January 2011, Mark Weisbrot and Jake Johnston
This issue brief reviews a draft report [PDF] on Haiti’s November 28, 2010 presidential elections from the Organization of American States’ (OAS) “Expert” Mission – which recommends changing the result of the first round of the election. It finds the OAS Mission’s report to be methodologically and statistically flawed, and its conclusions to be arbitrary. The brief notes that over 1,300 tally sheets, or about six times the amount thrown out by the OAS, were missing or quarantined; and that these tally sheets would very likely have given a different result from that of the OAS mission. Also, the OAS Mission’s report is based on an analysis of just 919 vote tally sheets – without any reported statistical inference -- whereas CEPR counted and analyzed all 11,181 tally sheets from the first round of elections.