The Americas Blog

El Blog de las Americas

The Americas Blog seeks to present a more accurate perspective on economic and political developments in the Western Hemisphere than is often presented in the United States. It will provide information that is often ignored, buried, and sometimes misreported in the major U.S. media.

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On April 13, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that it would suspend debt servicing requirements for 25 lower-income countries in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The program, an expansion of the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust (CCRT), would provide “grants to our poorest and most vulnerable members to cover their IMF debt obligations for an initial phase over the next six months,” IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said.

Advocates of debt cancellation and relief, such as the Jubilee Debt Campaign, have commended the effort as a necessary first step in allowing poorer countries to invest in public health responses. Jubilee research revealed that, in 2019, 64 countries spent more on debt servicing than on public health. 

While the IMF’s debt pause is indeed a welcome step, the French finance minister, Bruno Le Maire, told the press that the IMF is thus far resistant to a large allocation of the Fund’s reserve currency, Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). An SDR allocation would provide needed resources for developing economies, but could also free up additional resources to expand debt relief operations. Opposition, Le Maire said, is coming from the United States — which remains the IMF’s largest voting member and maintains virtual veto power over IMF activities. Bloomberg reports:

“The U.S. response for now is negative,” Le Maire told reporters on Tuesday ahead of a call with Group of Seven finance chiefs Tuesday and virtual meetings of the IMF and World Bank this week. “But we continue to think it is a response that is not costly for IMF members and very effective for developing countries.” 

While no agreement is likely on Wednesday, France will keep pushing because the measure is more monetary than fiscal so would be less of a burden on budgets, according to a finance ministry official, who declined to be identified in line with government policy.

 

More SDRs could help ensure emerging markets avoid a cash crunch as they deal with the health crisis, economic stagnation and capital outflows. The IMF’s executive board on Monday approved debt service relief for 25 countries for six months via its Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust. 

In a recent report, Mark Sobel, the U.S.’s former executive director at the IMF, has said there are “better and more effective solutions” for the IMF to embrace than seeking more SDRs, such as offering short-term loans of dollars.

The six-month debt suspension to the IMF is projected to save the 25 affected countries a total of $225 million. In no case would the debt relief amount to more than 0.5 percent of a country’s GDP. With global growth expected to nose-dive and capital outflows from emerging markets already reaching record levels, debt relief alone is inadequate. The IMF’s Georgieva has estimated developing country finance needs at $2.5 trillion. UNCTAD has called for $2.5 trillion in support. CEPR economists Mark Weisbrot and Andrés Arauz have previously called for a 3 trillion SDR allocation. The Financial Times editorial board called for an allocation of 1.37 trillion SDRs. However, even a much lower allocation of $500 billion would deliver more than $7 billion in needed reserve assets to the 25 countries that received debt relief.

Some have raised concerns over an SDR allocation by noting that more than half of the resources would go toward developed countries that are able to access external credit lines — such as those offered by the Fed. But an SDR allocation, if handled appropriately, could provide an invaluable buffer to developing countries’ reserves, while also allowing the vast expansion of the IMF’s debt relief trust, in addition to other bilateral or regional arrangements. The IMF could allow developed countries — or those who do not need an infusion of SDRs — to donate their allocation to a centralized IMF trust. That trust, with its capitalization greatly enhanced, would be able to greatly expand debt relief operations throughout the world, beyond the initial 25 countries, and beyond the next six months.

Though the US has remained steadfast in its opposition to an SDR allocation, the policy has received widespread support — even from financial sector actors. As Bloomberg reported: 

“Some major members remain unconvinced for now, but ultimately concerns about the negative effects of money creation at the IMF would be the same as on the national level where central banks have been rapidly expanding money supply,” Bank of America Corp. analysts said in a report on Tuesday. “In a world of massive demand shortage and deleveraging, inflation seems a rather unlikely concern.”

The costs are low, but the upside to the global economy — particularly to those countries most vulnerable — could be tremendous, not just in terms of stabilizing reserves, but also, if done well, in offering unprecedented debt relief amid the ongoing pandemic. 

 

           

 

 

 

 

 

 

On April 13, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that it would suspend debt servicing requirements for 25 lower-income countries in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The program, an expansion of the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust (CCRT), would provide “grants to our poorest and most vulnerable members to cover their IMF debt obligations for an initial phase over the next six months,” IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said.

Advocates of debt cancellation and relief, such as the Jubilee Debt Campaign, have commended the effort as a necessary first step in allowing poorer countries to invest in public health responses. Jubilee research revealed that, in 2019, 64 countries spent more on debt servicing than on public health. 

While the IMF’s debt pause is indeed a welcome step, the French finance minister, Bruno Le Maire, told the press that the IMF is thus far resistant to a large allocation of the Fund’s reserve currency, Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). An SDR allocation would provide needed resources for developing economies, but could also free up additional resources to expand debt relief operations. Opposition, Le Maire said, is coming from the United States — which remains the IMF’s largest voting member and maintains virtual veto power over IMF activities. Bloomberg reports:

“The U.S. response for now is negative,” Le Maire told reporters on Tuesday ahead of a call with Group of Seven finance chiefs Tuesday and virtual meetings of the IMF and World Bank this week. “But we continue to think it is a response that is not costly for IMF members and very effective for developing countries.” 

While no agreement is likely on Wednesday, France will keep pushing because the measure is more monetary than fiscal so would be less of a burden on budgets, according to a finance ministry official, who declined to be identified in line with government policy.

 

More SDRs could help ensure emerging markets avoid a cash crunch as they deal with the health crisis, economic stagnation and capital outflows. The IMF’s executive board on Monday approved debt service relief for 25 countries for six months via its Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust. 

In a recent report, Mark Sobel, the U.S.’s former executive director at the IMF, has said there are “better and more effective solutions” for the IMF to embrace than seeking more SDRs, such as offering short-term loans of dollars.

The six-month debt suspension to the IMF is projected to save the 25 affected countries a total of $225 million. In no case would the debt relief amount to more than 0.5 percent of a country’s GDP. With global growth expected to nose-dive and capital outflows from emerging markets already reaching record levels, debt relief alone is inadequate. The IMF’s Georgieva has estimated developing country finance needs at $2.5 trillion. UNCTAD has called for $2.5 trillion in support. CEPR economists Mark Weisbrot and Andrés Arauz have previously called for a 3 trillion SDR allocation. The Financial Times editorial board called for an allocation of 1.37 trillion SDRs. However, even a much lower allocation of $500 billion would deliver more than $7 billion in needed reserve assets to the 25 countries that received debt relief.

Some have raised concerns over an SDR allocation by noting that more than half of the resources would go toward developed countries that are able to access external credit lines — such as those offered by the Fed. But an SDR allocation, if handled appropriately, could provide an invaluable buffer to developing countries’ reserves, while also allowing the vast expansion of the IMF’s debt relief trust, in addition to other bilateral or regional arrangements. The IMF could allow developed countries — or those who do not need an infusion of SDRs — to donate their allocation to a centralized IMF trust. That trust, with its capitalization greatly enhanced, would be able to greatly expand debt relief operations throughout the world, beyond the initial 25 countries, and beyond the next six months.

Though the US has remained steadfast in its opposition to an SDR allocation, the policy has received widespread support — even from financial sector actors. As Bloomberg reported: 

“Some major members remain unconvinced for now, but ultimately concerns about the negative effects of money creation at the IMF would be the same as on the national level where central banks have been rapidly expanding money supply,” Bank of America Corp. analysts said in a report on Tuesday. “In a world of massive demand shortage and deleveraging, inflation seems a rather unlikely concern.”

The costs are low, but the upside to the global economy — particularly to those countries most vulnerable — could be tremendous, not just in terms of stabilizing reserves, but also, if done well, in offering unprecedented debt relief amid the ongoing pandemic. 

 

           

 

 

 

 

 

 

Though COVID-19 was slow to appear in worrying numbers in Latin America and the Caribbean, the number of infected people in the region is now rising rapidly. Between March 1 and April 1, total confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus in Latin America rose from 5 to 25,500. In the first half of April, that number nearly tripled to 75,200. The US currently has the highest rate of reported COVID-19 cases per capita of any country in the Western Hemisphere, but this may be primarily because it saw its first case weeks earlier. Latin America may still have a similarly overwhelming case load coming its way.

Like in other regions around the world, the impacts of the pandemic are not evenly distributed throughout Latin America and the Caribbean. Infections are concentrated in certain countries and certain areas within countries; policy responses and health care systems differ from country to country, and from region to region within countries. 

Current Cases

The majority of confirmed Latin American cases are in just a handful of countries, with Brazil making up more than a third of all reported cases. Looking at the raw number of reported cases can help give us an idea of where the disease is, but looking only at the overall numbers may obscure serious outbreaks in smaller nations. Additionally, Figure 1 makes it clear that some countries have large numbers of total cases per capita, but much smaller numbers of active cases per capita due to recoveries and deaths. Figure 2 presents national data of confirmed active COVID-19 cases per 1,000 people. 

As can be seen, measuring confirmed cases in this manner highlights some potentially significant outbreaks that have thus far largely occurred under the radar. The highest overall active rate of infection right now can be found in Panama, which has more than double the rate seen in Ecuador, the Dominican Republic, and Chile, the next most-infected nations. Along with Peru, the outbreaks in Ecuador and Chile suggest that COVID-19 is more widespread on the Western Pacific coast of South America. Accounting for population size also illustrates that there appears to be significant outbreaks in some smaller Caribbean nations as well, with the Dominican Republic, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, and Grenada all making the top ten.

There are reasons to question these numbers. First, even if they all reported in good faith, each nation has its own sets of standards and collection mechanisms for reporting this data, meaning that each nation has differences in how their COVID-19 numbers are put together. Even more problematic, however, is the matter of testing. COVID-19 cases, recoveries, and deaths can only be reported if the virus is first diagnosed through testing, and the availability of testing varies widely. The inconsistency in testing across the region may also prevent us from having an accurate picture of the disease’s spread. Though not all countries in Latin America are reporting their testing numbers, a look at the data reveals that many nations in the region may be drastically underreporting confirmed cases. 

To get an idea of which countries are testing more than others, Figure 3 presents tests per 1,000 people for those countries with available data, with darker green illustrating more testing and white illustrating less.

The gaps between testing rates and reported active case rates can shed some light on who is underreporting most. Figure 4 plots tests per million people against active COVID-19 cases with a trendline that indicates how much an additional amount of testing yields in additional cases on average. Venezuela is excluded from this chart because they have recently received large shipments of medical supplies from China which dramatically expanded their testing capacity in just the last week, while their case numbers have remained relatively low; this suggests that it’s unlikely they’ve had a chance to deploy the tests and report back more accurate numbers accordingly.

If a country appears above the trendline, it indicates that it has a higher number of active cases than we would expect for a country in the region given its number of tests; if it appears below, it has fewer cases than would be expected.

This visualization tells us that the high levels of COVID-19 reported in some countries, like Chile and Panama, is in part due to the fact that they have some of the highest testing rates in Latin America. Unlike Chile, however, Panama’s placement high above the trendline indicates that it does in fact have a very serious outbreak on hand. Other countries with above-average cases per test include Antigua and Barbuda, the Dominican Republic, Grenada, Ecuador, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Of the countries that have reported their testing rates, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, and Bolivia have the lowest. It is no coincidence that these are some of the poorest and most underdeveloped countries in Latin America: testing rates correlate significantly with both GDP per capita and the UN’s Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index. Because the accuracy of coronavirus rates rises with more testing, we can’t be sure how widespread COVID-19 actually is in these countries.

There is another complication: the first cases of COVID-19 appeared at different times in different countries, and there is a clear relationship between how long it’s been since the beginning of an outbreak and how many total cases a nation has had. As such, it’s worth keeping an eye on the last countries to see cases appear, as these are nations likely to witness the most future growth. Examples include Belize, El Salvador, Grenada, Haiti, and Nicaragua.

On a more positive note, a few nations like Costa Rica, Cuba, and Uruguay appear to have handled the crisis fairly well so far, with a low number of active cases per thousand even when taking into account relatively high testing rates and the fact that their first cases appeared over a month ago.

Health Care Systems

Like the reported numbers of COVID-19 itself, health care systems and policies vary significantly across Latin America. Data on these types of metrics can help us get an idea of which nations are most ready to contain and treat coronavirus, and which may be least prepared to do so. Two simple measures of health care system capacity are hospital beds per capita and doctors and nurses per capita, serving as proxies for both basic health infrastructure and the quantity of medical personnel. In Figure 5, these two measures are plotted against one another for comparison, with each nation shaded darker blue the wealthier it is on a per capita basis.

For the most part, wealthier nations in Latin America have both more hospital beds and health professionals per capita than their poorer neighbors, and will thus be able to handle a larger strain on their health care system. Some countries stand out. Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Barbados have all clearly put major effort into developing certain aspects of their health care system, while Cuba’s system is by far the most prepared in terms of sheer capacity despite Cuba being less wealthy. Panama, the worst-off country in the region right now, has put significantly less investment in health care capacity than other nations of a similar relatively high-income. Dominica and St. Vincent and the Grenadines punch well-above their weight here considering their GDP per capita. Finally, three nations stand out in their unique unpreparedness for a serious health crisis: Guatemala, Haiti, and Honduras. This is especially important to note as the data presented above indicate that these three countries are all among the countries with the lowest testing rates. Not only are the countries particularly vulnerable, but we also have little information about how widespread the virus is within them.

