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Economists Discover that Fed Bond Purchases Affect the BudgetDean Baker / February 23, 2013
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Labor Market Policy Research Reports, February 9 – 22, 2013CEPR and / February 22, 2013
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Latin America and the Caribbean
Killings Continue in Bajo Aguán as New Report Documents Abuses by U.S.-Trained Honduran Special Forces UnitAlexander Main / February 22, 2013
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The Family and Medical Leave Act at 20, Part 2Eileen Appelbaum / February 22, 2013
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The Post Pushes Trade Agreement in News Section, AgainDean Baker / February 22, 2013
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Someone Has to Tell David Brooks that Social Security and Medicare are Politically PopularDean Baker / February 22, 2013
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Privacy Concerns Would not Prevent Bank of America from Talking About Bank PolicyDean Baker / February 22, 2013
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WAPO Uses News Section to Talk About "Revenue-Bleeding Entitlement System"Dean Baker / February 22, 2013
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Latin America and the Caribbean
Washington Post, Miami Herald Issue Embarrassingly Erroneous Editorials on EcuadorJake Johnston and Dan Beeton / February 21, 2013
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Fix the Debt's Fuzzy MathDean Baker
The Nation, February 20, 2013
Dean Baker / February 21, 2013
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Both Duvalier and the UN Continue to Try to Dodge ResponsibilityCEPR / February 21, 2013
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Gender, Debt, and Dropping OutJohn Schmitt / February 21, 2013
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Latin America and the Caribbean
IMF Ignores Proven Alternatives With Recommendations to HondurasOn Friday, February 15, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that it had concluded its most recent Article IV consultation with Honduras. The Fund’s recommendations varied little from those it has offered many other countries in recent years: cut public spending, reduce deficits, reform pensions and depress wages.
The IMF regularly conducts Article IV consultations with almost all of its member countries—with Argentina, which since 2006 has refused to take part in the process, being one notable exception. The official reviews are a way for the Fund to present its analysis of each country’s economic prospects and to advocate for a set of reforms. While it is difficult to precisely assess the influence of the consultations, it has been noted that in many cases the recommended policies have been adopted against popular public opinion. And in countries that end up borrowing from the fund, these policies are often preconditions for receiving future IMF loans.
The Fund’s recommendations on Honduras diverged little from the policies it is pushing in many other countries. Below is a selection from the IMF’s brief (347-word, to be exact) Executive Board Assessment of its most recent consultation with Honduras:
Directors . . . underscored the need to tighten macroeconomic policies and press ahead with structural reforms . . .. [They] welcomed the planned reduction of the budget deficit in 2013, and urged early adoption of the measures needed to ensure this outcome and avoid further central bank borrowing or accumulation of domestic payments arrears. They called for sustained medium-term fiscal consolidation . . . [and] supported plans to restrain the public sector wage bill . . . and emphasized the importance of reducing energy subsidies . . .. Directors concurred that monetary policy should be tightened . . . [and] regarded plans to reform state-owned enterprises as critical to strengthen the fiscal position and support growth, and encouraged timely implementation . . . and welcomed the ongoing reform of public pension funds.
It is difficult to overlook how much this assessment resembles the Fund’s recommendations to European countries struggling to emerge from the global recession. CEPR co-director Mark Weisbrot and Senior Research Associate Helene Jorgensen recently released a paper analyzing 67 Article IV consultations for European member countries between 2008 and 2012, in which the authors found that the lending body was pushing a “one-size-fits-all” approach that often included pro-cyclical policy recommendations. In the paper Weisbrot and Jorgensen summarized their findings, in part, as follows:
This content analysis finds a consistent pattern of policy recommendations, which indicates (1) a macroeconomic policy that focuses on reducing spending and shrinking the size of government, in many cases regardless of whether this is appropriate or necessary, or may even exacerbate an economic downturn; and (2) a focus on other policy issues that would tend to reduce social protections for broad sectors of the population (including public pensions, health care, and employment protections), reduce labor’s share of national income, and possibly increase poverty, social exclusion, and economic and social inequality as a result.
CEPR and / February 21, 2013
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Does Dana Milbank Ever Notice the Unemployment Rate?Dean Baker / February 20, 2013
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Duvalier Hearing this Week Could be Historic, Despite U.S. ObstructionCEPR / February 20, 2013
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Letter to Sen. Portman: 'Entitlement Reform' Means Cuts to Social Security, Medicare BenefitsDean Baker / February 20, 2013
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The Family and Medical Leave Act at 20, Part 1Eileen Appelbaum / February 20, 2013