorship. Titelman said, “our public education is dying, we have only 36 percent of students going to public schools. Here in the States, it’s almost 90 percent. It’s really a very special example of how privatized can a state become.” Meanwhile, back in Chile, thousands of students took to the streets in Valparaiso to demand urgent action on education reform, reports the Associated Press.
State intervention is back in Latin America, and helping to create social policies and reduce inequalities, according to the regional director of the UN Development Program, Herlado Muñoz reports Mercopress. As opposed to the 90s when the Washington Consensus dictated that the government was the problem, Muñoz notes that, “For the first time in many decades the State is back in Latin America.” CEPR research has shown that there is a relationship between moving away from the Washington Consensus and reducing inequality. Juan Montecino, using econometric techniques to look at the data, determined that left-of-center governments have on average decreased inequality more than their counterparts.
As Colombian government and FARC negotiators head to Norway to begin peace talks, a judge in Colombia ordered the return of some 160 acres of land to 14 families in the country’s first land restitution ruling. President Santos enacted the Victims and Land Restitution law last year, yet since then progress has stagnated and violence against those seeking restitution has continued. The issue of land reform is one of the main demands being sought by the FARC in peace negotiations.
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- Written by Jake Johnston
The second presidential debate will take place tonight at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York. The topics will range from domestic to foreign policy, meaning the issue of “free” trade* is sure to come up. On this topic, there is little daylight between the two candidates. In 2008, candidates from both the Republican and Democratic Party participated in an “anti-NAFTA off”, competing in Rust Belt states that have lost hundreds of thousands of manufacturing jobs. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), stated clearly after the election that the “results demonstrated Americans’ continued rejection of NAFTA style trade agreements."
Nevertheless, the last four years have seen a series of “NAFTA-style trade agreements” passed despite significant opposition from within the Democratic Party. President Obama has signed trade agreements with Colombia, Panama and Korea and is now negotiating the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a trade deal with at least 10 countries that Public Citizen’s Lori Wallach describes as “NAFTA-on-steroids with the world.” During the last debate, President Obama touted the trade deals as boosting exports while Romney said he would push for even more “free trade.” Wallach writes:
In an election dominated by the urgent agenda of U.S. job creation, it is a sorry statement about the domination of corporate money in American elections that both presidential candidates tout these NAFTA-style "free trade" deals. Repeated polls show that opposition to these NAFTA-style deals is one of the only issues that unites Democratic, Republican and Independent voters.
- Written by Jake Johnston
Reforms to Mexico’s labor law have faced growing resistance, writes David Bacon for In These Times. The law, which Benedicto Martinez Orozco, president of the Authentic Labor Front (FAT), calls “a monstrous law,” would allow for greater flexibility on the part of owners to hire and fire workers. It would replace daily wages with hourly wages, allow for hiring through labor contractors, and limit employer’s liability for back pay, among other changes. One aspect of the reform that unions had fought for, the right to a secret ballot, seen as key to diminishing the power of the PRI-backed non-democratic unions, was stripped from the bill. Over the past weeks, a broad sector of groups have protested the bill, going so far as blocking the doors of congress last week to prevent them from considering the labor reform.
Paraguay’s foreign minister, Jose Felix Fernandez Estigarribia, confirmed that he traveled to the US last week to meet with a South American ambassador about Paraguay’s reincorporation into UNASUR and Mercosur, regional groups which Paraguay was suspended from following the ouster of Fernando Lugo. Mercopress also reports that two ambassadors will be returning to Paraguay, expected to be from Colombia and Panama. Following the 2009 coup in Honduras, both Panama and Colombia sided with the US and supported the electoral process under the coup government, while the rest of the region refused to recognize the results.
What place will the FARC have in Colombian politics if the peace negotiations are successful, asks Chris Kraul in the Los Angeles Times. While a main plank of the negotiations will be ensuring a political voice for the rebels, they will try and avoid the fate of Union Patriotica a former party with ties to the rebels. Over 1,100 members of the party were killed during the 80s and 90s by right wing paramilitaries. Some analysts believe the FARC will try to enter the political debate through Marcha Patriotica, an agrarian reform movement that has launched large demonstrations throughout Colombia recently.
News Corp., Rupert Murdoch’s media conglomerate, is expected to add Alvaro Uribe, the former President of Colombia to their board today, reports Roque Planas for The Huffington Post. Free press advocates note that it seems like an odd choice given the wiretapping scandals that both News Corp. and Alvaro Uribe have been embroiled in. Many ex-aids to Uribe are facing criminal probes into the illegal wiretapping of supreme court judges, human rights workers and journalists by the Colombian intelligence agency. News Corp., for their part, is still dealing with the aftermath of the phone hacking scandal at News of the World last year. Political scientist Claudia Lopez notes one difference, “News Corp., as far as I know, never threatened anyone with death…Institutions that answered directly to Alvaro Uribe did.”
