September 30, 2024
In this edition of Sanctions Watch, covering September 2024:
- US Institute of Peace experts say sanctions harm Afghans US seeks to support;
- Heads of state, parliamentarians from around the world call to remove Cuba’s terror designation amid spiraling crisis
- Reformist Iranian president reiterates willingness to pursue new nuclear deal;
- US imposes new sanctions over alleged payments between North Korea and Russia;
- EU plans to advance scheme for Ukraine loan backed by frozen Russian assets;
- Latin American leaders call to lift sanctions on Venezuela at UN General Assembly;
- A new bill seeks to address the “root causes” of migration, including economic sanctions, and more.
Afghanistan (background)
The US Institute of Peace (USIP) published an article this month reflecting on three years of Taliban rule in Afghanistan. The piece features insights from several USIP experts, including Scott Worden, director of Afghanistan and Central Asia programs, who noted that “sanctioning the Taliban and withholding development assistance ultimately hurts the Afghans the U.S. seeks to support and increases humanitarian needs.” Senior Expert William Byrd observed that:
Over the past three years Afghanistan’s economy has gone through three phases, with a drastic initial economic shock stabilizing at a low-level equilibrium that shows little prospect of improving any time soon. [The first phase was characterized by] free-fall in the months following the Taliban takeover, precipitated by the cut-off of some $8 billion per year of aid and large international military expenditures in-country, exacerbated by stoppage of foreign financial transactions, freezing of Afghanistan’s $9 billion of foreign exchange reserves, and other shocks. Afghanistan’s GDP fell by more than a quarter, unemployment and underemployment increased, inflation soared and personal incomes fell, with tens of millions of people dependent on humanitarian aid. The urban service sector (bloated by foreign inflows of money) shrank greatly. Afghan women suffered disproportionately due to Taliban gender restrictions. Rural areas saw improvements in security with the end of the war, but any economic “peace dividend” was overwhelmed by the aid cut-off and other shocks.
In a UN Security Council briefing, the UN’s Special Representative for Afghanistan said:
We are at the same time trying to address the political legacy of Afghanistan’s long conflict. In the current situation, Afghanistan is ruptured from the international community. Individual Taliban, many of whom are de facto ministers, are under sanctions and cannot travel without permission from this Council. Afghanistan’s Central Bank assets are frozen, limiting the development potential of the private sector. And the de facto authorities have no representation in multilateral institutions.
Relatedly, Swissinfo journalist Julian Busch wrote, “Continuing a policy of isolation could have far-reaching consequences for the Afghan population above all. Cut off from international banking and subject to financial restrictions, the Afghan economy has not yet recovered from its collapse, while hundreds of thousands of young people flood onto the labour market each year.”
Read more:
- The Hospital Struggling to Save Its Starving Babies, BBC
- Switzerland Returns to Afghanistan Despite Taliban Recognition Issues, Swissinfo
Cuba (background)
Humanitarian conditions in Cuba continue to deteriorate as a result of the sanctions-fueled economic crisis. The Cuban government was forced to slash the size of its daily bread ration this month amid a shortage of wheat flour. Earlier this year, the government turned to the UN World Food Programme for the first time ever to request powdered milk for children. Power outages are frequent. Crumbling infrastructure and periodic blackouts have left hundreds of thousands of Cubans facing water shortages. AFP News reports that “Havana is drowning in a sea of uncollected trash as a critical shortage of fuel and vehicle parts affects garbage collection on the island crippled by sanctions and economic woes.” As a result of these garbage collection challenges and the lack of resources for fumigation efforts, insect-borne diseases are now spreading rapidly. According to new US Customs and Border Protection numbers, more than 850,000 Cuban migrants have arrived to the US since 2022. Per El País: “The migratory exodus that skyrocketed in Cuba almost three years ago appears to have no end in sight.”
