The NYT described Germany’s insistence that Greece adhere to an austerity plan as being derived from a desire to protect taxpayers. It’s not clear that this is the case. Most of the debt is owed to official lenders who have no need to make demands on Germany’s taxpayers to get funding. (The European Central Bank prints its money.)
Furthermore, more rapid growth in the euro zone will both allow Greece to repay a larger portion of its debt and also improve Germany’s budget situation as well. For this reason, it is hard to see how German taxpayers will derive any benefit from austerity in Greece.
The NYT described Germany’s insistence that Greece adhere to an austerity plan as being derived from a desire to protect taxpayers. It’s not clear that this is the case. Most of the debt is owed to official lenders who have no need to make demands on Germany’s taxpayers to get funding. (The European Central Bank prints its money.)
Furthermore, more rapid growth in the euro zone will both allow Greece to repay a larger portion of its debt and also improve Germany’s budget situation as well. For this reason, it is hard to see how German taxpayers will derive any benefit from austerity in Greece.
Read More Leer más Join the discussion Participa en la discusión
A NYT piece on the ongoing legal battle between hedge funds that own a portion of Argentina’s debt and the Argentine government likely misled many readers. It referred to the hedge funds as “holdouts,” saying that they had refused to accept the terms offered by Argentina to bondholders at the time the country defaulted in 2001.
In fact, these funds did not hold Argentine debt at the time of the default. They bought the debt up after the default at a small fraction of its face value. Their hope was that they could use their political connections and their legal expertise to force the Argentine government to pay substantially more on its debt than it offered to other creditors.
A NYT piece on the ongoing legal battle between hedge funds that own a portion of Argentina’s debt and the Argentine government likely misled many readers. It referred to the hedge funds as “holdouts,” saying that they had refused to accept the terms offered by Argentina to bondholders at the time the country defaulted in 2001.
In fact, these funds did not hold Argentine debt at the time of the default. They bought the debt up after the default at a small fraction of its face value. Their hope was that they could use their political connections and their legal expertise to force the Argentine government to pay substantially more on its debt than it offered to other creditors.
Read More Leer más Join the discussion Participa en la discusión
That is the only possible explanation for the appearance of a column on Greece’s economy by venture capitalist Aristos Doxiadis. The column’s central premise is that Greece’s severe downturn cannot be explained by its macroeconomic policies. It claims that other countries had similar austerity but had no comparable decline in output. It instead blames Greece’s problems on structural problems that have blocked the growth of exports. Both claims are untrue.
Doxiadis told readers:
“Greece has fared much worse than other eurozone countries that faced a sudden drop in foreign financing, and then enacted similar austerity programs. It lost 26 percent of its G.D.P. from the pre-crisis peak, while Portugal, Ireland and Spain lost no more than 7 percent each. Much of this difference is due to foreign trade.
“In all four countries, when capital from abroad stopped flowing in, increasing exports became an urgent goal. The other three countries achieved this quickly. Greece did not. If it had boosted exports, its recession would have been much shallower; by one estimate, a 25 percent increase in exports could have limited the drop of gross domestic product to just 3 percent.”
The claim that the other three countries had similar austerity programs is wrong. According to the I.M.F. the decline in the structural deficit between 2007 and 2014 was 6.0 percentage points of GDP in Ireland, 1.8 percentage point of GDP in Portugal, and -4.1 percentage points of GDP in Spain (the structural deficit grew larger over this period). By comparison the structural deficit in Greece was cut by 12.5 percentage points of GDP over this period, more than twice as large as the deficit reduction in Ireland, the most austere of the other three countries.
The assertion about Greece being the worst export performer of the group is also at odds with the data. According to the OECD, Greece had the largest increase in goods exports (sorry, couldn’t find service data) from 2007 to 2014. Measured in dollar terms, Spain’s goods exports increased by 27.5 percent over this period. Portugal’s exports increased by 21.9 percent while Ireland’s exports fell by 3.1 percent. By comparison, the OECD reports that Greece’s exports rose by 35.6 percent, far more than the 25 percent increase that Doxiadis held out as a target (he doesn’t indicate his time frame).
