Most people would consider double-digit unemployment a bad thing, but most people don’t run USA Today. In an article on President Obama’s trip to Europe, USA Today talks about the economic disaster that has befallen Ireland as a result of its budget cutting and tells readers:
“Financial experts and credit-ratings agencies say the mess is a warning for Obama and Washington lawmakers: Get your fiscal house in order or risk the same fate.”
Of course getting its fiscal house in order is what led to the double-digit unemployment in Ireland. Ireland actually had low debt and deficits prior to the collapse of its housing bubble.
By the way, the “credit-ratings agencies” referred to in this piece are best known as the people who rated hundreds of billions of dollars of subprime mortgage-backed securities as investment grade. The “financial experts” were people who could not see the largest asset bubble in the history of the world.
There is no evidence that USA Today spoke with anyone for this article who recognized the dangers facing the world economy before its collapse in 2008. Readers should keep that in mind in assessing the argument it presents.
Most people would consider double-digit unemployment a bad thing, but most people don’t run USA Today. In an article on President Obama’s trip to Europe, USA Today talks about the economic disaster that has befallen Ireland as a result of its budget cutting and tells readers:
“Financial experts and credit-ratings agencies say the mess is a warning for Obama and Washington lawmakers: Get your fiscal house in order or risk the same fate.”
Of course getting its fiscal house in order is what led to the double-digit unemployment in Ireland. Ireland actually had low debt and deficits prior to the collapse of its housing bubble.
By the way, the “credit-ratings agencies” referred to in this piece are best known as the people who rated hundreds of billions of dollars of subprime mortgage-backed securities as investment grade. The “financial experts” were people who could not see the largest asset bubble in the history of the world.
There is no evidence that USA Today spoke with anyone for this article who recognized the dangers facing the world economy before its collapse in 2008. Readers should keep that in mind in assessing the argument it presents.
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The NYT noticed that banks have lots of foreclosed properties and that this is depressing house prices. It warns readers that house prices could fall by 5 percent by the end of 2011.
This piece is bizarrely uninformed about the housing market. First, the decline in house prices is not new. Prices have been falling at the rate of at least 1.0 percent a month since the first time buyers tax credit ended last fall. With prices having already dropped by 2 percent through February, we would have to see a sharp slowing in the rate of price decline for the year-end drop to be just 5 percent.
More importantly, this decline is actually entirely consistent with house prices moving back toward their long-term trend in which they have just tracked the overall rate of inflation. If house prices drop by 12 percent over the course of 2011 they will be just back on this trend.
It would have been useful to readers if this article contained the insights of someone who was more familiar with trends in the housing market.
The NYT noticed that banks have lots of foreclosed properties and that this is depressing house prices. It warns readers that house prices could fall by 5 percent by the end of 2011.
This piece is bizarrely uninformed about the housing market. First, the decline in house prices is not new. Prices have been falling at the rate of at least 1.0 percent a month since the first time buyers tax credit ended last fall. With prices having already dropped by 2 percent through February, we would have to see a sharp slowing in the rate of price decline for the year-end drop to be just 5 percent.
More importantly, this decline is actually entirely consistent with house prices moving back toward their long-term trend in which they have just tracked the overall rate of inflation. If house prices drop by 12 percent over the course of 2011 they will be just back on this trend.
It would have been useful to readers if this article contained the insights of someone who was more familiar with trends in the housing market.
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The Washington Post reports that Portugal is changing its rent control laws at the insistence of the European Union and the IMF because they impede the movement of workers looking for new jobs. While there can be cases in which workers will be reluctant to give up a rent-controlled unit in order to get a job in another city where they will have to pay higher rent, homeownership also can pose the same obstacle to moving.
If there is a price to rent (annual) ratio of 15 to 1, and sale costs average 6-7 percent of the house price, then a worker moving to a new city can basically expect to give up a year’s worth of rent to cover the cost of the move.
This article also includes the assertion that employment protection legislation, that prevents employers from firing workers at will, impedes growth. Actually, there has been considerable research on this topic and most of it suggests that these measures have little impact on employment and growth.
The Washington Post reports that Portugal is changing its rent control laws at the insistence of the European Union and the IMF because they impede the movement of workers looking for new jobs. While there can be cases in which workers will be reluctant to give up a rent-controlled unit in order to get a job in another city where they will have to pay higher rent, homeownership also can pose the same obstacle to moving.
If there is a price to rent (annual) ratio of 15 to 1, and sale costs average 6-7 percent of the house price, then a worker moving to a new city can basically expect to give up a year’s worth of rent to cover the cost of the move.
