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Preview: What to Expect in the November Jobs Report
The big questions will be whether wage growth has slowed to a pace consistent with the Fed’s inflation target and whether job growth has slowed to a sustainable pace.
Publications
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Lower than Expected Consumer Price Index Bolsters the Case for Fed Pause
Not only did the Consumer Price Index (CPI) come in slightly lower than expected, we are seeing no evidence that inflation is becoming embedded in services, as many had predicted.
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Preview: What to Look for in the October Consumer Price Index
There is evidence of falling inflation in many areas of the economy, but a high overall and core rate is likely in October.
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Job Growth Remains Strong as Wage Growth Settles Within Inflation Target
The economy added 261,000 jobs in October Perhaps most importantly, it seems wage growth is settling down to a level consistent with the Fed’s 2.0 percent inflation target.
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Preview: Did Wage Growth in October Stay at a Noninflationary Pace?
If wage growth remains moderate in the October data, there is a solid case that the Fed’s work is done.
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Inflation Persists as Rents, New Vehicle Prices Drive 0.6 Percent Rise In Core CPI
Reports from retailers indicate we should see more areas with price declines this fall, but we have been waiting on this for a while.
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Preview: What to Look for in the September Consumer Price Index
We are likely to see another good overall CPI number, even if the core index will still be higher than the Fed wants.
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Job Growth Slows to 263,000 in September, Wage Growth at 0.3 Percent, Again
Wages have grown at a 0.3 percent rate for the last two months; a pace consistent with the Fed’s inflation target.
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Preview: Jobs, Wages, and Hours – The Big Three Items in September
In a best-case scenario, we will see a picture of a labor market that looks like 2019, with the economy near full employment, but wages increasing at a more moderate pace.
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Price Increases Persist Despite Supply Chain Progress
The overall Consumer Price Index rose 0.1 percent in August, core was up 0.6 percent; up 8.3 percent and 6.3 percent year-over-year, respectively.