This matters because Doxiadis’ whole argument is that Greece’s problems cannot be explained by austerity but rather are due to anti-business regulations and attitudes. It may well be the case that regulations and attitudes are impeding growth in Greece, but contrary to Doxiadis’ claim, its downturn is well explained by its austerity, which was much more severe than in the other three countries.
The NYT should have insisted that the column get the basic facts right.
Correction:
Mr. Doxiadis referred me to data on total Greek exports, which were markedly worse than goods exports alone. Apparently Greece’s service exports fared far worse since 2007 than its goods exports.
That is the only possible explanation for the appearance of a column on Greece’s economy by venture capitalist Aristos Doxiadis. The column’s central premise is that Greece’s severe downturn cannot be explained by its macroeconomic policies. It claims that other countries had similar austerity but had no comparable decline in output. It instead blames Greece’s problems on structural problems that have blocked the growth of exports. Both claims are untrue.
Doxiadis told readers:
“Greece has fared much worse than other eurozone countries that faced a sudden drop in foreign financing, and then enacted similar austerity programs. It lost 26 percent of its G.D.P. from the pre-crisis peak, while Portugal, Ireland and Spain lost no more than 7 percent each. Much of this difference is due to foreign trade.
“In all four countries, when capital from abroad stopped flowing in, increasing exports became an urgent goal. The other three countries achieved this quickly. Greece did not. If it had boosted exports, its recession would have been much shallower; by one estimate, a 25 percent increase in exports could have limited the drop of gross domestic product to just 3 percent.”
The claim that the other three countries had similar austerity programs is wrong. According to the I.M.F. the decline in the structural deficit between 2007 and 2014 was 6.0 percentage points of GDP in Ireland, 1.8 percentage point of GDP in Portugal, and -4.1 percentage points of GDP in Spain (the structural deficit grew larger over this period). By comparison the structural deficit in Greece was cut by 12.5 percentage points of GDP over this period, more than twice as large as the deficit reduction in Ireland, the most austere of the other three countries.
The assertion about Greece being the worst export performer of the group is also at odds with the data. According to the OECD, Greece had the largest increase in goods exports (sorry, couldn’t find service data) from 2007 to 2014. Measured in dollar terms, Spain’s goods exports increased by 27.5 percent over this period. Portugal’s exports increased by 21.9 percent while Ireland’s exports fell by 3.1 percent. By comparison, the OECD reports that Greece’s exports rose by 35.6 percent, far more than the 25 percent increase that Doxiadis held out as a target (he doesn’t indicate his time frame).
This matters because Doxiadis’ whole argument is that Greece’s problems cannot be explained by austerity but rather are due to anti-business regulations and attitudes. It may well be the case that regulations and attitudes are impeding growth in Greece, but contrary to Doxiadis’ claim, its downturn is well explained by its austerity, which was much more severe than in the other three countries.
The NYT should have insisted that the column get the basic facts right.
Correction:
Mr. Doxiadis referred me to data on total Greek exports, which were markedly worse than goods exports alone. Apparently Greece’s service exports fared far worse since 2007 than its goods exports.
Read More Leer más Join the discussion Participa en la discusión
The Post had an interesting piece on the debate within the Republican party over economic policy. At one point the piece notes the stagnation in middle class incomes and then tells readers:
“There is a growing sense among many conservative economists that faster growth by itself will not suffice to lift those incomes at the rate middle-class workers came to expect a generation ago .”
This comment may mislead readers into believing that conservative policies of tax cuts and deregulation have been associated with faster growth. They haven’t.
The table below shows the average growth rate under the last six presidents (measured as first quarter of their term to first quarter of the next adminstration.)