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- Written by Jake Johnston
The New York Times reported Saturday on U.S. drug efforts in Honduras. Following a series of bungled raids and downed airplanes, the Times reports that “All joint operations in Honduras are now suspended,” while U.S. officials develop a new plan which will encompass other areas of reform. On the deadly raid in Ahuas, which CEPR policy analyst Alexander Main and Annie Bird of Rights Action documented in detail here, Senator Patrick Leahy (D-VT) told the Times, “This operation was bungled in its conception, in its implementation and in its aftermath.”
Many former recipients of IMF loans spoke out at the annual meetings this week against the conditionalities imposed by the IMF, Reuters reports. The IMF released new research last week showing that the austerity policies they imposed as lending conditions caused up to three times more economic damage than they had previously estimated. Argentina, which defaulted on their debt after an economic crisis triggered in part by IMF austerity policies in the early 2000s, noted the IMF’s admission was a “first step”, but Finance Minister Hernán Lorenzino added, “Once again... the IMF is endorsing policy conditionalities and reform strategies that are bound to fail, worsening recession and unemployment levels in programme countries and leading to unsustainable debt paths and social failure.” A CEPR report in 2009 looked at all the IMF’s borrowing agreements, finding that 31 of 41 contained pro-cyclical policies that could lower economic growth.
At the annual IMF meetings in Tokyo, Colombia announced it would leave the voting bloc aligned with Brazil in favor of Mexico, reports Bloomberg. Brazil, a member of the BRICS countries, has been one of the most vocal advocates of IMF reform. An agreement to shift more voting rights to developing countries has been held up for years as the traditionally dominant European countries have resisted moving their voting shares more in line with their share of world economic output. Colombia’s Central Bank chief Dario Uribe commented on the move to Mexico’s voting constituency, “It’s a group where there’s a receptivity toward a country like Colombia, where there are great historical and commercial ties.”
Last week a “vulture fund” belonging to American Task Force Argentina, a lobbying group seeking to recoup the “full” value of Argentina’s defaulted bonds which were bought for cents on the dollar, detained an Argentine naval ship in Ghana to try and force repayment. The lobbying group lists some 40 members of their organization on their website, including many farmers associations, yet this weekend the Wall Street Journal reported that many of them had no idea how they became affiliated with the group. "We don't have anything to do with Argentina's debt,” Larry Matlack president of the American Agriculture Movement told the Journal.
- Written by Jake Johnston
The long-running dispute between Argentina and the “vulture funds” took a turn to the bizarre this week. “Vulture funds” buy up defaulted debt of developing countries for pennies on the dollar then use lawsuits and other means to attempt to force repayment of the full face value. Now, the vultures have become pirates, holding an Argentine naval ship for a $20 million ransom, Reuters reports:
A court in Ghana upheld as legal on Thursday the detention of an Argentine naval vessel seized under a court order by creditors pursuing the South American nation over its 2002 debt default.
Argentina declared a sovereign default a decade ago and now faces a raft of lawsuits in U.S. courts by bondholders seeking state asset freezes to recover the value of defaulted bonds.
The Libertad, a navy frigate with 200 crew, was detained in Ghana's eastern port of Tema on October 2 under a court order sought by NML Capital Ltd, an affiliate of the investment firm Elliott Management.
Elliot Management is run by billionaire Paul Singer, who has a long history of this sort of action. Singer took both Peru and Congo to court, eventually receiving at least $140 million for debt which he paid just a fraction of that for. Even the former head of Goldman Sachs called the vulture funds’ investment strategy of targeting poor countries immoral: “I deplore what the vulture funds are doing,” said Former Treasury Secretary Paulson to the House Financial Services Committee in 2007.
The backstory: in 2001 Argentina defaulted on some $81 billion (plus interest) of debt as a result of a severe economic collapse. Argentina has since reached agreement with holders of some 95 percent of this debt. Yet some “vulture funds” have refused to make a deal, seeking instead to use legal recourse to try to recoup the debt’s “full value”. Of course, these funds bought the debt for extremely low prices – in the case of NML, Bloomberg reported that they bought at least $182 million in debt for just 20-30 cents on the dollar. Of 15 bondholders who hold at least $25 million, nine of them are based in the Cayman Islands, including NML.
Nevertheless, they have enlisted the help of the U.S. congress to fight Argentina. The American Task Force Argentina, made up of many of the vultures, has spent over $3 million since 2007 lobbying against Argentina, while Singer himself has given over $1 million to Presidential candidate Mitt Romney. A “Stop VULTURE Funds Act” introduced in the 111th Congress by Rep. Maxine Waters never made it off the ground, and was not even introduced this legislative cycle. Meanwhile, Western Hemisphere Subcommittee Chair Connie Mack (R-FL) is the main sponsor of a bill designed to get Argentina to pay NML nearly $2 billion. While it is highly unusual for a bill to focus on a single country, it is not a surprise given that NML is Mack’s largest contributor. Fortunately, FiveThirtyEight gives Mack a 3 percent chance of winning the race for Bill Nelson’s Senate seat.
