Publications

While short-term economic data may appear similar, key differences in inflation, labor market strength, affordability pressures, and long-term policy choices suggest the Trump and Biden economies are meaningfully different.

The new anti-fraud push led by JD Vance is portrayed as politically driven, relying on exaggerated claims that don’t align with the actual scale of the federal budget or national debt.

Like the housing crash, today’s AI bubble driven by inflated expectations and stock valuations poses a major risk to the broader economy when it bursts.

Trump’s unilateral war on Iran signals the end of the U.S.-led world order and forces allies to reconsider security, trade, and global partnerships.

Despite strong wage growth, rising out-of-pocket health care costs are fueling affordability concerns, highlighting the need for reforms to lower drug prices, doctor pay, and insurance bureaucracy.

Relaxed rules of engagement under Pete Hegseth are blamed for increasing civilian casualties, including a deadly strike on an Iranian girls’ school.

Promises that $1,000 “Trump accounts” will grow into huge retirement fortunes rely on an implausible 10 percent stock return that today’s high price-to-earnings ratios make impossible to sustain.

Corporate tax avoidance schemes reduce effective tax rates far below the statutory level, but requiring firms to give the government non-voting shares could largely eliminate these scams.

Rising oil and gas prices function like a tax on consumers, and despite strong domestic production, US households still face major costs from higher energy prices.

February’s job losses may partly reflect unusually mild January weather, but the three-month trend shows weak job growth and signs of a slowing labor market.