Beat the Press

Beat the press por Dean Baker

Beat the Press is Dean Baker's commentary on economic reporting. He is a Senior Economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR). To never miss a post, subscribe to a weekly email roundup of Beat the Press. Please also consider supporting the blog on Patreon.

The May jobs report should have made inflation hawks very happy. It shows moderating wage growth. This is definitely not a wage-price spiral story.
The May jobs report should have made inflation hawks very happy. It shows moderating wage growth. This is definitely not a wage-price spiral story.
The reported decline in the saving rate is deceptive. It is more likely that people have made large gains in the stock market and are cashing out some of these gains and paying capital gains taxes on them.
The reported decline in the saving rate is deceptive. It is more likely that people have made large gains in the stock market and are cashing out some of these gains and paying capital gains taxes on them.
Remote work is now a fact of life. If the office space is converted to residential space, it will put downward pressure on rents more generally. This is bad news for landlords, but it will mean more money for renters.
Remote work is now a fact of life. If the office space is converted to residential space, it will put downward pressure on rents more generally. This is bad news for landlords, but it will mean more money for renters.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) sided clearly with those arguing the case for inflation being temporary.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) sided clearly with those arguing the case for inflation being temporary.

The New York Times ran a piece discussing why innovations in cloud computing and artificial technology have not led to more rapid increases in productivity. It raises a number of possibilities, but leaves out an obvious one, increasing waste associated with rent-seeking. We clearly see an increase in waste associated with rent-seeking, the only question is whether it is large enough to have a notable effect on productivity growth.

The piece actually touches on, without commenting on it, one of the major sources of waste. It discusses the practices of a major health insurer.

Health insurance does not directly contribute to GDP. Health care (actually health) is what we care about. Health insurers determines who has access to health care. In principle we want as few people employed in the health insurance industry as possible, we want people to be able to get health care, not to have insurers block their path.

However, we have over 900,000 people employed in health and life insurance companies. Much of what they do is made profitable by the fact that patent monopolies make many drugs and medical equipment expensive. In the absence of these monopolies, no insurer would look to block patients from getting the drugs or medical care recommended by their physician.

There are similar stories in many other sectors. The financial industry employs hundreds of thousands of people shuffling assets in ways that contribute nothing to GDP. The same is true with the lawyers and accountants devoting their efforts to help rich people and corporations avoid paying taxes.

Eliminating, or at least reducing, this waste would be a great way to increase productivity. Unfortunately, the people get rich and richer off this waste prevent it from being addressed politically, or even discussed in the New York Times.

The New York Times ran a piece discussing why innovations in cloud computing and artificial technology have not led to more rapid increases in productivity. It raises a number of possibilities, but leaves out an obvious one, increasing waste associated with rent-seeking. We clearly see an increase in waste associated with rent-seeking, the only question is whether it is large enough to have a notable effect on productivity growth.

The piece actually touches on, without commenting on it, one of the major sources of waste. It discusses the practices of a major health insurer.

Health insurance does not directly contribute to GDP. Health care (actually health) is what we care about. Health insurers determines who has access to health care. In principle we want as few people employed in the health insurance industry as possible, we want people to be able to get health care, not to have insurers block their path.

However, we have over 900,000 people employed in health and life insurance companies. Much of what they do is made profitable by the fact that patent monopolies make many drugs and medical equipment expensive. In the absence of these monopolies, no insurer would look to block patients from getting the drugs or medical care recommended by their physician.

There are similar stories in many other sectors. The financial industry employs hundreds of thousands of people shuffling assets in ways that contribute nothing to GDP. The same is true with the lawyers and accountants devoting their efforts to help rich people and corporations avoid paying taxes.

Eliminating, or at least reducing, this waste would be a great way to increase productivity. Unfortunately, the people get rich and richer off this waste prevent it from being addressed politically, or even discussed in the New York Times.

Rather than seeing a story of spiraling inflation, actors in financial markets seem to be expecting that the inflation rate will quickly fall back to more moderate levels. That is worth noting.
Rather than seeing a story of spiraling inflation, actors in financial markets seem to be expecting that the inflation rate will quickly fall back to more moderate levels. That is worth noting.

Taking May Off

I will be vacationing for the month, so it is unlikely that I will post anything until the end of the month. See you then.
I will be vacationing for the month, so it is unlikely that I will post anything until the end of the month. See you then.
Rather than being a bad report with a drop in GDP, this report is overwhelming good news. This rise in inventories is exactly what we want to see if inflation is to be slowed.
Rather than being a bad report with a drop in GDP, this report is overwhelming good news. This rise in inventories is exactly what we want to see if inflation is to be slowed.
What passes for free trade is a policy of removing barriers to allow low cost manufactured goods to enter the United States without restrictions. This puts downward pressure on the pay of manufacturing workers.
What passes for free trade is a policy of removing barriers to allow low cost manufactured goods to enter the United States without restrictions. This puts downward pressure on the pay of manufacturing workers.
If there is a president to blame for high oil prices it would be Donald Trump. He actually boasted about arranging for OPEC to reduce its production of oil during the pandemic.
If there is a president to blame for high oil prices it would be Donald Trump. He actually boasted about arranging for OPEC to reduce its production of oil during the pandemic.

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