If the U.S. government wants to root out pirates in Africa, it should start with our own.
- Written by Mark Weisbrot
An Associated Press article dated October 9 states that Venezuela has
“ at least 2.4 million national government employees, making up 8 percent of the country's population. By comparison, the United States, with tenfold the population, has almost the same number of federal employees, at 2.7 million.”
If Venezuela really had 10 times as many public employees as the U.S., relative to its labor force, this would be amazing. However it is not true.
Venezuela actually has, according to the latest statistics, 2.49 million public employees – including all levels of government. With a labor force of about 13.5 million, this is about 18.4 percent of the labor force. (Labor force is a better denominator than total population because of different demographics between countries).
The U.S. as of September 2012 had 22 million public employees, or 14.2 percent of the labor force. Thus the difference in public employment between Venezuela and the U.S. is therefore about 4 percentage points.
One reason for the AP’s misleading comparison is that it does not take into account that most public employees in the U.S. (19.2 million of 22 million) are employed at the state and local level. In most other countries, including Venezuela, the reverse is true.
Of course the U.S. has a relatively low level of public employment compared to other high-income countries. France, Finland, Denmark, Sweden, and Norway all have public sector employment percentages in the 20s, with France at 22 percent and Norway at 29 percent.
In this article, the author is using Venezuela’s public employment to argue that Chávez had a big advantage over his opponent in the recent election. However this is not clear. Most of the wealth and income of the country still belongs to people who oppose the government, and several studies show that the majority of the media (pdf) was biased in favor of Capriles. Whether Chávez’s speeches on television could compensate for this overall media bias against him is not at all clear.
Political scientist Justin Delacour, who has studied media coverage of Venezuela for many years, argues that this article shows a considerable double standard on the part of AP. He writes: “I cannot recall one time in all my years of reading AP reports that these sorts of electoral advantages have ever been discussed by your newswire. It is only when a left-wing party acquires significant PR resources that your newswire is suddenly so concerned about fairness on the PR front in a country's electoral process.” He notes that most media in Latin America are biased in favor of right-wing or center-right parties, but that has not been an issue in AP reporting.
- Written by Mark Weisbrot
The New York Times coverage of Venezuela’s election must have been a disappointment to anyone who, even if they don’t like President Hugo Chávez of Venezuela, wanted to find out how he managed to win yet another election, this time by an 11 percentage point margin. In the two articles following the election, there was almost nothing about how people’s living standards had improved, or how that might have affected the election result. As I mentioned in this op-ed yesterday in the International Herald Tribune and New York Times, the election result is similar to the re-election of left governments throughout South America. In Venezuela, since the Chávez government got control over the oil industry, poverty and extreme poverty have been sharply reduced (see below), access to health care and education greatly increased (with college enrollment doubling and free tuition for many students), and four times as many people eligible for public pensions. (For a first hand view from the ground on what some of these things look like, see Lisa Sullivan’s report here; and for a nice review of some of the awful media reporting on the elections, see Keane Bhatt’s blog here ).
But the Times articles on the election result are about an “ailing and politically weakened winner facing an emboldened opposition that grew stronger and more confident as the voting neared.” (In most countries an 11 point margin would be considered a landslide). And it’s about how disaster must strike the economy soon. Hope springs eternal. I have challenged the “unsustainability” thesis in detail here. As is customary, yesterday’s article relies heavily on opposition sources, such as economist Ricardo Hausmann, for predictions of doom and gloom ahead. It is worth noting that Hausmann co-authored a paper claiming that the 2004 presidential recall referendum that Chavez won by a margin of 58-41 percent was actually stolen through fraud. Since the Venezuelan election process is one of the most secure in the world, he offered an unbelievable conspiracy theory as well as statistical evidence that turned out to be worthless. (See here, and links in here).
Hausmann also recommended a NYT op-ed published on Saturday, by the Venezuelan opposition blogger Francisco Toro. This is truly an opinion piece, as there are few facts; but unfortunately some of those facts are wrong. The author asserts that the Venezuelan government has been “less effective at reducing poverty than the Brazilian alternative.” But as can be seen in the table below, although the Workers’ Party government in Brazil has done very well in reducing poverty, Venezuela has done better during the same period. And these poverty rates measure only cash income; they do not count the value of free health care to the poor, which if included would show even more poverty reduction in Venezuela.
The author also asserts that “Venezuela’s child mortality and adult literacy statistics have not improved any faster under his government than they did over the several decades before he rose to power.” Leaving aside literacy, which is poorly measured, the second table below shows infant mortality for the 12 years before Chavez, compared with the 12 years of his administration. As can be seen, infant mortality declined somewhat faster during the Chavez years.
- Written by Dan Beeton
Pop star Lady Gaga visited WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange this week at the Ecuadorean embassy while in London, meeting with him for a reported five hours.
