Publications

The January jobs report removed any immediate concerns about a weakening labor market as the economy added 353,000 jobs. In addition, the December figure was revised up to 278,000, bringing the three-month average to 289,000 a month.

Barring an unexpected jump, January will be the 24th consecutive month of below 4.0 percent unemployment. The economy is closing in the record of 26 consecutive months, set between November of 1967 and January of 1970.

Despite signs of a labor movement resurgence throughout 2023, union density continued to hover at a historic low.

The October jobs report should show that the job market remains solid. The economy was growing very rapidly through the end of the third quarter.

The labor market likely remained solid in September. The data on unemployment insurance claims suggest, if anything, that the labor market may have tightened somewhat as the number of weekly claims fell to almost 200,000.

We’ve gotten surprisingly good news on both the core and overall inflation numbers for the last three months.

The share of those employed in the US who are union members hit a record low last year, in keeping with a decades-long downward trend.

We have been getting lower than expected inflation reports in recent months, with both the overall and core CPI coming in at 0.2 percent in June. We may see some less good news in the July report.

The establishment survey showed a gain of 187,000 jobs in July, slightly less than was generally expected.

We have seen substantial upward revisions to wage data in recent months. Average hourly earnings in February were originally reported as $33.09. After two revisions, they are now reported at $33.11. The March wage figure was originally reported at $33.18. With the April revision, it stood at $33.20.