Carter — 3.4%
Reagan — 3.4%
Bush I — 2.0%
Clinton –3.7%
Bush II — 1.6%
Obama — 2.2%
This record shows that tax cutting Republicans have done worse in promoting growth during their administrations than tax and spend Democrats. While Republican policies may not have been successful in producing gains for the middle class, they have also not done very well in promoting growth.
The Post had an interesting piece on the debate within the Republican party over economic policy. At one point the piece notes the stagnation in middle class incomes and then tells readers:
“There is a growing sense among many conservative economists that faster growth by itself will not suffice to lift those incomes at the rate middle-class workers came to expect a generation ago .”
This comment may mislead readers into believing that conservative policies of tax cuts and deregulation have been associated with faster growth. They haven’t.
The table below shows the average growth rate under the last six presidents (measured as first quarter of their term to first quarter of the next adminstration.)
Carter — 3.4%
Reagan — 3.4%
Bush I — 2.0%
Clinton –3.7%
Bush II — 1.6%
Obama — 2.2%
This record shows that tax cutting Republicans have done worse in promoting growth during their administrations than tax and spend Democrats. While Republican policies may not have been successful in producing gains for the middle class, they have also not done very well in promoting growth.
Read More Leer más Join the discussion Participa en la discusión
Read More Leer más Join the discussion Participa en la discusión
The NYT won’t name names, but obviously these people don’t know much economics. In a generally useful article about differences in regulatory policy between the European Union and the United States the NYT told readers:
“The talks [on the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Pact] are considered more of a priority for Europe, which is mired in deflation and high unemployment, than the United States, where the economy is recovering.”
An analysis by the Centre for Economic Policy Research in the U.K. (no connection to Washington CEPR) found that the pact would increase the EU’s GDP by 0.5 percent after its full effects are felt more than a decade after it is implemented. This translates into a boost to EU growth of less than 0.05 percentage points annually.
This is not much of a cure for stagnation. Even if the number were doubled its impact on growth would be too small for people to notice in their everyday lives. Furthermore, this calculation does not take account of any negative impact on growth that could result from higher prices for drugs and other products due to the stronger patent and copyright protections that will almost certainly be part of any deal. It also doesn’t include losses that may be suffered if regulatory changes damage the environment or public health.
The NYT won’t name names, but obviously these people don’t know much economics. In a generally useful article about differences in regulatory policy between the European Union and the United States the NYT told readers:
“The talks [on the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Pact] are considered more of a priority for Europe, which is mired in deflation and high unemployment, than the United States, where the economy is recovering.”
An analysis by the Centre for Economic Policy Research in the U.K. (no connection to Washington CEPR) found that the pact would increase the EU’s GDP by 0.5 percent after its full effects are felt more than a decade after it is implemented. This translates into a boost to EU growth of less than 0.05 percentage points annually.
This is not much of a cure for stagnation. Even if the number were doubled its impact on growth would be too small for people to notice in their everyday lives. Furthermore, this calculation does not take account of any negative impact on growth that could result from higher prices for drugs and other products due to the stronger patent and copyright protections that will almost certainly be part of any deal. It also doesn’t include losses that may be suffered if regulatory changes damage the environment or public health.
Read More Leer más Join the discussion Participa en la discusión
It’s always exciting to read an interesting new idea in the NYT opinion section. It’s less exciting to read an idea that is not new, but presented as such. Hence my lack of joy when reading Ezekiel Emanuel’s proposal for a prize fund for the development of new antibiotics.
Emanuel wants the government to put up a $2 billion prize for the first five companies that get regulatory approval for a new antibiotic. He writes his piece as though a prize fund for developing drugs is a new idea. It isn’t. The idea of prize funds for developing drugs goes back close to two decades (possibly longer), and has had many prominent proponents, most notably Joe Stiglitz, the Nobel prize winning economist.
Emanuel does have an original twist on his proposal. Stiglitz and other proponents of prize funds saw them as an alternative to patents. The idea was that the company got paid for their research when they got the prize. There was no reason to pay them a second time by giving them a monopoly over the sale of the drug.
