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The Americas Blog

El Blog de las Americas

The Americas Blog seeks to present a more accurate perspective on economic and political developments in the Western Hemisphere than is often presented in the United States. It will provide information that is often ignored, buried, and sometimes misreported in the major U.S. media.

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• BoliviaBoliviaElectionsEleccionesLatin America and the CaribbeanAmérica Latina y el CaribeWorldEl Mundo

Nickels Before Dimes: Concluding Remarks 

By David RosnickDavid Rosnick

January 24, 2023

24 Enero 2023

In this blog post series, we examined assumptions and biases in Escobari and Gary A. Hoover's 2020 report, “Evo Morales and Electoral Fraud in Bolivia: A Natural Experiment and Discontinuity Evidence.” We looked at counting biases and observed that support for a given candidate need not be uniform over the count.
In this blog post series, we examined assumptions and biases in Escobari and Gary A. Hoover's 2020 report, “Evo Morales and Electoral Fraud in Bolivia: A Natural Experiment and Discontinuity Evidence.” We looked at counting biases and observed that support for a given candidate need not be uniform over the count.

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• IMFFondo Monetario InternacionalLatin America and the CaribbeanAmérica Latina y el CaribeUS Foreign PolicyPolítica exterior de EE. UU.VenezuelaVenezuela

Omitiendo la evidencia: En lo que el FMI se equivoca sobre Venezuela

By Francisco R. Rodríguez and Michael GalantFrancisco R. Rodríguez y Michael Galant

January 20, 2023

20 Enero 2023

Un informe nuevo del FMI omiten uno de los factores más importantes que contribuyen a la actual situación económica y humanitaria de Venezuela: las sanciones económicas.
Un informe nuevo del FMI omiten uno de los factores más importantes que contribuyen a la actual situación económica y humanitaria de Venezuela: las sanciones económicas.

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• BoliviaBoliviaLatin America and the CaribbeanAmérica Latina y el Caribe

Escobari and Hoover Fake a Triple-Difference and Make Things Worse

By David RosnickDavid Rosnick

January 19, 2023

19 Enero 2023

Escobari and Hoover assumed away all benign explanations for nonparallel trends, arguing that the existence of nonparallel trends itself serves as evidence of fraud in favor of Evo Morales.
Escobari and Hoover assumed away all benign explanations for nonparallel trends, arguing that the existence of nonparallel trends itself serves as evidence of fraud in favor of Evo Morales.

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• IMFFondo Monetario InternacionalLatin America and the CaribbeanAmérica Latina y el CaribeSanctionsSpotlightUS Foreign PolicyPolítica exterior de EE. UU.VenezuelaVenezuelaWorldEl Mundo

Omitting the Evidence: What the IMF Gets Wrong about Venezuela

By Michael Galant and Francisco R. RodríguezMichael Galant y Francisco R. Rodríguez

January 18, 2023

18 Enero 2023

A recent IMF report on Venezuela omits one of the single most important factors contributing to Venezuela’s current economic and humanitarian plight: US economic sanctions.
A recent IMF report on Venezuela omits one of the single most important factors contributing to Venezuela’s current economic and humanitarian plight: US economic sanctions.

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• BoliviaBoliviaLatin America and the CaribbeanAmérica Latina y el Caribe

The Grand Switcheroo: Escobari and Hoover Reinterpret Their Results to Misidentify Fraud

By David RosnickDavid Rosnick

January 09, 2023

09 Enero 2023

Escobari and Hoover’s assumptions are far too restrictive, disallowing all kinds of benign explanations of Bolivia's 2019 election results.
Escobari and Hoover’s assumptions are far too restrictive, disallowing all kinds of benign explanations of Bolivia's 2019 election results.

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• BoliviaBoliviaLatin America and the CaribbeanAmérica Latina y el Caribe

Red Herrings: Escobari and Hoover’s Geographic Controls and Common Trends Add Nothing

By David RosnickDavid Rosnick

January 06, 2023

06 Enero 2023

The absence of fraud does not guarantee that the identifying “parallel trends” assumption holds. This causes Escobari and Hoover’s approach to mistakenly find fraud where none exists.
The absence of fraud does not guarantee that the identifying “parallel trends” assumption holds. This causes Escobari and Hoover’s approach to mistakenly find fraud where none exists.

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• BoliviaBoliviaElectionsEleccionesLatin America and the CaribbeanAmérica Latina y el CaribeWorldEl Mundo

Escobari and Hoover Make an Improper Comparison to 2016, Invalidating Their “Difference-in-Difference” Estimates

By David RosnickDavid Rosnick

December 16, 2022

16 Diciembre 2022

In this post, we demonstrate how Escobari and Hoover's “difference-in-difference” models mistakenly identify fraud when the difference in trends interacts with the counting bias — even when the resulting trends are linear.
In this post, we demonstrate how Escobari and Hoover's “difference-in-difference” models mistakenly identify fraud when the difference in trends interacts with the counting bias — even when the resulting trends are linear.

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• BoliviaBoliviaElectionsEleccionesLatin America and the CaribbeanAmérica Latina y el CaribeWorldEl Mundo

The 2019 Election Is Not Directly Comparable to the 2016 Referendum

By David RosnickDavid Rosnick

December 06, 2022

06 Diciembre 2022

In the previous post, we adjusted the average for a precinct to match the average for the entire election while preserving the variability of polling stations within each precinct.
In the previous post, we adjusted the average for a precinct to match the average for the entire election while preserving the variability of polling stations within each precinct.

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• BoliviaBoliviaElectionsEleccionesLatin America and the CaribbeanAmérica Latina y el CaribeWorldEl Mundo

Escobari and Hoover’s “Difference Estimates” Are Driven by Geography — Not by “Fraud”

By David RosnickDavid Rosnick

November 30, 2022

30 Noviembre 2022

In the previous post, we investigated the confounding effects of rurality and socioeconomic status on a naive estimate of fraud.
In the previous post, we investigated the confounding effects of rurality and socioeconomic status on a naive estimate of fraud.

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• BoliviaBoliviaElectionsEleccionesLatin America and the CaribbeanAmérica Latina y el CaribeWorldEl Mundo

Escobari and Hoover’s “Difference Estimates” Must Not Be Taken at Face Value

By David RosnickDavid Rosnick

November 23, 2022

23 Noviembre 2022

This is the seventh in a series of blog posts addressing a report by Diego Escobari and Gary Hoover covering the 2019 presidential election in Bolivia.
This is the seventh in a series of blog posts addressing a report by Diego Escobari and Gary Hoover covering the 2019 presidential election in Bolivia.

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