It perhaps comes as little surprise that three of the most vulnerable countries are also three of the most impoverished nations in the hemisphere. Just as people living below the poverty line are most vulnerable, so too are the most impoverished countries. While the countries with the largest outbreaks in raw numbers will likely receive the lion’s share of attention, it is important to keep in mind that small states — including many small island nations — will face significant outbreaks on their own right.

Though COVID-19 was slow to appear in worrying numbers in Latin America and the Caribbean, the number of infected people in the region is now rising rapidly. Between March 1 and April 1, total confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus in Latin America rose from 5 to 25,500. In the first half of April, that number nearly tripled to 75,200. The US currently has the highest rate of reported COVID-19 cases per capita of any country in the Western Hemisphere, but this may be primarily because it saw its first case weeks earlier. Latin America may still have a similarly overwhelming case load coming its way.

Like in other regions around the world, the impacts of the pandemic are not evenly distributed throughout Latin America and the Caribbean. Infections are concentrated in certain countries and certain areas within countries; policy responses and health care systems differ from country to country, and from region to region within countries. 

Current Cases

The majority of confirmed Latin American cases are in just a handful of countries, with Brazil making up more than a third of all reported cases. Looking at the raw number of reported cases can help give us an idea of where the disease is, but looking only at the overall numbers may obscure serious outbreaks in smaller nations. Additionally, Figure 1 makes it clear that some countries have large numbers of total cases per capita, but much smaller numbers of active cases per capita due to recoveries and deaths. Figure 2 presents national data of confirmed active COVID-19 cases per 1,000 people. 

As can be seen, measuring confirmed cases in this manner highlights some potentially significant outbreaks that have thus far largely occurred under the radar. The highest overall active rate of infection right now can be found in Panama, which has more than double the rate seen in Ecuador, the Dominican Republic, and Chile, the next most-infected nations. Along with Peru, the outbreaks in Ecuador and Chile suggest that COVID-19 is more widespread on the Western Pacific coast of South America. Accounting for population size also illustrates that there appears to be significant outbreaks in some smaller Caribbean nations as well, with the Dominican Republic, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, and Grenada all making the top ten.

There are reasons to question these numbers. First, even if they all reported in good faith, each nation has its own sets of standards and collection mechanisms for reporting this data, meaning that each nation has differences in how their COVID-19 numbers are put together. Even more problematic, however, is the matter of testing. COVID-19 cases, recoveries, and deaths can only be reported if the virus is first diagnosed through testing, and the availability of testing varies widely. The inconsistency in testing across the region may also prevent us from having an accurate picture of the disease’s spread. Though not all countries in Latin America are reporting their testing numbers, a look at the data reveals that many nations in the region may be drastically underreporting confirmed cases. 

To get an idea of which countries are testing more than others, Figure 3 presents tests per 1,000 people for those countries with available data, with darker green illustrating more testing and white illustrating less.

The gaps between testing rates and reported active case rates can shed some light on who is underreporting most. Figure 4 plots tests per million people against active COVID-19 cases with a trendline that indicates how much an additional amount of testing yields in additional cases on average. Venezuela is excluded from this chart because they have recently received large shipments of medical supplies from China which dramatically expanded their testing capacity in just the last week, while their case numbers have remained relatively low; this suggests that it’s unlikely they’ve had a chance to deploy the tests and report back more accurate numbers accordingly.

If a country appears above the trendline, it indicates that it has a higher number of active cases than we would expect for a country in the region given its number of tests; if it appears below, it has fewer cases than would be expected.

This visualization tells us that the high levels of COVID-19 reported in some countries, like Chile and Panama, is in part due to the fact that they have some of the highest testing rates in Latin America. Unlike Chile, however, Panama’s placement high above the trendline indicates that it does in fact have a very serious outbreak on hand. Other countries with above-average cases per test include Antigua and Barbuda, the Dominican Republic, Grenada, Ecuador, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Of the countries that have reported their testing rates, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, and Bolivia have the lowest. It is no coincidence that these are some of the poorest and most underdeveloped countries in Latin America: testing rates correlate significantly with both GDP per capita and the UN’s Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index. Because the accuracy of coronavirus rates rises with more testing, we can’t be sure how widespread COVID-19 actually is in these countries.

There is another complication: the first cases of COVID-19 appeared at different times in different countries, and there is a clear relationship between how long it’s been since the beginning of an outbreak and how many total cases a nation has had. As such, it’s worth keeping an eye on the last countries to see cases appear, as these are nations likely to witness the most future growth. Examples include Belize, El Salvador, Grenada, Haiti, and Nicaragua.

On a more positive note, a few nations like Costa Rica, Cuba, and Uruguay appear to have handled the crisis fairly well so far, with a low number of active cases per thousand even when taking into account relatively high testing rates and the fact that their first cases appeared over a month ago.

Health Care Systems

Like the reported numbers of COVID-19 itself, health care systems and policies vary significantly across Latin America. Data on these types of metrics can help us get an idea of which nations are most ready to contain and treat coronavirus, and which may be least prepared to do so. Two simple measures of health care system capacity are hospital beds per capita and doctors and nurses per capita, serving as proxies for both basic health infrastructure and the quantity of medical personnel. In Figure 5, these two measures are plotted against one another for comparison, with each nation shaded darker blue the wealthier it is on a per capita basis.

For the most part, wealthier nations in Latin America have both more hospital beds and health professionals per capita than their poorer neighbors, and will thus be able to handle a larger strain on their health care system. Some countries stand out. Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Barbados have all clearly put major effort into developing certain aspects of their health care system, while Cuba’s system is by far the most prepared in terms of sheer capacity despite Cuba being less wealthy. Panama, the worst-off country in the region right now, has put significantly less investment in health care capacity than other nations of a similar relatively high-income. Dominica and St. Vincent and the Grenadines punch well-above their weight here considering their GDP per capita. Finally, three nations stand out in their unique unpreparedness for a serious health crisis: Guatemala, Haiti, and Honduras. This is especially important to note as the data presented above indicate that these three countries are all among the countries with the lowest testing rates. Not only are the countries particularly vulnerable, but we also have little information about how widespread the virus is within them.

It perhaps comes as little surprise that three of the most vulnerable countries are also three of the most impoverished nations in the hemisphere. Just as people living below the poverty line are most vulnerable, so too are the most impoverished countries. While the countries with the largest outbreaks in raw numbers will likely receive the lion’s share of attention, it is important to keep in mind that small states — including many small island nations — will face significant outbreaks on their own right.

As of noon on April 8th the total number of Covid-19 positive cases reported by Brazil’s health ministry exceeded 14,000 and the number of deaths exceeded 700. This is, by far, the highest number of reported cases in Latin America (though Ecuador has a greater number of reported cases and deaths on a per capita basis).  The actual number of cases is likely many times greater, given that the current rate of testing for Covid-19 in Brazil is still very low – 258 per million, compared to 3,159 per million in Chile, 6,423 per million in the U.S. and 10,962 per million in Germany. In São Paulo, Brazil’s biggest city, and the hardest hit urban area in the country, the local health secretariat is reportedly only providing tallies for severe cases of the virus.

Far right Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro, an admirer and close ally of President Trump, has been seriously downplaying the gravity of the pandemic. He has referred to the virus as a “little flu” and has openly flouted social distancing measures, promoting political rallies in mid March and wading into crowds of supporters.  Ironically, prior to the recent rallies, senior members of Bolsonaro’s cabinet tested positive for the virus following an international trip that included a meeting with Trump at Mar-a-Lago.  These and other members of the delegation were among the first imported cases of Covid-19 to Brazil (and it is rumored that Bolsonaro himself was infected).

As seems to be the case with his U.S. counterpart and mentor, Bolsonaro’s rejection of experts’ recommendations has a clear motivation: keeping the economy running at all costs.  Even before the virus arrived, Brazil’s economy was in sad shape, with no signs of real recovery following a deep recession in 2015-16. Unemployment remained stubbornly high (more than 11.6 percent in February) and economic growth stood at less than one percent during the first year of Bolsonaro’s presidency (as might be expected given the government’s constitutionally-mandated austerity policies).  As is the case in most of Latin America (see ECLAC’s grim predictions for the region), business state and local shut-downs and stay-at-home measures designed to save hundreds of thousands of lives are expected to have devastating economic consequences.  Brazil’s biggest bank, Itaú, forecasts as much as 6.4% negative economic growth for 2020 alone if virus containment measures are maintained for an extended period of time.

In response to these and other dire predictions, Brazil’s lower house has passed a “war budget” amendment to the constitution, which – if approved by 3/5 of the Senate – will ease current draconian budget constraints and allow the state to engage in significant deficit spending to try to address the country’s looming health and economic emergencies.  Meanwhile, many of Brazil’s state governors have ordered non-essential businesses to close and have supported social distancing measures. In response, Bolsonaro has engaged in heated clashes with governors and threatened to issue a decree forcing businesses to re-open throughout the country. He has also butted heads with his own health minister, Luis Henrique Mandetta, who has supported strong social distancing protocols, threatening at one point to fire him.  Currently Mandetta has the highest ratings of any politician in the country while Bolsonaro’s favorability ratings have been sinking. Millions of people in cities across Brazil have protested Bolsonaro’s dismissive approach with regular panelaços – loud, pot-banging protests staged from residents’ windows and balconies. Brazil’s major leftwing leaders have called for the president’s resignation. 

It’s possible that Bolsonaro is making a long-term political calculation,  attempting to position himself to better weather the coming economic tsunami by blaming others for taking lifesaving measures that shut down much of the economy.  Here again, his behavior bears similarities with that of the occupant of the White House.

Regardless of what social distancing steps are taken throughout Brazil, many observers believe that the pandemic will exact a particularly terrible human and economic toll in the country’s poor favelas, where around 11 million people live.  Historically neglected by public authorities (apart from police agents engaged in increasingly widespread extrajudicial killings targeting Black youth), favela communities have extremely limited access to healthcare resources and water and sanitation infrastructures.  As Brazilian-Colombian researcher Nicole Froio explains in NACLA, many favela residents are simply unable to wash their hands regularly or practice social distancing measures in houses where large families share tiny living spaces.  Given the lack of effective support from the state, favela communities in Río de Janeiro and São Paulo are pooling scant resources to hire round-the-clock medical support. 

Brazil’s rural indigenous communities are also particularly vulnerable, given the fact that they are often located far away from hospitals able to treat infected patients with acute symptoms.  Ironically, the first indigenous Brazilian to test positive for Covid-19 is a healthcare worker who was in contact with an infected medical doctor who was visiting a remote Kokoma community.  Researchers fear that the virus could wreak enormous destruction and havoc in communities, especially as those at highest risk – the elderly – are typically the pillars of social order and transmitters of traditional knowledge.  In response to the pandemic, many indigenous peoples are likely to disperse into small groups, according to Dr. Sofia Mendonça, a researcher at the Federal University of São Paulo. Amnesty International reports that some communities are blocking roads and going into voluntary isolation to keep the pandemic at bay.    

Amnesty notes that Brazil’s indigenous communities are facing two sorts of attacks now.  Alongside the threat of Covid-19 infections, grileiros – those that illegally appropriate land – are taking advantage of the pandemic, and the fact that indigenous communities are prevented from effectively patrolling their territories, to step up the use of indigenous lands for illegal logging, agriculture and mining enterprises.  Government protection of indigenous lands has already been severely weakened under Bolsonaro – who has sought to open up indigenous lands for outside exploitation – and indigenous leaders who resist land invaders are being threatened and killed at an increasing rate.  On March 31st, Zezico Rodrigues Guajajara, a well-known Guajajara leader and opponent of illegal logging in Araribóia indigenous lands, was assassinated.  It was the fifth murder of a Guajajara land rights advocate so far this year, according to Amazon Watch.  

As of noon on April 8th the total number of Covid-19 positive cases reported by Brazil’s health ministry exceeded 14,000 and the number of deaths exceeded 700. This is, by far, the highest number of reported cases in Latin America (though Ecuador has a greater number of reported cases and deaths on a per capita basis).  The actual number of cases is likely many times greater, given that the current rate of testing for Covid-19 in Brazil is still very low – 258 per million, compared to 3,159 per million in Chile, 6,423 per million in the U.S. and 10,962 per million in Germany. In São Paulo, Brazil’s biggest city, and the hardest hit urban area in the country, the local health secretariat is reportedly only providing tallies for severe cases of the virus.

Far right Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro, an admirer and close ally of President Trump, has been seriously downplaying the gravity of the pandemic. He has referred to the virus as a “little flu” and has openly flouted social distancing measures, promoting political rallies in mid March and wading into crowds of supporters.  Ironically, prior to the recent rallies, senior members of Bolsonaro’s cabinet tested positive for the virus following an international trip that included a meeting with Trump at Mar-a-Lago.  These and other members of the delegation were among the first imported cases of Covid-19 to Brazil (and it is rumored that Bolsonaro himself was infected).

As seems to be the case with his U.S. counterpart and mentor, Bolsonaro’s rejection of experts’ recommendations has a clear motivation: keeping the economy running at all costs.  Even before the virus arrived, Brazil’s economy was in sad shape, with no signs of real recovery following a deep recession in 2015-16. Unemployment remained stubbornly high (more than 11.6 percent in February) and economic growth stood at less than one percent during the first year of Bolsonaro’s presidency (as might be expected given the government’s constitutionally-mandated austerity policies).  As is the case in most of Latin America (see ECLAC’s grim predictions for the region), business state and local shut-downs and stay-at-home measures designed to save hundreds of thousands of lives are expected to have devastating economic consequences.  Brazil’s biggest bank, Itaú, forecasts as much as 6.4% negative economic growth for 2020 alone if virus containment measures are maintained for an extended period of time.

