Ecuador Elections Live Blog

Ecuadorians go to the polls Sunday in what is expected to be a close runoff election between incumbent president Daniel Noboa and left-leaning challenger Luisa González. Polls show the two candidates in a statistical tie, with some polls giving González a slight lead and some showing Noboa ahead. Amid multiple crises including violent crime rates, a shrinking economy, and an ongoing energy crisis, many see this election between two candidates with starkly different political visions as possibly a defining moment for the country’s future.

CEPR has been closely tracking developments in Ecuador (see our Ecuador News Round-Ups and other Ecuador-related content here) and CEPR analysts Francesca Emanuele and Pedro Labayen Herrera are currently monitoring events on the ground in Quito. Together with US-based colleagues, they will be providing live updates on the election throughout the day on Sunday. We will also be monitoring the official electoral vote count as results come in after polls close.

Over the last few weeks, CEPR has met with Ecuadorian electoral experts, political scientists, journalists, constitutional lawyers, human rights advocates, and politicians from various parties, including Noboa’s party — National Democratic Action (ADN, by its Spanish initials) — and González’s party — Citizens’ Revolution (RC). While the views of these individuals have often clashed, most of those interviewed have noted a high level of political polarization during this election and see a risk of political instability and violence if the results are very close.

Noboa and González on Key Campaign Issues

Daniel Noboa, the country’s youngest-ever president and the son of Ecuador’s wealthiest businessman, has portrayed himself as a forward-looking candidate of change, in rupture with the traditional political class. Nevertheless, his track record thus far, and his current policy proposals, suggest that if elected he’s likely to continue implementing the neoliberal economic and social agenda of his immediate predecessors, Lenín Moreno and Guillermo Lasso. Meanwhile, González — who could be Ecuador’s first female president — has fully embraced the legacy of exiled former president Rafael Correa, under whom she served as general secretary of the presidency. Her campaign slogan, “Revive Ecuador,” is a clear reference to the economic, social, and institutional progress achieved during Correa’s 10 years in office (2007–2017), and the country’s rapid decline since.

Security

This is the number one issue for voters, as Ecuador’s homicide rate has skyrocketed from 5.8 per 100,000 people in 2017 to 50.7 homicides per 100,000 today. Noboa took a hard line from the beginning of his presidency, declaring an internal armed conflict and deploying the military for some law enforcement functions. Following numerous allegations of abuses by Ecuadorian security forces — including dozens of forced disappearances — Noboa has been strongly criticized by human rights defenders for encouraging impunity for state violence, not least because of his multiple offers of preemptive pardons for security forces. He has also promoted the involvement of foreign security forces, particularly from the US (see below). González has also adopted a “zero tolerance” hard line on crime but, in keeping with her political movement’s fervent defense of Ecuadorian sovereignty, has rejected involving foreign security forces. She has emphasized addressing the root causes of crime through social spending directed at poverty and unemployment. González has also promised to reinstate security and justice institutions created during the Correa era and subsequently dismantled during the Moreno administration (2017–2021). She has pledged to root out corruption and malfeasance in the judiciary and the public prosecutor’s office, which has been accused of engaging in politically motivated persecution of left-wing politicians, including Correa and the Indigenous leader Leonidas Iza. González sparked controversy on April 9 by announcing plans to establish “peace managers” — local community assemblies funded by the state to support citizen security initiatives and collaborate with the police. Despite her saying that members of these assemblies would be unarmed, it has not stopped critics from claiming this would lead to the creation of gangs.

Economy

In recent years, Ecuador’s economy has stagnated; last summer the country entered a recession. Poverty and unemployment have surged, stoking the highest level of out-migration in over 15 years. In response, González has committed to significantly expanding access to basic services like health care; investing in renewable energies; and funding microcredit programs for small, women-owned enterprises; among other proposals. In order to secure the fiscal space to advance these policies, she says she would renegotiate the government’s current “unfair” loan agreement with the IMF, which calls for major public spending cuts.

Noboa, meanwhile, has embraced an unabashedly neoliberal agenda. During his time in office, he has negotiated a trade agreement with Canada that would include controversial investor protections, raised the country’s regressive value-added tax, and attempted to privatize Ecuador’s largest oil field. In April 2024, he held a popular referendum proposing reforms that would have reversed labor protections and repealed a constitutional prohibition on entering agreements with pro-corporate international arbitration provisions. Although other referendum measures were approved, these neoliberal proposals were roundly rejected.

