We know the NYT has to practice affirmative action for conservative columnists. Otherwise, they would never have any on their opinion pages, but they might have gone too far with Bret Stephens. The guy apparently knows literally nothing about the economy and is so ignorant he doesn’t even know how little he knows.
In his latest column he touts the good economic news under Donald Trump:
“The Dow keeps hitting record highs, and the economy is finally growing above the 3 percent mark.”
This is meant to say that things are going great for the country. The new highs in the stock market are good news for the roughly 25 percent of the country that holds substantial amounts of stock. For the rest of the country, they make less difference than the outcome of this Sunday’s football games.
As fans of Econ 101 know, the stock market is a measure of expected future profits, that is when it is not in a bubble driven by irrational exuberance. So the current expectation is that after-tax corporate profits will be a larger share of future income. That’s great news for large shareholders. And guess where those larger expected profits will come from? Are you celebrating yet?
The second part of this sentence is perhaps even worse than the first part. “The economy is finally growing above the 3 percent mark.” No, the economy is not growing above the 3 percent mark, we had one quarter of growth above the 3.1 percent mark. We have had many quarters of growth above the 3.0 percent mark in this recovery.
Economic growth tends to fluctuate quarter by quarter. Those old enough to remember will recall that growth in the first quarter was just 1.2 percent. That explains part of the stronger growth in the current quarter, as weak sales of durable goods in the first quarter led to strong growth in sales in the second quarter.
Anyhow, Stephens apparently seems to think that the 3.1 percent growth in the second quarter implies that the economy is now on a growth path of above 3.0 percent. If there is any economist who agrees with this assessment, they are keeping a very low profile. For what it’s worth, the most recent projection for third quarter GDP, based on the data we have to date, is 2.3 percent.
Note: An earlier version put the 3.1 percent growth as being in the third quarter. This was reported GDP for the second quarter. Thanks to Boris Soroker.
We know the NYT has to practice affirmative action for conservative columnists. Otherwise, they would never have any on their opinion pages, but they might have gone too far with Bret Stephens. The guy apparently knows literally nothing about the economy and is so ignorant he doesn’t even know how little he knows.
In his latest column he touts the good economic news under Donald Trump:
“The Dow keeps hitting record highs, and the economy is finally growing above the 3 percent mark.”
This is meant to say that things are going great for the country. The new highs in the stock market are good news for the roughly 25 percent of the country that holds substantial amounts of stock. For the rest of the country, they make less difference than the outcome of this Sunday’s football games.
As fans of Econ 101 know, the stock market is a measure of expected future profits, that is when it is not in a bubble driven by irrational exuberance. So the current expectation is that after-tax corporate profits will be a larger share of future income. That’s great news for large shareholders. And guess where those larger expected profits will come from? Are you celebrating yet?
The second part of this sentence is perhaps even worse than the first part. “The economy is finally growing above the 3 percent mark.” No, the economy is not growing above the 3 percent mark, we had one quarter of growth above the 3.1 percent mark. We have had many quarters of growth above the 3.0 percent mark in this recovery.
Economic growth tends to fluctuate quarter by quarter. Those old enough to remember will recall that growth in the first quarter was just 1.2 percent. That explains part of the stronger growth in the current quarter, as weak sales of durable goods in the first quarter led to strong growth in sales in the second quarter.
Anyhow, Stephens apparently seems to think that the 3.1 percent growth in the second quarter implies that the economy is now on a growth path of above 3.0 percent. If there is any economist who agrees with this assessment, they are keeping a very low profile. For what it’s worth, the most recent projection for third quarter GDP, based on the data we have to date, is 2.3 percent.
Note: An earlier version put the 3.1 percent growth as being in the third quarter. This was reported GDP for the second quarter. Thanks to Boris Soroker.
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In elite circles you are supposed to be for anything called a “free trade” agreement, otherwise, people will call you names. And names really hurt highly educated people. This is why most highly educated people supported the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), even though they had no clue what was in it. As NYT columnist Thomas Friedman famously said:
“I was speaking out in Minnesota — my hometown, in fact — and a guy stood up in the audience, said, ‘Mr. Friedman, is there any free trade agreement you’d oppose?’ I said, ‘No, absolutely not.’ I said, ‘You know what, sir? I wrote a column supporting the CAFTA, the Caribbean Free Trade initiative. I didn’t even know what was in it. I just knew two words: free trade.'”
