A piece on the status of NAFTA told readers about “the extent of administration officials’ frustration with Canada.” Sorry folks, the NYT really has no idea about the actual extent of the Trump administration officials’ frustration with Canada. They know what these people say and what they do.
As folks familiar with politics know, statements from political figures do not always reflect what they think.
A piece on the status of NAFTA told readers about “the extent of administration officials’ frustration with Canada.” Sorry folks, the NYT really has no idea about the actual extent of the Trump administration officials’ frustration with Canada. They know what these people say and what they do.
As folks familiar with politics know, statements from political figures do not always reflect what they think.
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I already did a tweet on this, but thought it was worth posting here. Jake Tapper did a completely inaccurate fact check on Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez over their claim that a study by a right-wing think tank showed that Medicare for all would save the country $2 trillion over a decade (roughly 0.8 percent of GDP). Tapper misrepresented their comments to say that they claimed the study would save the government $2 trillion. He then points out that the study showed Medicare for all would hugely increase the cost of healthcare to the government.
Of course, the cost to the government will increase if it takes responsibility for the bulk of healthcare payments in the country. No one is contesting this point. The question is what happens to the cost of healthcare to the country as a whole. Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez were accurately citing one of the scenarios in the study on this point.
Tapper owes it to Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez, and more importantly to his audience, to correct himself on this one. It’s a straightforward point and he really should be able to get it right.
Note: I earlier had termed the fact check “dishonest.” This implies I know Tapper’s motives, which I don’t. I changed the term to “inaccurate.”
I already did a tweet on this, but thought it was worth posting here. Jake Tapper did a completely inaccurate fact check on Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez over their claim that a study by a right-wing think tank showed that Medicare for all would save the country $2 trillion over a decade (roughly 0.8 percent of GDP). Tapper misrepresented their comments to say that they claimed the study would save the government $2 trillion. He then points out that the study showed Medicare for all would hugely increase the cost of healthcare to the government.
Of course, the cost to the government will increase if it takes responsibility for the bulk of healthcare payments in the country. No one is contesting this point. The question is what happens to the cost of healthcare to the country as a whole. Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez were accurately citing one of the scenarios in the study on this point.
Tapper owes it to Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez, and more importantly to his audience, to correct himself on this one. It’s a straightforward point and he really should be able to get it right.
Note: I earlier had termed the fact check “dishonest.” This implies I know Tapper’s motives, which I don’t. I changed the term to “inaccurate.”
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Yes, it is yet another story of the big one is on its way. This time it’s from George Will.
Will rightly mocks Donald Trump’s boast that the 4.1 percent growth in the second quarter was extraordinary. Following Nobel laureate Robert Shiller, Will tells readers:
“…since quarterly gross domestic product enumeration began in 1947, there have been 101 quarters with growth at least equal to the 4.1 percent of this year’s second quarter. The fastest — 13.4 percent — was 1950’s fourth quarter, perhaps produced largely by bad news: The Cold War was on, the Korean War had begun in June, and fear of the atomic bomb was rising (New York City installed its first air-raid siren in October), as was (consequently) a home-building boom outside cities and ‘scare buying’ of products that might become scarce during World War III. Today, Shiller says, ‘it seems likely that people in many countries may be accelerating their purchases — of soybeans, steel and many other commodities — fearing future government intervention in the form of a trade war.’ And fearing the probable: higher interest rates.”
Hate to spoil the fun, but actually the fastest quarter of growth since 1947 was in the second quarter of 1978 when the economy grew at a 16.4 percent annual rate. I don’t recall any imminent threats of nuclear war or other really bad things at the time that could spur this growth. The fact that the second quarter figure for this year was somewhat of an aberration is likely true, but people are spending some of the tax cut. (Yes, it mostly went to the rich. But they know how to spend money also, even if they spend a smaller share of the tax cut than middle- or lower-income families.)
The more general point in Will’s piece is that the recovery has gone on for a long time and we will have another recession. These are valid points, but nothing he says in the piece provides evidence for an “epic economic collapse.”
He seems to think the high debt and deficits will somehow make the next recession especially bad but doesn’t connect any dots. There may be political obstacles to spending the money needed to boost the economy out of a recession, but that would just be the result of Republicans trying to make a Democratic president suffer politically for a bad economy. This would be the case even if the national debt was zero.
In terms of the economics, Japan has a debt-to-GDP ratio that is nearly twice as large as the US ratio and can still borrow long-term at near zero cost and has an inflation rate of less than 1.0 percent. So we get that people like George Will might be aesthetically opposed to government debt, but there is no economic reason for us to think that we will not be able to spend the money needed to boost the economy out of the next recession.
