I enjoy reading Eduardo Porter’s columns in the NYT and usually learn a lot from them, but I think he has made a mistake in arguing that white workers have fared worse in the recession and recovery than African Americans. In his Wednesday piece, he included a chart showing employment among whites had actually fallen by roughly 700,000 since November of 2007, while it had risen by more than 2 million for both African Americans and Asian-Americans and by twice this amount for Hispanics. This seemed to suggest a radically worse labor market experience for whites than for other groups.
After several people asked me about this chart, I checked the change in the working age (ages 16–64) population for each group. The number of whites in this age grouping had fallen by more than 2 million between 2010 and 2015, while the number of African Americans had risen by 1.4 million and the number of Asians had risen by 1.7 million. I’m sure the number of Hispanics grew even more, but these data are on a different table. In other words, the differences in the number of people working by demographic group reflected less their differences in labor market outcomes than their different population trends.
Porter has a piece today responding to this issue, the headline of which tells readers, “across age groups, whites fared worse in employment rates.” The problem is that the data really don’t support this claim. Porter notes that the percentage of prime age (ages 25–54) white workers who were employed fell by 2.0 percentage points from November 2007 to November 2016. By comparison, “[l]ast month 74.5 percent of prime-aged blacks held a job, 0.3 percentage points more than in November 2007.”
While that would seem to suggest that African Americans had a sharply different experience from whites, this conclusion rests on comparing single months in a very erratic data set. If we take the first 11 months of 2016, we find that the EPOP for prime age blacks was 73.2 percent. This is down by 1.7 percentage points from the 74.9 percent average for the first 11 months of 2007. This is only slightly better than the performance of the EPOP for whites, and of course starts from a lower level.
The same problem arises with the comparison of the 55 to 64 age group.
“The employment rate of whites from the ages of 55 to 64 declined slightly — to 63.6 percent from 64.1 percent. By contrast, the employment rate of blacks, Hispanics and Asians increased.”
Taking the first 11 months of both years, the EPOP for African Americans declined by 0.7 percentage points, from 52.7 percent to 52.0 percent. This is actually slightly larger than the decline for white workers.
I am leaving Hispanics out, both because I don’t have immediate access to their EPOPs by age group and because their EPOPs are likely to follow a different pattern due to immigration flows. Immigrants who have difficulty getting a job are likely to leave and others will not come if they face dismal job prospects. Asian-Americans actually saw a sharper decline in prime-age EPOPs than whites, as Porter notes.
To be clear, I think Porter is right in seeing support for Trump as being to a substantial extent a response to bad economic prospects. But the economic prospects of working-class whites in the last decade were not notably worse than the prospects of working-class blacks. The difference in their voting patterns can be explained by the fact that working-class whites who feel they are being left behind by the economy can see hope in a white nationalist like Trump, working-class blacks, Hispanics, and Asian-Americans cannot.
I enjoy reading Eduardo Porter’s columns in the NYT and usually learn a lot from them, but I think he has made a mistake in arguing that white workers have fared worse in the recession and recovery than African Americans. In his Wednesday piece, he included a chart showing employment among whites had actually fallen by roughly 700,000 since November of 2007, while it had risen by more than 2 million for both African Americans and Asian-Americans and by twice this amount for Hispanics. This seemed to suggest a radically worse labor market experience for whites than for other groups.
After several people asked me about this chart, I checked the change in the working age (ages 16–64) population for each group. The number of whites in this age grouping had fallen by more than 2 million between 2010 and 2015, while the number of African Americans had risen by 1.4 million and the number of Asians had risen by 1.7 million. I’m sure the number of Hispanics grew even more, but these data are on a different table. In other words, the differences in the number of people working by demographic group reflected less their differences in labor market outcomes than their different population trends.
Porter has a piece today responding to this issue, the headline of which tells readers, “across age groups, whites fared worse in employment rates.” The problem is that the data really don’t support this claim. Porter notes that the percentage of prime age (ages 25–54) white workers who were employed fell by 2.0 percentage points from November 2007 to November 2016. By comparison, “[l]ast month 74.5 percent of prime-aged blacks held a job, 0.3 percentage points more than in November 2007.”