The rationale given for the TPP has constantly shifted in response to the political climate. It was originally pushed for its economic benefits in terms of more growth and jobs. However, no serious analysis could show anything other than trivial benefits for the economy.
While removing trade barriers might generally be good for growth, there are relatively few barriers remaining between the United States and the other eleven countries in the TPP. It already has trade agreements with six of these countries.
In fact, the TPP actually increases protectionist barriers in the form of longer and stronger patent and copyright and related protections. For some reason, the economic analyses don’t include the negative effects of increasing these protections, even though their impact on the prices of the affected products, most importantly prescription drugs, dwarfs the impact of lowering a tariff of one or two percentage points to zero.
Since economics won’t sell the TPP, the alternative is to make it a geo-political pact, with the main target being China. The NYT goes this route with an article that tweaks Donald Trump for his opposition to the TPP.
“Faced with such an enemy, one might imagine the United States would gather allies in a concerted effort to contain China’s mercantilist ambitions. Except that Mr. Trump, in one of his earliest actions, revoked American participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a pact promoted by his predecessor as a means of doing precisely that. He walked away while extracting no discernible benefits from China.”
The main problem with seeing the TPP as a pact designed as a weapon against China is that it doesn’t seem to have been designed that way. Most obviously, the rules of origin (ROO) provisions, which determine which items can benefit from the preferential treatment provided by the TPP, are extremely weak. For example, the ROO in the TPP require originating content of between 45 percent and 55 percent for vehicles and engines and some other car parts. For most parts, the requirement is between 35 and 45 percent. These TPP ROO are considerably weaker than the ones in NAFTA, which required 62.5 percent content from the countries in the agreement.
This matters in reference to China since China is likely to be the main provider of inputs from countries outside the pact. This means that for some car parts, China can legally provide 65 percent of the value, and still get favorable treatment through the TPP. Given the ability of companies to fudge numbers presented to customs agents, we can envision the share of Chinese content rising to 70 or 75 percent, and still getting preferential treatment under the TPP. This doesn’t sound like a pact designed in opposition to China.
In elite circles you are supposed to be for anything called a “free trade” agreement, otherwise, people will call you names. And names really hurt highly educated people. This is why most highly educated people supported the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), even though they had no clue what was in it. As NYT columnist Thomas Friedman famously said:
“I was speaking out in Minnesota — my hometown, in fact — and a guy stood up in the audience, said, ‘Mr. Friedman, is there any free trade agreement you’d oppose?’ I said, ‘No, absolutely not.’ I said, ‘You know what, sir? I wrote a column supporting the CAFTA, the Caribbean Free Trade initiative. I didn’t even know what was in it. I just knew two words: free trade.'”
The rationale given for the TPP has constantly shifted in response to the political climate. It was originally pushed for its economic benefits in terms of more growth and jobs. However, no serious analysis could show anything other than trivial benefits for the economy.
While removing trade barriers might generally be good for growth, there are relatively few barriers remaining between the United States and the other eleven countries in the TPP. It already has trade agreements with six of these countries.
In fact, the TPP actually increases protectionist barriers in the form of longer and stronger patent and copyright and related protections. For some reason, the economic analyses don’t include the negative effects of increasing these protections, even though their impact on the prices of the affected products, most importantly prescription drugs, dwarfs the impact of lowering a tariff of one or two percentage points to zero.
Since economics won’t sell the TPP, the alternative is to make it a geo-political pact, with the main target being China. The NYT goes this route with an article that tweaks Donald Trump for his opposition to the TPP.
“Faced with such an enemy, one might imagine the United States would gather allies in a concerted effort to contain China’s mercantilist ambitions. Except that Mr. Trump, in one of his earliest actions, revoked American participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a pact promoted by his predecessor as a means of doing precisely that. He walked away while extracting no discernible benefits from China.”
The main problem with seeing the TPP as a pact designed as a weapon against China is that it doesn’t seem to have been designed that way. Most obviously, the rules of origin (ROO) provisions, which determine which items can benefit from the preferential treatment provided by the TPP, are extremely weak. For example, the ROO in the TPP require originating content of between 45 percent and 55 percent for vehicles and engines and some other car parts. For most parts, the requirement is between 35 and 45 percent. These TPP ROO are considerably weaker than the ones in NAFTA, which required 62.5 percent content from the countries in the agreement.
