Beat the Press

Beat the press por Dean Baker

Beat the Press is Dean Baker's commentary on economic reporting. He is a Senior Economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR). To never miss a post, subscribe to a weekly email roundup of Beat the Press. Please also consider supporting the blog on Patreon.

Apparently the NYT feels it has to protect Chris Christie from his unpopular proposals. In an article on the Republican presidential candidates, it told readers:

“He [Christie] has not spent as much time in New Hampshire as some other candidates, and he chose to focus on introducing his own policy ideas, like major changes to Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.”

Christie has proposed raising the normal retirement age to 69, which is equivalent to a 12 percent cut in benefits. He would also raise the early retirement age, when people are first eligible for benefits, from 62 to 64. In addition, he would cut benefits for people with income over $80,000 a year and eliminate them altogether for people with incomes over $200,000.

These are very serious cuts to Social Security. The NYT should be reporting what Governor Christie is proposing for Social Security, not using euphemisms to hide the substance of the plan he has put forward.

 

Note: Numbers corrected, thanks John.

Apparently the NYT feels it has to protect Chris Christie from his unpopular proposals. In an article on the Republican presidential candidates, it told readers:

“He [Christie] has not spent as much time in New Hampshire as some other candidates, and he chose to focus on introducing his own policy ideas, like major changes to Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.”

Christie has proposed raising the normal retirement age to 69, which is equivalent to a 12 percent cut in benefits. He would also raise the early retirement age, when people are first eligible for benefits, from 62 to 64. In addition, he would cut benefits for people with income over $80,000 a year and eliminate them altogether for people with incomes over $200,000.

These are very serious cuts to Social Security. The NYT should be reporting what Governor Christie is proposing for Social Security, not using euphemisms to hide the substance of the plan he has put forward.

 

Note: Numbers corrected, thanks John.

Neil Irwin had an interesting Upshot piece that noted polling data showing people do not favor much higher taxes on the rich. It questioned why it was that people were opposed to redistribution even though inequality has become a major national concern.

A major problem with this sort of analysis is that it treats distribution as though it is only a function of tax policy. This is clearly secondary. The upward redistribution of the last 35 years was overwhelmingly the result of government policies that structured the market to favor the wealthy.

For example, trade policy has been quite explicitly designed to put manufacturing workers in direct competition with low-paid workers in the developing world. The predicted and actual effect of this policy is to reduce their wages and also the wages of non-college educated workers more generally. By contrast, doctors and other highly-paid professionals (who comprise much of the one percent) have been largely protected from international competition. The argument for exposing these professionals to competition is the same as the argument for trade more generally: it will lead to lower prices and more economic growth. But because of the political power of these groups, free trade in the services of doctors and other professionals is not even discussed in polite circles.

The Federal Reserve Board has also quite explicitly adopted policies that keep unemployment higher than in the years prior to 1980. Higher rates of unemployment not only deny workers jobs, but they also reduce their bargaining power, thereby preventing them from getting wage increases. The government’s labor policies have also been much more hostile to workers over the last three decades, making it far more difficult to form unions. And, the government handed out trillions of dollars in below-market interest rate loans to rescue Wall Street banks and prevent the market from working its magic.

Given a whole set of policies that have redistributed a massive amount of income upward, it is understandable that many people would not trust the government to be taxing the rich to help the poor and middle class. 

 

Neil Irwin had an interesting Upshot piece that noted polling data showing people do not favor much higher taxes on the rich. It questioned why it was that people were opposed to redistribution even though inequality has become a major national concern.

A major problem with this sort of analysis is that it treats distribution as though it is only a function of tax policy. This is clearly secondary. The upward redistribution of the last 35 years was overwhelmingly the result of government policies that structured the market to favor the wealthy.

For example, trade policy has been quite explicitly designed to put manufacturing workers in direct competition with low-paid workers in the developing world. The predicted and actual effect of this policy is to reduce their wages and also the wages of non-college educated workers more generally. By contrast, doctors and other highly-paid professionals (who comprise much of the one percent) have been largely protected from international competition. The argument for exposing these professionals to competition is the same as the argument for trade more generally: it will lead to lower prices and more economic growth. But because of the political power of these groups, free trade in the services of doctors and other professionals is not even discussed in polite circles.

