One of Donald Trump’s favorite claims about the economy is that he has brought us an unprecedented boom in investment, and especially in factory construction. He constantly talks about the $18 trillion in new investment he has secured for the country, and how everyone is building factories here. 

While anything can happen tomorrow, there is zero evidence of this investment boom to date, and factory construction is going the wrong way fast. As some of us (not major news outlets) have pointed out, there was a massive factory construction boom under Biden, with construction peaking in 2024 at more than twice its pre-pandemic level in the third quarter of 2024. This boom was directly connected to the major bills of the Biden presidency: the infrastructure bill, the CHIPS Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act.

Since then, factory construction has fallen rapidly. The May figure was down almost 25% from the 2024 peak. All politicians exaggerate their accomplishments, but with Trump we have a president celebrating a boom that exists only in his head. In reality, factory construction under his watch has been a massive bust.