This matters in reference to China since China is likely to be the main provider of inputs from countries outside the pact. This means that for some car parts, China can legally provide 65 percent of the value, and still get favorable treatment through the TPP. Given the ability of companies to fudge numbers presented to customs agents, we can envision the share of Chinese content rising to 70 or 75 percent, and still getting preferential treatment under the TPP. This doesn’t sound like a pact designed in opposition to China.
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The Fed has been raising interest rates for the last 21 months with the idea that it wanted to slow growth in order to prevent inflation. It has now begun the process of selling off assets, which will also have the effect of raising interest rates and slowing growth.
While the need to slow growth is premised on the fear that inflation will rise to a higher than the desired rate, the data refuse to cooperate. The Bureau of Economic Analysis released data for the personal consumption expenditure deflator (PCE) this morning. The year over year rate of inflation in the core PCE, which is the focus of the Fed, fell to 1.3 percent, from 1.4 percent in July. (The annualized rate for the last three months compared to the prior three months was slightly higher at 1.4 percent.)
Anyhow, it is difficult to see any basis for the Fed’s concern that the inflation rate will exceed its target of a 2.0 percent average rate. At least for now, it is going in the wrong direction.
The Fed has been raising interest rates for the last 21 months with the idea that it wanted to slow growth in order to prevent inflation. It has now begun the process of selling off assets, which will also have the effect of raising interest rates and slowing growth.
While the need to slow growth is premised on the fear that inflation will rise to a higher than the desired rate, the data refuse to cooperate. The Bureau of Economic Analysis released data for the personal consumption expenditure deflator (PCE) this morning. The year over year rate of inflation in the core PCE, which is the focus of the Fed, fell to 1.3 percent, from 1.4 percent in July. (The annualized rate for the last three months compared to the prior three months was slightly higher at 1.4 percent.)
Anyhow, it is difficult to see any basis for the Fed’s concern that the inflation rate will exceed its target of a 2.0 percent average rate. At least for now, it is going in the wrong direction.
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You won’t see that headline even though it is a very plausible explanation of their actions. The reason is that newspapers will say that we can’t know the motives of politicians.
That is a good practice for newspapers to follow, but unfortunately, they don’t. During the tax debate, there have already been any number of stories that have told that us that Republicans “believe” that their tax cuts will boost growth or that they are proposing tax cuts “in order to” revitalize the economy. For some reason, they are fine with attributing motives when the effect is to put these politicians in a positive light, even if they refuse as a matter of principle to attribute motives when it would reflect poorly on them.
Of course, Republicans do say that their motive is to promote economic growth, but let’s imagine for a moment that their true motive is making their wealthy contributors even richer. Do we think Paul Ryan will announce his latest tax cut proposal by telling the public how much it will give to the Koch brothers and the Mercers?
That doesn’t seem very likely. He would instead make some claim about how the tax cuts benefit the public as a whole, regardless of how implausible it might be.
And in this case, it is pretty implausible. At best tax cuts can have a very modest impact in boosting growth. The best analysis of this issue was done by the Congressional Budget Office in 2005 when it was headed by Douglas Holtz-Eakin, a Republican economist who was the chief economic adviser to Senator McCain in his presidential campaign. His analysis found that using the most favorable set of assumptions, additional growth could temporarily replace one-third of lost revenue. This revenue increase was largely offset by slower growth in the longer term.
So accepting the Republicans’ claims as to their true beliefs also requires accepting that they believe something that is not true. While this is possible, instead of engaging in speculation that assumes Republicans are ignoramuses when it comes to the economy, why not just stick to reporting what they say?
You won’t see that headline even though it is a very plausible explanation of their actions. The reason is that newspapers will say that we can’t know the motives of politicians.
That is a good practice for newspapers to follow, but unfortunately, they don’t. During the tax debate, there have already been any number of stories that have told that us that Republicans “believe” that their tax cuts will boost growth or that they are proposing tax cuts “in order to” revitalize the economy. For some reason, they are fine with attributing motives when the effect is to put these politicians in a positive light, even if they refuse as a matter of principle to attribute motives when it would reflect poorly on them.
Of course, Republicans do say that their motive is to promote economic growth, but let’s imagine for a moment that their true motive is making their wealthy contributors even richer. Do we think Paul Ryan will announce his latest tax cut proposal by telling the public how much it will give to the Koch brothers and the Mercers?
That doesn’t seem very likely. He would instead make some claim about how the tax cuts benefit the public as a whole, regardless of how implausible it might be.
