The Washington Post had a front page column that waxed philosophically on the meaning of the debt downgrade by S&P. It concluded by telling readers:
“The U.S. economy is still nearly three times the size of China’s.”
According to the IMF’s projections, the United States economy is currently less than 40 percent larger than China’s on a purchasing power parity basis. The IMF projects that China will surpass the United States as the world’s largest economy by the end of the term of the president elected next year.
The Washington Post had a front page column that waxed philosophically on the meaning of the debt downgrade by S&P. It concluded by telling readers:
“The U.S. economy is still nearly three times the size of China’s.”
According to the IMF’s projections, the United States economy is currently less than 40 percent larger than China’s on a purchasing power parity basis. The IMF projects that China will surpass the United States as the world’s largest economy by the end of the term of the president elected next year.
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A Huffington Post piece hugely overstated the size of the stock wealth effect. It told readers that:
“According to a research note from J.P. Morgan Chase earlier this year, every 100-point drop in the S&P 500 index translated to a $1 trillion loss in household wealth, and a 1.5 percent drop in consumption.”
While this may accurately represent the research note (no link is provided), this is far out of line with the findings of a large literature on the stock wealth effect. With total consumption at more than $10 trillion, a 1.5 percent decline implies a drop of $150 billion. This would imply a stock wealth effect of 15 percent. Most of the literature has found a stock wealth effect in the range of 3-4 percent, usually with considerable lags.
A Huffington Post piece hugely overstated the size of the stock wealth effect. It told readers that:
“According to a research note from J.P. Morgan Chase earlier this year, every 100-point drop in the S&P 500 index translated to a $1 trillion loss in household wealth, and a 1.5 percent drop in consumption.”
While this may accurately represent the research note (no link is provided), this is far out of line with the findings of a large literature on the stock wealth effect. With total consumption at more than $10 trillion, a 1.5 percent decline implies a drop of $150 billion. This would imply a stock wealth effect of 15 percent. Most of the literature has found a stock wealth effect in the range of 3-4 percent, usually with considerable lags.
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That must have been what the editors at Reuters asked their reporter in Chile. How else could one explain the quote from the head of research at a Santiago brokerage house at the end of a short story on student protests. I guess no story is complete without presenting the view of the financial sector on the topic.
That must have been what the editors at Reuters asked their reporter in Chile. How else could one explain the quote from the head of research at a Santiago brokerage house at the end of a short story on student protests. I guess no story is complete without presenting the view of the financial sector on the topic.
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Wall Street investment banker Peter Peterson has pledged $1 billion to the effort to cut Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. Other Wall Street types are doing their part, as is National Public Radio.
They are doing a full court press now — things are really terrible, if you don’t give up your Social Security and Medicare, then the economy might collapse. (Oh yeah, the economy already did collapse because none of these people were troubled by the $8 trillion housing bubble, but don’t think about that.) Standard and Poor’s might have to downgrade the U.S. again, even if they can’t get their arithmetic straight. (Math is hard.)
NPR did its part yesterday with a piece that told us that the debt is not just that scary $14 trillion number that we all hear, it’s actually — stand back boys and girls — $211 trillion!!!!!!
Are you impressed? You should be. This is an extraordinary example of cesspool journalism that would even embarrass Fox News.
The piece gets from the debt number normally reported to $211 trillion by doing some unusual accounting (following a methodology developed by Boston University economist Lawrence Kotlikoff) and also hiding assumptions about exploding private sector health care costs. First, the calculation adds up all the Social Security and Medicare benefits that current workers are projected to receive and then assumes that no new workers pay taxes into the system.
This methodology would imply enormous deficits in these programs even if they were projected to be fully solvent forever, in the sense that current tax payments would always pay current benefits. The reason is that today’s workers will provide a smaller share of the tax revenue as more of them retire. It is unlikely that any of NPR’s listeners would be very scared if it told listeners that Social Security and Medicare would be fully solvent indefinitely, but applying the methodology from this segment it could tell listeners about tens of trillions of dollars in uncounted debt.
