The Americas Blog

El Blog de las Americas

The Americas Blog seeks to present a more accurate perspective on economic and political developments in the Western Hemisphere than is often presented in the United States. It will provide information that is often ignored, buried, and sometimes misreported in the major U.S. media.

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In this blog post series, we examined assumptions and biases in Escobari and Gary A. Hoover's 2020 report, “Evo Morales and Electoral Fraud in Bolivia: A Natural Experiment and Discontinuity Evidence.” We looked at counting biases and observed that support for a given candidate need not be uniform over the count.
In this blog post series, we examined assumptions and biases in Escobari and Gary A. Hoover's 2020 report, “Evo Morales and Electoral Fraud in Bolivia: A Natural Experiment and Discontinuity Evidence.” We looked at counting biases and observed that support for a given candidate need not be uniform over the count.
Un informe nuevo del FMI omiten uno de los factores más importantes que contribuyen a la actual situación económica y humanitaria de Venezuela: las sanciones económicas.
Un informe nuevo del FMI omiten uno de los factores más importantes que contribuyen a la actual situación económica y humanitaria de Venezuela: las sanciones económicas.
Escobari and Hoover assumed away all benign explanations for nonparallel trends, arguing that the existence of nonparallel trends itself serves as evidence of fraud in favor of Evo Morales.
Escobari and Hoover assumed away all benign explanations for nonparallel trends, arguing that the existence of nonparallel trends itself serves as evidence of fraud in favor of Evo Morales.

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A recent IMF report on Venezuela omits one of the single most important factors contributing to Venezuela’s current economic and humanitarian plight: US economic sanctions.
A recent IMF report on Venezuela omits one of the single most important factors contributing to Venezuela’s current economic and humanitarian plight: US economic sanctions.
Escobari and Hoover’s assumptions are far too restrictive, disallowing all kinds of benign explanations of Bolivia's 2019 election results.
Escobari and Hoover’s assumptions are far too restrictive, disallowing all kinds of benign explanations of Bolivia's 2019 election results.
The absence of fraud does not guarantee that the identifying “parallel trends” assumption holds. This causes Escobari and Hoover’s approach to mistakenly find fraud where none exists.
The absence of fraud does not guarantee that the identifying “parallel trends” assumption holds. This causes Escobari and Hoover’s approach to mistakenly find fraud where none exists.
In this post, we demonstrate how Escobari and Hoover's “difference-in-difference” models mistakenly identify fraud when the difference in trends interacts with the counting bias — even when the resulting trends are linear.
In this post, we demonstrate how Escobari and Hoover's “difference-in-difference” models mistakenly identify fraud when the difference in trends interacts with the counting bias — even when the resulting trends are linear.
In the previous post, we adjusted the average for a precinct to match the average for the entire election while preserving the variability of polling stations within each precinct.
In the previous post, we adjusted the average for a precinct to match the average for the entire election while preserving the variability of polling stations within each precinct.
In the previous post, we investigated the confounding effects of rurality and socioeconomic status on a naive estimate of fraud.
In the previous post, we investigated the confounding effects of rurality and socioeconomic status on a naive estimate of fraud.
This is the seventh in a series of blog posts addressing a report by Diego Escobari and Gary Hoover covering the 2019 presidential election in Bolivia.
This is the seventh in a series of blog posts addressing a report by Diego Escobari and Gary Hoover covering the 2019 presidential election in Bolivia.

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