Beat the Press

Beat the press por Dean Baker

Beat the Press is Dean Baker's commentary on economic reporting. He is a Senior Economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR). To never miss a post, subscribe to a weekly email roundup of Beat the Press. Please also consider supporting the blog on Patreon.

The NYT had a lengthy article reporting on the Trump administration’s efforts to reverse the movement away from fee for service payments to doctors initiated by the Obama administration. Tom Price, who had been head of the the Department of Health and Human Services, was a central figure in this effort.

At one point the piece tells readers that Price:

“…had fought against what he saw as unnecessary government intervention since his days as a surgeon in the suburbs north of Atlanta.”

While it is possible that Price “saw” the new payment structures as a “unnecessary” government intervention, we might also think that Price was primarily upset about a payment system that would lower his pay and that of other doctors. It’s good that the NYT was able to determine Price’s true motives for us.

The NYT had a lengthy article reporting on the Trump administration’s efforts to reverse the movement away from fee for service payments to doctors initiated by the Obama administration. Tom Price, who had been head of the the Department of Health and Human Services, was a central figure in this effort.

At one point the piece tells readers that Price:

“…had fought against what he saw as unnecessary government intervention since his days as a surgeon in the suburbs north of Atlanta.”

While it is possible that Price “saw” the new payment structures as a “unnecessary” government intervention, we might also think that Price was primarily upset about a payment system that would lower his pay and that of other doctors. It’s good that the NYT was able to determine Price’s true motives for us.

The NYT gave us yet another account of an industry that apparently can’t get enough workers:

“Trucking is a brutal job. Drivers endure long, tedious stretches where they are inactive but have to stay focused, and they spend weeks at a time away from home. For those and other reasons, the industry’s biggest problem has been the scarcity and turnover of drivers, making it hard to keep up with shipping demand.”

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average hourly wage for production and nonsupervisory employees in the trucking industry went up 2.4 percent. If it is really the case that the industry can’t get enough drivers, they may try raising the pay. This is at least what the intro econ textbooks would say.

The NYT gave us yet another account of an industry that apparently can’t get enough workers:

“Trucking is a brutal job. Drivers endure long, tedious stretches where they are inactive but have to stay focused, and they spend weeks at a time away from home. For those and other reasons, the industry’s biggest problem has been the scarcity and turnover of drivers, making it hard to keep up with shipping demand.”

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average hourly wage for production and nonsupervisory employees in the trucking industry went up 2.4 percent. If it is really the case that the industry can’t get enough drivers, they may try raising the pay. This is at least what the intro econ textbooks would say.

That would appear to the implication of a complaint in a news story that:

“Trump also has spent time during the trip excusing predatory economic behavior of China and other countries and blaming past U.S. administrations for allowing the ‘unfair’ trade imbalances he railed against during the campaign.”

This is an interesting departure from the position the Post had generally taken in both its news and editorial page in the past, which largely derided the view that our pattern of trade was in any way detrimental to the U.S. economy. In particular, the idea that other countries might be managing their currency to maintain large trade surpluses was generally trivialized and those who argued this position were derided as “protectionist.” It is interesting that the Post appears to have completely flipped its position on this point.

That would appear to the implication of a complaint in a news story that:

“Trump also has spent time during the trip excusing predatory economic behavior of China and other countries and blaming past U.S. administrations for allowing the ‘unfair’ trade imbalances he railed against during the campaign.”

This is an interesting departure from the position the Post had generally taken in both its news and editorial page in the past, which largely derided the view that our pattern of trade was in any way detrimental to the U.S. economy. In particular, the idea that other countries might be managing their currency to maintain large trade surpluses was generally trivialized and those who argued this position were derided as “protectionist.” It is interesting that the Post appears to have completely flipped its position on this point.

A front page Washington Post article on the continued use of coal in Germany, in spite of its impact on global warming, told readers that one of the reasons it is difficult to cut back on coal is the industry employs about 20,000 people. Since most readers are unlikely to have a clear idea of the size of Germany’s labor force, it would have been helpful to point out that this comes to less than 0.05 percent of its workforce of 43.0 million.

This doesn’t mean that job loss for these workers would not still be traumatic, although Germany does provide much better unemployment benefits than the United States. It is important for readers to have some sense of how important employment in the sector is to the nation as a whole, which this piece did not give.