Perhaps Lady Gaga understands some things that seem to elude the majority of the media: Assange's importance as a defender of freedom of the press and freedom of information.
Assange remains at the embassy while the Ecuadorean government attempts to negotiate a solution to the stand off with Swedish authorities - who refuse to guarantee Assange would not be extradited from Sweden to the U.S., to face possible charges under the Espionage Act, despite appeals from the likes of Amnesty International - and the U.K. - which refuses to guarantee Assange safe passage.
- Written by CEPR
UPDATE 11:21: CEPR press release:
Chávez Re-Election Continues Trend of Left Governments Re-elected in South America
Economic Growth, Expansion of Welfare State Likely to Continue for Many Years
For Immediate Release: October 7, 2012
Washington, D.C.- Hugo Chávez’ re-election to another 6-year term shows that Venezuela, like the rest of South America, prefers governments of the left that have improved living standards and greatly reduced poverty and inequality, said Mark Weisbrot, Co-Director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) in Washington, D.C.
“Chávez is often portrayed as though he were from Mars, but really the similarities between what he has done and what his neighboring left governments have done are much greater than the differences,” said Weisbrot.
Contrary to many press reports, the vote was not close, as CEPR had predicted it would not be.
UPDATE 11:04: Henrique Capriles now making concession speech.
UPDATE 10:41: Official results: With 81 percent voter participation, Chavez - 54.43 percent; Capriles - 44.47 percent of the vote. (Remaining going to minor candidates.)
UPDATE 10:34 PM: RESULTS BEING ANNOUNCED NOW, HERE.
UPDATE 10:00 PM: Election monitors await the announcement of official results:
UPDATE 9:55 PM: An election monitor in Tachira state reports:
turnout here approached 90%, a tribute both to the CNE's preparation and organization, the dedication of the civil servants who spent long hours at the stations and, most important, to the Venezuelan people who are actively engaged in who leads their government. Despite the huge numbers, and the early difficulties with long lines and a couple of malfunctioning machines, no one reported any significant problems or concerns about the security of the process.
UPDATE 9:49 PM: An election monitor in Zulia state reports:
in Maracaibo [at] Unidad Educativa Nacional Privada Nuestra Senora del Pilar with 14 mesas and 7482 voters. This is our largest voting place. ...but was almost empty with vote at 70- 84%. Only minor problems with one machine eating paper receipts; one could be read the other one could not. All quiet.
X vs x with 4 null were results 388 voters 433 entitled to vote. They are now doing paperwork. The null votes were because people pressed the vote button without first pressing the candidate button. Pulling ballots out one at a time and reading them off while another woman is writing results on large form.
UPDATE 9:27 PM: An election monitor reports:
Just spent almost 2 hours at a school in Pq Altagracia, a few blocks from the Presidential palace, witnessing the closing of two mesas and audit (citizens' verification) of one. To ensure all the electronic votes exactly match the paper receipts reviewed by the voters and deposited in the boxes, a random selection of 54% of the 39,000 machines are audited in an open process with witnesses from both parties and, in our case, a group of 15-20 international acompañantes.
Venezuela has "fusion" voting, where a single candidate can run for any number of parties. Chavez is running for 12 parties, Capriles for 19. When you vote you press a picture of your candidate in the box of the party you support.
Right now our bus is taking us down streets packed w Chavistas blowing horns, setting off firecrackers and shouting.
We're on our way the CNE headquarters to hear Tibisay Lucena announce the results. Probably we'll be there for several hours.
UPDATE 9:20 PM: Some Venezuela observers are noting that Chavez campaign head Jorge Rodriguez apparently predicted the early release of an exit poll, via the ABC newspaper in Spain, that would show Capriles in the lead, and thereby give the opposition the pretext to claim fraud if the results do not turn out that way. As we have already noted, ABC ran such a story earlier today.
Deutsche Press Agentur reported Rodriguez's prediction on October 2. (H/T to Lee Brown of the Venezuela Solidarity Campaign).
- Written by Dan Beeton
The Carter Center released its pre-election report on the Venezuelan electoral process yesterday. The response from the U.S. media has, with the exception of a few wire service articles, been silence. Instead, papers such as the Los Angeles Times, New York Times, and Washington Times have, in recent days, raised the specter of possible fraud, government recrimination against opposition voters, and possible violence that could result from people not accepting the election’s outcome. The Washington Times, for example, began an article Thursday by reporting:
With Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez facing the most serious re-election challenge of his 14-year reign, international observers are bracing for the possibility of social unrest if the outcome is close when voters go to the polls Sunday.
“I think the probability of upheaval and protests increases the closer the vote gets,” said Christopher Sabatini, senior director of policy at the Americas Society and the Council of the Americas in New York.
A close vote count between Mr. Chavez and his fresh-faced challenger Henrique Capriles Radonski may trigger a street-level clash between viscerally opposed supporters of the two.