In fact, one of the main points of the prize was to allow drugs to be sold at their free market price. This would both ensure that they were affordable (drugs are almost always cheap to produce) and eliminate the drug companies’ incentive to lie about the safety and effectiveness of their drugs.
Emanuel does depart from earlier proponents of prize funds in proposing that drug companies be allowed to have a patent monopoly even after having been awarded with a prize. This leaves in place the potential problems of affordability and perverse incentives that earlier proponents of prize funds had sought to address.
It’s always exciting to read an interesting new idea in the NYT opinion section. It’s less exciting to read an idea that is not new, but presented as such. Hence my lack of joy when reading Ezekiel Emanuel’s proposal for a prize fund for the development of new antibiotics.
Emanuel wants the government to put up a $2 billion prize for the first five companies that get regulatory approval for a new antibiotic. He writes his piece as though a prize fund for developing drugs is a new idea. It isn’t. The idea of prize funds for developing drugs goes back close to two decades (possibly longer), and has had many prominent proponents, most notably Joe Stiglitz, the Nobel prize winning economist.
Emanuel does have an original twist on his proposal. Stiglitz and other proponents of prize funds saw them as an alternative to patents. The idea was that the company got paid for their research when they got the prize. There was no reason to pay them a second time by giving them a monopoly over the sale of the drug.
In fact, one of the main points of the prize was to allow drugs to be sold at their free market price. This would both ensure that they were affordable (drugs are almost always cheap to produce) and eliminate the drug companies’ incentive to lie about the safety and effectiveness of their drugs.
Emanuel does depart from earlier proponents of prize funds in proposing that drug companies be allowed to have a patent monopoly even after having been awarded with a prize. This leaves in place the potential problems of affordability and perverse incentives that earlier proponents of prize funds had sought to address.
Read More Leer más Join the discussion Participa en la discusión
Read More Leer más Join the discussion Participa en la discusión
Read More Leer más Join the discussion Participa en la discusión
The myth of the “young invincibles” has come back to life in the editorials of the Washington Post. Folks may recall that this was the story where Obamacare would live or die depending on whether young healthy people signed up for the program. The small grain of truth to the story is that the premium for young people was slightly higher than an actuarially fair premium while the premium for those in the oldest Obamacare age band (ages 55-64) was slightly lower. This means that as a group, the young provide a modest subsidy to the old.
However the differences in costs within each age band swamp the differences across age bands. There are millions of people in the oldest age band who have little or no medical expenses each year just as there are millions of young people who have no medical expenses. Obamacare needs the former group at least as much as it needs the latter (arguably more, since the older group pays premiums that are three times as high).
The Kaiser Family Foundation did the calculations to show this point. Even a large skewing by age will make little difference in the cost of the program. It matters much more if there is a skewing on health status.
Anyhow, perhaps this study will find its way over the WaPo editorial board at some point.
The myth of the “young invincibles” has come back to life in the editorials of the Washington Post. Folks may recall that this was the story where Obamacare would live or die depending on whether young healthy people signed up for the program. The small grain of truth to the story is that the premium for young people was slightly higher than an actuarially fair premium while the premium for those in the oldest Obamacare age band (ages 55-64) was slightly lower. This means that as a group, the young provide a modest subsidy to the old.
However the differences in costs within each age band swamp the differences across age bands. There are millions of people in the oldest age band who have little or no medical expenses each year just as there are millions of young people who have no medical expenses. Obamacare needs the former group at least as much as it needs the latter (arguably more, since the older group pays premiums that are three times as high).
The Kaiser Family Foundation did the calculations to show this point. Even a large skewing by age will make little difference in the cost of the program. It matters much more if there is a skewing on health status.
Anyhow, perhaps this study will find its way over the WaPo editorial board at some point.
Read More Leer más Join the discussion Participa en la discusión
