CEPR logo

Fact-based, data-driven research and analysis to advance democratic debate on vital issues shaping people’s lives.

Center for Economic and Policy Research
1611 Connecticut Ave. NW
Suite 400
Washington, DC 20009

Tel: 202-293-5380
Fax: 202-588-1356
https://cepr.net

Close

On This Page

April 2016, David Rosnick

This issue brief examines the IMF’s methodology for estimating potential GDP, and its pitfalls and problems. A number of economists have noted recent problems with overestimates of actual GDP in recent years in Greece, and the IMF’s own research has found that the multipliers associated with fiscal tightening had been underestimated.  But the policy and political implications of potential GDP estimates, which are not only forecasts but also continuously revised for past estimates, may be even more important.

PDF pdf_small | Flash 

Press Release

En Español