Foreign Policy

Noboa has centered the US in his foreign policy approach (see “The US Factor” below), while González seeks greater independence from the US and supports deepening ties with Latin American neighbors. In March she met with President Lula of Brazil and the progressive, newly elected president of Uruguay, Yamandú Orsi; in February she received the endorsement of President Sheinbaum of Mexico, which suspended bilateral relations with Ecuador’s government following Noboa’s decision to order an illegal raid of Mexico’s embassy in Quito to capture an RC politician who had received asylum there. The election comes as the global economy is being rocked by the Trump administration’s chaotic tariff approach to the rest of the world, and as various countries look to strategize and coordinate their responses — as leaders including Lula and Sheinbaum sought to do at this week’s CELAC meeting.

Developments Since the First Round

The results of the first round of the election, on February 9, defied polls predicting that Noboa would have a wide margin of victory, potentially even winning in the first round. Instead, the final results gave Noboa, with 44.17 percent, only a sliver more voter support than González, with 43.97 percent, among a field of 16 candidates. González is expected to benefit from what could be a decisive endorsement from Leonidas Iza of CONAIE, Ecuador’s largest Indigenous organization. Iza came in third in the first round, receiving 5.25 percent of votes.

Soon after the first round, Iza indicated that he would likely throw his support behind Gónzalez, characterizing the runoff as a choice between “social democracy” and “neofascism.” On March 30, the political arm of CONAIE, Pachakutik, endorsed Gónzalez’s candidacy after she signed an agreement committing to a set of Indigenous demands, including the adoption of a security policy respectful of human rights, a halt to further expansion of oil fields, and the pursuit of prior and informed consultation of Indigenous communities regarding development projects in their territories.

Earlier this week, Gónzalez received the endorsement of right-wing former presidential candidate Jan Topic after offering him the position of Minister of Interior in the event of her victory. Topic, a French Foreign Legion veteran nicknamed the “Rambo of Ecuador,” was disqualified from running in the presidential election following a controversial ruling by the Electoral Disputes Court earlier this year. Given Topic’s public support for Salvadoran president Nayib Bukele’s hard-line, human rights-infringing security policies, as well as his past offer to oversee Noboa’s security strategy, his involvement in a future Gónzalez government is likely to be met with strong resistance from human rights groups and sectors within the Indigenous movement.

Noboa has used the power of the presidency to bolster his image and leverage potential US support to give himself an edge (see “The US Factor” Below), but he has been at the center of several major scandals since the first round, some of which only seem to be growing, and that could sway voters away from him:

What Are Noboa’s Connections To Cocaine Trafficking?

The Colombian media outlet Revista Raya reported March 26 on several Noboa Trading Company banana shipments in which Ecuadorian police found bricks of cocaine, sometimes barely concealed after the containers were opened. The report, which is based on police documents and includes various photos, also notes that a Noboa Trading contractor arrested multiple times in cocaine busts, José Luis Rivera Baquerizo, emerged unscathed. One of his lawyers was Edgar José Lama Von Buchwald ― at the time an attorney for, and advisor to, then-legislator Noboa, and now Health Minister in the Noboa administration.

As Raya and other outlets have noted, Noboa Trading has a “closed system” from harvest to point of shipping, meaning that there must be involvement in drug trafficking at some level by some individuals working for the company. This raises the questions: how high up does the involvement go, and who ultimately is responsible?

The Noboa Trading scandal became even more serious when investigative reporter Claudia Jardim, who previously revealed evidence of Noboa’s offshore assets (illegal for a public office holder to have, under Ecuadorian law), reported on another link between President Noboa and the cocaine busts. Jardim’s report, which was first published in Publica and subsequently covered widely in South American media, shows that Noboa also is part owner of an offshore company based in Panama, Lanfranco Holdings, which is majority shareholder of Noboa Trading. Noboa initially denied having any direct connection to Noboa Trading live on TV during a presidential debate.

“Vicarious Violence”

Noboa is also subject of serious allegations from his ex-wife, Gabriela Goldbaum, who claims that Noboa has used their young daughter to hurt Goldbaum, in addition to many lawsuits that Noboa has filed against her and her family. Goldbaum has described the abuse as “vicarious violence,” a form of gender-based abuse in which the abuser uses children or others to emotionally harm a partner or former partner. Goldbaum alleges that Noboa has used the full power of the presidency to bear in his retaliatory actions against her and those she loves, including her father, and she has worked with legislators on a bill that would criminalize “vicarious violence.”

Noboa Benefited from the Smearing of the RC for the Villavicencio Murder in the 2023 Election

On April 8, Veronica Sauraz, the widow of assassinated 2023 presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio, posted a video on social media claiming that she had been misled and manipulated into casting blame on the RC for the murder of her husband. In the video, which has gone viral, Sauraz alleges collusion between Prosecutor General Diana Salazar and Noboa, since the claims that RC may have been behind the murder are believed to have helped lead to González’s 2023 defeat.