In response to these and other dire predictions, Brazil’s lower house has passed a “war budget” amendment to the constitution, which – if approved by 3/5 of the Senate – will ease current draconian budget constraints and allow the state to engage in significant deficit spending to try to address the country’s looming health and economic emergencies.  Meanwhile, many of Brazil’s state governors have ordered non-essential businesses to close and have supported social distancing measures. In response, Bolsonaro has engaged in heated clashes with governors and threatened to issue a decree forcing businesses to re-open throughout the country. He has also butted heads with his own health minister, Luis Henrique Mandetta, who has supported strong social distancing protocols, threatening at one point to fire him.  Currently Mandetta has the highest ratings of any politician in the country while Bolsonaro’s favorability ratings have been sinking. Millions of people in cities across Brazil have protested Bolsonaro’s dismissive approach with regular panelaços – loud, pot-banging protests staged from residents’ windows and balconies. Brazil’s major leftwing leaders have called for the president’s resignation. 

It’s possible that Bolsonaro is making a long-term political calculation,  attempting to position himself to better weather the coming economic tsunami by blaming others for taking lifesaving measures that shut down much of the economy.  Here again, his behavior bears similarities with that of the occupant of the White House.

Regardless of what social distancing steps are taken throughout Brazil, many observers believe that the pandemic will exact a particularly terrible human and economic toll in the country’s poor favelas, where around 11 million people live.  Historically neglected by public authorities (apart from police agents engaged in increasingly widespread extrajudicial killings targeting Black youth), favela communities have extremely limited access to healthcare resources and water and sanitation infrastructures.  As Brazilian-Colombian researcher Nicole Froio explains in NACLA, many favela residents are simply unable to wash their hands regularly or practice social distancing measures in houses where large families share tiny living spaces.  Given the lack of effective support from the state, favela communities in Río de Janeiro and São Paulo are pooling scant resources to hire round-the-clock medical support. 

Brazil’s rural indigenous communities are also particularly vulnerable, given the fact that they are often located far away from hospitals able to treat infected patients with acute symptoms.  Ironically, the first indigenous Brazilian to test positive for Covid-19 is a healthcare worker who was in contact with an infected medical doctor who was visiting a remote Kokoma community.  Researchers fear that the virus could wreak enormous destruction and havoc in communities, especially as those at highest risk – the elderly – are typically the pillars of social order and transmitters of traditional knowledge.  In response to the pandemic, many indigenous peoples are likely to disperse into small groups, according to Dr. Sofia Mendonça, a researcher at the Federal University of São Paulo. Amnesty International reports that some communities are blocking roads and going into voluntary isolation to keep the pandemic at bay.    

Amnesty notes that Brazil’s indigenous communities are facing two sorts of attacks now.  Alongside the threat of Covid-19 infections, grileiros – those that illegally appropriate land – are taking advantage of the pandemic, and the fact that indigenous communities are prevented from effectively patrolling their territories, to step up the use of indigenous lands for illegal logging, agriculture and mining enterprises.  Government protection of indigenous lands has already been severely weakened under Bolsonaro – who has sought to open up indigenous lands for outside exploitation – and indigenous leaders who resist land invaders are being threatened and killed at an increasing rate.  On March 31st, Zezico Rodrigues Guajajara, a well-known Guajajara leader and opponent of illegal logging in Araribóia indigenous lands, was assassinated.  It was the fifth murder of a Guajajara land rights advocate so far this year, according to Amazon Watch.  

The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) has lowered regional GDP growth projections from positive 1.3 percent to negative 1.8 percent in light of the global COVID-19 pandemic. ECLAC projects that, with such a growth rate, poverty and extreme poverty will increase by 34 million and 23.3 million, respectively. In an op-ed, ECLAC Executive Secretary Alicia Bárcena notes that more than 47 percent of the region’s population does not currently have access to social security, placing the region’s elderly population in a dangerous position.

Bárcena writes:

In the current situation, it cannot be overlooked that massive fiscal stimulus is needed to bolster health services and protect income and jobs, among the numerous challenges at hand. The provision of essential goods (medication, food, energy) cannot be disrupted today, and universal access to testing for COVID-19 must be guaranteed along with medical care for all those who need it. Providing our health care systems with the necessary funds is an unavoidable imperative.

When we talk about massive fiscal stimulus, we are also talking about financing the social protection systems that care for the most vulnerable sectors. We are talking about rolling out non-contributory programs such as direct cash transfers, financing for unemployment insurance, and benefits for the underemployed and self-employed.

Likewise, central banks have to ensure liquidity so the production apparatus can guarantee its continued functioning. These efforts must translate into support for companies with zero-interest loans for paying wages. In addition, companies and households must be aided by the postponement of loan, mortgage and rent payments. Many interventions will be needed to ensure that the chain of payments is not interrupted. Development banks should play a significant role in this.

And, certainly, multilateral financing bodies will have to consider new policies on low-interest loans and offer relief and deferments on current debt servicing to create fiscal space.

Economic distress will come through various channels in the coming months and will not be solely tied to domestic efforts to slow the spread of COVID-19. Remittances, a key source of revenue in many countries, are expected to diminish drastically. The region’s exports are also likely to take a hit as economic growth slows among trading partners. Commodities, which many countries in the region rely upon for foreign exchange, are experiencing significant price declines. ECLAC estimates a possible 10.7 percentage point reduction in the value of the region’s exports this year. The collapse of the tourism industry, especially important in the Caribbean, will also have significant impacts — in some countries calamitous.

Bárcena acknowledged that ECLAC’s projection of -1.8 percent growth in 2020 could turn out to be over-optimistic. Some private estimates already anticipate a much larger shock. Goldman Sachs, for example, projected -3.8 percent growth for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, and Peru — which together account for some 89 percent of regional GDP.

S&P Global, although more optimistic than either ECLAC or Goldman in projecting -1.3 percent growth, notes that the risk is very clearly on the downside. As opposed to the six-quarter recession during the Great Recession, however, S&P projects only two quarters of negative regional growth in 2020. The current situation differs in another key regard, according to S&P: regional growth has been slow in previous years, placing economies in an already fragile place before the current slowdown. “Fixed investment has been either declining or slowing across most of the region in recent years,” the ratings agency notes. Further, S&P estimates that the length of the downturn will depend greatly on the public health response of individual countries:

The initial economic policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Latin America was similar to other parts of the world: emergency interest rate cuts and programs designed to boost liquidity, followed by fiscal stimulus measures in some countries, most notably in Chile, where a 5% of GDP recovery package was announced. These measures will help curb the fall in demand and reinvigorate the economic recovery once the pandemic wanes. However, the public health policy response, which has diverged across the region, will determine the length of the health crisis, and, as a result, affect the length of the economic crisis.

Unfortunately, few countries in the region are well positioned to robustly respond to the crisis. The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) points out that 21 of the 26 regional countries borrowing from the IDB reported current account deficits in 2019. With an abrupt halt in countries’ access to foreign capital, many could find themselves in an unsustainable position. Early evidence points to an even greater outflow of capital from the region than during the 2009 financial crisis. Only Brazil and Mexico have capped dollar access via a bilateral swap line with the Federal Reserve to placate this outflow. In contrast to previous periods, however, the COVID-19 pandemic is a truly global problem, meaning that it will be difficult for countries to increase exports to make up for the lack of foreign capital.

Further, traditional stimulus measures are likely to be less impactful than during previous economic downturns given that many businesses will remain closed as part of the public health response to COVID-19. All of this makes a coordinated, international response imperative. The IMF has pledged to increase its lending capacity in response to the crisis, but it is unlikely the fund has the capacity to process loan requests from the more than 80 countries that have already inquired. Further, IMF-supported austerity policies ― such as those in Ecuador and Argentina ― have left those countries in an even worse position to respond to the current situation.

One way for the IMF to respond to the immediate needs of the region ― and developing nations across the globe ― would be with a significant allocation of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), which function as a reserve currency. In response to the Global Recession in 2009, the IMF increased SDRs by some $250 billion, providing necessary financial lifelines for countries without access to foreign capital. But the current need is far greater. The IMF itself has estimated that developing countries will need some $2.5 trillion to adequately respond to the situation. CEPR economists Mark Weisbrot and Andrés Arauz have called for a 3 trillion SDR allocation (i.e., $4 trillion). The UN is calling for an allocation of 1 trillion SDRs, while some of the largest and most influential economic policy organizations in the US, like the Peterson Institute for International Economics, the Center for Global Development, and the Institute for International Finance support a 500 billion SDR issuance.

What is clear is that the cost of doing nothing is tremendous. The Imperial College of London estimates that, in a worst-case scenario, more than 3 million could die in Latin America and the Caribbean and more than 560 million could be sickened due to COVID-19. The study estimates that, if significant “suppression strategies” are implemented, the death toll could be reduced to 158,000.

But it is important to remember that regardless of the severity in terms of health or the economy, it is likely to be the most vulnerable in the region who will be most affected. As ECLAC notes, the COVID-induced recession will likely push more than 30 million people into poverty throughout the region. Further, many regional economies have expansive informal labor markets that will make it extraordinarily difficult to enforce physical distancing responses to COVID-19. While the wealthy will have resources to stay at home and survive, it will be the most vulnerable, forced to continue working just to live, who will bear the brunt of COVID-19. That will be true in terms of health outcomes as well as economic outcomes, and policy responses should be formulated with that consideration at the forefront.

The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) has lowered regional GDP growth projections from positive 1.3 percent to negative 1.8 percent in light of the global COVID-19 pandemic. ECLAC projects that, with such a growth rate, poverty and extreme poverty will increase by 34 million and 23.3 million, respectively. In an op-ed, ECLAC Executive Secretary Alicia Bárcena notes that more than 47 percent of the region’s population does not currently have access to social security, placing the region’s elderly population in a dangerous position.

Bárcena writes:

In the current situation, it cannot be overlooked that massive fiscal stimulus is needed to bolster health services and protect income and jobs, among the numerous challenges at hand. The provision of essential goods (medication, food, energy) cannot be disrupted today, and universal access to testing for COVID-19 must be guaranteed along with medical care for all those who need it. Providing our health care systems with the necessary funds is an unavoidable imperative.

When we talk about massive fiscal stimulus, we are also talking about financing the social protection systems that care for the most vulnerable sectors. We are talking about rolling out non-contributory programs such as direct cash transfers, financing for unemployment insurance, and benefits for the underemployed and self-employed.

Likewise, central banks have to ensure liquidity so the production apparatus can guarantee its continued functioning. These efforts must translate into support for companies with zero-interest loans for paying wages. In addition, companies and households must be aided by the postponement of loan, mortgage and rent payments. Many interventions will be needed to ensure that the chain of payments is not interrupted. Development banks should play a significant role in this.

And, certainly, multilateral financing bodies will have to consider new policies on low-interest loans and offer relief and deferments on current debt servicing to create fiscal space.

Economic distress will come through various channels in the coming months and will not be solely tied to domestic efforts to slow the spread of COVID-19. Remittances, a key source of revenue in many countries, are expected to diminish drastically. The region’s exports are also likely to take a hit as economic growth slows among trading partners. Commodities, which many countries in the region rely upon for foreign exchange, are experiencing significant price declines. ECLAC estimates a possible 10.7 percentage point reduction in the value of the region’s exports this year. The collapse of the tourism industry, especially important in the Caribbean, will also have significant impacts — in some countries calamitous.

Bárcena acknowledged that ECLAC’s projection of -1.8 percent growth in 2020 could turn out to be over-optimistic. Some private estimates already anticipate a much larger shock. Goldman Sachs, for example, projected -3.8 percent growth for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, and Peru — which together account for some 89 percent of regional GDP.

S&P Global, although more optimistic than either ECLAC or Goldman in projecting -1.3 percent growth, notes that the risk is very clearly on the downside. As opposed to the six-quarter recession during the Great Recession, however, S&P projects only two quarters of negative regional growth in 2020. The current situation differs in another key regard, according to S&P: regional growth has been slow in previous years, placing economies in an already fragile place before the current slowdown. “Fixed investment has been either declining or slowing across most of the region in recent years,” the ratings agency notes. Further, S&P estimates that the length of the downturn will depend greatly on the public health response of individual countries:

The initial economic policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Latin America was similar to other parts of the world: emergency interest rate cuts and programs designed to boost liquidity, followed by fiscal stimulus measures in some countries, most notably in Chile, where a 5% of GDP recovery package was announced. These measures will help curb the fall in demand and reinvigorate the economic recovery once the pandemic wanes. However, the public health policy response, which has diverged across the region, will determine the length of the health crisis, and, as a result, affect the length of the economic crisis.

Unfortunately, few countries in the region are well positioned to robustly respond to the crisis. The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) points out that 21 of the 26 regional countries borrowing from the IDB reported current account deficits in 2019. With an abrupt halt in countries’ access to foreign capital, many could find themselves in an unsustainable position. Early evidence points to an even greater outflow of capital from the region than during the 2009 financial crisis. Only Brazil and Mexico have capped dollar access via a bilateral swap line with the Federal Reserve to placate this outflow. In contrast to previous periods, however, the COVID-19 pandemic is a truly global problem, meaning that it will be difficult for countries to increase exports to make up for the lack of foreign capital.

Further, traditional stimulus measures are likely to be less impactful than during previous economic downturns given that many businesses will remain closed as part of the public health response to COVID-19. All of this makes a coordinated, international response imperative. The IMF has pledged to increase its lending capacity in response to the crisis, but it is unlikely the fund has the capacity to process loan requests from the more than 80 countries that have already inquired. Further, IMF-supported austerity policies ― such as those in Ecuador and Argentina ― have left those countries in an even worse position to respond to the current situation.