Yes, it is yet another story of the big one is on its way. This time it’s from George Will.
Will rightly mocks Donald Trump’s boast that the 4.1 percent growth in the second quarter was extraordinary. Following Nobel laureate Robert Shiller, Will tells readers:
“…since quarterly gross domestic product enumeration began in 1947, there have been 101 quarters with growth at least equal to the 4.1 percent of this year’s second quarter. The fastest — 13.4 percent — was 1950’s fourth quarter, perhaps produced largely by bad news: The Cold War was on, the Korean War had begun in June, and fear of the atomic bomb was rising (New York City installed its first air-raid siren in October), as was (consequently) a home-building boom outside cities and ‘scare buying’ of products that might become scarce during World War III. Today, Shiller says, ‘it seems likely that people in many countries may be accelerating their purchases — of soybeans, steel and many other commodities — fearing future government intervention in the form of a trade war.’ And fearing the probable: higher interest rates.”
Hate to spoil the fun, but actually the fastest quarter of growth since 1947 was in the second quarter of 1978 when the economy grew at a 16.4 percent annual rate. I don’t recall any imminent threats of nuclear war or other really bad things at the time that could spur this growth. The fact that the second quarter figure for this year was somewhat of an aberration is likely true, but people are spending some of the tax cut. (Yes, it mostly went to the rich. But they know how to spend money also, even if they spend a smaller share of the tax cut than middle- or lower-income families.)
The more general point in Will’s piece is that the recovery has gone on for a long time and we will have another recession. These are valid points, but nothing he says in the piece provides evidence for an “epic economic collapse.”
He seems to think the high debt and deficits will somehow make the next recession especially bad but doesn’t connect any dots. There may be political obstacles to spending the money needed to boost the economy out of a recession, but that would just be the result of Republicans trying to make a Democratic president suffer politically for a bad economy. This would be the case even if the national debt was zero.
In terms of the economics, Japan has a debt-to-GDP ratio that is nearly twice as large as the US ratio and can still borrow long-term at near zero cost and has an inflation rate of less than 1.0 percent. So we get that people like George Will might be aesthetically opposed to government debt, but there is no economic reason for us to think that we will not be able to spend the money needed to boost the economy out of the next recession.
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I was involved in an exchange on the extent to which economic factors, as opposed to racism, sexism, and xenophobia, played a role in Trump’s election. While this is probably not a good way to spend one’s time I kept trying to make a point that as best I can tell everyone is ignoring.
Due to worsening conditions for the working class (defined here as people without a college degree), the rate of educational upgrading has slowed dramatically over the last four decades. If we continued to see the same rate of increase in college graduation rates in the years since 1979, as we did in the years from 1959 to 1979, we would have far more college educated people and far fewer people without college degrees.
This means that even if there were zero change in the attitudes and voting behavior of white working class people, there would have been many more votes for Clinton and fewer for Trump since there would be fewer white people without college degrees and more with college degrees.
Yes, this is incredibly simplistic, but if there is something wrong with the logic, no one has bothered to tell me what it is. (Here is the earlier post I did with Sarah Rawlins for folks who want to check the numbers.)
I was involved in an exchange on the extent to which economic factors, as opposed to racism, sexism, and xenophobia, played a role in Trump’s election. While this is probably not a good way to spend one’s time I kept trying to make a point that as best I can tell everyone is ignoring.
Due to worsening conditions for the working class (defined here as people without a college degree), the rate of educational upgrading has slowed dramatically over the last four decades. If we continued to see the same rate of increase in college graduation rates in the years since 1979, as we did in the years from 1959 to 1979, we would have far more college educated people and far fewer people without college degrees.
This means that even if there were zero change in the attitudes and voting behavior of white working class people, there would have been many more votes for Clinton and fewer for Trump since there would be fewer white people without college degrees and more with college degrees.
Yes, this is incredibly simplistic, but if there is something wrong with the logic, no one has bothered to tell me what it is. (Here is the earlier post I did with Sarah Rawlins for folks who want to check the numbers.)
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Seriously, at least when it comes to its own productions, in this case, a documentary on Michael Jackson. It’s a great example of how the only principle that matters is making the rich richer.
Seriously, at least when it comes to its own productions, in this case, a documentary on Michael Jackson. It’s a great example of how the only principle that matters is making the rich richer.
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The Washington Post reported on Sarah Huckabee Sanders apology for saying that Trump had created more jobs for blacks in the first 20 months of his administration than Obama had in eight years. It then reported on her correction that in the first 20 months, dating from the election, Trump had created more jobs.