While that would seem to suggest that African Americans had a sharply different experience from whites, this conclusion rests on comparing single months in a very erratic data set. If we take the first 11 months of 2016, we find that the EPOP for prime age blacks was 73.2 percent. This is down by 1.7 percentage points from the 74.9 percent average for the first 11 months of 2007. This is only slightly better than the performance of the EPOP for whites, and of course starts from a lower level.
The same problem arises with the comparison of the 55 to 64 age group.
“The employment rate of whites from the ages of 55 to 64 declined slightly — to 63.6 percent from 64.1 percent. By contrast, the employment rate of blacks, Hispanics and Asians increased.”
Taking the first 11 months of both years, the EPOP for African Americans declined by 0.7 percentage points, from 52.7 percent to 52.0 percent. This is actually slightly larger than the decline for white workers.
I am leaving Hispanics out, both because I don’t have immediate access to their EPOPs by age group and because their EPOPs are likely to follow a different pattern due to immigration flows. Immigrants who have difficulty getting a job are likely to leave and others will not come if they face dismal job prospects. Asian-Americans actually saw a sharper decline in prime-age EPOPs than whites, as Porter notes.
To be clear, I think Porter is right in seeing support for Trump as being to a substantial extent a response to bad economic prospects. But the economic prospects of working-class whites in the last decade were not notably worse than the prospects of working-class blacks. The difference in their voting patterns can be explained by the fact that working-class whites who feel they are being left behind by the economy can see hope in a white nationalist like Trump, working-class blacks, Hispanics, and Asian-Americans cannot.
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Eduardo Porter used his column to point out that Donald Trump got support from many whites who felt that they were being left behind. While there is evidence to support this view, one item in the piece may have misled readers.
The column includes a table showing the change in employment since the start of the recession for white, African Americans, Hispanics, and Asians. While the latter three groups all had increases in employment of at least 2 million, employment for whites fell by almost 1 million.
This can be misleading since the main reason for the difference is that the number of working-age whites actually fell during this period, while the number of working-age people in these other groups rose. The Census Bureau reported that there were 125.2 million non-Hispanic whites between the ages of 18 and 64 in 2010. In 2015 this number was down to 122.9 million. By contrast, the number of non-Hispanic African Americans rose from 24.2 million to 25.6 million. The number of Asians in this age band rose from 10.1 million to 11.8 million. There was a considerably larger rise in the number of Hispanics over this period.
In short, this was a period of weak employment growth, but workers from all demographic groups suffered. The numbers in this piece give a misleading picture in implying that white workers suffered disproportionately.
Eduardo Porter used his column to point out that Donald Trump got support from many whites who felt that they were being left behind. While there is evidence to support this view, one item in the piece may have misled readers.
The column includes a table showing the change in employment since the start of the recession for white, African Americans, Hispanics, and Asians. While the latter three groups all had increases in employment of at least 2 million, employment for whites fell by almost 1 million.
This can be misleading since the main reason for the difference is that the number of working-age whites actually fell during this period, while the number of working-age people in these other groups rose. The Census Bureau reported that there were 125.2 million non-Hispanic whites between the ages of 18 and 64 in 2010. In 2015 this number was down to 122.9 million. By contrast, the number of non-Hispanic African Americans rose from 24.2 million to 25.6 million. The number of Asians in this age band rose from 10.1 million to 11.8 million. There was a considerably larger rise in the number of Hispanics over this period.
In short, this was a period of weak employment growth, but workers from all demographic groups suffered. The numbers in this piece give a misleading picture in implying that white workers suffered disproportionately.
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Cokie Roberts outlined the history of the Electoral College in a discussion in a Morning Edition segment this morning. At the end of the segment, she was asked whether she would favor getting rid of the Electoral College and instead just having presidents elected by the direct popular vote. (Donald Trump lost in this category by more than 2.5 million votes.)
Roberts said no, that she would keep the Electoral College. Strangely, her argument was that she wanted to enhance the importance of minorities. She claimed that the Electoral College made the minority vote very important in key swing states.