One way for the IMF to respond to the immediate needs of the region ― and developing nations across the globe ― would be with a significant allocation of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), which function as a reserve currency. In response to the Global Recession in 2009, the IMF increased SDRs by some $250 billion, providing necessary financial lifelines for countries without access to foreign capital. But the current need is far greater. The IMF itself has estimated that developing countries will need some $2.5 trillion to adequately respond to the situation. CEPR economists Mark Weisbrot and Andrés Arauz have called for a 3 trillion SDR allocation (i.e., $4 trillion). The UN is calling for an allocation of 1 trillion SDRs, while some of the largest and most influential economic policy organizations in the US, like the Peterson Institute for International Economics, the Center for Global Development, and the Institute for International Finance support a 500 billion SDR issuance.

What is clear is that the cost of doing nothing is tremendous. The Imperial College of London estimates that, in a worst-case scenario, more than 3 million could die in Latin America and the Caribbean and more than 560 million could be sickened due to COVID-19. The study estimates that, if significant “suppression strategies” are implemented, the death toll could be reduced to 158,000.

But it is important to remember that regardless of the severity in terms of health or the economy, it is likely to be the most vulnerable in the region who will be most affected. As ECLAC notes, the COVID-induced recession will likely push more than 30 million people into poverty throughout the region. Further, many regional economies have expansive informal labor markets that will make it extraordinarily difficult to enforce physical distancing responses to COVID-19. While the wealthy will have resources to stay at home and survive, it will be the most vulnerable, forced to continue working just to live, who will bear the brunt of COVID-19. That will be true in terms of health outcomes as well as economic outcomes, and policy responses should be formulated with that consideration at the forefront.

Guilty until proven innocent. That appears to be the electoral fraud approach favored by Walter D. Valdivia and Diego Escobari in their recent piece in Project Syndicate. It is also the exact approach the Organization of American States (OAS) had a responsibility to avoid in their audit of the October 2019 Bolivian election. As we write in our response to the OAS, citing the International Foundation for Electoral Systems:

[A]n audit that results from a losing candidate’s allegations of fraud means “that the election commission is starting from a position of weakness … Essentially, the electoral process is considered guilty until proven innocent, often undermining public confidence in the electoral system.” [emphasis added.]

Let us preface this with some very important context that Valdivia and Escobari (V&E) left out of their piece. On October 21, 2019 — the day after the election, and as the official counting of the votes had only begun — the OAS put out a press release asserting that the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE)

presented [preliminary count] data with an inexplicable change in trend that drastically modifies the fate of the election and generates a loss of confidence in the electoral process. [emphasis added.]

The OAS went so far as to presume that a second round in the presidential election would be coming, despite the fact that the official count was less than two-thirds complete.

With its irresponsible press release, the OAS itself actively “generated a loss of confidence in the electoral process.” The OAS statement emboldened a political opposition that had openly questioned the validity of the election even prior to the first vote being cast. Protests spread throughout the country:

The OAS observers confirmed that the violence forced the interruption of the [official count] in six departments: La Paz, Cochabamba, Chuquisaca, Potosí, Oruro and Beni. In Potosí, Pando and Tarija, the infrastructure of the Departmental Electoral Tribunal was completely burned, as were the facilities of the Civic Registry Service in Potosí and Chuquisaca.

Not until November 10 did the OAS even attempt to provide evidence to support their claim of a “drastic” and “inexplicable” trend change. One prominent statistician described their preliminary statistical analysis as “a joke.” In the meantime, our own analysis of the electoral data clearly showed that the fate of the election was foreseeable well before the “inexplicable change” revealed itself in the preliminary count. In so far as the trend did change, the swing toward Morales’s first-round victory was entirely predictable.

Absent an “inexplicable change” which “drastically modifies the fate of the election,” the whole OAS audit falls apart. It is the logical starting point for any analysis of the election. In this context, the significance of the OAS’s initial statement the day after the election cannot be understated.

That also means that the question of whether or not the OAS claim is supportable is bound to be contentious. So what do V&E have to say?

John Curiel and Jack R. Williams (C&W) claimed in The Washington Post to have “found no reason to suspect fraud.”

Given its narrow scope, the C&W study cannot, in fact, dispel doubts about the election’s fraud. Nonetheless, the researchers’ widely publicized blanket statement detonated in Bolivia like a cluster bomb …

Put aside the gross hyperbole. V&E misrepresent the headline — not even written by C&W. The full sentence reads “Our research found no reason to suspect fraud.” [emphasis added.] For their part, C&W emphasize the “narrow scope” of that research, writing:

We do not evaluate whether these irregularities point to deliberate interference — or reflect the problems of an underfunded system with poorly trained election officials. Instead, we comment on the statistical evidence. [emphasis added.]

So yes, neither the report by C&W nor their piece in the Monkey Cage proves there was no fraud. C&W did not set out to prove there was no fraud — merely to investigate whether the data supported a specific claim by the OAS. There is no amount of analysis that can suffice to prove there was no fraud. Neither expanding the scope of the analysis, nor changing any underlying assumptions, can possibly overcome this impossible hurdle. And C&W nowhere imply that they have.

However, C&W do raise doubts about the OAS allegations of fraud to the extent that they are conditioned on the supposedly “inexplicable change.” V&E simply attempt to shift the burden of proof. But the burden of proof absolutely must lie with those alleging fraud. Otherwise, mere allegation — impossible to disprove —will on its own suffice to invalidate an election. This is clearly intolerable.

Even if sufficient, credible, evidence for fraud is found, that is not sufficient by itself to overturn an election. If evidence against a particular person is established, that person should face legal consequences. But even an election with established fraud must not be overturned unless the legally cast ballots would point to a different outcome. In this light, there are two questions: is there credible evidence of fraud, and what impact might it have had on the election?

Despite its obvious importance to the overall fraud narrative, V&E criticize C&W for focusing “on the vote-reporting blackout on election night ― a single event that had little to do with structural fraud.”

This is especially comical as Escobari (along with his coauthor Gary Hoover) have an entire paper based exclusively on the premise that the “blackout” permitted them to “estimate the size of voting fraud” by comparing results before and after the interruption. V&E even cite that paper, claiming that they “found statistically significant evidence of fraud.”

V&E move the goalposts. The overriding concern regarding the election is whether or not the legitimate votes sufficiently favored Morales to warrant a first-round victory. Because the official results showed Morales winning by more than one vote, the size of the alleged fraud matters much more than the statistical significance.

However, even in that paper, Escobari and Hoover (E&H) in no way found evidence of fraud. “Fraud” in their paper is a simple catch-all for any difference between the pre- and post-“blackout” vote that their models fail to explain. Specifically, the model that E&H favor fails to account for any differences between votes counted before and after the interruption — except for the fact of the timing. That is, they do not even attempt in that model to explain why the late votes favored Morales more heavily than the early votes.

Once they do account for geographic differences (municipality and precinct controls) they find that these are sufficient to entirely explain how the late break for Morales put him over the 10 percent margin required to claim victory in the first round. This confirms — not contradicts — C&W. Their results affirm what we have argued since October 22: that the change in trend was entirely predictable.

V&E also cite the work of Rómulo Chumacero as “robust” support for their argument. We are still in the process of attempting to reproduce those results, but several of his summary tables appear to show that geography explained the late votes that delivered Morales’s first-round victory. Unlike the OAS, Chumacero has so far cooperated in responding to substantive questions about his methodology critical for reproducing his results.

Nevertheless, V&E diminish findings that geography accounts for the change in trend:

[L]ack of evidence of trend-change after the TREP blackout is not evidence of an absence of fraud. If fraud was already baked into the 84% of votes reported before the interruption, then C&W’s results suggesting no shift in trend when reporting resumed are incapable of shedding light on the existence of fraud before the blackout.

This is pure burden-shifting. C&W properly address OAS allegations about the shift in trend. But there is no evidence of fraud “baked into the 84%” either. The OAS provides none; V&E provide none. There is no analysis that may be performed to satisfy V&E in this regard; by their own logic, lack of evidence is not evidence of an absence. It is up to V&E or the OAS to provide proof.

Still, if we take V&E seriously here, then we must also account for the fact that evidence is lacking that there was no fraud in favor of the opposition baked into the 84 percent. We may just as easily suggest that Morales’s victory was close only because the opposition committed fraud. Simply making the suggestion does not make it credible. Surely, E&H would not accept this suggestion to be a valid critique of their work. Why is V&E’s argument of C&W any more valid? In any case, the entirety of E&H’s analysis is conditioned on the idea that the 84 percent is clean. Absent that assumption, E&H’s analysis offers nothing.

V&E further call out C&W for comparing late-counted precincts to similarly sized precincts counted early. Yet they merely suggest that this could be a problem “[i]f electoral fraud is easier to engineer in small precincts.” Again, there lies the unstated assumption that such fraud would be in support of Morales. The presumption of guilt persists.

Nevertheless, the OAS levered the suspicion of fraud — suspicion it helped manufacture and promote — into a demonstrably unbalanced audit of the election. The OAS restricted much of the focus of its audit exclusively on MAS-heavy geographic areas with no consideration to the possibility of irregularities occurring elsewhere. Having (inevitably) found irregularities, the OAS pointed to the fact that these areas heavily favored MAS as evidence that the irregularities themselves benefited MAS.

This would be circular logic if the last step held at all. Consider that such a presumption of benefit — even if the OAS had audited more broadly — would actually reward the opposition for spoiling tally sheets where Morales performed best. More importantly, the OAS provides no specific evidence that the legitimate votes cast on the 226 tally sheets it identified as “irregular” should look less favorable to Morales than the official results indicated — let alone to a degree sufficient to invalidate the results. In fact, what we discovered was that the results reported on these 226 tally sheets look almost exactly the same as the non-irregular tally sheets from the same voting centers.

Again, V&E start from a supposition of guilt, stating, “the fact that Morales was even on the ballot at all last October indicated that fraud was afoot.” V&E may not like that the “Constitutional Court caved in” by allowing Morales to run in the 2019 election. It may even suffice to make opponents vigilant in hopes of securing the integrity of the election, but it cannot possibly indicate fraud.

They continue, writing:

In addition, the preponderance of evidence that has since emerged points to rampant electoral fraud. An audit by the Organization of American States (OAS) revealed major irregularities and manipulation, including falsification of poll officials’ signatures, altered tally sheets and databases, and a broken chain of custody. Most damning of all, the transmission of voting data was redirected to two unauthorized hidden servers.

We discuss these concerns in our report, but neither V&E nor the OAS provide any credible evidence that these irregularities in any way favored Morales, let alone were part of a coordinated attempt to manipulate the electoral results. According to the public reports of both private contractors involved in the election, the TSE actually believed at the time that fraud was being committed against Morales.

Even the “broken chain of custody” concerns raised by the OAS included opposition protesters burning electoral materials. The OAS used this to cast doubt on the election results saying this hindered their ability to verify the results. That may be true, but it is the height of chutzpah to accuse electoral authorities of manipulating the election by pointing to opposition destruction of electoral materials. V&E go even further and actually point to this destruction as evidence of fraud.

There is no credible evidence that Morales failed to win by the necessary margin based exclusively on legitimate votes. V&E have no basis for criticizing C&W — who make no claims unsupported by their research. V&E don’t even disagree substantially with the findings of C&W. Rather, V&E must accurately report what others argue and quit pretending that their inability to model the election results justifies their cries of fraud.

Ultimately, the most important thing is whether or not the actions taken by the OAS were justified. By denying the clearest explanation for the change in trend, using that ignorance to conduct a completely biased audit of the election, and then misrepresenting the report’s findings as proof of fraud, the record is clear: the OAS’s actions have been consistently irresponsible.

Guilty until proven innocent. That appears to be the electoral fraud approach favored by Walter D. Valdivia and Diego Escobari in their recent piece in Project Syndicate. It is also the exact approach the Organization of American States (OAS) had a responsibility to avoid in their audit of the October 2019 Bolivian election. As we write in our response to the OAS, citing the International Foundation for Electoral Systems:

[A]n audit that results from a losing candidate’s allegations of fraud means “that the election commission is starting from a position of weakness … Essentially, the electoral process is considered guilty until proven innocent, often undermining public confidence in the electoral system.” [emphasis added.]

Let us preface this with some very important context that Valdivia and Escobari (V&E) left out of their piece. On October 21, 2019 — the day after the election, and as the official counting of the votes had only begun — the OAS put out a press release asserting that the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE)

presented [preliminary count] data with an inexplicable change in trend that drastically modifies the fate of the election and generates a loss of confidence in the electoral process. [emphasis added.]

The OAS went so far as to presume that a second round in the presidential election would be coming, despite the fact that the official count was less than two-thirds complete.

With its irresponsible press release, the OAS itself actively “generated a loss of confidence in the electoral process.” The OAS statement emboldened a political opposition that had openly questioned the validity of the election even prior to the first vote being cast. Protests spread throughout the country:

The OAS observers confirmed that the violence forced the interruption of the [official count] in six departments: La Paz, Cochabamba, Chuquisaca, Potosí, Oruro and Beni. In Potosí, Pando and Tarija, the infrastructure of the Departmental Electoral Tribunal was completely burned, as were the facilities of the Civic Registry Service in Potosí and Chuquisaca.

Not until November 10 did the OAS even attempt to provide evidence to support their claim of a “drastic” and “inexplicable” trend change. One prominent statistician described their preliminary statistical analysis as “a joke.” In the meantime, our own analysis of the electoral data clearly showed that the fate of the election was foreseeable well before the “inexplicable change” revealed itself in the preliminary count. In so far as the trend did change, the swing toward Morales’s first-round victory was entirely predictable.

