Crime and Insecurity Remain High as Critics Warn of Corruption and Unconstitutional Moves by Noboa Administration

Washington, DC — Close results in Ecuador’s first-round presidential elections on Sunday signal a growing shift in voter preferences to return to an era of stronger economic growth, reduced inequality, and greater security, analysts at the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) said today. Incumbent president Daniel Noboa and progressive challenger Luisa González were nearly tied with the most votes (around 44 percent each) among a field of 16 candidates, and will proceed to a runoff on April 13.

The National Assembly is projected to be closely divided, with González’s Revolución Ciudadana (RC) party controlling 64 seats to Noboa’s Acción Democrática Nacional (ADN) party with 66. The Indigenous, left-leaning Pachakutik party will have 8 seats, while the Christian Social Party will have 4. With 76 votes required to obtain a majority, it appears likely that the next legislature will be characterized by ad hoc coalitions in favor of or in opposition to either a Noboa or González administration.

“Despite Noboa’s advantage as an incumbent, he barely received more votes than González, and González has gained 11 percentage points since the 2023 election, which signals a strong shift in voter sentiment toward political change,” CEPR Director of International Policy Alex Main said.

Crime and insecurity have soared under the conservative governments of Guillermo Lasso (2021–2023) and Noboa, who took office in November 2023. Although the homicide rate is estimated to have dropped from 47 per 100,000 people to 38.5 over the past year, it remains extremely elevated as compared to 5.8 per 100,000 people in 2016 ― the last year of the Correa government ― as Ecuador has increasingly become a center for drug trafficking and other organized crime activity. Corruption scandals have implicated Lasso, who chose to resign rather than be impeached; Prosecutor General Diana Salazar; and other high-ranking officials.

Noboa implemented a series of states of emergency early in his term. But, despite a slight drop at the start of 2024, the homicide rate remains high and kidnappings and other crimes are commonplace ― a new development in Ecuador, which previously had avoided the kind of organized crime presence that has afflicted neighboring countries like Colombia. Human Rights Watch and other groups have documented torture and other abuses of prisoners rounded up in Noboa’s crackdowns, and the military’s recent forced disappearance of four Black children, who were later found dead, has rocked the country.

The economy under Noboa has been weak so far; the Central Bank projected less than 1 percent total GDP growth in 2024. By contrast, from 2007 to 2017 under the government of Rafael Correa, social spending doubled; poverty fell by over 41 percent; and average annual GDP grew by 4 percent.

Noboa has also supported the inclusion of investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) mechanisms in Ecuador’s “free trade” agreement with Canada, which will open Ecuador to being sued by Canadian mining and other corporations over projected loss profits due to environmental, labor, consumer, or other regulations or restrictions on corporate activities. Ecuador’s constitution prohibits ISDS in international agreements — a ban upheld by citizens in a referendum last April — and the Noboa family’s ties to the mining industry raise serious conflict of interest concerns.

Voter sentiment may also have been affected by widespread criticism of actions by Noboa that may violate the constitution. He has flouted constitutional provisions requiring him to temporarily transfer presidential power to the vice president, Verónica Abad, whom he has repeatedly sidelined, including by sending her abroad as ambassador to Israel.

While Noboa was deemed as the overwhelming favorite by financial markets, in no small part due to faulty polling which, on average, gave him a much stronger lead, Luisa González ended up winning a historic vote for her party — the best in a decade — despite Noboa’s electoral advantages. By refusing to step down as Ecuador’s constitution mandates, Noboa was able to remain president and use government-funded activities to campaign. In November, he also engaged in a state-funded charm offensive, issuing decrees with economic relief measures and launching a vaguely defined program offering around 80,000 young people $400 per month for three months. He additionally benefited from the complicity of state oversight institutions, such as the CNE, TCE, and Constitutional Court, which have been slow to respond to his unconstitutional actions — when they have chosen to act at all.

“It should be no surprise that in the current high-crime, deeply insecure, and economically anemic context in Ecuador many voters are motivated to opt for Luisa González, who has campaigned heavily on the strong economic and security record of Rafael Correa’s two terms,” Alex Main said. “Noboa is facing a much more challenging run-off election this time around than in 2023.”

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