While this is true, a recent analysis by Andrew Gelman and Pierre-Antoine Kremp showed that swing states are whiter on average than the nation as a whole. The basic story is that several large uncontestable states, such as California, are disproportionately minorities, while several of the swing states, such as New Hampshire and Iowa, are overwhelmingly white. This means that a focus on the outcomes in swing states will tend to reduce rather than increase the focus on minorities.
It is also worth noting that if we ignored the likelihood that a state would be a swing state and just examined how the Electoral College skews the importance of votes, it also works to the disadvantage of minorities. The reason is that the states with small populations, like Wyoming and Montana, which are over-represented in the Electoral College, are overwhelmingly white. By this measure also, the Electoral College does not work to the benefit of minorities.
It would have also been worth mentioning the National Popular Vote drive. This is an effort to get states to agree to award their electors to the winner of the national popular vote. It would take effect as soon as states representing a majority in the Electoral College agreed to assign their electors based on the outcome of the popular vote. States that account for 165 of the needed 270 votes have made this commitment thus far. This is the most plausible path at present for turning to a direct popular vote for president. It would have been useful to mention it in a segment like this.
Cokie Roberts outlined the history of the Electoral College in a discussion in a Morning Edition segment this morning. At the end of the segment, she was asked whether she would favor getting rid of the Electoral College and instead just having presidents elected by the direct popular vote. (Donald Trump lost in this category by more than 2.5 million votes.)
Roberts said no, that she would keep the Electoral College. Strangely, her argument was that she wanted to enhance the importance of minorities. She claimed that the Electoral College made the minority vote very important in key swing states.
While this is true, a recent analysis by Andrew Gelman and Pierre-Antoine Kremp showed that swing states are whiter on average than the nation as a whole. The basic story is that several large uncontestable states, such as California, are disproportionately minorities, while several of the swing states, such as New Hampshire and Iowa, are overwhelmingly white. This means that a focus on the outcomes in swing states will tend to reduce rather than increase the focus on minorities.
It is also worth noting that if we ignored the likelihood that a state would be a swing state and just examined how the Electoral College skews the importance of votes, it also works to the disadvantage of minorities. The reason is that the states with small populations, like Wyoming and Montana, which are over-represented in the Electoral College, are overwhelmingly white. By this measure also, the Electoral College does not work to the benefit of minorities.
It would have also been worth mentioning the National Popular Vote drive. This is an effort to get states to agree to award their electors to the winner of the national popular vote. It would take effect as soon as states representing a majority in the Electoral College agreed to assign their electors based on the outcome of the popular vote. States that account for 165 of the needed 270 votes have made this commitment thus far. This is the most plausible path at present for turning to a direct popular vote for president. It would have been useful to mention it in a segment like this.
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The headline of a Washington Post article told readers:
“Trump is skipping his press conference to focus on his picks for agriculture and the VA.”
Of course, the Washington Post does not actually know why Donald Trump skipped his press conference. It knows why he said that he skipped his press conference. As the article itself suggests, the reason given for missing the press conference may not in fact be the real reason.
It would be helpful if the Post just reported what it knew to be true rather than implying that Donald Trump’s claims are in fact truthful. It also would have been useful if it had mentioned the purpose of the cancelled press conference. This was supposed to be the conference in which he disclosed his plans for his business empire while he is president. Trump claims that he will set up an arrangement that will prevent conflict of interest problems.
Thanks to Robert Sadin for calling this to my attention.
The headline of a Washington Post article told readers:
“Trump is skipping his press conference to focus on his picks for agriculture and the VA.”
Of course, the Washington Post does not actually know why Donald Trump skipped his press conference. It knows why he said that he skipped his press conference. As the article itself suggests, the reason given for missing the press conference may not in fact be the real reason.
It would be helpful if the Post just reported what it knew to be true rather than implying that Donald Trump’s claims are in fact truthful. It also would have been useful if it had mentioned the purpose of the cancelled press conference. This was supposed to be the conference in which he disclosed his plans for his business empire while he is president. Trump claims that he will set up an arrangement that will prevent conflict of interest problems.
Thanks to Robert Sadin for calling this to my attention.