Absent an “inexplicable change” which “drastically modifies the fate of the election,” the whole OAS audit falls apart. It is the logical starting point for any analysis of the election. In this context, the significance of the OAS’s initial statement the day after the election cannot be understated.

That also means that the question of whether or not the OAS claim is supportable is bound to be contentious. So what do V&E have to say?

John Curiel and Jack R. Williams (C&W) claimed in The Washington Post to have “found no reason to suspect fraud.”

Given its narrow scope, the C&W study cannot, in fact, dispel doubts about the election’s fraud. Nonetheless, the researchers’ widely publicized blanket statement detonated in Bolivia like a cluster bomb …

Put aside the gross hyperbole. V&E misrepresent the headline — not even written by C&W. The full sentence reads “Our research found no reason to suspect fraud.” [emphasis added.] For their part, C&W emphasize the “narrow scope” of that research, writing:

We do not evaluate whether these irregularities point to deliberate interference — or reflect the problems of an underfunded system with poorly trained election officials. Instead, we comment on the statistical evidence. [emphasis added.]

So yes, neither the report by C&W nor their piece in the Monkey Cage proves there was no fraud. C&W did not set out to prove there was no fraud — merely to investigate whether the data supported a specific claim by the OAS. There is no amount of analysis that can suffice to prove there was no fraud. Neither expanding the scope of the analysis, nor changing any underlying assumptions, can possibly overcome this impossible hurdle. And C&W nowhere imply that they have.

However, C&W do raise doubts about the OAS allegations of fraud to the extent that they are conditioned on the supposedly “inexplicable change.” V&E simply attempt to shift the burden of proof. But the burden of proof absolutely must lie with those alleging fraud. Otherwise, mere allegation — impossible to disprove —will on its own suffice to invalidate an election. This is clearly intolerable.

Even if sufficient, credible, evidence for fraud is found, that is not sufficient by itself to overturn an election. If evidence against a particular person is established, that person should face legal consequences. But even an election with established fraud must not be overturned unless the legally cast ballots would point to a different outcome. In this light, there are two questions: is there credible evidence of fraud, and what impact might it have had on the election?

Despite its obvious importance to the overall fraud narrative, V&E criticize C&W for focusing “on the vote-reporting blackout on election night ― a single event that had little to do with structural fraud.”

This is especially comical as Escobari (along with his coauthor Gary Hoover) have an entire paper based exclusively on the premise that the “blackout” permitted them to “estimate the size of voting fraud” by comparing results before and after the interruption. V&E even cite that paper, claiming that they “found statistically significant evidence of fraud.”

V&E move the goalposts. The overriding concern regarding the election is whether or not the legitimate votes sufficiently favored Morales to warrant a first-round victory. Because the official results showed Morales winning by more than one vote, the size of the alleged fraud matters much more than the statistical significance.

However, even in that paper, Escobari and Hoover (E&H) in no way found evidence of fraud. “Fraud” in their paper is a simple catch-all for any difference between the pre- and post-“blackout” vote that their models fail to explain. Specifically, the model that E&H favor fails to account for any differences between votes counted before and after the interruption — except for the fact of the timing. That is, they do not even attempt in that model to explain why the late votes favored Morales more heavily than the early votes.

Once they do account for geographic differences (municipality and precinct controls) they find that these are sufficient to entirely explain how the late break for Morales put him over the 10 percent margin required to claim victory in the first round. This confirms — not contradicts — C&W. Their results affirm what we have argued since October 22: that the change in trend was entirely predictable.

V&E also cite the work of Rómulo Chumacero as “robust” support for their argument. We are still in the process of attempting to reproduce those results, but several of his summary tables appear to show that geography explained the late votes that delivered Morales’s first-round victory. Unlike the OAS, Chumacero has so far cooperated in responding to substantive questions about his methodology critical for reproducing his results.

Nevertheless, V&E diminish findings that geography accounts for the change in trend:

[L]ack of evidence of trend-change after the TREP blackout is not evidence of an absence of fraud. If fraud was already baked into the 84% of votes reported before the interruption, then C&W’s results suggesting no shift in trend when reporting resumed are incapable of shedding light on the existence of fraud before the blackout.

This is pure burden-shifting. C&W properly address OAS allegations about the shift in trend. But there is no evidence of fraud “baked into the 84%” either. The OAS provides none; V&E provide none. There is no analysis that may be performed to satisfy V&E in this regard; by their own logic, lack of evidence is not evidence of an absence. It is up to V&E or the OAS to provide proof.

Still, if we take V&E seriously here, then we must also account for the fact that evidence is lacking that there was no fraud in favor of the opposition baked into the 84 percent. We may just as easily suggest that Morales’s victory was close only because the opposition committed fraud. Simply making the suggestion does not make it credible. Surely, E&H would not accept this suggestion to be a valid critique of their work. Why is V&E’s argument of C&W any more valid? In any case, the entirety of E&H’s analysis is conditioned on the idea that the 84 percent is clean. Absent that assumption, E&H’s analysis offers nothing.

V&E further call out C&W for comparing late-counted precincts to similarly sized precincts counted early. Yet they merely suggest that this could be a problem “[i]f electoral fraud is easier to engineer in small precincts.” Again, there lies the unstated assumption that such fraud would be in support of Morales. The presumption of guilt persists.

Nevertheless, the OAS levered the suspicion of fraud — suspicion it helped manufacture and promote — into a demonstrably unbalanced audit of the election. The OAS restricted much of the focus of its audit exclusively on MAS-heavy geographic areas with no consideration to the possibility of irregularities occurring elsewhere. Having (inevitably) found irregularities, the OAS pointed to the fact that these areas heavily favored MAS as evidence that the irregularities themselves benefited MAS.

This would be circular logic if the last step held at all. Consider that such a presumption of benefit — even if the OAS had audited more broadly — would actually reward the opposition for spoiling tally sheets where Morales performed best. More importantly, the OAS provides no specific evidence that the legitimate votes cast on the 226 tally sheets it identified as “irregular” should look less favorable to Morales than the official results indicated — let alone to a degree sufficient to invalidate the results. In fact, what we discovered was that the results reported on these 226 tally sheets look almost exactly the same as the non-irregular tally sheets from the same voting centers.

Again, V&E start from a supposition of guilt, stating, “the fact that Morales was even on the ballot at all last October indicated that fraud was afoot.” V&E may not like that the “Constitutional Court caved in” by allowing Morales to run in the 2019 election. It may even suffice to make opponents vigilant in hopes of securing the integrity of the election, but it cannot possibly indicate fraud.

They continue, writing:

In addition, the preponderance of evidence that has since emerged points to rampant electoral fraud. An audit by the Organization of American States (OAS) revealed major irregularities and manipulation, including falsification of poll officials’ signatures, altered tally sheets and databases, and a broken chain of custody. Most damning of all, the transmission of voting data was redirected to two unauthorized hidden servers.

We discuss these concerns in our report, but neither V&E nor the OAS provide any credible evidence that these irregularities in any way favored Morales, let alone were part of a coordinated attempt to manipulate the electoral results. According to the public reports of both private contractors involved in the election, the TSE actually believed at the time that fraud was being committed against Morales.

Even the “broken chain of custody” concerns raised by the OAS included opposition protesters burning electoral materials. The OAS used this to cast doubt on the election results saying this hindered their ability to verify the results. That may be true, but it is the height of chutzpah to accuse electoral authorities of manipulating the election by pointing to opposition destruction of electoral materials. V&E go even further and actually point to this destruction as evidence of fraud.

There is no credible evidence that Morales failed to win by the necessary margin based exclusively on legitimate votes. V&E have no basis for criticizing C&W — who make no claims unsupported by their research. V&E don’t even disagree substantially with the findings of C&W. Rather, V&E must accurately report what others argue and quit pretending that their inability to model the election results justifies their cries of fraud.

Ultimately, the most important thing is whether or not the actions taken by the OAS were justified. By denying the clearest explanation for the change in trend, using that ignorance to conduct a completely biased audit of the election, and then misrepresenting the report’s findings as proof of fraud, the record is clear: the OAS’s actions have been consistently irresponsible.

Since the de facto government of Jeanine Áñez took power in early November 2019, the human rights situation in Bolivia has significantly deteriorated. Various government actions have been strongly criticized by Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR), the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), the Organization of American States (OAS), and over 850 public figures and scholars. Earlier this month, Bolivia’s human rights ombudsman — an independent government official appointed by the legislature — called for an “urgent visit” by UN experts to report on “violations of human rights,” and requested the same from the IACHR.

The following is a summary, not comprehensive, of various human rights violations under Bolivia’s de facto government:

Police Violence — Repression by security forces and paramilitary organizations resulted in 35 dead, 833 injured, and 1,504 arrested by late 2019. The OHCHR reported 600 detentions in a single period lasting less than four weeks. Bolivia’s Torture Prevention Service reported violence and abuse against the newly arrested, but the head of that agency has since resigned, allegedly having been asked to do so. In November, the government passed Decree 4078 to provide legal immunity to security forces involved in abuses (a move met with harsh condemnation by Amnesty International) and only repealed it after multiple police massacres of protestors had taken place. Government officials have repeatedly skipped congressional hearings on the massacres. When the families of the deceased publicly protested, they were met with a police tear gas attack so severe that a nearby school had to be evacuated, with 100 children affected. The government has also stepped up its attempt to militarize social conflict by creating new “anti-terror” security forces, enlisting the military to participate in domestic law enforcement, and introducing new measures to make military and police spending confidential.

Paramilitary Violence — Extralegal violence has been widespread: officials in the MAS party and their supporters have had their houses burnt down, their family members kidnapped, and have been repeatedly beaten in public. Not only has law enforcement failed to open investigations into most of these attacks, but IACHR reports indicate that violent militias have “acted in association with state law enforcement” or have been “tolerated” by them. The police have failed to address this, leading Bolivia’s human rights ombudsman to raise concerns about the issue.

Assault on MAS and Former Government Officials — As the de facto president goes back on her earlier commitment not to run in the upcoming elections, she is engaging in far-reaching persecution of her main electoral opponents. Former MAS officials have been prosecuted on dubious charges including “terrorism” and “sedition,” and many have fled or gone into hiding; 65 local officials resigned due to a “pattern of pressure and intimidation”; 592 former officials have been targeted in an “anti-corruption probe” (to be released before the next election); and election agencies have considered legally revoking MAS’s status as a legitimate political party. Less than 24 hours after it was clear that Luis Arce would be the MAS presidential candidate, the de facto attorney general announced that he was launching a corruption investigation targeting Arce (a local body announced a criminal complaint against David Choquehuanca, the MAS vice presidential candidate, just days before). Former president Evo Morales has been charged with terrorism, forced to flee the country, been legally barred from running as a senate candidate in the upcoming election, and had his lawyer arrested in an act that was condemned by the human rights ombudsman.

Freedom of the Press — Bolivia’s de facto communications minister has threatened journalists whom she has accused of “sedition,” claiming within weeks of taking office that she already had a list of journalists in mind (sedition charges are now widely abused: Bolivia’s human rights ombudsman has noted that while there have been 22 charges of sedition in the last four months, last year saw only two). Journalists and presidents of private news organizations have been arrested, and 53 community radio stations have shut down. At least 50 journalists were assaulted in late 2019 (including the deliberate teargassing of a TV reporter on camera), and certain news channels have been censored. One Argentine journalist was beaten to death in unknown circumstances.

Freedom of SpeechStudents and state employees have been arrested for social network posts critical of the government, a move which even some opponents of Evo Morales’s MAS party have labeled “totalitarian.” Some activists have alleged that the de facto government has been removing communications antennas in rural areas in order to hamper cell service where opposition to the government is strongest.

Racism — Threats and harassment have been particularly focused on indigenous communities and the secular nature of the Bolivian state. Upon taking power, Áñez stated that “God has allowed the Bible to re-enter the Palace.” She has made multiple racist Tweets about indigenous Bolivians, including calling them “satanic.” In December, the OAS passed a resolution condemning “the human rights violations and the use of violence against any citizen of Bolivia, especially any and all forms of violence and intimidation against Bolivians of indigenous origin.” This did not prevent Áñez from later speaking of preventing “the savages” from returning to power.

Rule of Law — The de facto government has drastically exceeded its stated mandate as a “caretaker” government overseeing the implementation of new elections by making substantive changes to Bolivian foreign policy, agriculture, criminal justice, and more. The government has also ignored Article 158 of the Bolivian Constitution by maintaining a defense minister in place even after he had been censured by the Legislative Assembly.

International Relations — United States Rep. Hank Johnson and 13 other members of congress signed a letter to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in November 2019, raising concerns about “an escalating political and human rights crisis.” When the IACHR attempted to create a mechanism to address human rights violations, the Bolivian government vetoed the appointment of two of its members in a move condemned by 40 human rights groups and US House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Eliot Engel. Three Spanish and Mexican diplomats were expelled following a diplomatic crisis during which Spain accused the Bolivian government of harassing its diplomats and violating the Vienna Convention. When the Mexican air force sent a plane to provide Morales with asylum, Bolivian authorities and their regional allies repeatedly attempted to block them in a “tense” standoff where “a serious situation could easily have unfolded,” according to Mexico’s foreign minister.

With the growing weight of evidence to suggest that the Áñez government has committed widespread human rights violations, major news outlets in the US are only now beginning to publicly question the role that the US government has played in supporting the de facto government.