The Federal Reserve Board has also quite explicitly adopted policies that keep unemployment higher than in the years prior to 1980. Higher rates of unemployment not only deny workers jobs, but they also reduce their bargaining power, thereby preventing them from getting wage increases. The government’s labor policies have also been much more hostile to workers over the last three decades, making it far more difficult to form unions. And, the government handed out trillions of dollars in below-market interest rate loans to rescue Wall Street banks and prevent the market from working its magic.

Given a whole set of policies that have redistributed a massive amount of income upward, it is understandable that many people would not trust the government to be taxing the rich to help the poor and middle class. 

 

According to inside reports, the main reason the Washington Post opposes nuclear war is because of its impact on the budget deficit. The paper’s never ending obsession with the budget deficit, even as it is clear that we have been suffering from a deficit that is too small, is a testament to the ability of people to ignore reality. 

Ruth Marcus treated us to another example of this obsession when she warned of a restructuring of Medicare payments that comes at the cost of:

“a whopping half-a-trillion dollars over the next 20 years… .”

A bit of context might be helpful here. While none of us will see a half trillion dollars in our lifetime, the federal government will see considerably more than this over the next twenty years.

The Congressional Budget Office projects GDP will be more than $550 trillion over the next two decades, making this whopping sum less than 0.1 percent of GDP over this period. Federal revenue will be roughly $100 trillion so this comes to around half of one percent of projected revenue. That’s hardly trivial, but if it’s “whopping,” then whopping ain’t what it used to be.

It is also worth noting that if Ruth Marcus and the Washington Post are really concerned about budget deficits, they could support more expansionary policy from the Fed. In addition to giving millions of workers jobs and tens of millions the bargaining power they need to get pay increases, lower unemployment due to expansionary Fed policy can easily knock $2 trillion off the size of the deficit over the next decade. That’s four times “whopping.” (It could also support trade policy that reduces health care costs by exposing doctors to international competition and weakens patent protection for drugs.)

According to inside reports, the main reason the Washington Post opposes nuclear war is because of its impact on the budget deficit. The paper’s never ending obsession with the budget deficit, even as it is clear that we have been suffering from a deficit that is too small, is a testament to the ability of people to ignore reality. 

Ruth Marcus treated us to another example of this obsession when she warned of a restructuring of Medicare payments that comes at the cost of:

“a whopping half-a-trillion dollars over the next 20 years… .”

A bit of context might be helpful here. While none of us will see a half trillion dollars in our lifetime, the federal government will see considerably more than this over the next twenty years.

The Congressional Budget Office projects GDP will be more than $550 trillion over the next two decades, making this whopping sum less than 0.1 percent of GDP over this period. Federal revenue will be roughly $100 trillion so this comes to around half of one percent of projected revenue. That’s hardly trivial, but if it’s “whopping,” then whopping ain’t what it used to be.

It is also worth noting that if Ruth Marcus and the Washington Post are really concerned about budget deficits, they could support more expansionary policy from the Fed. In addition to giving millions of workers jobs and tens of millions the bargaining power they need to get pay increases, lower unemployment due to expansionary Fed policy can easily knock $2 trillion off the size of the deficit over the next decade. That’s four times “whopping.” (It could also support trade policy that reduces health care costs by exposing doctors to international competition and weakens patent protection for drugs.)

The paper must have assumed everyone knew the answer to this question since it didn’t bother to put these budget numbers in any context, like expressing them as a share of the total budget. These numbers appeared in an article on the fiscal situations of states this year.

Incredibly, the article threw out numbers for budget shortfalls and gave readers no context whatsoever. While the Post undoubtedly has a well-educated readership, it is not likely that many are familiar with the relative sizes of different state budgets.

The Post’s reporter could have taken five minutes to look up these numbers. This would have made it possible to tell readers that Kansas’ $1 billion shortfall is a bit more than 4 percent of its $24 billion budget, while Pennsylvania’s $1.8 billion gap is a bit more than 1.3 percent of its $130 billion budget.

Is there some reason that a reporter can’t spare the few minutes necessary to write these numbers in a way that would make them meaningful to most of the people who read them? Is there some reason that the Post’s editors don’t demand they put numbers in context rather than writing numbers that are meaningless to almost everyone who reads them?

