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Preview: What to Look for in the August Consumer Price Index
If the CPI is zero or a small negative in August, it will strengthen the case for pausing the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes.
Publications
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Economy Adds 315,000 Jobs in August, but Unemployment Rises to 3.7 Percent
The index of aggregate hours fell by 0.1 percent in August.
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Preview: Will Job Growth Finally Slow?
Two big questions for Jobs Day: “Is job growth slowing to a sustainable pace?” and “Is wage growth falling back to a more normal rate?”
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Plunging Gas Prices Lead to Flat CPI, Big Jump in July Real Wages
The July Consumer Price Index data are a mixed picture. The plunge in gas prices means money in people’s pockets, but food prices are still rising rapidly.
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Preview: What to Look for in the July Consumer Price Index
Inflation in rental components increased rapidly in recent months. The Fed’s interest rate hikes had a direct impact on house sale prices, but it is unclear how or when it will impact rents.
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Economy Adds 528,000 Jobs as Unemployment Ticks Down to 3.5 Percent
The good news is that all the reports about workers’ wages not keeping pace with inflation were mistaken. The bad news is that wages are growing at a pace that exceeds the Fed’s 2.0 percent inflation target.
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Preview: Will Job Growth Remain Strong in a Slowing Economy?
The most important question is if wage growth continuing to moderate. If wage growth stays the same or slows further, it will mean the Fed’s work is largely done.
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Soaring Gas Prices Pushed Inflation to 1.3 Percent in June
It is hard to feel good about this report, but with wage growth slowing sharply in the last six months to around 4.0 percent, it’s hard to see how an inflation rate north of 9.0 percent can be sustained.
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Preview: What to Look for in June Consumer Price Index
There are many data points indicating inflation will be slowing. The question is, how much of this will show up in the CPI and when?
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Private Sector Employment Passes Pre-Pandemic Level, Wage Growth Moderates
Wage growth continues to moderate, alleviating concerns about a wage-price spiral.