And in this case, it is pretty implausible. At best tax cuts can have a very modest impact in boosting growth. The best analysis of this issue was done by the Congressional Budget Office in 2005 when it was headed by Douglas Holtz-Eakin, a Republican economist who was the chief economic adviser to Senator McCain in his presidential campaign. His analysis found that using the most favorable set of assumptions, additional growth could temporarily replace one-third of lost revenue. This revenue increase was largely offset by slower growth in the longer term.
So accepting the Republicans’ claims as to their true beliefs also requires accepting that they believe something that is not true. While this is possible, instead of engaging in speculation that assumes Republicans are ignoramuses when it comes to the economy, why not just stick to reporting what they say?
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There has been much bizarre reporting on the Republican proposal for a big cut in taxes on income from pass-through businesses. The proposal would have a top tax rate on the income from pass-through businesses at 25 percent. This is routinely reported as a cut in taxes on businesses.
This makes zero sense as any fan of English and logic should be able to see right away. The tax cut is on income from “pass-through” businesses, as in businesses that don’t pay taxes. The tax break is for the individual that gets the money, not the business, which already pays zero tax.
Furthermore, since the overwhelming majority of the people who get income from pass-through businesses are not especially rich, they are already paying taxes at a 25 percent rate or less. The only people who would benefit from this lower tax rate are high-income people who are in a higher tax bracket.
It is bizarre that this is reported as a reduction in a tax on business. These businesses already pay zero tax. Their tax can’t be reduced further unless the government were to have a policy of subsidizing them.
This is a proposal to tax individual income received from owning a business at a lower rate than other income. This means that a lawyer who works for a law firm and receives a salary would be taxed at a higher rate than a lawyer who formed a pass-through corporation and received income from this corporation.
This difference in tax rates, based on the source of income, is pretty much a textbook example of bad tax policy. It gives a strong incentive for people to play games with the tax system. This is a pure waste of resources on unproductive activity. It will slow economic growth.
It also makes the system less progressive since the only people who will be able to take advantage of these tax tricks are relatively wealthy. In addition, the people who run the tax gaming will also make lots of money since they will get a cut of the tax savings. Tax gaming is a major source of inequality since the people who run the tax games get rich. (Think of private equity partners.)
Anyhow, there is no reason for the media to help this tax cut proposal gain public support by calling it a tax cut on business. It isn’t.
There has been much bizarre reporting on the Republican proposal for a big cut in taxes on income from pass-through businesses. The proposal would have a top tax rate on the income from pass-through businesses at 25 percent. This is routinely reported as a cut in taxes on businesses.
This makes zero sense as any fan of English and logic should be able to see right away. The tax cut is on income from “pass-through” businesses, as in businesses that don’t pay taxes. The tax break is for the individual that gets the money, not the business, which already pays zero tax.
Furthermore, since the overwhelming majority of the people who get income from pass-through businesses are not especially rich, they are already paying taxes at a 25 percent rate or less. The only people who would benefit from this lower tax rate are high-income people who are in a higher tax bracket.
It is bizarre that this is reported as a reduction in a tax on business. These businesses already pay zero tax. Their tax can’t be reduced further unless the government were to have a policy of subsidizing them.
This is a proposal to tax individual income received from owning a business at a lower rate than other income. This means that a lawyer who works for a law firm and receives a salary would be taxed at a higher rate than a lawyer who formed a pass-through corporation and received income from this corporation.
This difference in tax rates, based on the source of income, is pretty much a textbook example of bad tax policy. It gives a strong incentive for people to play games with the tax system. This is a pure waste of resources on unproductive activity. It will slow economic growth.
It also makes the system less progressive since the only people who will be able to take advantage of these tax tricks are relatively wealthy. In addition, the people who run the tax gaming will also make lots of money since they will get a cut of the tax savings. Tax gaming is a major source of inequality since the people who run the tax games get rich. (Think of private equity partners.)
Anyhow, there is no reason for the media to help this tax cut proposal gain public support by calling it a tax cut on business. It isn’t.
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Dana Milbank had a column in the paper with the headline, “Is it really ethical to expect Tom Price to fly coach?” (The title is slightly different in the online edition.) The problem with this title is that the issue is not whether Price should fly coach or first class, the issue is his use of private jets for government travel.
