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Preview: Will Moderating Wage Growth Ease Inflation Fears?
If wage growth continues to moderate, it would be hard to argue that the Fed needs to aggressively hike rates going forward.
Publications
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Soaring Food and Energy Prices Drive Inflation Higher in May
Bad news. Soaring energy and food prices, largely due to the Ukraine war, will hit consumers hard. A cease fire could make a big difference.
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Preview: What to Look for In the May Consumer Price Index
With wage growth slowing and supply chain problems easing, we are not seeing the wage-price spiral of the 1970s. But the war-related price increases for food and energy will still be bad news for the overall inflation picture and US consumers.
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Strong Job Growth in May, Wage Pressure Eases
The drop in unemployment due to quits undermines the story of an out-of-control labor market.
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Preview: Lower Unemployment with Moderating Wage Growth
All signs point to another good month of job growth in May; that should push the unemployment rate down to at least 3.5 percent, making it tie for the lowest rate since 1969.
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Solid Month of Job Growth in April
The economy added 428,000 jobs in April, while the unemployment rate remained flat at 3.6 percent.
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Preview: Unemployment Likely to Hit 50 Year Low
We will likely see a further dip in the unemployment rate. A 0.2 percentage point drop would give us the lowest rate in more than 50 years.
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A May Day Assessment of Union Membership in the United States
The first day of May is International Workers Day. The holiday is meant to commemorate the shared struggle of workers across the globe.
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Gas Prices Add Punch to Inflation Jump in March
The overall CPI story is mixed. The March figure is very bad, but we know some prices, most importantly gas, will be reversed in April. Food prices are still driven by higher shipping costs and supply chain disruptions.
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PREVIEW: What to Look for in the March Consumer Price Index
Will inflation accelerate or slow down? That’s the most important new information to watch for in the March report.
