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Economy Adds 531,000 Jobs in October; Unemployment Falls to 4.6 Percent
The rise in the index of aggregate hours since July is equivalent to adding 498,000 private sector jobs a month
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The rise in the index of aggregate hours since July is equivalent to adding 498,000 private sector jobs a month
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Continuing strength in the labor market; the unemployment rate fell sharply in the last two months, and wages are rising rapidly.
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The overall picture is still transitory with the overall CPI up 0.4 percent, and the core just 0.2 percent.
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We should expect a rise in the core index of around 0.3 percent.
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The index of aggregate hours rose 0.9 in September, the largest rise since March.
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It seems likely that we are on a slower employment growth path than in the spring and early summer. Job growth is likely to be in the 300,000 to 400,000 range.
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One-time declines held down inflation in August, but will likely get back to around a 2.5 percent rate in the core. When supply constraints relax, lower car prices will dampen inflation.
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The core index is likely to show the same 0.3 percent rise as in July, with the overall CPI likely pushed somewhat higher by rising food prices.
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The average hourly wage for production and nonsupervisory workers in leisure and hospitality grew at a 23.7 percent annual rate in the last three months compared with the prior three.
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Given the sharp drop in the number of unemployed workers on temporary layoff, and the unusually high share of long-term unemployment, we are likely to see job growth closer to 500,000 than the extraordinary pace of the last three months.