Since the de facto government of Jeanine Áñez took power in early November 2019, the human rights situation in Bolivia has significantly deteriorated. Various government actions have been strongly criticized by Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR), the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), the Organization of American States (OAS), and over 850 public figures and scholars. Earlier this month, Bolivia’s human rights ombudsman — an independent government official appointed by the legislature — called for an “urgent visit” by UN experts to report on “violations of human rights,” and requested the same from the IACHR.

The following is a summary, not comprehensive, of various human rights violations under Bolivia’s de facto government:

Police Violence — Repression by security forces and paramilitary organizations resulted in 35 dead, 833 injured, and 1,504 arrested by late 2019. The OHCHR reported 600 detentions in a single period lasting less than four weeks. Bolivia’s Torture Prevention Service reported violence and abuse against the newly arrested, but the head of that agency has since resigned, allegedly having been asked to do so. In November, the government passed Decree 4078 to provide legal immunity to security forces involved in abuses (a move met with harsh condemnation by Amnesty International) and only repealed it after multiple police massacres of protestors had taken place. Government officials have repeatedly skipped congressional hearings on the massacres. When the families of the deceased publicly protested, they were met with a police tear gas attack so severe that a nearby school had to be evacuated, with 100 children affected. The government has also stepped up its attempt to militarize social conflict by creating new “anti-terror” security forces, enlisting the military to participate in domestic law enforcement, and introducing new measures to make military and police spending confidential.

Paramilitary Violence — Extralegal violence has been widespread: officials in the MAS party and their supporters have had their houses burnt down, their family members kidnapped, and have been repeatedly beaten in public. Not only has law enforcement failed to open investigations into most of these attacks, but IACHR reports indicate that violent militias have “acted in association with state law enforcement” or have been “tolerated” by them. The police have failed to address this, leading Bolivia’s human rights ombudsman to raise concerns about the issue.

Assault on MAS and Former Government Officials — As the de facto president goes back on her earlier commitment not to run in the upcoming elections, she is engaging in far-reaching persecution of her main electoral opponents. Former MAS officials have been prosecuted on dubious charges including “terrorism” and “sedition,” and many have fled or gone into hiding; 65 local officials resigned due to a “pattern of pressure and intimidation”; 592 former officials have been targeted in an “anti-corruption probe” (to be released before the next election); and election agencies have considered legally revoking MAS’s status as a legitimate political party. Less than 24 hours after it was clear that Luis Arce would be the MAS presidential candidate, the de facto attorney general announced that he was launching a corruption investigation targeting Arce (a local body announced a criminal complaint against David Choquehuanca, the MAS vice presidential candidate, just days before). Former president Evo Morales has been charged with terrorism, forced to flee the country, been legally barred from running as a senate candidate in the upcoming election, and had his lawyer arrested in an act that was condemned by the human rights ombudsman.

Freedom of the Press — Bolivia’s de facto communications minister has threatened journalists whom she has accused of “sedition,” claiming within weeks of taking office that she already had a list of journalists in mind (sedition charges are now widely abused: Bolivia’s human rights ombudsman has noted that while there have been 22 charges of sedition in the last four months, last year saw only two). Journalists and presidents of private news organizations have been arrested, and 53 community radio stations have shut down. At least 50 journalists were assaulted in late 2019 (including the deliberate teargassing of a TV reporter on camera), and certain news channels have been censored. One Argentine journalist was beaten to death in unknown circumstances.

Freedom of SpeechStudents and state employees have been arrested for social network posts critical of the government, a move which even some opponents of Evo Morales’s MAS party have labeled “totalitarian.” Some activists have alleged that the de facto government has been removing communications antennas in rural areas in order to hamper cell service where opposition to the government is strongest.

Racism — Threats and harassment have been particularly focused on indigenous communities and the secular nature of the Bolivian state. Upon taking power, Áñez stated that “God has allowed the Bible to re-enter the Palace.” She has made multiple racist Tweets about indigenous Bolivians, including calling them “satanic.” In December, the OAS passed a resolution condemning “the human rights violations and the use of violence against any citizen of Bolivia, especially any and all forms of violence and intimidation against Bolivians of indigenous origin.” This did not prevent Áñez from later speaking of preventing “the savages” from returning to power.

Rule of Law — The de facto government has drastically exceeded its stated mandate as a “caretaker” government overseeing the implementation of new elections by making substantive changes to Bolivian foreign policy, agriculture, criminal justice, and more. The government has also ignored Article 158 of the Bolivian Constitution by maintaining a defense minister in place even after he had been censured by the Legislative Assembly.

International Relations — United States Rep. Hank Johnson and 13 other members of congress signed a letter to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in November 2019, raising concerns about “an escalating political and human rights crisis.” When the IACHR attempted to create a mechanism to address human rights violations, the Bolivian government vetoed the appointment of two of its members in a move condemned by 40 human rights groups and US House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Eliot Engel. Three Spanish and Mexican diplomats were expelled following a diplomatic crisis during which Spain accused the Bolivian government of harassing its diplomats and violating the Vienna Convention. When the Mexican air force sent a plane to provide Morales with asylum, Bolivian authorities and their regional allies repeatedly attempted to block them in a “tense” standoff where “a serious situation could easily have unfolded,” according to Mexico’s foreign minister.

With the growing weight of evidence to suggest that the Áñez government has committed widespread human rights violations, major news outlets in the US are only now beginning to publicly question the role that the US government has played in supporting the de facto government.

Last week, after Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders’ victory in the Nevada caucus, long time human rights activist Brian Concannon wrote:

The Democratic candidates missed the opportunity last week in Nevada—a state with a 30 percent Latino population—to address the root causes of our immigration crisis. They predictably criticized the worst Trump administration immigration policies, such as families separated at the border and chronic uncertainty for undocumented people in the U.S., many of whom arrived decades ago as children. How we treat people at or inside our border certainly deserves attention, but we cannot ignore that many people come to the United States in the first place because our foreign policies—by both Democrats and Republicans—force them to leave their homes in Latin America and elsewhere.

Concannon is, of course, correct. And how can a politician be honest about addressing migration if they can’t be honest about their country’s role in stoking the migration in the first place? Still, Concannon writes what few politicians are willing to say out loud: that US foreign policy is part of the problem and is not a partisan issue.
 
This was on full display at the last Democratic primary debate, held in South Carolina. The six candidates not named Bernie Sanders all took aim at the front runner of the Democratic primary campaign. Former Vice President Joe Biden, former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, and former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg all laid into Sanders for his acknowledgment that Fidel Castro implemented literacy programs in Cuba after the revolution that toppled the US-backed Batista dictatorship in 1959.
 
Putting aside the fact that these candidates opted to perpetuate right wing red-baiting tactics used against progressives (and even moderate Democrats!) for decades, and that Sanders’ comments echoed those previously made by President Obama, the attack revealed something deeper about the candidates on the debate stage.
 
Pundits often credit Sanders’ appeal with his consistent track record of advocating for progressive policies. Most voters, poll after poll shows, consider Sanders to be an honest politician, even if they don’t agree with all of his policies. But honesty isn’t just a campaign attribute, it is a necessity in accurately diagnosing problems and coming up with solutions. And nowhere is that clearer than with the issue of immigration.
 
“Excuse me,” Sanders said amid the debate-stage attacks, “occasionally it might be a good idea to be honest about American foreign policy.” That includes, he continued, “the fact that America has overthrown governments all over the world in Chile, in Guatemala, in Iran.” The list goes on.
 
Mayor Buttigieg responded by saying these coups of the distant past were irrelevant. “This is not about what coups were happening in the 1970s or ’80s,” he said. “This is about the future. This is about 2020.”
 
Here’s a really crazy idea: maybe being honest about what happened in the 70s and 80s will help you understand the future. Sanders could have – and should have – noted that US support for violent coups is not constrained to ancient history. As Concannon writes:

The U.S. displaces its neighbors by displacing their governments. The Obama administration supported the 2009 coup d’état against Honduras’ elected President Manuel Zelaya by U.S.-trained generals. The Obama and then the Trump administrations supported repressive and corrupt governments that followed Zelaya’s ouster, giving a green light to assassinations of dissidents and journalists, government-linked drug trafficking, and spiraling crime. This repression continues to drive tens of thousands to seek asylum in the U.S. each year, regardless of the legal obstacles we erect. More recently, the Trump administration supported last November’s military coup d’état in Bolivia—with little opposition from Democrats—deepening that country’s political crisis.

While others on the debate stage pandered to South Florida, Sanders did what he has done throughout his career: he made an honest statement that most politicians are too scared to say in public. That honesty is one of the many reasons Sanders is leading the field in the Democratic primary. But that honesty will also be a precondition for any leader serious about addressing the roots causes of migration. And it might help explain why, in Nevada at least, Sanders received more than 50 percent of the Latino vote.   

Last week, after Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders’ victory in the Nevada caucus, long time human rights activist Brian Concannon wrote:

The Democratic candidates missed the opportunity last week in Nevada—a state with a 30 percent Latino population—to address the root causes of our immigration crisis. They predictably criticized the worst Trump administration immigration policies, such as families separated at the border and chronic uncertainty for undocumented people in the U.S., many of whom arrived decades ago as children. How we treat people at or inside our border certainly deserves attention, but we cannot ignore that many people come to the United States in the first place because our foreign policies—by both Democrats and Republicans—force them to leave their homes in Latin America and elsewhere.

Concannon is, of course, correct. And how can a politician be honest about addressing migration if they can’t be honest about their country’s role in stoking the migration in the first place? Still, Concannon writes what few politicians are willing to say out loud: that US foreign policy is part of the problem and is not a partisan issue.
 
This was on full display at the last Democratic primary debate, held in South Carolina. The six candidates not named Bernie Sanders all took aim at the front runner of the Democratic primary campaign. Former Vice President Joe Biden, former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, and former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg all laid into Sanders for his acknowledgment that Fidel Castro implemented literacy programs in Cuba after the revolution that toppled the US-backed Batista dictatorship in 1959.
 
Putting aside the fact that these candidates opted to perpetuate right wing red-baiting tactics used against progressives (and even moderate Democrats!) for decades, and that Sanders’ comments echoed those previously made by President Obama, the attack revealed something deeper about the candidates on the debate stage.
 
Pundits often credit Sanders’ appeal with his consistent track record of advocating for progressive policies. Most voters, poll after poll shows, consider Sanders to be an honest politician, even if they don’t agree with all of his policies. But honesty isn’t just a campaign attribute, it is a necessity in accurately diagnosing problems and coming up with solutions. And nowhere is that clearer than with the issue of immigration.
 
“Excuse me,” Sanders said amid the debate-stage attacks, “occasionally it might be a good idea to be honest about American foreign policy.” That includes, he continued, “the fact that America has overthrown governments all over the world in Chile, in Guatemala, in Iran.” The list goes on.
 
Mayor Buttigieg responded by saying these coups of the distant past were irrelevant. “This is not about what coups were happening in the 1970s or ’80s,” he said. “This is about the future. This is about 2020.”
 
Here’s a really crazy idea: maybe being honest about what happened in the 70s and 80s will help you understand the future. Sanders could have – and should have – noted that US support for violent coups is not constrained to ancient history. As Concannon writes:

The U.S. displaces its neighbors by displacing their governments. The Obama administration supported the 2009 coup d’état against Honduras’ elected President Manuel Zelaya by U.S.-trained generals. The Obama and then the Trump administrations supported repressive and corrupt governments that followed Zelaya’s ouster, giving a green light to assassinations of dissidents and journalists, government-linked drug trafficking, and spiraling crime. This repression continues to drive tens of thousands to seek asylum in the U.S. each year, regardless of the legal obstacles we erect. More recently, the Trump administration supported last November’s military coup d’état in Bolivia—with little opposition from Democrats—deepening that country’s political crisis.

While others on the debate stage pandered to South Florida, Sanders did what he has done throughout his career: he made an honest statement that most politicians are too scared to say in public. That honesty is one of the many reasons Sanders is leading the field in the Democratic primary. But that honesty will also be a precondition for any leader serious about addressing the roots causes of migration. And it might help explain why, in Nevada at least, Sanders received more than 50 percent of the Latino vote.   

En français

Juan Guaidó’s high-profile trip to Washington earlier this month seems to be paying off. After receiving a bipartisan standing ovation during Trump’s State of the Union address, attending a joint press conference with Nancy Pelosi, and meeting privately with Vice President Pence in the Oval Office, the Trump administration has just earmarked millions in additional funding to support regime change efforts in Venezuela.

According to the State Department’s recently released Congressional Budget Justification for the 2021 Fiscal Year, spending dedicated to regime change in Venezuela has received a significant boost.

The Trump administration requested $200 million in the FY 2021 Economic Support and Development Fund (ESDF), “to address the crisis in Venezuela,” which includes flexible programming “to support a democratic transition and related needs in Venezuela.” This represents a twenty-two-fold increase from the administration’s FY 2020 request, and about 26 percent of the ESDF’s total funding request for the entire Western Hemisphere.

Oftentimes this funding’s ultimate destination can change, and given the political situation, ends up being spent outside of Venezuelan territory. Last year, Trump diverted more than $40 million of Central American aid directly to the Venezuelan opposition led by Juan Guaidó, paying for, among other things, salaries, airfare, and technical training for Guaidó’s staff — many of whom reside in Washington, DC.

Other line items in the budget include the US Agency for Global Media (USAGM), which requested a $637 million budget to “inform, engage, and connect people around the world in support of freedom and democracy” while prioritizing “regions of strategic importance to United States national security” and “providing comprehensive coverage of Venezuela’s on-going leadership conflict.” This figure is conservative, as the previous two budgets significantly overshot similar requests, spending more than $810 million last year alone. It is unclear, however, how much of this budget will fund USAGM’s various Venezuela-related media campaigns.