The other part of the story is that much of this $211 debt figure is driven by projections of exploding private sector health care costs. Per person Medicare costs are projected to rise far more rapidly than the rate of economic growth in the projections used in this segment (albeit not in the Congressional Budget Office’s baseline or the Medicare Trustees projections) because private sector health care costs are projected to rise far more rapidly than the rate of economic growth. The projections in this segment imply that the cost of providing a Medicare equivalent policy for an 85-year old in 2030 will be $40,000 a year (in 2011 dollars) in 2030. The cost would exceed $100,000 a year (also in 2011 dollars) by 2080.
If private sector health care costs actually follow the path assumed in this segment’s debt calculations it would devastate the economy even if we eliminated public sector health care programs like Medicare and Medicaid. On the other hand, if U.S. health care costs were contained, like those in every other wealthy country, then there would be no long-term deficit problem.
An honest news report would have discussed the projections of explosive private sector health care costs and what they mean for the economy if they prove true. It would not hide these projections in a huge debt figure and tell its listeners that the debt is much bigger than they realize.
The only possible point of a piece like this is to scare people. It provided no information whatsoever about the country’s fiscal situation to NPR’s listeners.
Wall Street investment banker Peter Peterson has pledged $1 billion to the effort to cut Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. Other Wall Street types are doing their part, as is National Public Radio.
They are doing a full court press now — things are really terrible, if you don’t give up your Social Security and Medicare, then the economy might collapse. (Oh yeah, the economy already did collapse because none of these people were troubled by the $8 trillion housing bubble, but don’t think about that.) Standard and Poor’s might have to downgrade the U.S. again, even if they can’t get their arithmetic straight. (Math is hard.)
NPR did its part yesterday with a piece that told us that the debt is not just that scary $14 trillion number that we all hear, it’s actually — stand back boys and girls — $211 trillion!!!!!!
Are you impressed? You should be. This is an extraordinary example of cesspool journalism that would even embarrass Fox News.
The piece gets from the debt number normally reported to $211 trillion by doing some unusual accounting (following a methodology developed by Boston University economist Lawrence Kotlikoff) and also hiding assumptions about exploding private sector health care costs. First, the calculation adds up all the Social Security and Medicare benefits that current workers are projected to receive and then assumes that no new workers pay taxes into the system.
This methodology would imply enormous deficits in these programs even if they were projected to be fully solvent forever, in the sense that current tax payments would always pay current benefits. The reason is that today’s workers will provide a smaller share of the tax revenue as more of them retire. It is unlikely that any of NPR’s listeners would be very scared if it told listeners that Social Security and Medicare would be fully solvent indefinitely, but applying the methodology from this segment it could tell listeners about tens of trillions of dollars in uncounted debt.
The other part of the story is that much of this $211 debt figure is driven by projections of exploding private sector health care costs. Per person Medicare costs are projected to rise far more rapidly than the rate of economic growth in the projections used in this segment (albeit not in the Congressional Budget Office’s baseline or the Medicare Trustees projections) because private sector health care costs are projected to rise far more rapidly than the rate of economic growth. The projections in this segment imply that the cost of providing a Medicare equivalent policy for an 85-year old in 2030 will be $40,000 a year (in 2011 dollars) in 2030. The cost would exceed $100,000 a year (also in 2011 dollars) by 2080.
If private sector health care costs actually follow the path assumed in this segment’s debt calculations it would devastate the economy even if we eliminated public sector health care programs like Medicare and Medicaid. On the other hand, if U.S. health care costs were contained, like those in every other wealthy country, then there would be no long-term deficit problem.
An honest news report would have discussed the projections of explosive private sector health care costs and what they mean for the economy if they prove true. It would not hide these projections in a huge debt figure and tell its listeners that the debt is much bigger than they realize.
The only possible point of a piece like this is to scare people. It provided no information whatsoever about the country’s fiscal situation to NPR’s listeners.