As the country’s economic crisis spirals, and with only a few months left in President Joe Biden’s term, international pressure for President Biden to fulfill his campaign promise of reversing controversial Trump-era sanctions is growing. Over 600 members of parliament from over 70 countries around the world sent a letter this month calling for the US Department of State to remove Cuba from the State Sponsors of Terrorism (SSOT) list, describing the designation as “cynical, cruel, and a clear violation of international law.” Thirty-five ex–heads of state and government — including former leaders of Brazil, Malaysia, Mozambique, Jamaica, and Colombia — sent a similar letter, noting that the designation was made “without any proof whatsoever.” In response, 17 right-wing former leaders — including Colombia’s Iván Duque, Argentina’s Mauricio Macri, Venezuela’s self-proclaimed president Juan Guaidó, and Bolivia’s Jeanine Áñez (who came to power via a military coup) — wrote a separate letter calling for the designation to be maintained.
At the UN General Assembly’s General Debate week, leaders of countries from around the world — including Colombia, Brazil, Barbados, Angola, Nauru, Vietnam, Suriname, Namibia, Guinea-Bissau, Honduras, Guyana, Bolivia, Gabon, Gambia, São Tomé and Príncipe, Lesotho, Equatorial Guinea, Tanzania, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Antigua and Barbuda, Lao, Tuvalu, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Timor-Leste, Saint Lucia, Jamaica, Solomon Islands, Grenada, China, Mexico, Trinidad and Tobago, Belize, Syria, Burkina Faso, and more — condemned the US embargo of Cuba and urged its removal. Some, including Brazil’s Lula da Silva, referred specifically to the SSOT designation: “It is unjustifiable,” the Brazilian president noted, “to keep Cuba on a unilateral list of states that supposedly promote terrorism, and impose unilateral coercive measures that unduly penalize the most vulnerable populations.”
Read more:
- Exclusive: Cuba Warns US Pressure Drives Closer Ties With China and Russia, Newsweek
- Cuba Slashes Size of Daily Bread Ration as Ingredients Run Thin, Reuters
- Trash Overwhelms Havana As Garbage Trucks Lack Parts, Fuel, AFP News
- Amid Deepening Economic Crisis, Cuba Tightens Rules on Fledgling Private Sector, Reuters
Iran (background)
In his second month in office, reformist Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian continued to emphasize his desire to reengage diplomatically with the West. In a speech to the UN General Assembly, Pezeshkian decried US unilateral sanctions as “[targeting] innocent people.” He also pointed out that the collapse of the 2016 nuclear deal was the result of Donald Trump’s unilateral withdrawal from the agreement and imposition of sanctions but reiterated his willingness to pursue a new agreement. It is unclear, however, whether Pezeshkian will find a willing partner in the United States. Former Obama official Joel Rubin argues that “a firm, verifiable nuclear deal … has to be the goal. … Any realistic president would go for that. And that’s Kamala Harris, she’s a realistic president-to-be.” While Harris campaigned on a return to the deal in 2020, she has not made such commitments during her current run. In fact, this month, her campaign criticized Trump for suggesting that he would consider lifting sanctions on Iran and Russia. (Trump’s claims that he has a track record of lifting sanctions after a short time period is inaccurate.)
This month, Secretary Antony Blinken accused Iran of providing short-range ballistic missiles to Russia for use in the war in Ukraine. This allegation was followed by a new set of sanctions against Iranian officials and companies, most notably Iran’s primary airline, Iran Air. France, Germany, and the United Kingdom followed suit, canceling their bilateral air services agreement with Iran. In the weeks that followed, the US Department of Treasury also announced new sanctions against Iranian officials for alleged human rights violations and against over a dozen entities and shipping vessels for purportedly facilitating the sale of Iranian oil to Syria.
Read more:
- Why Pressure on Iran Failed, The National Interest
- Iran Hopes For Nuclear Agreement, President Says, HuffPost
- What Harris and Trump Should Say About Iran, Responsible Statecraft
North Korea (background)
The US imposed sanctions on a network of five entities and one person for allegedly facilitating payments between Russia and North Korea. The US Department of Treasury alleges that these payments were used to support Russia’s war in Ukraine and North Korea’s weapons program. Among those targeted by the sanctions are two North Korean state organizations.