Another new development in this year’s budget is the transfer of $25 million from the Diplomatic Progress Fund to “International Narcotics Control and Law Enforcement,” citing the “political transition in Venezuela” as one of the policy priorities of the funding. While vague on how the money will be used, it appears consistent with the politically charged rhetoric of “narcoterrorism,” which the Trump administration and their allies in the region have levied against some of the governments that they have sought to overthrow.

While some of the funding in this year’s budget is earmarked for humanitarian assistance to Venezuela, including $5 million to USAID’s Venezuelan Global Health Program, it’s merely a drop in the bucket compared to the devastating impact that US sanctions have had on the country since they were greatly expanded in 2017.

Sanctions on financial transactions with Venezuelan companies and economic sanctions against Venezuela’s national oil company have cost the country billions of dollars it needs to maintain vital health, water, and food security infrastructure, while also preventing imports of life-saving medicine and food. The result has been the death of tens of thousands of Venezuelans, and millions of economically driven refugees. These sanctions are also illegal under treaties that the US has signed, as well as under international law.

Despite Juan Guaidó’s international tour and Trump’s empty promises of support for “the Venezuelan people,” a peaceful, diplomatic resolution to the political crisis does not appear any closer. Trump’s new budget, instead of focusing on diplomatic solutions, facilitating depoliticized humanitarian aid, and assisting the recovery of the Venezuelan economy, doubles down on a failed regime change strategy that has only hurt millions of Venezuelans, and costs Americans hundreds of millions in tax dollars.

En français

Juan Guaidó’s high-profile trip to Washington earlier this month seems to be paying off. After receiving a bipartisan standing ovation during Trump’s State of the Union address, attending a joint press conference with Nancy Pelosi, and meeting privately with Vice President Pence in the Oval Office, the Trump administration has just earmarked millions in additional funding to support regime change efforts in Venezuela.

According to the State Department’s recently released Congressional Budget Justification for the 2021 Fiscal Year, spending dedicated to regime change in Venezuela has received a significant boost.

The Trump administration requested $200 million in the FY 2021 Economic Support and Development Fund (ESDF), “to address the crisis in Venezuela,” which includes flexible programming “to support a democratic transition and related needs in Venezuela.” This represents a twenty-two-fold increase from the administration’s FY 2020 request, and about 26 percent of the ESDF’s total funding request for the entire Western Hemisphere.

Oftentimes this funding’s ultimate destination can change, and given the political situation, ends up being spent outside of Venezuelan territory. Last year, Trump diverted more than $40 million of Central American aid directly to the Venezuelan opposition led by Juan Guaidó, paying for, among other things, salaries, airfare, and technical training for Guaidó’s staff — many of whom reside in Washington, DC.

Other line items in the budget include the US Agency for Global Media (USAGM), which requested a $637 million budget to “inform, engage, and connect people around the world in support of freedom and democracy” while prioritizing “regions of strategic importance to United States national security” and “providing comprehensive coverage of Venezuela’s on-going leadership conflict.” This figure is conservative, as the previous two budgets significantly overshot similar requests, spending more than $810 million last year alone. It is unclear, however, how much of this budget will fund USAGM’s various Venezuela-related media campaigns.

Another new development in this year’s budget is the transfer of $25 million from the Diplomatic Progress Fund to “International Narcotics Control and Law Enforcement,” citing the “political transition in Venezuela” as one of the policy priorities of the funding. While vague on how the money will be used, it appears consistent with the politically charged rhetoric of “narcoterrorism,” which the Trump administration and their allies in the region have levied against some of the governments that they have sought to overthrow.

While some of the funding in this year’s budget is earmarked for humanitarian assistance to Venezuela, including $5 million to USAID’s Venezuelan Global Health Program, it’s merely a drop in the bucket compared to the devastating impact that US sanctions have had on the country since they were greatly expanded in 2017.

Sanctions on financial transactions with Venezuelan companies and economic sanctions against Venezuela’s national oil company have cost the country billions of dollars it needs to maintain vital health, water, and food security infrastructure, while also preventing imports of life-saving medicine and food. The result has been the death of tens of thousands of Venezuelans, and millions of economically driven refugees. These sanctions are also illegal under treaties that the US has signed, as well as under international law.

Despite Juan Guaidó’s international tour and Trump’s empty promises of support for “the Venezuelan people,” a peaceful, diplomatic resolution to the political crisis does not appear any closer. Trump’s new budget, instead of focusing on diplomatic solutions, facilitating depoliticized humanitarian aid, and assisting the recovery of the Venezuelan economy, doubles down on a failed regime change strategy that has only hurt millions of Venezuelans, and costs Americans hundreds of millions in tax dollars.

El Salvador has one of the highest homicide rates in the world. Bordering the country are the other two nations in Central America’s “Northern Triangle” region: Honduras, with the world’s fifth-highest homicide rate in 2017, and Guatemala, in sixteenth place. North of Guatemala is Mexico, where a homicide rate quintupling that of the United States puts it in nineteenth. But the United States isn’t just a bystander to this tragic violence; the majority of these homicides are firearm-related, and 70 percent of guns seized from criminals in Mexico traced by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) come from the US. Almost 41 percent of guns seized in the Northern Triangle originate in the US, including almost half the guns in El Salvador.

The astonishing violence in Central America is a major root cause of forced migration to the US from the region. US guns play a clear role in fueling the crisis. A few of these weapons originated from US military shipments to militaries and paramilitaries in the region during the Cold War. Most modern traffic to cartels and gangs occurs through the black market, with US residents legally purchasing firearms here and then illegally transporting them south. Harry Penate — at the time the only ATF official responsible for US arms tracing in all of Central America — gave one example of a gun bought at a licensed gun store in Baltimore being recovered from criminals in El Salvador less than a week later.

But not all US guns come through the black market. US gun manufacturers regularly export guns to foreign buyers legally through a weak and underenforced regulatory system, often allowing guns to wind up in the hands of organized crime. The Trump administration has recently published regulations that will make the system even weaker. This will not only put profits before lives in Central America, but is likely to worsen the drivers of the very migrant flows Trump viciously opposes.

The current system of arms exports was established by the Arms Export Control Act of 1976 and oversaw $45.4 billion in sales from 2013 to 2017. US gun sellers must register with the State Department and provide detailed information about their sales, including the ultimate recipients (“end users”) of the weapons. The State Department must approve any further transfer of the weapons to new end users, and US Embassies are responsible for ensuring the guns wind up in the correct hands. The State Department notifies Congress of any sales over a million dollars, and Congress has the ability to block deals through an informal process. In recent years, Congress has blocked large weapons sales to state security forces in the Philippines and Turkey over human rights concerns.

Though this system is tough in theory, insufficient enforcement has proven it to be weak in practice. When the State Department’s inspector general audited the process last year, examining 21 approved applications for arms sales, 95 percent were missing required information, including 62 percent that lacked sufficient end-use information.

In spite of this, the gun industry has long pushed for a further loosening of the system. Even the Obama administration (which itself sold twice as many arms to foreign governments as the Bush administration) bragged that they made steps toward deregulating private arms exports, but then abandoned plans for a full overhaul in the wake of the Sandy Hook mass shooting. The pressure to weaken the system likely grew under President Trump, as domestic gun sales have dropped significantly during his tenure due to collectors’ and enthusiasts’ reduced expectations of gun control laws. Thus, the Trump administration has decided to make up for gun companies’ losses at home through greater exports, issuing a rule in late January similar to the Obama administration’s original proposal to overhaul the current system for the worse.

Under the new rule, the regulatory system will be transferred from the State Department to Commerce with the aim of “reducing the procedural burdens and costs of export compliance on the U.S. firearms industry…” Under this system, US arms sellers will face far less scrutiny during the licensing process for most weapons, especially since the Commerce Department does not have access to the State Department lists of which arms dealers have been involved in suspicious or criminal transactions before. Worse, the number of countries with license exceptions for arms exports will expand from three close allies to 37 nations. Congress’s ability to review and block certain arms sales will also be eliminated.

Arms exports recipients will no longer be required to issue written certification that they won’t give the weapons to someone else without authorization, and the system for end-user verification will be gutted: rather than embassy staff, this will be export control officers’ (ECOs) responsibility. Despite that over 40 percent of all checks by the State Department are in the Western Hemisphere, there is not a single ECO responsible for verifying arms sales recipients in this half of the world, and there don’t appear to be any plans to hire any.

In other words, the new rules make it substantially easier to export arms abroad, and in Latin American countries where US guns already contribute to some of the highest murder rates in the world, there appear to be no US government staffers responsible for verifying weapons wind up in the right hands.

The consequences could be enormous. It would still be concerning if all private weapons sales went to state security forces in the region, seeing as such sales have already enabled human rights abuses: US gun companies have sold weapons to Mexico and Honduras that went on to be used in police massacres of civilians. But these new rules won’t just facilitate weapons sales to violent governments; they will make it much easier for cartels and gangs to get their hands on US guns as well.

Though weapons are sometimes stolen, the most common way that criminal organizations acquire legally exported weapons is more straightforward: they buy them from corrupt military or police officials. Salvadoran soldiers have been caught selling rocket launchers to the Milenio Cartel, and in a separate incident trying to sell off over 1,800 hand grenades. An illegal weapons cache en route to Colombia that was seized in Honduras in 2004 included rifles, grenade launchers, and anti-tank rocket launchers “as fresh as if they just left the factory, all US-made,” according to Honduras’ minister of security. The Honduran attorney general’s office estimates that 20 percent of the arms it seized from the Valle Valle criminal organization in 2014 were purchased from the military’s armory. From 2006 to 2017, more than 20,000 weapons belonging to the Mexican police were stolen or went missing. In Guerrero, the Mexican state estimated to have the second-highest number of “organized-crime-style homicides” in 2018, almost a fifth of the weapons acquired by state police from 2010 to 2016 vanished.

Some experts have alleged that Mexican state security forces intentionally fail to keep an accurate weapons inventory so that corrupt soldiers and officials can sell them off. In Honduras, the ATF has noted that Honduran law “is silent on pertinent inventory control provisions for the public security forces.” A former Honduran military official commented that stealing military ammunition at training sessions or shooting ranges for resale is easy: “You sign out with 10,000 rounds and use 5,000. Who is going to know what you do with the other 5,000?” Under a new regulatory regime in which end-use verification is even less viable, the amount of US arms and munitions going to organized crime could rise dramatically.

By making it easier for the gun industry to export arms, the US government is expanding access to those arms for both violent state security forces and criminal organizations in Mexico and Central America. In doing so, it will worsen violence in the region and contribute to the deteriorating humanitarian situation driving forced migration to the United States — the same refugee and migrant flows that Donald Trump has positioned his entire presidency around stopping. Alejandra Martínez, an activist in her early twenties who was shot at by police using American M4 rifles during a 2017 protest in Honduras, told the Miami Herald at the time: “We know that the guns come from the United States. These guns have no business in Honduras. They should stay in the United States. They are sending them to Honduras to kill us.” The next year, she joined a migrant caravan heading north toward the United States, saying, “If I return to Honduras they’ll kill me.”

The consequences of the new policy don’t seem to matter to the Trump administration (which did not consult arms trade experts about it), nor to American gun makers. The firearms industry lobby, which has estimated that the new system could increase their foreign gun sales by up to 20 percent, bragged that the Trump administration began moving on the rules the same day they flew in to Washington to meet with more than 70 members of Congress. When the new rules were posted, the group’s senior VP for government relations and public affairs said, “This is a tremendous achievement for the firearms and ammunition industry. We salute the Trump administration…” Likewise, the NRA complained that the old system involved “national and international security considerations trumping all other factors,” while the new one would give “American businesses who manufacture consumer products a larger footprint in international markets,” supposedly without harming national security. The US government seems to tacitly acknowledge the violence it is enabling abroad, however. It is notable that all of the weapons that the Trump administration is making easier to export will still remain on strict import control lists, meaning that the US considers the weapons dangerous when they’re coming here, but not when they’re going elsewhere.

The Trump administration’s new rules on arms exports are aimed at enriching the firearms industry at the expense of human lives around the world, especially in Mexico and Central America, where the likely absence of enforcement will put more weapons into the hands of both state security forces and criminal organizations known for massacring civilians. Congress should pass Rep. Norma Torres’ proposed Prevent Crime and Terrorism Act of 2019 to reverse the new deregulatory scheme before it takes effect on March 9, and indeed should take steps to strengthen the existing arms export control system to ensure that US guns don’t further destabilize what is already one of the most violent regions on Earth.

El Salvador has one of the highest homicide rates in the world. Bordering the country are the other two nations in Central America’s “Northern Triangle” region: Honduras, with the world’s fifth-highest homicide rate in 2017, and Guatemala, in sixteenth place. North of Guatemala is Mexico, where a homicide rate quintupling that of the United States puts it in nineteenth. But the United States isn’t just a bystander to this tragic violence; the majority of these homicides are firearm-related, and 70 percent of guns seized from criminals in Mexico traced by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) come from the US. Almost 41 percent of guns seized in the Northern Triangle originate in the US, including almost half the guns in El Salvador.

The astonishing violence in Central America is a major root cause of forced migration to the US from the region. US guns play a clear role in fueling the crisis. A few of these weapons originated from US military shipments to militaries and paramilitaries in the region during the Cold War. Most modern traffic to cartels and gangs occurs through the black market, with US residents legally purchasing firearms here and then illegally transporting them south. Harry Penate — at the time the only ATF official responsible for US arms tracing in all of Central America — gave one example of a gun bought at a licensed gun store in Baltimore being recovered from criminals in El Salvador less than a week later.