A front page Washington Post article on the continued use of coal in Germany, in spite of its impact on global warming, told readers that one of the reasons it is difficult to cut back on coal is the industry employs about 20,000 people. Since most readers are unlikely to have a clear idea of the size of Germany’s labor force, it would have been helpful to point out that this comes to less than 0.05 percent of its workforce of 43.0 million.

This doesn’t mean that job loss for these workers would not still be traumatic, although Germany does provide much better unemployment benefits than the United States. It is important for readers to have some sense of how important employment in the sector is to the nation as a whole, which this piece did not give.

The Washington Post refuses to follow journalistic norms and maintain a separation between the news and editorial pages when it comes to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Yet again the paper referred to the pact as a “free-trade” agreement.

Of course, the deal is not a free trade pact. It does little, if anything, to remove the barriers that protect highly paid professionals like doctors from international competition. Also, a major focus of the pact is longer and stronger patent and copyright protections.

These forms of protectionism have been a major factor in the upward redistribution of the last four decades. In the case of prescription drugs alone these protections add more than $370 billion annually (almost 2 percent of GDP) to what we spend on drugs. The Post supports these protections and apparently would like its readers to believe that they are somehow part of a free market.

The Washington Post refuses to follow journalistic norms and maintain a separation between the news and editorial pages when it comes to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Yet again the paper referred to the pact as a “free-trade” agreement.

Of course, the deal is not a free trade pact. It does little, if anything, to remove the barriers that protect highly paid professionals like doctors from international competition. Also, a major focus of the pact is longer and stronger patent and copyright protections.

These forms of protectionism have been a major factor in the upward redistribution of the last four decades. In the case of prescription drugs alone these protections add more than $370 billion annually (almost 2 percent of GDP) to what we spend on drugs. The Post supports these protections and apparently would like its readers to believe that they are somehow part of a free market.

The main claim of proponents of the Republican tax bill is that lowering corporate taxes will lead to a surge in corporate investment. This is supposed to lead to more rapid productivity growth and therefore higher wages. As those of us who are fond of data have pointed out, the world doesn't seem to work this way. There is very little relationship between after-tax profit rates and investment. In fact, the period of strongest investment was the late 1970s and early 1980s when after-tax profits were at their post-World War II low, while the current period of very high profits has been associated with lackluster investment. This leaves little reason to believe that cutting the corporate tax rate will have much impact on investment. (Of course, we also tried this trick in 1986, also with little impact on investment.)  But there is another aspect to this story that folks in the reality-based universe should be thinking about. Productivity growth has been dismal in recent years, in spite of all the talk about robots taking our jobs. (Pundits aren't paid to know anything about the world.) Over the last five years, productivity growth has averaged less than 0.7 percent annually. That compares to rates of close to 3.0 percent from 1995 to 2005 and also during the long golden age from 1947 to 1973. However this may be changing. Last quarter, productivity rose at a 3.0 percent annual rate. As everyone familiar with productivity data knows, the best thing to do with quarterly number is to ignore it. Nonetheless, a faster trend has to start somewhere and what is striking is that we seem to be on a path for another strong number for the fourth quarter.
The main claim of proponents of the Republican tax bill is that lowering corporate taxes will lead to a surge in corporate investment. This is supposed to lead to more rapid productivity growth and therefore higher wages. As those of us who are fond of data have pointed out, the world doesn't seem to work this way. There is very little relationship between after-tax profit rates and investment. In fact, the period of strongest investment was the late 1970s and early 1980s when after-tax profits were at their post-World War II low, while the current period of very high profits has been associated with lackluster investment. This leaves little reason to believe that cutting the corporate tax rate will have much impact on investment. (Of course, we also tried this trick in 1986, also with little impact on investment.)  But there is another aspect to this story that folks in the reality-based universe should be thinking about. Productivity growth has been dismal in recent years, in spite of all the talk about robots taking our jobs. (Pundits aren't paid to know anything about the world.) Over the last five years, productivity growth has averaged less than 0.7 percent annually. That compares to rates of close to 3.0 percent from 1995 to 2005 and also during the long golden age from 1947 to 1973. However this may be changing. Last quarter, productivity rose at a 3.0 percent annual rate. As everyone familiar with productivity data knows, the best thing to do with quarterly number is to ignore it. Nonetheless, a faster trend has to start somewhere and what is striking is that we seem to be on a path for another strong number for the fourth quarter.

