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Black Swans, Conspiracy Theories, and the Quixotic Search for Fraud: A Look at Hausmann and Rigobon’s Analysis of Venezuela’s Referendum Vote

September 2004, Mark Weisbrot, David Rosnick, and Todd Tucker

In this paper, CEPR responds to Hausmann and Rigobon’s study claiming electronic fraud in Venezuela’s August 15, 2004 recall referendum. It shows that they provide no evidence of fraud — a conclusion subsequently confirmed by an independent panel of statisticians selected by the Carter Center.

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