Read more:
Russia (background)
The US imposed multiple rounds of sanctions on Russia this month. On September 4, the US Department of Treasury sanctioned 10 individuals and two entities — including executives from RT, a Russian state-funded media outlet — for allegedly attempting to interfere in the 2024 US elections. Additional sanctions were imposed on RT’s parent company, TV-Novosti, and other related Russian state media outlets on September 14 for allegedly raising funds for the Russian military and attempting to interfere in Moldova’s October elections. The US also imposed more sanctions on Russia’s flagship Arctic LNG 2 project, targeting two entities and two vessels for allegedly attempting to export liquefied natural gas from the project. According to a recent Financial Times article, existing sanctions on the Arctic LNG 2 project appear to have deterred buyers, forcing Russia to store natural gas produced there. In addition, the United Kingdom has sanctioned 10 vessels for allegedly shipping Russian oil in violation of G7 sanctions.
Amid challenges in resolving technical issues related to the G7’s plan for a $50 billion loan to Ukraine backed by profits from frozen Russian assets, the European Commission (EC) has proposed that the European Union (EU) move forward independently with its own loan scheme. Ever since the G7 agreed in principle to work together to issue such a loan, the US has been hesitant to fully commit funds, fearing that the EU’s requirement to renew its Russia sanctions by unanimous vote every six months — and thereby continuing to freeze Russian assets — could be derailed if Hungary vetoes the renewal, jeopardizing the plan. To address these concerns, the EC presented EU member states with three proposals to extend the renewal periods. However, acceptance of any of these proposals would still require unanimous approval and could take time to process. There is also a sense of urgency among all parties to resolve the issue before the US elections on November 5 while Hungary has made it clear that it will not approve any of these proposals until after the elections.
As a result, on September 20 the EC proposed that the EU launch its own loan independently of the G7. This loan, still backed by frozen Russian assets, would be structured to require only a qualified majority for approval, sidestepping concerns about Hungary. Even if Hungary manages to veto the extension of sanctions on Russia, EU officials insist that the loan would be able to proceed as it would ultimately be guaranteed by the EU’s common budget. However, some experts argue that, on top of being legally questionable, issuing a loan backed by Russia’s assets could prolong the war in Ukraine because, as Ian Proud writes, “[w]ith no prospect of the return of even a share of their sovereign capital, any incentive for Russia to lay down arms and negotiate will disappear.”
Read more:
- EU Weighs Expanding Sanctions on Exports to Russia, Financial Times
- West Imposes Fresh Sanctions on Iran for Supplying Russia with Weapons, Financial Times
- Chinese State Banks Off-Load Russia Assets in Blow to Putin: Report, Newsweek
- Moldova’s Banks Stop Money Transfers from Russia, Balkan Insight
Venezuela (background)
The US seized a plane used by Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro while it was in the Dominican Republic this month, alleging that it was purchased in violation of sanctions. The Maduro government referred to the move, which even US officials described as “unheard of,” as an act of “piracy” and “aggression.” The following week, the Biden administration, in response to alleged fraud in the July presidential election in which Maduro was proclaimed the winner, announced new sanctions against 16 government officials, including the heads of the Supreme Court and electoral council as well as visa restrictions on an unspecified number of other officials.
While the main opposition coalition has now called for President Biden to target the oil sector by reversing licenses that had been granted to Chevron and other oil companies, the Biden administration has thus far refrained from doing so, citing “broader diplomatic efforts” and an effort to avoid “harming the everyday Venezuelan people.” Concerns about how broader measures would impact oil prices and migration likely play a role. As economist and CEPR Senior Research Fellow Francisco Rodríguez told NBC News this month, “If you want to do something about migration, what you should not do is help make things worse for Venezuelans.”
A number of world leaders spoke critically of the US’s sanctions against Venezuela at the UN General Assembly this month. The leaders of Honduras, which recognized Maduro as the winner of July’s elections; Colombia, which has offered to support negotiations for a power-sharing agreement; and Chile, which has been highly critical of Maduro and outright rejected the official outcome of the July election, all called for the lifting of broad unilateral sanctions. “I have to say that the unilateral sanctions imposed by the United States do not help the situation, but on the contrary exacerbate it,” Chilean president Gabriel Boric said in his speech to the General Assembly. “Economic sanctions hit the Venezuelan people, the humble, the workers the hardest. The political crisis is tied to the economic crisis, which have together pushed more than seven million Venezuelans into exile. … I call on the authorities of the United States to lift the economic sanctions that we in the south know only cause more poverty in the people, not in dictators.”