While the piece noted that economists think the president’s ability to affect the economy is limited, it would have been worth mentioning that the economy was in a free fall, losing 700,000 jobs a month at the time Obama was elected. The stimulus that he pushed through Congress first began to have an effect in April, and by the summer, the job loss had stopped. If anyone wants to make a serious comparison, this background is important.
The Washington Post reported on Sarah Huckabee Sanders apology for saying that Trump had created more jobs for blacks in the first 20 months of his administration than Obama had in eight years. It then reported on her correction that in the first 20 months, dating from the election, Trump had created more jobs.
While the piece noted that economists think the president’s ability to affect the economy is limited, it would have been worth mentioning that the economy was in a free fall, losing 700,000 jobs a month at the time Obama was elected. The stimulus that he pushed through Congress first began to have an effect in April, and by the summer, the job loss had stopped. If anyone wants to make a serious comparison, this background is important.
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That’s the question millions are asking after reading this NYT profile of France’s labor minister, Muriel Pénicaud. The largely positive piece refers to France’s “famously voluminous labor code,” then goes on to tell readers:
“The campaign to renew the French economy, one of President Emmanuel Macron’s flagship policies, involves steering toward a Nordic-style labor model known as “flexible security.” The changes aim to rebalance the welfare state by creating more flexibility for companies to hire and fire, while offering greater training and support to help workers transition to new jobs.”
This is of course how President Macron is describing his agenda. While the description may actually reflect his goals, it may also be a cover for a different agenda. France stands out among major OECD countries in limiting the growth in inequality over the last four decades.
Its economy has also not performed especially poorly. While it does have a high youth unemployment rate (which is cited in this piece), the number is deceptive. A much higher percentage of French youth choose not to work because university tuition is nearly free and the government gives stipends to students to cover living expense.
The share of French young people who are unemployed is actually very close to the rates in the United States, but it translates into a much higher unemployment rate because so many fewer French youth are working. For prime-age workers (ages 25 to 54), according to the OECD, France’s employment rate is actually slightly higher than in the United States, 80.4 percent in France, compared to 79.3 percent in the United States.
In short, France’s economy is not obviously in any sort of crisis. There are certainly ways that its economy can be improved with reforms, and perhaps this is Macron’s real agenda. However, it is also possible that he wants to bring about the same sort of upward redistribution in France that we have seen in other wealthy countries.
If that were the case, it is unlikely that Macron would announce an agenda for the purpose of giving more money to rich people. It is more likely he would have some cover, like modernizing France’s labor law.
It would be best if NYT news articles just reported on what politicians say and do and not try to tell its readers their real motives.
That’s the question millions are asking after reading this NYT profile of France’s labor minister, Muriel Pénicaud. The largely positive piece refers to France’s “famously voluminous labor code,” then goes on to tell readers:
“The campaign to renew the French economy, one of President Emmanuel Macron’s flagship policies, involves steering toward a Nordic-style labor model known as “flexible security.” The changes aim to rebalance the welfare state by creating more flexibility for companies to hire and fire, while offering greater training and support to help workers transition to new jobs.”
This is of course how President Macron is describing his agenda. While the description may actually reflect his goals, it may also be a cover for a different agenda. France stands out among major OECD countries in limiting the growth in inequality over the last four decades.
Its economy has also not performed especially poorly. While it does have a high youth unemployment rate (which is cited in this piece), the number is deceptive. A much higher percentage of French youth choose not to work because university tuition is nearly free and the government gives stipends to students to cover living expense.
The share of French young people who are unemployed is actually very close to the rates in the United States, but it translates into a much higher unemployment rate because so many fewer French youth are working. For prime-age workers (ages 25 to 54), according to the OECD, France’s employment rate is actually slightly higher than in the United States, 80.4 percent in France, compared to 79.3 percent in the United States.
In short, France’s economy is not obviously in any sort of crisis. There are certainly ways that its economy can be improved with reforms, and perhaps this is Macron’s real agenda. However, it is also possible that he wants to bring about the same sort of upward redistribution in France that we have seen in other wealthy countries.
If that were the case, it is unlikely that Macron would announce an agenda for the purpose of giving more money to rich people. It is more likely he would have some cover, like modernizing France’s labor law.
It would be best if NYT news articles just reported on what politicians say and do and not try to tell its readers their real motives.
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No, I’m not being a Trump cheerleader, I am just looking at the numbers. This piece in the Washington Post noted the lack of real wage growth and indicated the future prospects were dubious.