That is effectively what he said when according to the Washington Post he claimed that “he has spoken to his own accountant about the tax plan and that he would be a ‘big loser’ if the deal is approved as written.” Of course, we don’t know exactly what Mr. Trump’s tax returns look like since he lied about releasing them once an audit was completed, but based on the one return that was made public, the plan looks like it was written to reduce his tax liability.

It reduces the tax rate for high-income people on income from pass-through corporations, which was pretty much all of Trump’s income on his return. It also eliminates the alternative minimum tax, which Trump had to pay for 2005. And it eliminates the estate tax, which Trump’s estate would almost certainly have to pay when he dies. In addition, it leaves in place a number of special tax breaks for the real estate sector, even as it eliminates them for other businesses.

It seems likely that either Mr. Trump’s accountant is incompetent or Trump lied about what they told him about the impact of the tax plan on his finances.

That is effectively what he said when according to the Washington Post he claimed that “he has spoken to his own accountant about the tax plan and that he would be a ‘big loser’ if the deal is approved as written.” Of course, we don’t know exactly what Mr. Trump’s tax returns look like since he lied about releasing them once an audit was completed, but based on the one return that was made public, the plan looks like it was written to reduce his tax liability.

It reduces the tax rate for high-income people on income from pass-through corporations, which was pretty much all of Trump’s income on his return. It also eliminates the alternative minimum tax, which Trump had to pay for 2005. And it eliminates the estate tax, which Trump’s estate would almost certainly have to pay when he dies. In addition, it leaves in place a number of special tax breaks for the real estate sector, even as it eliminates them for other businesses.

It seems likely that either Mr. Trump’s accountant is incompetent or Trump lied about what they told him about the impact of the tax plan on his finances.

Paul Krugman had an interesting blog post today on the impact of the Republican proposal to cut the corporate income tax. While he rejected the growth claims of the Trump administration, he noted the projections of the Penn-Wharton model that the tax cuts would increase GDP between 0.3 to 0.8 percent by 2027. He described this increase as “basically an invisible effect against background noise.” 

This is worth comparing with the projected gains from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). The very pro-TPP Peterson Institute projected gains of 0.5 percent of GDP by 2032. The United States International Trade Commission projected an increase in GNI (Gross National Income) of 0.23 percent by 2032. (Neither of these analyses tried to incorporate the impact of the increased protectionism in the TPP in the form of longer and stronger patent and copyright protections.)

Anyhow, if we agree with Krugman that the projected 0.3–0.8 percent of GDP gain from the cut in the corporate income tax is “basically an invisible effect against background noise,” then we can’t think the smaller and more distant projected gains from the TPP are a big deal, unless we are dishonest. (For the record, Krugman is not a guilty party here since he opposed the TPP.)  

Paul Krugman had an interesting blog post today on the impact of the Republican proposal to cut the corporate income tax. While he rejected the growth claims of the Trump administration, he noted the projections of the Penn-Wharton model that the tax cuts would increase GDP between 0.3 to 0.8 percent by 2027. He described this increase as “basically an invisible effect against background noise.” 

This is worth comparing with the projected gains from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). The very pro-TPP Peterson Institute projected gains of 0.5 percent of GDP by 2032. The United States International Trade Commission projected an increase in GNI (Gross National Income) of 0.23 percent by 2032. (Neither of these analyses tried to incorporate the impact of the increased protectionism in the TPP in the form of longer and stronger patent and copyright protections.)

Anyhow, if we agree with Krugman that the projected 0.3–0.8 percent of GDP gain from the cut in the corporate income tax is “basically an invisible effect against background noise,” then we can’t think the smaller and more distant projected gains from the TPP are a big deal, unless we are dishonest. (For the record, Krugman is not a guilty party here since he opposed the TPP.)  