Read more:
- Exclusive: US Seizes Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro’s Airplane in the Dominican Republic, CNN
- US Imposes Sanctions on 16 Venezuelan Officials Linked to Maduro, Reuters
- https://gadebate.un.org/sites/default/files/gastatements/79/cl_es_0.pdf, UN General Debate
Other
A new resolution introduced this month by US Congress Representatives Greg Casar (D-TX), Pramila Jayapal (D-WA), Jesús G. “Chuy” García (D-IL), Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D-CA), Delia Ramirez (D-IL), Juan Vargas (D-CA), and 22 other colleagues in the US House of Representatives seeks to reframe the migration debate by pointing to the ways that the US could help address migration at its source. The resolution, “Calling for comprehensive legislation that addresses United States policies contributing to forced migration and displacement” — which has been endorsed by CEPR, Oxfam America, United We Dream, and Center for International Policy, among others — notes that broad economic sanctions “disproportionately affect the civilian population and have contributed to increased rates of income inequality and poverty.” Citing sanctions on Cuba and Venezuela in particular as “contributing to the immiseration of people in both countries,” the resolution calls for overhauling US sanctions policy to stop “increasing economic inequality, poverty, and forced migration.”
This month, sanctions took center stage at the UN General Assembly’s General Debate week, with leaders from around the world expressing disapproval of various US sanction regimes and the rampant use of broad unilateral sanctions in general. President Xiomara Castro of Honduras demanded an “end to the unjust blockades against our brothers and sisters in Nicaragua and Venezuela and urged the removal of Cuba from the [US] State Sponsors of Terrorism list.” President Wavel Ramkalawan of Seychelles noted that “[o]ur work in the multilateral system is undermined by unilateral coercive measures that are intended to leave economies crippled and governments unable to advance dignity for their own people.” Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli of Nepal said, “It is vital to uphold the principles of sovereign equality and non-interference as enshrined in the UN Charter to ensure peace and stability. Consequently, we staunchly oppose any form of unilateral intervention or sanctions.” President William Ruto of Kenya remarked that “unilateral economic, financial, and trade measures not only impede the full achievement of economic and social development, but also undermine the principles of international cooperation, mutual respect, and sovereignty.” A number of African leaders, including those of Angola, Lesotho, and Namibia, specifically condemned the unilateral sanctions imposed on neighboring Zimbabwe. In all, dozens of leaders used their platform at the UN to condemn US sanctions in some form — whether in general or regarding specific countries like Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Syria — including the leaders of Colombia, Brazil, Angola, Chile, Nauru, Vietnam, Suriname, Namibia, Guinea-Bissau, Guyana, South Sudan, Bolivia, Gabon, Gambia, São Tomé and Príncipe, Lesotho, Equatorial Guinea, Barbados, Tanzania, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Uganda, Antigua and Barbuda, Lao, Tuvalu, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Timor-Leste, Saint Lucia, Jamaica, Solomon Islands, Grenada, the Holy See, China, Cambodia, Mexico, Trinidad and Tobago, Belize, Syria, Burkina Faso, and more.
In September, the UN General Assembly adopted The Pact for the Future — a wide-ranging if often vague agreement spanning questions of development, peace, technology, and multilateralism. The first of the document’s 56 action items is to “take bold, ambitious, accelerated, just and transformative actions to implement the 2030 Agenda, achieve the Sustainable Development Goals and leave no one behind,” a subcommitment of which is to “[r]emove all obstacles to sustainable development and refrain from economic coercion.”
The New York Times editorial board member Farah Stockman penned an article on September 11 criticizing the proliferation of broad economic sanctions: “The more I read, the more convinced I became that crippling sanctions on entire countries — as in the case of Cuba, Iran and Venezuela — are counterproductive. They create widespread misery but strengthen autocrats’ grip on power by bankrupting independent businesses that might have served as counterweights.” Stockman cites extensive evidence of the profound humanitarian impacts of broad economic sanctions and refers to an August 12 letter sent to President Biden by 40 legal organizations and 200 individual lawyers describing broad economic sanctions as a form of “collective punishment.” Individual asset freezes and visa bans, she argues, may be more effective.
A ProPublica report alleges that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken dismissed findings from the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and the US Department of State’s Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration (PRM) concluding that the Israeli government was restricting aid to Gaza. An April USAID report specifically stated that Israel’s “arbitrary denial, restriction, and impediments of U.S. humanitarian assistance” were contributing to a looming famine. However, in May, Blinken told Congress that Israel was not restricting aid with the aim of preventing any obstacles to continued military assistance to Israel.