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The supporters of the TPP and recent trade deals are licking their wounds and preparing their counter-attack. Rather than thinking about things like maybe structuring trade deals in ways that don’t disadvantage large segments of the population (yes, this can be done — have free trade for doctors and other highly paid professionals and reduce patent and copyright protection — all in my book, Rigged [it’s free]), they are focusing on new messaging for more of the same. The new messaging does not necessarily involve being truthful.
Hence, the Washington Post made a tool to show “how Donald Trump’s offshoring tariff might affect your shopping.” The tool is a calculator that shows how much Donald Trump’s promised 35 percent tariff on the re-importing of offshored products will raise prices. If you click on, it shows that the retail price of the product is increased by 35 percent. For example, the price of the Carrier air conditioner, that the manufacturer had planned to make in Mexico, would rise by $800 from the $2,400 price listed by Amazon.
The problem with this story is that the basis for the calculation in the Post’s “tool” is the retail price of the product. The basis for the tariff would be the wholesale price of the imported product, which would not include shipping costs, the markup of the retailer, nor many other costs that customers would be paying when they buy it from Amazon. As a ballpark number, the basis for the tariff would likely be in the neighborhood of half of the price that Amazon is listing.
I have said it many times before, and I’ll say it again here, Donald Trump’s plan for company specific tariffs for outsourced items is completely hare-brained. It would be easy to avoid and is hardly a substitute for serious trade policy. But this is not an excuse for making up stories to scare people. The way to have a serious debate on trade policy is to have a serious debate on the issues, not dumping manure on the people who disagree with you.
The supporters of the TPP and recent trade deals are licking their wounds and preparing their counter-attack. Rather than thinking about things like maybe structuring trade deals in ways that don’t disadvantage large segments of the population (yes, this can be done — have free trade for doctors and other highly paid professionals and reduce patent and copyright protection — all in my book, Rigged [it’s free]), they are focusing on new messaging for more of the same. The new messaging does not necessarily involve being truthful.
Hence, the Washington Post made a tool to show “how Donald Trump’s offshoring tariff might affect your shopping.” The tool is a calculator that shows how much Donald Trump’s promised 35 percent tariff on the re-importing of offshored products will raise prices. If you click on, it shows that the retail price of the product is increased by 35 percent. For example, the price of the Carrier air conditioner, that the manufacturer had planned to make in Mexico, would rise by $800 from the $2,400 price listed by Amazon.
The problem with this story is that the basis for the calculation in the Post’s “tool” is the retail price of the product. The basis for the tariff would be the wholesale price of the imported product, which would not include shipping costs, the markup of the retailer, nor many other costs that customers would be paying when they buy it from Amazon. As a ballpark number, the basis for the tariff would likely be in the neighborhood of half of the price that Amazon is listing.
I have said it many times before, and I’ll say it again here, Donald Trump’s plan for company specific tariffs for outsourced items is completely hare-brained. It would be easy to avoid and is hardly a substitute for serious trade policy. But this is not an excuse for making up stories to scare people. The way to have a serious debate on trade policy is to have a serious debate on the issues, not dumping manure on the people who disagree with you.
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This is really embarrassing, I’m having Robert Samuelson do my work for me. His column today pointed out that a Washington Post piece from last week may have misled readers on the amount of waste in the Pentagon’s operations.
That article referred to $125 billion in waste that was identified in an internal Pentagon report that was never made public. This figure is then compared with the $580 billion annual budget for the Defense Department.
The problem is that the $125 billion is a cumulative sum over a five-year period. While the piece does identify it that way, it is likely that many readers would be prone to compare the $125 billion in waste identified by the report with the annual budget, rather than taking the implied $25 billion annual figure. The latter figure would imply that just over 4.0 percent of total spending fell into this waste category, while the full $125 billion figure would be more than one-fifth of spending.
Samuelson was right to call attention to this issue. There is no reason the Post could not have been clear in putting these numbers in an apples to apples context, either highlighting the amount of money spent annually that is identified as waste or comparing the $125 billion figure to five-year spending.
Remember, the point is supposed to be informing readers.
This is really embarrassing, I’m having Robert Samuelson do my work for me. His column today pointed out that a Washington Post piece from last week may have misled readers on the amount of waste in the Pentagon’s operations.