“There are rumors that Chavista armed organizations are ready to come down from the hills should Capriles win,” said Mr. Sabatini. “The other side is that if Capriles loses in a squeaker, his supporters have some pretty good basis to claim fraud.”
The New York Times, as we noted yesterday, interviewed an opposition voter who claimed to be afraid to vote for Capriles since it might put her future career in jeopardy – despite being perfectly willing to be cited by name in the Times article, and despite making her political inclinations very clear on social media.
The Los Angeles Times, meanwhile, reported yesterday:
For Capriles to win, many voters who lean in his direction will have to overcome fear that they will lose their jobs or benefits in the event of a government change, that there will be an increase in political violence if Chavez loses, or that the government somehow will find out they voted for Capriles and take retribution.
So what does the Carter Center say about the possibility of fraud, and ballot secrecy?
- Written by Mark Weisbrot
In a stunningly one-sided article two days before the Venezuelan election, the New York Times creates a frightening picture of a deteriorating society in which citizens are afraid to vote against the incumbent president, Hugo Chavez:
“I’m not going to take the risk,” said Fabiana Osteicoechea, 22, a law student in Caracas who said she would vote for Mr. Chávez even though she is an enthusiastic supporter of Mr. Capriles. She said she was certain that Mr. Chávez would win and was afraid that the government career she hopes to have as a prosecutor could be blocked before it begins if she votes the wrong way.
“After the election, he’s going to have more power than now, lots more, and I think he will have a way of knowing who voted for whom,” she said. “I want to get a job with the government so, obviously, I have to vote for Chávez.”
OK, so she is giving the NYT her name but afraid to vote in an election that international observers believe to be conducted by a secret ballot. Strange. This might have made an inquisitive reporter do a google search on her name.
He would have found this among dozens of opposition tweets:
Venezuela hay un camino ... 07-Oct hagamos de este dia un dia historico yfrog.com/obo6sxqj— Fabiana Osteicoechea (@Fabiana_OST) August 25, 2012
So, she tweets constantly against the government but is afraid to vote against it in an election process that Jimmy Carter said, a few weeks ago, was the best in the world.
The rest of the article is about as believable as this witness. For those who don’t follow the NYT coverage of Venezuela, for years it has not been very distinguishable from that of Fox News. Or the Washington Post. Hence the consensus of all Very Serious People on Venezuela that it is a scary, authoritarian place to live.
The article also pretends that Chávez has an advantage in the media; however the government has only a small portion of the media, with most remaining pro-opposition.
UPDATE (5:00pm): The Carter Center has told the media that fears of electoral fraud in Venezuela are unfounded.
- Written by Dan Beeton
Newsweek has a commentary piece this week by Venezuelan journalist Boris Muñoz which cites anonymous sources as suggesting that Hugo Chávez’s cancer is but a cleverly designed conspiracy meant to distract Venezuelans from the country’s problems:
As someone very close to Chávez told me (anonymously as he feared falling out of favor with the supreme commander), it was a welcome distraction from the wear and tear of years of failed policies. Chávez “has drawn attention away from the big problems of his administration such as its incompetence, corruption, and bureaucracy, and the nation’s criminal violence,” the source said. “He has created this dramatic scenario to ... seduce the masses because he knows that, terminally ill or not, this is his last chance.”
Indeed, even some members of his inner circle suspect that Chávez’s long battle with cancer is really an elaborate charade masterfully orchestrated in complicity with the government of Havana— and one that might win him yet another term, perpetuating his presidency for another six years.
Never mind for a minute the idea that someone “very close to Chávez” describes his administration as “incompetent” and “corrupt” – “members of his inner circle” suggest Chávez never had cancer at all! With the help of those ingenious Cubans, he successfully duped the Venezuelan people – and so many naïve journalists, including Dan Rather – into believing he was in a life and death struggle against illness, even appearing take on a more plaid complexion, and have his hair fall out! In publishing this article, Newsweek has moved into Weekly World News territory, ala stories such as “Dick Cheney is a Robot” or the harder to believe “Hillary Clinton Adopts Alien Baby.”
While considering this sinister plot, recall how derisively the media generally reacts to Chávez’s assertions regarding assassination plots and U.S. government subterfuge in Venezuela – even though the U.S. role in the 2002 coup, in which Chávez was removed from office is well documented.
Newsweek has never reported the Venezuelan government’s slashing poverty in half, cutting extreme poverty by 70 percent, or even Venezuela’s strong economic growth once the government got control over the oil sector. And Newsweek has barely reported (save for this 2004 article) on one of the most important stories in Latin America’s modern history, one which helps explain the region’s shift to the left: the historic and unprecedented economic failure from 1980 – 2000. But it has plenty of space for wild Hollywood-style conspiracy stories.
- Written by Mark Weisbrot
Some press reports have noted Venezuela’s economic growth lately, in looking at Chávez’s track record in the run-up to Sunday’s presidential election. For example, the Associated Press wrote that “the economies of Brazil, Chile, Peru and Argentina all have expanded more rapidly than Venezuela’s since Chávez took office in 1999, recording average growth between 3 and 5 percent a year.”
