Publications

Any honest analysis of the country’s GDP must average the first two quarters of the year together, since the economy actually shrank in the first quarter.

We should expect to see moderate inflation in the upcoming report, but we will likely to see the beginnings of the impact of Trump’s tariffs.

The first Trump administration did nothing on infrastructure. The second Trump administration might wind up being worse, since it is working to kill infrastructure projects that are desperately needed. 

While the topline numbers in the latest jobs report are positive, there are signs of concern about the future course of the labor market.

The June 2025 jobs report is expected to show slower job growth, rising unemployment, and weakening wage gains, signaling a softening labor market despite historically low jobless rates.

Senator Lankford claims Medicaid cuts will shift recipients to employer-based coverage, but in reality, millions of low-wage workers—especially in industries like restaurants and construction where such benefits are rare—are likely to lose health insurance altogether.

So far there has been limited evidence to date of the impact of tariffs on inflation. That may start to change with the upcoming May report.

While the overall jobs picture continues to be positive, there are some troubling signs: Growth is heavily concentrated in healthcare, and the labor market for young people is showing weaknesses.

Recent labor market data suggest modest but broad-based weakening, marked by slower job and wage growth, rising unemployment among young and Black workers, and softening consumer demand.

When the administration ended a resiliency grant program, it claimed the funding pushed a “political agenda.” Is there any evidence that this is true?