That article referred to $125 billion in waste that was identified in an internal Pentagon report that was never made public. This figure is then compared with the $580 billion annual budget for the Defense Department.
The problem is that the $125 billion is a cumulative sum over a five-year period. While the piece does identify it that way, it is likely that many readers would be prone to compare the $125 billion in waste identified by the report with the annual budget, rather than taking the implied $25 billion annual figure. The latter figure would imply that just over 4.0 percent of total spending fell into this waste category, while the full $125 billion figure would be more than one-fifth of spending.
Samuelson was right to call attention to this issue. There is no reason the Post could not have been clear in putting these numbers in an apples to apples context, either highlighting the amount of money spent annually that is identified as waste or comparing the $125 billion figure to five-year spending.
Remember, the point is supposed to be informing readers.
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Paul Krugman told readers that intellectual types like him tend to vote for progressive taxes and other measures that benefit white working class people. This is only partly true.
People with college and advanced degrees tend to be strong supporters of recent trade deals [I’m including China’s entry to the WTO] that have been a major factor in the loss of manufacturing jobs in the last quarter century, putting downward pressure on the pay of workers without college degrees. They also tend to support stronger and longer patent and copyright protections (partly in trade deals), which also redistribute income upward. (We will pay $430 billion for prescription drugs this year, which would cost 10 to 20 percent of this amount in a free market. The difference is equal to roughly five times annual spending on food stamps.)
Educated people also tended to support the deregulation of the financial sector, which has led to some of the largest fortunes in the country. They also overwhelmingly supported the 2008 bailout which threw a lifeline to the Wall Street banks at a time when the market was going to condemn them to the dustbin of history. (Sorry, the second Great Depression story as the alternative is nonsense — that would have required a decade of stupid policy, nothing about the financial collapse itself would have entailed a second Great Depression.)
His crew has also been at best lukewarm on defending unions. However, they don’t seem to like free trade in professional services that would, for example, allow more foreign doctors to practice in the United States, bringing their pay in line with doctors in Europe and Canada. The lower pay for doctors alone could save us close to $100 billion a year in health care expenses.
None of this means that the plutocrats standing alongside Trump are somehow better for working class people. They have made it pretty clear that they intend to use his presidency to take everything they can from the rest of the country. But Krugman is engaging in some serious fanciful thinking if he thinks that intellectual types have in general been acting in the interests of the working class. (And, I suspect many do ridicule the behavior and lifestyles of the working class.)
Yes, all of this is talked about in my new book Rigged: How Globalization and the Rules of the Modern Economy Have Been Structured to Make the Rich Richer (it’s free).
Paul Krugman told readers that intellectual types like him tend to vote for progressive taxes and other measures that benefit white working class people. This is only partly true.
People with college and advanced degrees tend to be strong supporters of recent trade deals [I’m including China’s entry to the WTO] that have been a major factor in the loss of manufacturing jobs in the last quarter century, putting downward pressure on the pay of workers without college degrees. They also tend to support stronger and longer patent and copyright protections (partly in trade deals), which also redistribute income upward. (We will pay $430 billion for prescription drugs this year, which would cost 10 to 20 percent of this amount in a free market. The difference is equal to roughly five times annual spending on food stamps.)
Educated people also tended to support the deregulation of the financial sector, which has led to some of the largest fortunes in the country. They also overwhelmingly supported the 2008 bailout which threw a lifeline to the Wall Street banks at a time when the market was going to condemn them to the dustbin of history. (Sorry, the second Great Depression story as the alternative is nonsense — that would have required a decade of stupid policy, nothing about the financial collapse itself would have entailed a second Great Depression.)
His crew has also been at best lukewarm on defending unions. However, they don’t seem to like free trade in professional services that would, for example, allow more foreign doctors to practice in the United States, bringing their pay in line with doctors in Europe and Canada. The lower pay for doctors alone could save us close to $100 billion a year in health care expenses.
