Publications

September’s jobs report is expected to show weak growth, slower wages, and higher risks for Black and young workers.

The anti-immigrant rhetoric of the Trump era is remarkably intense. But scapegoating economically disadvantaged populations has been a key feature of US history, and has proven to be very useful to elite interests who seek to divide working people in service of their own economic interests.

The impact of tariffs and deportations should be clearly visible in the August CPI, giving the Fed a tough choice to combat rising inflation or labor market weakness.

The August jobs report leaves little doubt that the labor market is weakening. Job growth has slowed to a trickle and wage growth is falling to a pace that barely exceeds the rate of inflation.

The August jobs report is likely to again show weakening in the labor market; this is not yet a recession indicator, but it’s not good news for workers.

Workers facing high year-to-year income volatility are more likely to report poor health, with the effect strongest among low-income households.

July 2025 CPI is expected to show broad tariff-driven price increases in food, energy, vehicles, and other goods, slowing real wage growth and challenging the Fed.

With slow job growth in July and sharp downward revisions to the prior two months’ data, the overall picture is unambiguously negative.

A boost in the second quarter brought the growth rate for the first half of the year to 1.2 percent, down from a 2.8 percent rate last year.

There have been signs of a weakening labor market, so the July jobs report could provide more information about where things are headed.