It is important to have a reasonable base of comparison. It is not reasonable, for example, to include the years 1999-2003 in looking at the Chávez government’s growth record. During these years, the government did not have control over the national oil industry; even worse, it was controlled by people who, according to the prominent Venezuelan opposition journalist Teodoro Petkoff, had a strategy of “military takeover.” Not only the military coup of 2002, but the management-led oil strike of 2002-2003 was devastating to the economy, inflicting a loss of about 29 percent of GDP.
For an analogy, imagine that in the U.S. the Federal Reserve were controlled by people who were trying to destroy the economy so as to topple the government. Clearly it would not be reasonable to hold the executive branch responsible for the resulting state of the economy.
However, for economists it would also not be fair to measure growth in Venezuela from 2003, since that would be measuring from the bottom of a deep recession.
A reasonable comparison would be to use 2004, since by that year the economy had recovered to its pre-recession GDP. By that measure, as seen in the table below, Venezuela has had decent growth. If compared to the countries cited by AP, Venezuela’s growth is significantly better than Brazil and slightly higher than Chile. Argentina and Peru are the outliers during this period, the fastest growing economies in the region. Mexico is the outlier at the low end, the worst performing economy in the region.
Of course the better measure would be per capita GDP growth, and Venezuela would do somewhat worse there by comparison because it has higher population growth than some of its neighbors. But the press doesn’t use that figure, and the point of this exercise is just to show that if we are going to evaluate economic performance under Chávez, it’s really not fair to include the 1999-2003 years.
For Venezuelans, another relevant comparison might be to the pre-
Chávez years. From 1980-1998, Venezuela was the worst-performing economy in South America, in a period during which the region suffered its worst long-term growth failure in a century. Per capita income actually fell by 14 percent, and inflation was much higher (33 percent annually) than during the Chávez years (22 percent average).
- Written by Sara Kozameh
Last week, my colleague and fellow-blogger Jake Johnston, wrote a blog post on the attacks to freedom of the press in Chile, pointing out that media reports and U.S. based human rights organizations often focus on attacks on the press in countries that have elected left leaders, but somehow fail to report on attacks on freedom of the press in other countries.
One would think that the media and human rights organizations would pay specific attention to possible attacks on freedom of the press in countries that have recently suffered breakdowns of the democratic process, particularly in cases where coup d’états have occurred, such as in Honduras three years ago, or more recently, Paraguay.
Hondurans continue to endure the harsh repercussions caused by the coup that ousted President Manuel Zelaya in June of 2009 that include widespread political repression, political assassinations and attacks on freedom of the press -not limited to the assassination of journalists- 25 of them since the coup to be exact.
So, after the parody of political impeachment, or the “parliamentary coup”, as others have called the ouster of President Fernando Lugo in Paraguay this past June, reporters and human rights organizations should have been more aware of incidents that could result in censorship and attacks on freedom of the press. Nonetheless, when workers at TV Pública, a state-owned public TV channel, denounced political persecution by the new Franco government after 27 of them were fired for having criticized the coup in June, U.S. media and human rights organizations did not seem to have taken notice. Nor did they take notice two weeks ago when the Union of Journalists of Paraguay (SPP) denounced threats, aggression and intimidation against two reporters, by President Franco and his brother and senator César Franco. In the run up to the April elections that are supposed to restore legitimacy to the government in Paraguay, the French organization Reporters Without Borders, which has noticed the attacks to freedom of the press in Paraguay since the coup, says that the climate is worsening and that pluralism in the press is likely to deteriorate.
The egregious attacks on freedom of the press in Honduras following its coup three years ago should make clear the need for international monitoring by the media and human rights organizations anytime that the breakdown of democracy becomes an issue. Let’s just hope that the situation in Paraguay improves, but in the case that it doesn’t, let’s hope that attention from the press and human rights organizations does.
- Written by Dan Beeton
It didn’t receive much attention in the international media, but an important report on the May 11 DEA-related shooting incident in Ahuas, Honduras, which killed four people and injured several others, was released at the end of August. Its conclusions and recommendations are consistent with many in the report that CEPR released, also in August (co-authored with experts from the human rights organization Rights Action): the U.S. DEA appears to have taken a lead -- not merely a “supportive” role -- in the operation; the “official” story presented by Honduran and U.S. officials has several important inconsistencies; and that the U.S. government should conduct its own, independent investigation of the incident (a thorough investigation, to be made public, looking at all the evidence – as opposed to the internal DEA investigation which does not seem to have gone anywhere). Notably, the report departs sharply from the conclusions reached by the official Honduran investigation, as recently reported to the Associated Press.