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The NYT ran a piece that told readers that it was necessary for President Obama to cut Social Security and Medicare for the good of the economy. This is not obviously true. There is no shortage of economists who would say that the economy’s main problem is a lack of demand. This can be met by more stimulus, more aggressive action from the Fed, or a decline in the value of the dollar.
Remarkably, the NYT did not include the views of any economist who made these points. The only views presented in these articles were of those who wanted to cut Social Security and Medicare. The former is especially peculiar since the latest projections from the Congressional Budget Office projects that the program will be fully solvent until 2038 even with no changes and it could always pay more than 80 percent of scheduled benefits. Also, under the law the program cannot contribute to the deficit since it can only spend money raised through its designated tax.
One of the two experts cited in the piece suggested the need to means-test Social Security. Analysts familiar with the program generally do not support means-testing since it is likely to raise little money unless it is applied to people with very modest incomes.
The NYT ran a piece that told readers that it was necessary for President Obama to cut Social Security and Medicare for the good of the economy. This is not obviously true. There is no shortage of economists who would say that the economy’s main problem is a lack of demand. This can be met by more stimulus, more aggressive action from the Fed, or a decline in the value of the dollar.
Remarkably, the NYT did not include the views of any economist who made these points. The only views presented in these articles were of those who wanted to cut Social Security and Medicare. The former is especially peculiar since the latest projections from the Congressional Budget Office projects that the program will be fully solvent until 2038 even with no changes and it could always pay more than 80 percent of scheduled benefits. Also, under the law the program cannot contribute to the deficit since it can only spend money raised through its designated tax.
One of the two experts cited in the piece suggested the need to means-test Social Security. Analysts familiar with the program generally do not support means-testing since it is likely to raise little money unless it is applied to people with very modest incomes.
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The Washington Post told readers that Senator John Kerry’s appointment to the Supercommittee that is supposed to come up with $2.5 trillion in deficit reduction “could help appease liberals.” Senator Kerry has repeatedly expressed his willingness to cut Social Security and Medicare, despite the fact that retirees and near-retirees saw much of their wealth destroyed with the collapse of the housing bubble.
It is difficult to see why liberals would be appeased this selection, especially since the Republicans selected are likely to be adamantly opposed to any tax increases.
The Washington Post told readers that Senator John Kerry’s appointment to the Supercommittee that is supposed to come up with $2.5 trillion in deficit reduction “could help appease liberals.” Senator Kerry has repeatedly expressed his willingness to cut Social Security and Medicare, despite the fact that retirees and near-retirees saw much of their wealth destroyed with the collapse of the housing bubble.
It is difficult to see why liberals would be appeased this selection, especially since the Republicans selected are likely to be adamantly opposed to any tax increases.
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In the spirit of Thomas Friedman’s column today, we should not have confidence in the quality of the news and opinion writing we see in the NYT until we see the following press release from the New York Times.
“As of this date we have notified Thomas Friedman that the New York Times no longer has a place for his column. While we recognize that Mr. Friedman had a substantial following, his column had simply become too much of an embarrassment for the newspaper and its staff. Column after column would make broad assertions that were almost completely impervious to the facts.
“For example, he recently wrote a piece telling readers that everyone will have to join together to help solve the country’s economic and fiscal problems. This piece completely ignored the massive redistribution from wages to profits over the last three decades and from low wage workers to high workers. This call for togetherness must have been deeply offensive to the hundreds of millions who are suffering because of this upward redistribution of income.
“The prior week he told readers that Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid were unaffordable ‘entitlements’ ignoring the fact that Social Security is actually fully funded for the next quarter century and according to the Congressional Budget Office, more than 80 percent funded for the rest of the century. The projections that show Medicare and Medicaid becoming unaffordable are based on projections of exploding private sector health care costs. A competent columnist would have focused on the need for fixing the U.S. health care system.
“In another column he explained that the Germans were going to bail out the Greeks, but that they would insist that the Greeks work German hours and take German vacations. Apparently Mr. Friedman did not realize that German workers on average work fewer hours than Greek workers and get longer vacations.