None of this means that the plutocrats standing alongside Trump are somehow better for working class people. They have made it pretty clear that they intend to use his presidency to take everything they can from the rest of the country. But Krugman is engaging in some serious fanciful thinking if he thinks that intellectual types have in general been acting in the interests of the working class. (And, I suspect many do ridicule the behavior and lifestyles of the working class.)
Yes, all of this is talked about in my new book Rigged: How Globalization and the Rules of the Modern Economy Have Been Structured to Make the Rich Richer (it’s free).
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In an article discussing the Trump administration’s attitudes toward unions, the Washington Post misrepresented so-called right-to-work laws.
“Some union leaders are worried that a Trump administration would attempt to introduce a national right-to-work law — allowing any employee anywhere to exempt themselves from participating in a union — and block unions from deducting dues from paychecks.”
Workers already have the option not to participate in a union. Workers cannot be compelled to join a union anywhere in the United States. They currently can be required to pay a representation fee in a workplace represented by a union. Under the law, a union is obligated to represent all the workers in a bargaining unit, whether or not they join the union. This means that all workers will benefit in the same way from the wages and benefits negotiated by the union. Also, the union is obligated to defend a worker in disciplinary matters or other individual issues even if they are not members of the union.
The issue is whether workers can be obligated to pay for this representation or have the option to get it for free. Twenty-six states now deny workers the right to negotiate contracts that require all workers to pay for the representation they get from a union. Apparently, some of those associated with Trump also want to prohibit workers from negotiating contracts under which the employer deducts union dues as a service to the union.
This is an issue about freedom of contract, where the government is limiting what sort of contracts unions can sign with an employer. It is not an issue about individual rights. Any worker who doesn’t like unions has the option to work at a workplace where employees are not represented by a union. Just as an employer can impose conditions on workers (for example, wearing a silly uniform or requiring workers to address customers in a particular way), current law allows contracts under which workers set conditions on employment for their co-workers. Apparently, people associated with Trump want to take away this right.
In an article discussing the Trump administration’s attitudes toward unions, the Washington Post misrepresented so-called right-to-work laws.
“Some union leaders are worried that a Trump administration would attempt to introduce a national right-to-work law — allowing any employee anywhere to exempt themselves from participating in a union — and block unions from deducting dues from paychecks.”
Workers already have the option not to participate in a union. Workers cannot be compelled to join a union anywhere in the United States. They currently can be required to pay a representation fee in a workplace represented by a union. Under the law, a union is obligated to represent all the workers in a bargaining unit, whether or not they join the union. This means that all workers will benefit in the same way from the wages and benefits negotiated by the union. Also, the union is obligated to defend a worker in disciplinary matters or other individual issues even if they are not members of the union.
The issue is whether workers can be obligated to pay for this representation or have the option to get it for free. Twenty-six states now deny workers the right to negotiate contracts that require all workers to pay for the representation they get from a union. Apparently, some of those associated with Trump also want to prohibit workers from negotiating contracts under which the employer deducts union dues as a service to the union.
This is an issue about freedom of contract, where the government is limiting what sort of contracts unions can sign with an employer. It is not an issue about individual rights. Any worker who doesn’t like unions has the option to work at a workplace where employees are not represented by a union. Just as an employer can impose conditions on workers (for example, wearing a silly uniform or requiring workers to address customers in a particular way), current law allows contracts under which workers set conditions on employment for their co-workers. Apparently, people associated with Trump want to take away this right.
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A NYT article that discussed Donald Trump’s conflict-of-interest problem because of his business empire somehow couldn’t find anyone who knew a way to do it without forcing him to risk selling it a large loss. Actually there are fun and easy way- to allow Donald Trump to quickly eliminate his conflict-of-interest problem without risking large losses. The article should have pointed out this fact to readers so they fully recognize how extraordinary Trump’s behavior is in ignoring his conflict-of-interest problem.
A NYT article that discussed Donald Trump’s conflict-of-interest problem because of his business empire somehow couldn’t find anyone who knew a way to do it without forcing him to risk selling it a large loss. Actually there are fun and easy way- to allow Donald Trump to quickly eliminate his conflict-of-interest problem without risking large losses. The article should have pointed out this fact to readers so they fully recognize how extraordinary Trump’s behavior is in ignoring his conflict-of-interest problem.
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