But the report’s significance lies not merely in its conclusions, but its source: is by the National Commission of Human Rights, a Honduran government agency that has been criticized for turning a blind eye to many human rights violations and for supporting the June 2009 coup d'etat. The report was issued under the leadership of human rights ombudsman Ramon Custodio, and his calls for an independent U.S. investigation were reported in the Honduran press (even if they were ignored by the U.S. media). The report is also important because it is based on interviews of the Honduran Tactical Response Team members involved in the May 11 operation – interviews which the CEPR/Rights Action researchers were not able to conduct.
The original report in Spanish is posted here; we have posted a translation to English here. It finds:
- "All members of the TRT have stated that they only receive orders from American superiors and that they don't report anything, neither before nor afterwards, to their legal Honduran superiors, given that they ultimately don't deal with orders or logistics of any sort."
- "The Honduran authorities have not been able to interview the FAST Team members of the DEA because they are unable to identify them, even though they have made statements to CNN."
- "The declarations of the police officers who participated in the operation are contradictory in various parts, both between themselves as well as with the declarations of the victims."
- The report mentions that, according to the TRT members, the automatic rifle and ammunition mentioned among the objects confiscated during the operation, were found not in the "drug boat" but in another pipante docked at the Landin.
- The report casts doubt on a key part of the TRT testimonies, stating that "A logical and reliable explanation has not been provided as to how the pipante with the victims, coming from Barra Patuca, was able to come close to the boat with the FAST and TRT personnel and the drugs, without difficulty given that one or two helicopters were flying over the boat to protect it and provide it with preventive security."
It is notable that the report makes reference to this CNN video, in which now-former DEA attaché in Honduras, Jim Kenney, explains his responsibility for the vetting and training of the TRT agents.
And here are some of the recommendations that the report makes:
- "CONADEH - in the most respectful way- requests that the Senate Judiciary Committee of the United States and the Judicial Committee of the House of Representatives of the United States of America begin an in depth investigation of the issues raised during this operation."
- "We advise the National Police and the Armed Forces to cease to allow foreigners to have direct command over our personnel again."
- Written by Stephan Lefebvre
The full Department of Justice Inspector General (DOJ/IG) report from the ‘Fast and Furious’ disaster was released on the 19th of September. Coming on the heels of the Caravan for Peace with Justice and Dignity, which ended its month-long campaign around the United States last a week earlier, it is timely to think about several present-day realities: the paralysis afflicting policy makers around the topic of gun control, the Obama administration’s doubling down on Drug War policies, and the ongoing violence that affects people in Mexico, the U.S. and many communities in Central and South America.
Our government plays a crucial role in facilitating gun violence in Mexico (as well as throughout the region and in the U.S. itself), both by refusing to push for sensible gun control laws and by failing to enforce the laws already in place. Between the calendar years 2007 and 2011, almost 70% of the 99,000 firearms that were recovered in Mexico and submitted to the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) were U.S.-sourced. U.S.-sourced here means that the firearms were manufactured in the U.S. or they were legally imported into the U.S. under the auspices of a federal firearms licensee (FFL).
These numbers are likely to be very low estimates, as they only count guns successfully confiscated and turned over to the ATF for tracking, and they indicate that the U.S. is a huge part of the problem. Rather than engaging in a serious review of current drug policy, the Obama Administration has focused on defending itself against allegations surrounding the “Fast and Furious” scandal, contributing to the paralysis that we have been seeing with policy makers around the issue of gun control, and even today this Administration continues to express enthusiasm for the War on Drugs in its current form.
When it comes to sensible gun control laws, it is clear that new laws are needed. Here is another excerpt from the DOJ/IG report:
It is legal for a non-prohibited individual in Arizona to purchase an unlimited number of firearms from an FFL at any time. It is also legal for a non-prohibited person to pay for firearms in cash and to then transfer, sell, or barter those firearms to a non-prohibited third party. (pp. 139-140)
It seems to me that ‘unlimited number of firearms’ is precisely what the movement towards sensible gun laws is trying to fight against—and if you have any doubt, consider that the 5 individuals in the Fast and Furious case purchased over 100 guns each, and the one with the most purchases bought 723 weapons!
- Written by Mark Weisbrot
Everywhere you look, there are people who are taking seriously the claim that Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez has a big media advantage over the opposition in the upcoming elections. The Committee to Protect Journalists, in their latest report [PDF] on Venezuela, states that “a vast state media presence echoes the government’s positions,” and refers to the government as having a “media empire.”
From the Wilson Center’s latest report [PDF], we read: “Media coverage is not even moderately balanced. . . . In television, the government’s predominance is overwhelming; it was estimated that by 2007 it controlled seven national television channels and 35 open community channels."
These statements are false and misleading, but they are adopted uncritically in almost all mainstream media coverage. In fact, state TV had about 5.9 percent of the audience that watches television in Venezuela in 2009-2010. These data were gathered by AGB Panamericana de Venezuela Medición S.A., a local affiliate of Nielsen Media Research International, and are probably as reliable as Nielsen ratings in the United States. The data were collected through equipment boxes placed in each home, measuring minutes of each channel watched. A representative sample of 1000 households was constructed and data were gathered over ten years.