Nongovernmental organizations and UN bodies have been echoing USAID and PRM’s conclusions for months. Just this month, 15 aid organizations, including Save the Children and Oxfam, released a joint letter stating that “lifesaving food, medicine, medical supplies, fuel, and tents have been systematically blocked from entering for almost a year. Data analysis by organisations working in Gaza has found that as a consequence of the Israeli government’s obstruction of aid: 83% of required food aid does not make it into Gaza.” Refugees International published a report in which it “corroborated evidence of a severe hunger crisis in Gaza and found consistent indications that famine-like conditions occurred in northern areas during the first half of 2024. … [E]bbs and flows in hunger conditions are closely linked to Israeli government restrictions and concessions on aid access, and to the conduct of the Israeli military.” The UN Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food also accused Israel of engaging in a “starvation campaign” and said there is “full-blown famine across all of Gaza.”
Finally, in a meeting in New Delhi this month, the US’s G20 emissary and Deputy National Security Advisor to President Biden Daleep Singh appeared to critique current US sanctions policy. In his remarks at the gathering, he put forward a vision of strengthening US ties with the developing world by supporting their efforts to address urgent challenges such as growing indebtedness rather than implementing coercive economic policies: “If we want to forge an enduring set of alliances with countries that have shared interests, the way is not through sanctions. It’s going to be through economics and technology. … I’m keenly aware that two thirds of the world, the world’s population, lives in countries that have not joined our sanction machine, and so we need to reflect upon that and decide how we can do better.”
Read more:
- Pact for the Future Global Digital Compact, and Declaration on Future Generations, United Nations
- Israel Deliberately Blocked Humanitarian Aid to Gaza, Two Government Bodies Concluded. Antony Blinken Rejected Them, ProPublica
- UN Investigator Accuses Israel of a ‘Starvation Campaign’ in Gaza that Netanyahu Denies, AP News
- UK Suspends Some Arms Exports to Israel Over Humanitarian Law Concerns, Al Jazeera
- Israel’s Siege Now Blocks 83% of Food Aid Reaching Gaza, New Data Reveals, Norwegian Refugee Council
- Washington Targeted ‘Corrupt’ Mines. Workers Paid the Greatest Price, The Washington Post
- Untangling the Reality of Famine in Gaza, Refugees International
- Time for the US to Admit Defeat in Syria, The Boston Globe
- U.S. Sanctions Former Politician Once Close to President Moïse, Along with Gang Leader, Miami Herald
- Thread on US Sanctions on China by Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, X
- China-Russia Trade Inches Up as US Sanctions and Payment Issues Strain Growth, South China Morning Post
- China Sanctions US Defence Firms Over Arms Sales to Taiwan, Al Jazeera
- Lithuania Seizes Belarus Shipment of Fire Trucks to Zimbabwe Over Sanctions, ZimLive
- US Extends Ethiopia Sanctions Programme for Another Year, The Africa Report
- EU Condemns Escalation in Sudan, Threatens Sanctions, Anadolu
- UN Security Council Extends Sudan Sanctions for Additional Year, Middle East Monitor
- US Sanctions Cambodian Tycoon for Alleged Human Trafficking to Cyber Scam Centers, The Record
- UN Expert Calls for Systematic Monitoring and Assessment of Adverse Human Rights Impact of Unilateral Coercive Measures, Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights
- US Sanctions Georgian Officials for Undermining Democracy, Politico
- US Imposes Sanctions on Suppliers to Pakistan’s Ballistic Missile Program, Arab News
- Developing Countries Demand Unconditional Withdrawal of Sanctions by US and Allies, Peoples Dispatch
About Sanctions Watch
Economic sanctions have become one of the main tools of US foreign policy despite widespread evidence that they can cause severe harm to civilian populations (which may, in fact, be the point). Though now a defining feature of the global economic order, sanctions and their human costs receive relatively little attention in most US media outlets.
CEPR’s Sanctions Watch news bulletin aims to generate more awareness on the use and impact of sanctions through monthly round-ups of news and analysis on US sanctions policy.
Click here to see past editions of CEPR’s Sanctions Watch.
