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Why Bahar and Hausmann Tell Us Nothing About Venezuelan Migration Flows to the United States

Why Bahar and Hausmann Tell Us Nothing About Venezuelan Migration Flows to the United States

In a widely circulated paper, Dany Bahar and Ricardo Hausmann claim that sanctions on the Venezuelan economy do not lead to greater migration flows to the United States. This paper shows that their conclusions rest on a serious methodological mistake: testing for a long-run relationship through a misspecified cointegration in first-differences. This mistake invalidates their statistical approach and findings.

By Francisco R. Rodríguez, Giancarlo Bravo