Publications

Last month’s jobs report showed a modestly improving labor market,  so the February data could help clarify whether or not things are moving in a more positive direction.

The fourth quarter GDP came in lower than generally expected. Housing and non-AI investments are weak, and consumption is driven largely by health care — which is likely leaving many feeling squeezed.

The steady growth in the economy is riding an AI bubble, fueled by investment in data centers and other related areas, while consumption growth is being supported by the stock market bubble.

Research shows that workers experiencing income volatility are more likely to have interruptions in their access to health care.

Job growth for the month of January was well above most forecasts, though the annual benchmark revision lowered reported jobs for all of last year by more than 240,000.

The January numbers are likely to be very similar to the December data,  which would put the year-over-year inflation rate at 2.7 percent — not especially concerning, but still above the Fed’s 2.0 percent target.

The January 2026 jobs report will likely confirm a gradually weakening labor market, with modest job growth, steady unemployment, and benchmark revisions that erase much of 2025’s gains.

A new analysis of government data shows that union density was mostly steady in 2025 — with a drop in the fourth quarter that could be due to federal job cuts.

In 2025, the Black jobs deficit grew to 1.8 million — a disparity that costs Black workers roughly $87 billion in lost income.

While data collection in November was interrupted by the government shutdown, the inflation rate for December is likely to be moderate, with the overall CPI and core both coming in at about 0.3 percent.