Publications

The April 2025 CPI is expected to show modest overall inflation, with falling gas prices offset by rising food, vehicle, and medical costs, while early effects of new tariffs and slowing rental inflation begin to reshape broader price trends.

Strong job growth and low unemployment are both good signs about the labor market, but this report is the calm before the storm. The effects of tariff-induced price increases or shortages will likely appear in the May report.

Surging imports in the first quarter of 2025 led to the first quarter of negative growth in three years — a sharp turnaround from the 2.5 percent growth rate of 2024.

There are clearly visible headwinds in various economic indicators– it remains to be seen if they will have an impact on the labor market.

The first quarterly GDP report under Trump shows early economic impacts from anticipated tariffs, slowing productivity growth, waning factory construction, and heightened uncertainty about future growth, signaling a shift away from the pandemic recovery pattern and raising recession risks.

The stagnant subminimum wage means that customer tips pay the lion’s share of hourly wages to tipped workers.

The long stretch of the slowing of inflation over the last two years seems to be over. The question is how much the Trump administration’s policies will have an impact.

The strong job growth reported for March indicates the labor market is still solid, but there are some grounds for concern.

The Trump administration’s economic and political upheavals have yet to show up in a big way in the labor market data. March may be a turning point.

The attack on the federal workforce is not about “efficiency.” It is a deliberate plan to deprive traditionally underserved communities of a route to economic security.