The paper must have assumed everyone knew the answer to this question since it didn’t bother to put these budget numbers in any context, like expressing them as a share of the total budget. These numbers appeared in an article on the fiscal situations of states this year.

Incredibly, the article threw out numbers for budget shortfalls and gave readers no context whatsoever. While the Post undoubtedly has a well-educated readership, it is not likely that many are familiar with the relative sizes of different state budgets.

The Post’s reporter could have taken five minutes to look up these numbers. This would have made it possible to tell readers that Kansas’ $1 billion shortfall is a bit more than 4 percent of its $24 billion budget, while Pennsylvania’s $1.8 billion gap is a bit more than 1.3 percent of its $130 billion budget.

Is there some reason that a reporter can’t spare the few minutes necessary to write these numbers in a way that would make them meaningful to most of the people who read them? Is there some reason that the Post’s editors don’t demand they put numbers in context rather than writing numbers that are meaningless to almost everyone who reads them?

That’s the question millions are asking after reading Matthew Yglesias’ piece arguing that former Obama political adviser David Plouffe is cashing in the right way by working as a lobbyist for Uber. Matt argues that Plouffe is getting rich by openly arguing for a cause that he believes in. I’m not convinced.

First, Matt argues that if Plouffe thought the incumbent taxi industry was mostly right in its battles with Uber, then he could have gone to work lobbying for them. While this is true, my guess is that the incumbent cab industry would have a hard time coming up with the same sort of paycheck as Uber, a company with a $40 billion market capitalization. I doubt the industry collectively can come close to matching a $40 billion market capitalization. Furthermore, given the difficulties of coordination, it is extremely unlikely that their association would be able to toss around the same sort of cash for lobbyists as Uber even if the incumbents collectively had the same resources.

The other more important reason why I’m not convinced that Plouffe believes that he is on the side of the angels, is that the angels don’t have to cheat to make their case. Here I’m referring to the study that Alan Krueger, the former head of Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, did on the pay of Uber drivers. Uber gave Kreuger data on drivers’ gross earnings per trip, as well as the number of trips they did per hour. This allowed Krueger to calculate that they grossed on average $6.00 an hour more than the net earnings of drivers for the incumbent cab industry.

What Krueger could not do was make a comparison of net earnings. While there is no way for Uber to know exactly how much it costs its drivers for each mile driven, we do have data on this issue. (The IRS puts the cost at 57 cents per mile.) This means that if we know the length of an average trip, then we could get a pretty good estimate of the net earnings of Uber drivers. (Actually, we would still need to factor in miles driven to and from pick-ups and dropoffs.) 

Unfortunately, Krueger tells us that he didn’t have data on average miles per trip. Of course Uber would have very good data on miles per trip. If Kreuger didn’t have the data it’s because Uber chose not to give it to him. Presumably Uber opted not to share the data on miles per trip because it knew the data would make them look bad. Therefore, it opted to withhold these data from Kreuger so he could not do a full analysis.

Getting back to Plouffe’s motives, if he really believed in the virtues of Uber, then he should not have a problem with Uber giving all the data to Kreuger and letting him tell the whole story. The fact that Uber withheld the data indicates that Plouffe and the folks at Uber feel they have something to hide and therefore don’t entirely believe in the merits of their case. (I’m assuming that Plouffe was involved in arranging this study.)

So I’m afraid I can’t agree with Matt here. My guess is that Plouffe went with the highest bidder.

That’s the question millions are asking after reading Matthew Yglesias’ piece arguing that former Obama political adviser David Plouffe is cashing in the right way by working as a lobbyist for Uber. Matt argues that Plouffe is getting rich by openly arguing for a cause that he believes in. I’m not convinced.

First, Matt argues that if Plouffe thought the incumbent taxi industry was mostly right in its battles with Uber, then he could have gone to work lobbying for them. While this is true, my guess is that the incumbent cab industry would have a hard time coming up with the same sort of paycheck as Uber, a company with a $40 billion market capitalization. I doubt the industry collectively can come close to matching a $40 billion market capitalization. Furthermore, given the difficulties of coordination, it is extremely unlikely that their association would be able to toss around the same sort of cash for lobbyists as Uber even if the incumbents collectively had the same resources.