Thus, the above statements are similar to claiming that PBS TV, the public TV in the U.S., dominates broadcast TV in the United States. Most of the major newspapers (e.g., El Nacional, El Universal) are also strongly against the government. According to CONATEL data, only about 14 percent of radio is publicly owned; and since there is more strongly anti-government radio in Venezuela than TV, the opposition almost certainly has more advantage in radio than in other media.
Chávez, of course, regularly does cadenas – speeches which interrupt regular TV programming. But it is difficult to judge whether these speeches can balance the overwhelming media bias against the government.
There are also polling data indicating that the private, opposition media’s dominance in Venezuela has a significant influence on political beliefs. For example, an Associated Press-Ipsos poll conducted in November 2006, just before the last presidential election, showed that “57 percent of respondents were at least somewhat concerned that people could face reprisals for how they vote,” with only 42 percent “very confident their votes would be kept secret.” This was a theme repeatedly transmitted through opposition media. In fact, there is a secret ballot and it is no more possible for the government to know how someone voted in Venezuela than it is in the United States, Germany, or Sweden.
The misrepresentation of the media is part of the ongoing gross misrepresentation of Venezuela throughout media and foreign policy circles, which has reached the point where almost anything can be said about Venezuela and remain unchallenged, so long as it is negative.
- Written by Jake Johnston
While media reports and U.S.-based human rights organizations tend to focus on attacks on the press in countries that have elected left leaders, the closing of La Nación in Chile has generated next to nothing from those some organizations and media outlets.
It was announced this week that La Nación, the 70 percent state-owned news outlet, would be closed. The print edition had already been shut down in 2010 after conservative president Sebastian Piñera took office. The state newspaper’s union issued a statement calling the move, “the culmination of an attack on press freedom” waged by Piñera, while adding that “Once again, the common people, the citizens, were shut out of the distribution of power and resources, this time regarding an historic publication.”
While Piñera cited economic reasons for closing the print edition, it seems unlikely that this was the only reason as, according to La Mostrador, La Nación had some $2 million in profits in 2011.
With the closing of La Nación, Chile’s written media is now almost entirely concentrated in the hands of two groups, El Mercurio Group (publisher of El Mercurio) and Copesa (publisher of La Tercera). The two media outlets, which were outspoken proponents of the 1973 coup that brought the Pinochet dictatorship to power, have received $5 million in government subsidies a year, in an agreement that dates back to the Pinochet regime. As Chilean journalist Francisco Martorell told Reports Without Borders last year, “This system, which had resulted in the disappearance of the opposition press, killed it off again after the return to democracy, although it had just barely been revived. To cap it all, there are now fewer print media in Chile than there were at the end of the dictatorship!”
Well, now there is one fewer, but don’t expect to hear much about it from the self-styled defenders of free speech.
- Written by Dan Beeton
CEPR’s lengthy report, “Collateral Damage of a Drug War,” continues to receive attention from the media and policy makers. The report is based on an on-the-ground investigation of exactly what happened on May 11, when four people were shot and killed and four others wounded in a joint U.S. DEA-Honduran counternarcotics operation in the Moskitia region of Honduras, and was co-authored by CEPR’s Alex Main with Annie Bird and Karen Spring of Rights Action, a human rights advocacy organization with decades of experience working in Central America.
The CEPR/Rights Action report is based on extensive interviews with survivors and eyewitnesses of the shooting and related events, as well as with U.S. and Honduran government officials, including U.S. Ambassador to Honduras Lisa Kubiske, and the then-DEA attaché at the U.S. Embassy in Honduras, Jim Kenney, as well as Honduran officials who took part in the autopsies and evidence gathering for the Honduran authorities’ investigation into the incident. The U.S. government, despite the admitted role of the DEA in the events, and the admitted use of State Department-titled helicopters in those events, has not undertaken its own investigation, nor has it taken any responsibility for the victims or their ongoing struggle to recover from the physical, mental and emotional wounds left over from May 11.
On Friday evening –a time when breaking news typically receives very little attention – the Honduran government released its own report on the events to the Associated Press. AP summarized the report’s findings: “that two victims of a shooting during a joint U.S.-Honduran anti-drug operation were not pregnant and none of the gunfire that killed anyone came from a law-enforcement helicopter…” and that “forensic tests show the bullets that hit the four people killed were fired horizontally, not from above. In addition, the slugs were from lower-caliber bullets used by M-16 rifles and not the heavier weapon mounted on the helicopter…”
The Honduran authorities’ findings, as reported by AP, depart from the evidence and the common points of the various eyewitness statements. In a lengthier follow-up article, I told AP’s Alberto Arce that the claims made by German Enamorado, chief of Honduras' Office of Human Rights are “simply…not credible, when confronted with forensic evidence and so much eyewitness testimony to the contrary.”