“The NYT is a great newspaper. It should not be associated with this sort of sloppiness week after week. For this reason we will be looking for a new columnist to replace Mr. Friedman. In the mean time we will run Tom Toles cartoons in his space.”
In the spirit of Thomas Friedman’s column today, we should not have confidence in the quality of the news and opinion writing we see in the NYT until we see the following press release from the New York Times.
“As of this date we have notified Thomas Friedman that the New York Times no longer has a place for his column. While we recognize that Mr. Friedman had a substantial following, his column had simply become too much of an embarrassment for the newspaper and its staff. Column after column would make broad assertions that were almost completely impervious to the facts.
“For example, he recently wrote a piece telling readers that everyone will have to join together to help solve the country’s economic and fiscal problems. This piece completely ignored the massive redistribution from wages to profits over the last three decades and from low wage workers to high workers. This call for togetherness must have been deeply offensive to the hundreds of millions who are suffering because of this upward redistribution of income.
“The prior week he told readers that Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid were unaffordable ‘entitlements’ ignoring the fact that Social Security is actually fully funded for the next quarter century and according to the Congressional Budget Office, more than 80 percent funded for the rest of the century. The projections that show Medicare and Medicaid becoming unaffordable are based on projections of exploding private sector health care costs. A competent columnist would have focused on the need for fixing the U.S. health care system.
“In another column he explained that the Germans were going to bail out the Greeks, but that they would insist that the Greeks work German hours and take German vacations. Apparently Mr. Friedman did not realize that German workers on average work fewer hours than Greek workers and get longer vacations.
“The NYT is a great newspaper. It should not be associated with this sort of sloppiness week after week. For this reason we will be looking for a new columnist to replace Mr. Friedman. In the mean time we will run Tom Toles cartoons in his space.”
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The NYT got a bit overenthusiastic about the prospects for a double-dip recession. It told readers:
“the most recent government reports of consumer spending and factory orders show that both have been falling.”
This is not quite right. The most recent data on consumer spending showed that it was flat in June. The key category in factory orders is orders for capital goods. This represents investment demand, which reflects firms’ confidence about future business prospects. Excluding aircraft (which are highly volatile) new orders for capital goods rose 1.1 percent in June after rising 1.7 percent in May. (The numbers would be roughly the same if aircraft are included.)
The article also includes a peculiar discussion of the housing market and its impact on the economy. It told readers:
“Some housing experts warn that further declines in home prices could help set off another recession. ‘The wait-and-see attitude begets more bad economic data, and it can become a self-fulfilling prophecy,’ said Andrew D. Goldberg, market strategist for J.P. Morgan Funds, an asset manager.
“The downward cycle that could be at play is known by some economists as a ‘feedback loop’ — when one piece of bad economic data has a way of making everything else worse.”
Actually, we should fully expect a further decline in house prices since house prices are still about 10 percent above their long-term trend level. This decline in house prices will likely be associated with a further rise in the savings rate from its current 5 percent level, back to its pre-bubble post-war average of 8 percent.
The NYT got a bit overenthusiastic about the prospects for a double-dip recession. It told readers:
“the most recent government reports of consumer spending and factory orders show that both have been falling.”
This is not quite right. The most recent data on consumer spending showed that it was flat in June. The key category in factory orders is orders for capital goods. This represents investment demand, which reflects firms’ confidence about future business prospects. Excluding aircraft (which are highly volatile) new orders for capital goods rose 1.1 percent in June after rising 1.7 percent in May. (The numbers would be roughly the same if aircraft are included.)
The article also includes a peculiar discussion of the housing market and its impact on the economy. It told readers:
“Some housing experts warn that further declines in home prices could help set off another recession. ‘The wait-and-see attitude begets more bad economic data, and it can become a self-fulfilling prophecy,’ said Andrew D. Goldberg, market strategist for J.P. Morgan Funds, an asset manager.
“The downward cycle that could be at play is known by some economists as a ‘feedback loop’ — when one piece of bad economic data has a way of making everything else worse.”