The other more important reason why I’m not convinced that Plouffe believes that he is on the side of the angels, is that the angels don’t have to cheat to make their case. Here I’m referring to the study that Alan Krueger, the former head of Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, did on the pay of Uber drivers. Uber gave Kreuger data on drivers’ gross earnings per trip, as well as the number of trips they did per hour. This allowed Krueger to calculate that they grossed on average $6.00 an hour more than the net earnings of drivers for the incumbent cab industry.

What Krueger could not do was make a comparison of net earnings. While there is no way for Uber to know exactly how much it costs its drivers for each mile driven, we do have data on this issue. (The IRS puts the cost at 57 cents per mile.) This means that if we know the length of an average trip, then we could get a pretty good estimate of the net earnings of Uber drivers. (Actually, we would still need to factor in miles driven to and from pick-ups and dropoffs.) 

Unfortunately, Krueger tells us that he didn’t have data on average miles per trip. Of course Uber would have very good data on miles per trip. If Kreuger didn’t have the data it’s because Uber chose not to give it to him. Presumably Uber opted not to share the data on miles per trip because it knew the data would make them look bad. Therefore, it opted to withhold these data from Kreuger so he could not do a full analysis.

Getting back to Plouffe’s motives, if he really believed in the virtues of Uber, then he should not have a problem with Uber giving all the data to Kreuger and letting him tell the whole story. The fact that Uber withheld the data indicates that Plouffe and the folks at Uber feel they have something to hide and therefore don’t entirely believe in the merits of their case. (I’m assuming that Plouffe was involved in arranging this study.)

So I’m afraid I can’t agree with Matt here. My guess is that Plouffe went with the highest bidder.

It’s repeal the estate tax season, which means we are hearing all sorts of nonsense about how the tax forces people to sell their family farm or business. It should be self-evident that this is nonsense since no one owes a penny of tax on an estate worth less than $5.4 million. And, just to be clear, this is net of debt. If the “family farm” is worth $10 million, but comes with $5 million in debt, then the net worth is $5 million, meaning the kids get it after paying zero in tax.

But if you still think that families are losing their farms because of the tax, then it’s worth going back to an old NYT story by David Cay Johnston. Johnston called the American Farm Bureau, a major lobbyist against the tax, and asked to be put in contact with someone who had lost their farm due to the estate tax. The Farm Bureau could not produce a single family anywhere in the country who had lost their farm as a result of the tax.

In short, families do not lose farms or businesses due to the estate tax. They lose them because the next generation doesn’t feel like operating them. This is just one more story that politicians tell in order to justify reducing taxes on the very wealthy. The media should point this fact out.

It’s repeal the estate tax season, which means we are hearing all sorts of nonsense about how the tax forces people to sell their family farm or business. It should be self-evident that this is nonsense since no one owes a penny of tax on an estate worth less than $5.4 million. And, just to be clear, this is net of debt. If the “family farm” is worth $10 million, but comes with $5 million in debt, then the net worth is $5 million, meaning the kids get it after paying zero in tax.

But if you still think that families are losing their farms because of the tax, then it’s worth going back to an old NYT story by David Cay Johnston. Johnston called the American Farm Bureau, a major lobbyist against the tax, and asked to be put in contact with someone who had lost their farm due to the estate tax. The Farm Bureau could not produce a single family anywhere in the country who had lost their farm as a result of the tax.

In short, families do not lose farms or businesses due to the estate tax. They lose them because the next generation doesn’t feel like operating them. This is just one more story that politicians tell in order to justify reducing taxes on the very wealthy. The media should point this fact out.