Sauraz’s comments provide further confirmation of reporting by Drop Site News, The Intercept Brasil, and others that leaked texts between whistleblower former legislator Ronny Aleaga and Salazar show a pattern of corruption and politicization of criminal cases aimed at harming the RC and the correísta movement.

Noboa’s Bad Marks on the Two Biggest Issues in the Election

A new YouGov poll, commissioned by CEPR, shows a majority of Ecuadorians giving Noboa bad marks on a number of important areas, including key electoral issues: the economy, and security. Sixty-one percent of Ecuadorians polled said they did not believe that their economic situation, nor their security, had improved since Noboa has been in office. A majority also said that they believe the Ecuadorian economy overall has not improved under the Noboa administration.

In addition, most reported that:

• they believe that Noboa has used the office of the presidency to advance his family’s business interests;
• Noboa has not done enough for communities affected by a massive oil spill March 13 in the province of Esmeraldas, where half a million people lost access to potable water as a result;
• Noboa broke the law by not taking a leave of absence to campaign in the election’s first round;
• Noboa’s actions to sideline his elected vice president, Veronica Abad, and remove her from the vice presidency, are politically motivated;
• they opposed the Noboa government’s raid on the Mexican embassy a year ago in order to apprehend former vice president Jorge Glas, to whom Mexico had granted asylum;
• and they oppose Noboa’s efforts to privatize the Sacha oil field.

A plurality said they do not believe that Noboa has disposed of offshore assets in tax havens.

The US Factor

Noboa, meanwhile, has attempted to use his relationship with the Trump administration to nail down some last-minute deals that could put him over the edge in Sunday’s vote. He has offered a US military presence on the environmentally fragile Galapagos Islands, widely considered an appealing prospect to the US government, which has not had a military base in Ecuador since before Rafael Correa’s presidency and which previously relied on the Colombian government to be a key military ally in the region.

Noboa has also contracted Erik Prince, the founder of private security company Blackwater, to go along on police raids on “narco gangs.” Prince is the brother of Betsy DeVos, Secretary of Education in the first Trump administration, and is believed to have helped broker an agreement with Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele to have deportees from the US held at El Salvador’s notorious “Terrorism Confinement Center.” Prince has said that “special forces” would be going to Ecuador as well, without providing details spurring speculation that such “forces” may in fact be his mercenaries. Prince has also campaigned in favor of Noboa, claiming baselessly that the RC is funded by the Maduro government in Venezuela.

In what was widely seen as an attempt to bolster his electoral chances, Noboa flew to Florida on March 28, saying he would meet with Trump. Weeks later, it is unclear as to whether a substantive meeting actually took place. While Noboa did post a photo of himself and First Lady Lavinia Valbonesi standing with Trump, this was the only evidence offered that the two leaders met. Neither the White House nor Noboa administration officials would confirm the meeting nor offer details when asked by reporters, and such a meeting never appeared on Trump’s daily schedule. That Ecuador was not spared new 10 percent tariffs from the Trump administration has contributed further to claims that Noboa’s efforts to cozy up to Trump have flopped — at least for now.

On April 9, 14 members of the US Congress sent a letter to Secretary of State Marco Rubio voicing concern that Noboa might not recognize the election results if he narrowly loses. Noboa alleged, without evidence, that there had been fraud in the first round (despite his first-place finish), and earlier this month, he reportedly said that he would stand by the election results if there is not evidence of “fraud” and strongly implied fraud could occur, which leaves him a lot of wiggle room to reject the outcome.

González, meanwhile, has been smeared, with Noboa alleging ― without evidence ― that narcos bolstered her support in the first round by threatening people into voting for her; and with Erik Prince and others making outlandish and misogynistic claims about her relationship with former president Correa. The smears fit a pattern; Correa himself has been effectively defamed as “corrupt” for his past conviction for using “psychic influence” to sway policymakers (now the subject of a new documentary). Other RC politicians and officeholders have similarly been demonized in traditional and social media. And González has been subjected to much redbaiting as well, with Noboa suggesting that González would “bring back … the old politics” and “bad habits of dictatorships like Maduro’s, or of autocratic regimes such as Iran or Syria,” all which he said González supports.

Noboa has also targeted González’s areas of strong support (along the coast, especially) with material support in what many see as a transparent attempt to pull votes from González.

Read our latest Ecuador News Round-Up for more context ahead of the elections.