People reading the piece would learn this fact, but of course, a large percent of readers will only see the headline. (Since this is a Dana Milbank column, that is likely to be a very large percent.) These readers will think this is a relatively trivial point about whether cabinet secretaries should be able to fly first class, as opposed to the actual issue of taking a private plane, which might cost one hundred times as much.
Dana Milbank had a column in the paper with the headline, “Is it really ethical to expect Tom Price to fly coach?” (The title is slightly different in the online edition.) The problem with this title is that the issue is not whether Price should fly coach or first class, the issue is his use of private jets for government travel.
People reading the piece would learn this fact, but of course, a large percent of readers will only see the headline. (Since this is a Dana Milbank column, that is likely to be a very large percent.) These readers will think this is a relatively trivial point about whether cabinet secretaries should be able to fly first class, as opposed to the actual issue of taking a private plane, which might cost one hundred times as much.
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Well, sort of, at least you can say that if the NYT columnist had any idea of what he was talking about. Friedman filled his column today with typical Friedmanesque nonsense, which included this paragraph:
“We’re going through a change in the ‘climate’ of globalization — going from an interconnected world to an interdependent one, from a world of walls where you build your wealth by hoarding the most resources to a world of webs where you build your wealth by having the most connections to the flow of ideas, networks, innovators and entrepreneurs. In this interdependent world, connectivity leads to prosperity and isolation leads to poverty. We got rich by being ‘America Connected’ not ‘America First’ (emphasis in original).”
If it’s actually the case that we build wealth by “having the most connections” and not having walls and hoarding, then we certainly should be opposed to patent and copyright monopolies. These monopolies, which often take the form of walls (paywalls), are quite explicitly designed to limit connections. They are hoarding.
Of course, Mr. Friedman has probably never given a moment’s thought to the efficiency of patent and copyright protection in the modern world. After all, he is not expected to have serious ideas on important issues, he is just a newspaper columnist.
Well, sort of, at least you can say that if the NYT columnist had any idea of what he was talking about. Friedman filled his column today with typical Friedmanesque nonsense, which included this paragraph:
“We’re going through a change in the ‘climate’ of globalization — going from an interconnected world to an interdependent one, from a world of walls where you build your wealth by hoarding the most resources to a world of webs where you build your wealth by having the most connections to the flow of ideas, networks, innovators and entrepreneurs. In this interdependent world, connectivity leads to prosperity and isolation leads to poverty. We got rich by being ‘America Connected’ not ‘America First’ (emphasis in original).”
If it’s actually the case that we build wealth by “having the most connections” and not having walls and hoarding, then we certainly should be opposed to patent and copyright monopolies. These monopolies, which often take the form of walls (paywalls), are quite explicitly designed to limit connections. They are hoarding.
Of course, Mr. Friedman has probably never given a moment’s thought to the efficiency of patent and copyright protection in the modern world. After all, he is not expected to have serious ideas on important issues, he is just a newspaper columnist.
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This is an important point that was left out of a NYT piece discussing Janet Yellen plans for the Federal Reserve Board’s interest rate policy. The piece gave Yellen’s comment that it would be bad policy to wait until inflation was at 2.0 percent before more aggressively raising interest rates.
While Yellen may have been using shorthand, as she has repeatedly pointed out, the Fed views the 2.0 percent average inflation as a target. The 2.0 percent figure is not viewed as a ceiling. This means that it should be prepared to tolerate and even want periods in which inflation is somewhat above 2.0 percent. Since there will be a recession at some point, and inflation is expected to fall in a recession, to maintain a 2.0 percent average inflation rate, the rate should be somewhat above 2.0 percent before the next recession.
Given this reality, the Fed has been falling substantially short of the inflation target it set for itself.
This is an important point that was left out of a NYT piece discussing Janet Yellen plans for the Federal Reserve Board’s interest rate policy. The piece gave Yellen’s comment that it would be bad policy to wait until inflation was at 2.0 percent before more aggressively raising interest rates.
While Yellen may have been using shorthand, as she has repeatedly pointed out, the Fed views the 2.0 percent average inflation as a target. The 2.0 percent figure is not viewed as a ceiling. This means that it should be prepared to tolerate and even want periods in which inflation is somewhat above 2.0 percent. Since there will be a recession at some point, and inflation is expected to fall in a recession, to maintain a 2.0 percent average inflation rate, the rate should be somewhat above 2.0 percent before the next recession.
Given this reality, the Fed has been falling substantially short of the inflation target it set for itself.
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