It's amazing the stuff you can find in the NYT. Most of us learn at a fairly early age that the people who sit in Congress are politicians. They get there by appeasing powerful interest groups who give them the money and political support necessary to get and hold their seats. However, NYT columnist David Brooks seems to think that they get their seats as a result of their political philosophy. In his column on the tax debate, titled "the clash of social visions," Brooks tell readers: "The Republicans have a social vision. The Republican vision is that the corporate sector is more important to a healthy America than the professional and nonprofit sector. The Republican vision is that companies that thrive in the red states, like manufacturing and agriculture, are more important for the country than the industries that thrive in blue states, like finance, media, the academy and the movies." Hmmm, so the Republicans have a vision that people (like Donald Trump) who get their income from pass-through corporations (or can devise a scheme that makes it look like they get their income from pass-through corporations) should pay taxes at a lower rate than people who get their income working as a lawyer, doctor, or other highly paid professional and don't cheat the I.R.S.? And their social vision also tells Republicans that like kind transactions involving real estate (like those done by Donald Trump) should be exempt from the more general requirement that such transactions be subject to capital gains tax? (A like kind transaction involves exchanging two businesses or properties that have some general similarities.) Does the Republican social vision also tell them that heavily leveraged real estate deals (like those done by Donald Trump) should be exempt from the caps on the deductability of interest? It would also be interesting to know how the Republican social vision implies that cancer victims should not be able to deduct massive medical bills from their income taxes. It's also not clear how ending the tax deduction for the interest on college loans advances the Republican social vision.
It's amazing the stuff you can find in the NYT. Most of us learn at a fairly early age that the people who sit in Congress are politicians. They get there by appeasing powerful interest groups who give them the money and political support necessary to get and hold their seats. However, NYT columnist David Brooks seems to think that they get their seats as a result of their political philosophy. In his column on the tax debate, titled "the clash of social visions," Brooks tell readers: "The Republicans have a social vision. The Republican vision is that the corporate sector is more important to a healthy America than the professional and nonprofit sector. The Republican vision is that companies that thrive in the red states, like manufacturing and agriculture, are more important for the country than the industries that thrive in blue states, like finance, media, the academy and the movies." Hmmm, so the Republicans have a vision that people (like Donald Trump) who get their income from pass-through corporations (or can devise a scheme that makes it look like they get their income from pass-through corporations) should pay taxes at a lower rate than people who get their income working as a lawyer, doctor, or other highly paid professional and don't cheat the I.R.S.? And their social vision also tells Republicans that like kind transactions involving real estate (like those done by Donald Trump) should be exempt from the more general requirement that such transactions be subject to capital gains tax? (A like kind transaction involves exchanging two businesses or properties that have some general similarities.) Does the Republican social vision also tell them that heavily leveraged real estate deals (like those done by Donald Trump) should be exempt from the caps on the deductability of interest? It would also be interesting to know how the Republican social vision implies that cancer victims should not be able to deduct massive medical bills from their income taxes. It's also not clear how ending the tax deduction for the interest on college loans advances the Republican social vision.

It’s hard to know what is the most cynical part of a tax bill designed to give as much money as possible to Donald Trump and his family, but the elimination of the tax deduction for medical expenses has to rate pretty high on the list. The Post had a good piece on the issue, pointing out how the loss of this deduction will make life considerably more difficult for a couple dealing with early-onset Alzheimer’s disease.

This case is perhaps somewhat extreme, but it is the sort of situation in which families would be in a position to benefit from the tax deduction. It only applies to expenses in excess of 10 percent of a family’s income, so it is only people with large expenses who would be in a situation to benefit from this deduction. Eliminating this deduction is likely to be a considerable financial hardship for families dealing with serious medical conditions.

It’s hard to know what is the most cynical part of a tax bill designed to give as much money as possible to Donald Trump and his family, but the elimination of the tax deduction for medical expenses has to rate pretty high on the list. The Post had a good piece on the issue, pointing out how the loss of this deduction will make life considerably more difficult for a couple dealing with early-onset Alzheimer’s disease.

This case is perhaps somewhat extreme, but it is the sort of situation in which families would be in a position to benefit from the tax deduction. It only applies to expenses in excess of 10 percent of a family’s income, so it is only people with large expenses who would be in a situation to benefit from this deduction. Eliminating this deduction is likely to be a considerable financial hardship for families dealing with serious medical conditions.

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