Actually, we should fully expect a further decline in house prices since house prices are still about 10 percent above their long-term trend level. This decline in house prices will likely be associated with a further rise in the savings rate from its current 5 percent level, back to its pre-bubble post-war average of 8 percent.
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Steve Inskeep allowed former Wyoming Senator Alan Simpson (who is also the son of a Wyoming senator) to misrepresent the deficit reduction plan that he co-authored with Morgan Stanley director Erskine Bowles. Simpson complained that most of the criticism he got came from people in their 70s, which he said was foolish because his plan would not even hurt people in their 70s.
This is not true. Senator Simpson’s plan calls for changing the indexation formula for Social Security. Under Simpson’s plan benefits would fall by roughly 0.3 percentage points annually compared with the current benefit schedule. After 10 years this would imply a benefit cut of 3 percent, after 20 years the cut would be 6 percent, and after 30 years it would be almost 9 percent. (Simpson’s plan does provide a 5 percent boost to benefits after 20 years of retirement.)
Senator Simpson’s plan would be a much larger hit to the income of seniors than most of the tax increases that were discussed in the debt ceiling debate. He should not have been allowed to so grossly misrepresent his plan to listeners.
Senator Simpson also was allowed to imply that President Obama’s health care plan would be hugely costly, telling listeners that we could not afford it. The Congressional Budget Office’s projections show that the plan would actually reduce the deficit while extending coverage.
Steve Inskeep allowed former Wyoming Senator Alan Simpson (who is also the son of a Wyoming senator) to misrepresent the deficit reduction plan that he co-authored with Morgan Stanley director Erskine Bowles. Simpson complained that most of the criticism he got came from people in their 70s, which he said was foolish because his plan would not even hurt people in their 70s.
This is not true. Senator Simpson’s plan calls for changing the indexation formula for Social Security. Under Simpson’s plan benefits would fall by roughly 0.3 percentage points annually compared with the current benefit schedule. After 10 years this would imply a benefit cut of 3 percent, after 20 years the cut would be 6 percent, and after 30 years it would be almost 9 percent. (Simpson’s plan does provide a 5 percent boost to benefits after 20 years of retirement.)
Senator Simpson’s plan would be a much larger hit to the income of seniors than most of the tax increases that were discussed in the debt ceiling debate. He should not have been allowed to so grossly misrepresent his plan to listeners.
Senator Simpson also was allowed to imply that President Obama’s health care plan would be hugely costly, telling listeners that we could not afford it. The Congressional Budget Office’s projections show that the plan would actually reduce the deficit while extending coverage.
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In an article on the value of the dollar the Washington Post noted that a high dollar makes U.S. goods less competitive in international markets. While this is an improvement over pieces that warn the dollar could plummet if the U.S. doesn’t get its budget deficit down, the article still remains confused on the issue. It later told readers:
“For the better part of the past decade, the dollar has steadily lost value against other international currencies, reflecting both the rapid economic growth of many developing countries and a persistent U.S. pattern of spending more than it takes in.”
Of course the U.S. pattern of spending more than it takes in is due to the fact that the dollar is too high. In a system of floating exchange rates, like the one we have, the price of currencies is supposed to fluctuate to bring trade into balance. This means that the trade deficit is caused by the over-valued dollar and a decline in the dollar is the predictable result.
In an article on the value of the dollar the Washington Post noted that a high dollar makes U.S. goods less competitive in international markets. While this is an improvement over pieces that warn the dollar could plummet if the U.S. doesn’t get its budget deficit down, the article still remains confused on the issue. It later told readers:
“For the better part of the past decade, the dollar has steadily lost value against other international currencies, reflecting both the rapid economic growth of many developing countries and a persistent U.S. pattern of spending more than it takes in.”
Of course the U.S. pattern of spending more than it takes in is due to the fact that the dollar is too high. In a system of floating exchange rates, like the one we have, the price of currencies is supposed to fluctuate to bring trade into balance. This means that the trade deficit is caused by the over-valued dollar and a decline in the dollar is the predictable result.
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