How Has AP Determined that Ecuador's Debt and Deficits are Unsustainable?

October 18, 2019

It made this assertion in two different articles last week, without attributing it to a source. The budget data from the I.M.F. do not seem to support this claim. (The numbers are all percent of GDP.)

While the deficits run in 2015 and 2016 were unsustainable, the deficit came down sharply in the next two years. The deficit run in 2018 and projected for 2019 could be sustained indefinitely. (Ecuador uses the dollar as its currency, so it must be able to borrow the money needed to finance its deficit in financial markets.)

Subject Descriptor

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

General government net lending/borrowing

-6.119

-8.232

-4.533

-0.949

0.022

General government structural balance

-6.714

-6.783

-4.020

-1.676

-0.012

General government primary net lending/borrowing

-4.688

-6.670

-2.415

1.541

2.659

General government gross debt

    33.798

    43.166

    44.617

    46.132

    49.199

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