But not all US guns come through the black market. US gun manufacturers regularly export guns to foreign buyers legally through a weak and underenforced regulatory system, often allowing guns to wind up in the hands of organized crime. The Trump administration has recently published regulations that will make the system even weaker. This will not only put profits before lives in Central America, but is likely to worsen the drivers of the very migrant flows Trump viciously opposes.

The current system of arms exports was established by the Arms Export Control Act of 1976 and oversaw $45.4 billion in sales from 2013 to 2017. US gun sellers must register with the State Department and provide detailed information about their sales, including the ultimate recipients (“end users”) of the weapons. The State Department must approve any further transfer of the weapons to new end users, and US Embassies are responsible for ensuring the guns wind up in the correct hands. The State Department notifies Congress of any sales over a million dollars, and Congress has the ability to block deals through an informal process. In recent years, Congress has blocked large weapons sales to state security forces in the Philippines and Turkey over human rights concerns.

Though this system is tough in theory, insufficient enforcement has proven it to be weak in practice. When the State Department’s inspector general audited the process last year, examining 21 approved applications for arms sales, 95 percent were missing required information, including 62 percent that lacked sufficient end-use information.

In spite of this, the gun industry has long pushed for a further loosening of the system. Even the Obama administration (which itself sold twice as many arms to foreign governments as the Bush administration) bragged that they made steps toward deregulating private arms exports, but then abandoned plans for a full overhaul in the wake of the Sandy Hook mass shooting. The pressure to weaken the system likely grew under President Trump, as domestic gun sales have dropped significantly during his tenure due to collectors’ and enthusiasts’ reduced expectations of gun control laws. Thus, the Trump administration has decided to make up for gun companies’ losses at home through greater exports, issuing a rule in late January similar to the Obama administration’s original proposal to overhaul the current system for the worse.

Under the new rule, the regulatory system will be transferred from the State Department to Commerce with the aim of “reducing the procedural burdens and costs of export compliance on the U.S. firearms industry…” Under this system, US arms sellers will face far less scrutiny during the licensing process for most weapons, especially since the Commerce Department does not have access to the State Department lists of which arms dealers have been involved in suspicious or criminal transactions before. Worse, the number of countries with license exceptions for arms exports will expand from three close allies to 37 nations. Congress’s ability to review and block certain arms sales will also be eliminated.

Arms exports recipients will no longer be required to issue written certification that they won’t give the weapons to someone else without authorization, and the system for end-user verification will be gutted: rather than embassy staff, this will be export control officers’ (ECOs) responsibility. Despite that over 40 percent of all checks by the State Department are in the Western Hemisphere, there is not a single ECO responsible for verifying arms sales recipients in this half of the world, and there don’t appear to be any plans to hire any.

In other words, the new rules make it substantially easier to export arms abroad, and in Latin American countries where US guns already contribute to some of the highest murder rates in the world, there appear to be no US government staffers responsible for verifying weapons wind up in the right hands.

The consequences could be enormous. It would still be concerning if all private weapons sales went to state security forces in the region, seeing as such sales have already enabled human rights abuses: US gun companies have sold weapons to Mexico and Honduras that went on to be used in police massacres of civilians. But these new rules won’t just facilitate weapons sales to violent governments; they will make it much easier for cartels and gangs to get their hands on US guns as well.

Though weapons are sometimes stolen, the most common way that criminal organizations acquire legally exported weapons is more straightforward: they buy them from corrupt military or police officials. Salvadoran soldiers have been caught selling rocket launchers to the Milenio Cartel, and in a separate incident trying to sell off over 1,800 hand grenades. An illegal weapons cache en route to Colombia that was seized in Honduras in 2004 included rifles, grenade launchers, and anti-tank rocket launchers “as fresh as if they just left the factory, all US-made,” according to Honduras’ minister of security. The Honduran attorney general’s office estimates that 20 percent of the arms it seized from the Valle Valle criminal organization in 2014 were purchased from the military’s armory. From 2006 to 2017, more than 20,000 weapons belonging to the Mexican police were stolen or went missing. In Guerrero, the Mexican state estimated to have the second-highest number of “organized-crime-style homicides” in 2018, almost a fifth of the weapons acquired by state police from 2010 to 2016 vanished.

Some experts have alleged that Mexican state security forces intentionally fail to keep an accurate weapons inventory so that corrupt soldiers and officials can sell them off. In Honduras, the ATF has noted that Honduran law “is silent on pertinent inventory control provisions for the public security forces.” A former Honduran military official commented that stealing military ammunition at training sessions or shooting ranges for resale is easy: “You sign out with 10,000 rounds and use 5,000. Who is going to know what you do with the other 5,000?” Under a new regulatory regime in which end-use verification is even less viable, the amount of US arms and munitions going to organized crime could rise dramatically.

By making it easier for the gun industry to export arms, the US government is expanding access to those arms for both violent state security forces and criminal organizations in Mexico and Central America. In doing so, it will worsen violence in the region and contribute to the deteriorating humanitarian situation driving forced migration to the United States — the same refugee and migrant flows that Donald Trump has positioned his entire presidency around stopping. Alejandra Martínez, an activist in her early twenties who was shot at by police using American M4 rifles during a 2017 protest in Honduras, told the Miami Herald at the time: “We know that the guns come from the United States. These guns have no business in Honduras. They should stay in the United States. They are sending them to Honduras to kill us.” The next year, she joined a migrant caravan heading north toward the United States, saying, “If I return to Honduras they’ll kill me.”

The consequences of the new policy don’t seem to matter to the Trump administration (which did not consult arms trade experts about it), nor to American gun makers. The firearms industry lobby, which has estimated that the new system could increase their foreign gun sales by up to 20 percent, bragged that the Trump administration began moving on the rules the same day they flew in to Washington to meet with more than 70 members of Congress. When the new rules were posted, the group’s senior VP for government relations and public affairs said, “This is a tremendous achievement for the firearms and ammunition industry. We salute the Trump administration…” Likewise, the NRA complained that the old system involved “national and international security considerations trumping all other factors,” while the new one would give “American businesses who manufacture consumer products a larger footprint in international markets,” supposedly without harming national security. The US government seems to tacitly acknowledge the violence it is enabling abroad, however. It is notable that all of the weapons that the Trump administration is making easier to export will still remain on strict import control lists, meaning that the US considers the weapons dangerous when they’re coming here, but not when they’re going elsewhere.

The Trump administration’s new rules on arms exports are aimed at enriching the firearms industry at the expense of human lives around the world, especially in Mexico and Central America, where the likely absence of enforcement will put more weapons into the hands of both state security forces and criminal organizations known for massacring civilians. Congress should pass Rep. Norma Torres’ proposed Prevent Crime and Terrorism Act of 2019 to reverse the new deregulatory scheme before it takes effect on March 9, and indeed should take steps to strengthen the existing arms export control system to ensure that US guns don’t further destabilize what is already one of the most violent regions on Earth.

Originally posted on Jacobin.

Last October, Bolivia held a presidential election that pitted incumbent Evo Morales against former president Carlos Mesa. Morales, a socialist that had been in power since 2006, was popular and successful, although his reelection bid was marred by a contentious decision to scrap presidential term limits. Many in the opposition had promised they wouldn’t recognize the results if Morales won.

On election day, as tallies trickled in and the election commission reported results from the unofficial “quick count,” Mesa preemptively declared victory, claiming that he had forced a second round of voting. (Presidential candidates in Bolivia must capture 50 percent of the vote, or must receive at least 40 percent of the vote and lead the second-place candidate by at least ten percentage points, in order to win outright.) Controversially, the election commission then stopped reporting voting tallies for the night. The outcome was up in the air.

Sound familiar?

Along with the suspension of results, both the Democratic presidential caucuses in Iowa and the presidential election in Bolivia faced geographic challenges (there were more than 1,600 precincts in Iowa and 5,300 in Bolivia, many of them rural) as well as technological hurdles (using smartphone apps to record results requires technical familiarity and internet access). Security concerns in each election caused administrative delays, although in Bolivia the delay was briefer, and the official count — entirely separate from the quick count and tabulated in person — was not affected by the suspension.

One thing, however, is entirely different: Morales was overthrown in a violent coup, with the full backing of the United States. The worst that could happen in Iowa is the state losing its first-in-the-nation status — and even that’s unlikely.

In Bolivia, the electoral authorities restarted their quick count the day after the election, showing Morales’s lead increasing to over ten percentage points. The jump was in line with the previous trends in results, but the Organization of American States (OAS), which was observing the contest, criticized the “drastic” change-in-trend, implying that fraud had taken place. Even though Morales, the outright victor based on the official count, agreed to a second-round election, he was eventually forced out of office at the behest of the military.

The United States played a significant role in legitimizing the putsch. While the OAS has still failed to provide evidence of fraud, US politicians have congratulated the OAS on its work and quickly normalized relations with the de facto government. Led by Jeanine Áñez, the new government has repressed those associated with Morales and his party in the run-up to new elections.

It’s clear that US elites have double standards for elections based on where they take place and who is winning. If the country is Venezuela or Haiti or Bolivia, and undesirable candidates are leading, the United States can throw out the results or declare whoever they want as president with little justification. If a US ally steals an election, as happened in 2017 in Honduras, the “winner” can stay the winner.

And how about the United States itself, a country that bills itself as a champion of democracy abroad? Voter suppression, gerrymandering, and undemocratic rules are now common elements of the electoral landscape. Overturning an election result, which happened in Florida in 2000, is not unheard of. In 2016, the candidate who came in second in the popular vote was inaugurated president. And while these problems are often to the detriment of Democrats, Democratic elites don’t seem to be too invested in solving them, even for their own nominating process (recent energy has been focused on stopping supposed Russian interference in elections, for example).

The ongoing Iowa caucus debacle illustrates quite a few things: the corruption and waste in the Democratic Party, the hubris around voting systems and security, and the backwardness of the US presidential nominating process. But perhaps above all it shows how voting is selectively weaponized by US elites: against left-wing candidates, against poor and working-class voters.

In Iowa, party leaders refuse to jettison a system that performed abominably and gave center stage to an undeserving, self-declared winner. Yet in Bolivia and other targets of imperialism, US elites are happy to seize on electoral hiccups — and use them to install more favorable, pro-US governments whole cloth.

Originally posted on Jacobin.

Last October, Bolivia held a presidential election that pitted incumbent Evo Morales against former president Carlos Mesa. Morales, a socialist that had been in power since 2006, was popular and successful, although his reelection bid was marred by a contentious decision to scrap presidential term limits. Many in the opposition had promised they wouldn’t recognize the results if Morales won.

On election day, as tallies trickled in and the election commission reported results from the unofficial “quick count,” Mesa preemptively declared victory, claiming that he had forced a second round of voting. (Presidential candidates in Bolivia must capture 50 percent of the vote, or must receive at least 40 percent of the vote and lead the second-place candidate by at least ten percentage points, in order to win outright.) Controversially, the election commission then stopped reporting voting tallies for the night. The outcome was up in the air.

Sound familiar?

Along with the suspension of results, both the Democratic presidential caucuses in Iowa and the presidential election in Bolivia faced geographic challenges (there were more than 1,600 precincts in Iowa and 5,300 in Bolivia, many of them rural) as well as technological hurdles (using smartphone apps to record results requires technical familiarity and internet access). Security concerns in each election caused administrative delays, although in Bolivia the delay was briefer, and the official count — entirely separate from the quick count and tabulated in person — was not affected by the suspension.

One thing, however, is entirely different: Morales was overthrown in a violent coup, with the full backing of the United States. The worst that could happen in Iowa is the state losing its first-in-the-nation status — and even that’s unlikely.

In Bolivia, the electoral authorities restarted their quick count the day after the election, showing Morales’s lead increasing to over ten percentage points. The jump was in line with the previous trends in results, but the Organization of American States (OAS), which was observing the contest, criticized the “drastic” change-in-trend, implying that fraud had taken place. Even though Morales, the outright victor based on the official count, agreed to a second-round election, he was eventually forced out of office at the behest of the military.

The United States played a significant role in legitimizing the putsch. While the OAS has still failed to provide evidence of fraud, US politicians have congratulated the OAS on its work and quickly normalized relations with the de facto government. Led by Jeanine Áñez, the new government has repressed those associated with Morales and his party in the run-up to new elections.

It’s clear that US elites have double standards for elections based on where they take place and who is winning. If the country is Venezuela or Haiti or Bolivia, and undesirable candidates are leading, the United States can throw out the results or declare whoever they want as president with little justification. If a US ally steals an election, as happened in 2017 in Honduras, the “winner” can stay the winner.

And how about the United States itself, a country that bills itself as a champion of democracy abroad? Voter suppression, gerrymandering, and undemocratic rules are now common elements of the electoral landscape. Overturning an election result, which happened in Florida in 2000, is not unheard of. In 2016, the candidate who came in second in the popular vote was inaugurated president. And while these problems are often to the detriment of Democrats, Democratic elites don’t seem to be too invested in solving them, even for their own nominating process (recent energy has been focused on stopping supposed Russian interference in elections, for example).

The ongoing Iowa caucus debacle illustrates quite a few things: the corruption and waste in the Democratic Party, the hubris around voting systems and security, and the backwardness of the US presidential nominating process. But perhaps above all it shows how voting is selectively weaponized by US elites: against left-wing candidates, against poor and working-class voters.

In Iowa, party leaders refuse to jettison a system that performed abominably and gave center stage to an undeserving, self-declared winner. Yet in Bolivia and other targets of imperialism, US elites are happy to seize on electoral hiccups — and use them to install more favorable, pro-US governments whole cloth.

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