The year-over-year rate of inflation was 2.9 percent in July, slightly exceeding the 2.7 percent rate of growth in the average hourly wage. However, this figure was inflated by jumps in oil prices last August and September. In the next two months, these jumps fall out of the 12-month window.
If we assume that inflation will be 0.2 percent in each of the next two months, and the 12-month rate of growth of nominal wages remains at 2.7 percent, year-over-year real wage growth will be very slightly positive next month and will be 0.3 percent in September. That is hardly great wage growth, but it is positive. That is not much for Trump to brag about, but it would be wrong to say that real wages are stagnant.
It is also worth noting that the 3.1 percent growth rate projected for 2018 by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), which is the headline of the piece, is the same growth rate it projected in the Budget and Economic Outlook released in April. People reading the piece may wrongly conclude that CBO had revised its projection upward.
No, I’m not being a Trump cheerleader, I am just looking at the numbers. This piece in the Washington Post noted the lack of real wage growth and indicated the future prospects were dubious.
The year-over-year rate of inflation was 2.9 percent in July, slightly exceeding the 2.7 percent rate of growth in the average hourly wage. However, this figure was inflated by jumps in oil prices last August and September. In the next two months, these jumps fall out of the 12-month window.
If we assume that inflation will be 0.2 percent in each of the next two months, and the 12-month rate of growth of nominal wages remains at 2.7 percent, year-over-year real wage growth will be very slightly positive next month and will be 0.3 percent in September. That is hardly great wage growth, but it is positive. That is not much for Trump to brag about, but it would be wrong to say that real wages are stagnant.
It is also worth noting that the 3.1 percent growth rate projected for 2018 by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), which is the headline of the piece, is the same growth rate it projected in the Budget and Economic Outlook released in April. People reading the piece may wrongly conclude that CBO had revised its projection upward.
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That might have been worth mentioning in this NYT piece on Wisconsin’s political situation. The piece notes the conservative policies put in place by the state’s Republican governor, Scott Walker. It then notes that the unemployment rate has fallen below 3.0 percent.
In this context, it might have been worth mentioning that Minnesota, Wisconsin’s neighboring state, has an unemployment rate of 3.1 percent. Minnesota has been led by a liberal Democrat. This suggests that Wisconsin’s relatively strong labor market might be more the result of regional factors than Mr. Walker’s policies.
That might have been worth mentioning in this NYT piece on Wisconsin’s political situation. The piece notes the conservative policies put in place by the state’s Republican governor, Scott Walker. It then notes that the unemployment rate has fallen below 3.0 percent.
In this context, it might have been worth mentioning that Minnesota, Wisconsin’s neighboring state, has an unemployment rate of 3.1 percent. Minnesota has been led by a liberal Democrat. This suggests that Wisconsin’s relatively strong labor market might be more the result of regional factors than Mr. Walker’s policies.
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Politicians like to take credit for things they have little to do with it. Serious newspapers point this fact out when it happens.
The Washington Post fell down on the job in a piece that quoted Wisconsin governor Scott Walker saying, “There are more people in the workforce in Wisconsin than ever before in the history of the state.”
This is a pretty empty claim since it will be true most of the time (except recessions) for most states. Since populations generally grow, unless there is a downturn, in most months the state will have more people in the workforce than ever before.
A more serious analysis would look at the percentage of the population in the workforce. This is not at an all-time high. In June, 54.6 percent of Wisconsin’s population was in the workforce. This compared to more than 55.0 percent in 2000.
It is possible that this drop is explained by demographic changes (more older people and children today), but the percentage of people in the workforce would be the real question, not the number. The Post should have pointed this out to its readers so they would not be deceived by Walker’s nonsense boast.
Politicians like to take credit for things they have little to do with it. Serious newspapers point this fact out when it happens.
The Washington Post fell down on the job in a piece that quoted Wisconsin governor Scott Walker saying, “There are more people in the workforce in Wisconsin than ever before in the history of the state.”
This is a pretty empty claim since it will be true most of the time (except recessions) for most states. Since populations generally grow, unless there is a downturn, in most months the state will have more people in the workforce than ever before.
A more serious analysis would look at the percentage of the population in the workforce. This is not at an all-time high. In June, 54.6 percent of Wisconsin’s population was in the workforce. This compared to more than 55.0 percent in 2000.
It is possible that this drop is explained by demographic changes (more older people and children today), but the percentage of people in the workforce would be the real question, not the number. The Post should have pointed this out to its readers so they would not be deceived by Walker’s nonsense boast.
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