Like many other folks connected with the Washington Post, columnist Charles Lane wants to cut Social Security. He used his column today to argue that New Jersey governor Chris Christie and Massachusetts senator Elizabeth Warren want to address the shortfall in Social Security in essentially the same way, but progressives are too dumb to recognize this fact. "The irony is that the progressive plan and Christie’s plan are equivalent, at least in their very broad financial strokes. Both claim to match Social Security resources and obligations over time, and to accomplish this progressively; that is, with upper-income folks bearing a relatively higher share of the adjustment costs." While Lane may see Christie’s proposal to means-test Social Security benefits as being essentially the same as Warren’s plan to eliminate the cap on wage income subject to the Social Security tax, the numbers indicate otherwise. Christie has said that he would means-test benefits on people with income above $80,000 with the idea of phasing out all benefits for people with incomes over $200,000. If we assume that these people have benefits of roughly $30,000 a year (this is a bit less than the average benefit projected for a high income earner in 2025), this means that we would be phasing out $30,000 in benefits over an income span of $120,000 (the difference between the $200,000 end point and the $80,000 start point). That is equivalent to a 25 percentage point increase in the marginal tax rate for retirees whose income falls within this band. Under the Christie plan, retirees with incomes above $200,000 would see no further cuts than those with incomes of $200,000 since they will have already lost all of their Social Security. This means that those with income of $2 million or even $20 million would face the same income loss as those with income of $200,000. Of course his plan also does not affect at all people who are still working and not collecting Social Security. There is also the issue of taking away a benefit that workers have paid for. After all, we could means-test interest payments on government bonds, but that apparently does not bother either Christie or Lane. In addition, we are likely to see substantial distortions as upper income retirees find ways to hide income (e.g. buy a condo for winter vacations rather than use investment income to pay for a hotel). But such distortions apparently do not matter to Lane and Christie, even though they are likely to substantially reduce the savings from means-testing.
Like many other folks connected with the Washington Post, columnist Charles Lane wants to cut Social Security. He used his column today to argue that New Jersey governor Chris Christie and Massachusetts senator Elizabeth Warren want to address the shortfall in Social Security in essentially the same way, but progressives are too dumb to recognize this fact. "The irony is that the progressive plan and Christie’s plan are equivalent, at least in their very broad financial strokes. Both claim to match Social Security resources and obligations over time, and to accomplish this progressively; that is, with upper-income folks bearing a relatively higher share of the adjustment costs." While Lane may see Christie’s proposal to means-test Social Security benefits as being essentially the same as Warren’s plan to eliminate the cap on wage income subject to the Social Security tax, the numbers indicate otherwise. Christie has said that he would means-test benefits on people with income above $80,000 with the idea of phasing out all benefits for people with incomes over $200,000. If we assume that these people have benefits of roughly $30,000 a year (this is a bit less than the average benefit projected for a high income earner in 2025), this means that we would be phasing out $30,000 in benefits over an income span of $120,000 (the difference between the $200,000 end point and the $80,000 start point). That is equivalent to a 25 percentage point increase in the marginal tax rate for retirees whose income falls within this band. Under the Christie plan, retirees with incomes above $200,000 would see no further cuts than those with incomes of $200,000 since they will have already lost all of their Social Security. This means that those with income of $2 million or even $20 million would face the same income loss as those with income of $200,000. Of course his plan also does not affect at all people who are still working and not collecting Social Security. There is also the issue of taking away a benefit that workers have paid for. After all, we could means-test interest payments on government bonds, but that apparently does not bother either Christie or Lane. In addition, we are likely to see substantial distortions as upper income retirees find ways to hide income (e.g. buy a condo for winter vacations rather than use investment income to pay for a hotel). But such distortions apparently do not matter to Lane and Christie, even though they are likely to substantially reduce the savings from means-testing.

The NYT gave Germany’s finance minister, Wolfgang Schauble, the opportunity to lay out his government’s position on austerity in a column today. I don’t have time to go through the piece in detail (there is not much new here), but I will make a couple of points.

First, Schauble touts the reform record of Spain and Ireland, Germany’s star pupils. It’s worth noting that, rather than being spendthrifts, both countries had budget surpluses before the crisis and had debt to GDP ratios well below Germany’s. Nonetheless they are still being forced to pay an enormous cost. The I.M.F. projects that both countries will first exceed their pre-crisis level of per capita income in 2018, that’s a performance considerably worse than the United States in the Great Depression. Even then, Spain is still projected to face an unemployment rate of 18.8 percent. Both countries have seen enormous cuts to public services and faced large tax increases. And, these are Schauble’s success stories.

The other point concerns the impact of structural problems on growth. In fact, many labor market protections have little or no impact on growth, but even where regulations lead to inefficiencies they do not necessary prevent an economy from having healthy growth. An obvious example is the health care system in the United States, where protections for doctors, drug companies, medical equipment suppliers and other providers may add as much as 8 percentage points of GDP to our health care costs (@$1.4 trillion a year). These distortions obviously slow growth, but they have not prevented the U.S. from having a relatively good economic performance over most of the last four decades.

The same is likely true of many of the distortions that have Schauble upset. Some of these may in fact slow growth in Greece, Spain. and other crisis countries. However, they would not prevent them from having functioning economies, if German did not insist on macroeconomic policies that strangled growth.

The NYT gave Germany’s finance minister, Wolfgang Schauble, the opportunity to lay out his government’s position on austerity in a column today. I don’t have time to go through the piece in detail (there is not much new here), but I will make a couple of points.

First, Schauble touts the reform record of Spain and Ireland, Germany’s star pupils. It’s worth noting that, rather than being spendthrifts, both countries had budget surpluses before the crisis and had debt to GDP ratios well below Germany’s. Nonetheless they are still being forced to pay an enormous cost. The I.M.F. projects that both countries will first exceed their pre-crisis level of per capita income in 2018, that’s a performance considerably worse than the United States in the Great Depression. Even then, Spain is still projected to face an unemployment rate of 18.8 percent. Both countries have seen enormous cuts to public services and faced large tax increases. And, these are Schauble’s success stories.

The other point concerns the impact of structural problems on growth. In fact, many labor market protections have little or no impact on growth, but even where regulations lead to inefficiencies they do not necessary prevent an economy from having healthy growth. An obvious example is the health care system in the United States, where protections for doctors, drug companies, medical equipment suppliers and other providers may add as much as 8 percentage points of GDP to our health care costs (@$1.4 trillion a year). These distortions obviously slow growth, but they have not prevented the U.S. from having a relatively good economic performance over most of the last four decades.

The same is likely true of many of the distortions that have Schauble upset. Some of these may in fact slow growth in Greece, Spain. and other crisis countries. However, they would not prevent them from having functioning economies, if German did not insist on macroeconomic policies that strangled growth.

That probably should have been the headline of a Politico article [sorry, behind paywall] on a letter signed by 13 former Democratic governors urging Congress to approve fast-track trade authority to facilitate the passage of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Pact (TTIP). The most newsworthy aspect of the letter is that the governors apparently do not understand the basic economics of trade.

In the letter the governors tell members of Congress:

“We’ve seen firsthand the benefits of trade to our communities. Increased exports have been a major component of economic development across all 50 states, adding $760 billion to our economy between 2009 and 2014 — one-third of our total growth. And this growth has supported 1.8 million new jobs and raised wages (up to 18 percent on average) for real people that we’ve met — the manufacturing worker in Kentucky, the computer technician in Massachusetts, the dairy farmer in Wisconsin — whose jobs are related to exports.”

This paragraph implies that the governors don’t realize that it is net exports, not exports, that add to growth and employment. To see this distinction, if the manufacturing worker in Kentucky they saw first hand, was producing a part for a car that used to be assembled in Ohio, but is now assembled in Mexico, she would have one of the jobs the governors are attributing to exports. Of course the assembly worker in Ohio has now lost her job, but apparently the Democratic governors don’t know about him. This lost job would be picked up if we looked at net exports, since we would subtract the full value of the car when it was imported back from Mexico. 

If the governors had done their arithmetic right, instead of boasting about the $760 billion increase in exports, they would have been complaining about the $140 billion decline in net exports, since imports rose by $890 billion between 2009 and 2014. This means that trade was a drag on growth in the recovery, costing the country jobs and putting downward pressure on wages.

It is extraordinary when people who have held important public positions (one of the signers is former Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius) show themselves to be completely ignorant on such a fundamental policy issue. Politico should have called its readers’ attention to these former governors misunderstanding of the way in which trade affects the economy, jobs, and wages.

That probably should have been the headline of a Politico article [sorry, behind paywall] on a letter signed by 13 former Democratic governors urging Congress to approve fast-track trade authority to facilitate the passage of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Pact (TTIP). The most newsworthy aspect of the letter is that the governors apparently do not understand the basic economics of trade.

In the letter the governors tell members of Congress:

“We’ve seen firsthand the benefits of trade to our communities. Increased exports have been a major component of economic development across all 50 states, adding $760 billion to our economy between 2009 and 2014 — one-third of our total growth. And this growth has supported 1.8 million new jobs and raised wages (up to 18 percent on average) for real people that we’ve met — the manufacturing worker in Kentucky, the computer technician in Massachusetts, the dairy farmer in Wisconsin — whose jobs are related to exports.”

This paragraph implies that the governors don’t realize that it is net exports, not exports, that add to growth and employment. To see this distinction, if the manufacturing worker in Kentucky they saw first hand, was producing a part for a car that used to be assembled in Ohio, but is now assembled in Mexico, she would have one of the jobs the governors are attributing to exports. Of course the assembly worker in Ohio has now lost her job, but apparently the Democratic governors don’t know about him. This lost job would be picked up if we looked at net exports, since we would subtract the full value of the car when it was imported back from Mexico. 

If the governors had done their arithmetic right, instead of boasting about the $760 billion increase in exports, they would have been complaining about the $140 billion decline in net exports, since imports rose by $890 billion between 2009 and 2014. This means that trade was a drag on growth in the recovery, costing the country jobs and putting downward pressure on wages.

It is extraordinary when people who have held important public positions (one of the signers is former Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius) show themselves to be completely ignorant on such a fundamental policy issue. Politico should have called its readers’ attention to these former governors misunderstanding of the way in which trade affects the economy, jobs, and wages.

The Washington Post has long been completely gung ho for trade deals. Whether this stems from some sort of religious fervor or a desire to help wealthy friends and advertisers is not clear. What is clear is that the paper routinely departs from reality in pushing their trade agenda.

It did this most famously back in 2007 when a lead editorial proclaiming the virtues of NAFTA asserted that Mexico’s GDP had quadrupled in the prior 20 years. According to the I.M.F., Mexico’s growth was actually just 83 percent over this period.

In keeping with this pattern of cheerleading of trade deals, it ran an article on President Obama’s “evolution” on trade that treated his support of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) as an intellectual journey. It never once suggested that he might be supporting the deal out of a desire to appease powerful business interests. (The piece does note the political pressures to oppose the deal from unions and others who have been harmed by trade.)

Whatever President Obama’s personal views on trade, as everyone in Washington knows, presidents are constrained by political forces. (Why can’t we have a big stimulus that would restore full employment?) Politicians don’t get elected to the presidency or other offices based on their political philosophy; they get elected as a result of gaining the support of powerful interest groups.

There are many powerful business groups that have been directly involved in negotiated the TPP. They are writing rules protecting investment from regulations of different types, ensuring market access for our banks, telecommunications companies and other industries, and increasing the length and strength of patent and copyright protection. (The latter changes are forms of protectionism, which is why it is wrong for this article to describe the TPP as a “free trade” pact.)

It is incredibly irresponsible to not mention the pressure from these business groups to complete the TPP. This pressure will almost certainly have more impact on the Obama administration’s trade policy and the votes of Democrats in Congress than President Obama’s political philosophy.

The Washington Post has long been completely gung ho for trade deals. Whether this stems from some sort of religious fervor or a desire to help wealthy friends and advertisers is not clear. What is clear is that the paper routinely departs from reality in pushing their trade agenda.

It did this most famously back in 2007 when a lead editorial proclaiming the virtues of NAFTA asserted that Mexico’s GDP had quadrupled in the prior 20 years. According to the I.M.F., Mexico’s growth was actually just 83 percent over this period.

In keeping with this pattern of cheerleading of trade deals, it ran an article on President Obama’s “evolution” on trade that treated his support of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) as an intellectual journey. It never once suggested that he might be supporting the deal out of a desire to appease powerful business interests. (The piece does note the political pressures to oppose the deal from unions and others who have been harmed by trade.)

Whatever President Obama’s personal views on trade, as everyone in Washington knows, presidents are constrained by political forces. (Why can’t we have a big stimulus that would restore full employment?) Politicians don’t get elected to the presidency or other offices based on their political philosophy; they get elected as a result of gaining the support of powerful interest groups.

There are many powerful business groups that have been directly involved in negotiated the TPP. They are writing rules protecting investment from regulations of different types, ensuring market access for our banks, telecommunications companies and other industries, and increasing the length and strength of patent and copyright protection. (The latter changes are forms of protectionism, which is why it is wrong for this article to describe the TPP as a “free trade” pact.)

It is incredibly irresponsible to not mention the pressure from these business groups to complete the TPP. This pressure will almost certainly have more impact on the Obama administration’s trade policy and the votes of Democrats in Congress than President Obama’s political philosophy.

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