This article also includes the assertion that employment protection legislation, that prevents employers from firing workers at will, impedes growth. Actually, there has been considerable research on this topic and most of it suggests that these measures have little impact on employment and growth.
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Today the good news is that the economy is growing. Let’s get out the champagne!
Of course the economy almost always grows. The question that serious people ask is how fast is the economy growing. The answer is that over the last year the economy has grown by 2.4 percent. This is a hair shy of the 2.5 percent growth rate that the economy needs just to keep even with the growth of the labor force. The drop in the unemployment rate that we have seen from its 10.2 percent high point has been entirely due to people dropping out of the labor force, the employment to population ratio has not risen at all since November of 2009.
It is also worth noting Samuelson’s choice of experts to promote the good news line about the economy. In reference to the housing market he quotes Ben Herzon of Macroeconomic Advisers saying, “There’s a boom out there somewhere, … it’s just a matter of when.” It’s worth noting that Macroeconomic Advisers was completely dismissive of the idea that there was a housing bubble prior to its collapse beginning in 2006.
The article also cites Mark Zandi’s statement that he is optimistic about the economy’s prospects for 2012. It is worth noting that the downturn caught Zandi completely by surprise. He has also been consistently overly optimistic about the strength of the recovery.
Today the good news is that the economy is growing. Let’s get out the champagne!
Of course the economy almost always grows. The question that serious people ask is how fast is the economy growing. The answer is that over the last year the economy has grown by 2.4 percent. This is a hair shy of the 2.5 percent growth rate that the economy needs just to keep even with the growth of the labor force. The drop in the unemployment rate that we have seen from its 10.2 percent high point has been entirely due to people dropping out of the labor force, the employment to population ratio has not risen at all since November of 2009.
It is also worth noting Samuelson’s choice of experts to promote the good news line about the economy. In reference to the housing market he quotes Ben Herzon of Macroeconomic Advisers saying, “There’s a boom out there somewhere, … it’s just a matter of when.” It’s worth noting that Macroeconomic Advisers was completely dismissive of the idea that there was a housing bubble prior to its collapse beginning in 2006.
The article also cites Mark Zandi’s statement that he is optimistic about the economy’s prospects for 2012. It is worth noting that the downturn caught Zandi completely by surprise. He has also been consistently overly optimistic about the strength of the recovery.
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In an otherwise excellent column calling attention to the need for a lower dollar, Christina Romer, formerly President Obama’s chief economist, implies that the run-up in the dollar in the late 90s was due to “brilliant American innovation.” Actually the rise in the dollar was fueled initially by the need for the East Asian countries to accumulate dollars as a result of the conditions imposed by the IMF bailout from the region’s financial crisis.
The inflow of money from abroad helped to fuel the stock bubble but it had little to do with productive investment. While the investment share of GDP was somewhat higher than in the late 80s, it was far below the investment share of the 70s.
Furthermore, the share of the investment components taken together, investment plus net exports, was only slightly higher in the 90s than it had been in the 80s and much lower than in the 70s. (The investment share subtracts out motor vehicle leasing [underlying detail Table 2, line 120]. There was a surge in car leasing in the 90s as a substitute for car purchases. A leased car would count as investment in GDP accounts, while a purchased car would be included in consumption.)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
In an otherwise excellent column calling attention to the need for a lower dollar, Christina Romer, formerly President Obama’s chief economist, implies that the run-up in the dollar in the late 90s was due to “brilliant American innovation.” Actually the rise in the dollar was fueled initially by the need for the East Asian countries to accumulate dollars as a result of the conditions imposed by the IMF bailout from the region’s financial crisis.
The inflow of money from abroad helped to fuel the stock bubble but it had little to do with productive investment. While the investment share of GDP was somewhat higher than in the late 80s, it was far below the investment share of the 70s.
Furthermore, the share of the investment components taken together, investment plus net exports, was only slightly higher in the 90s than it had been in the 80s and much lower than in the 70s. (The investment share subtracts out motor vehicle leasing [underlying detail Table 2, line 120]. There was a surge in car leasing in the 90s as a substitute for car purchases. A leased car would count as investment in GDP accounts, while a purchased car would be included in consumption.)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Fortunately, his job as a columnist for the Post doesn’t require that he have any knowledge of such things. His article today touts California’s fiscal hardships. It includes no mention whatsoever of the housing bubble.
California was at the epicenter of the housing bubble with prices in some areas more than tripling in the decade from 1996 to 2006. This led to a massive construction boom as well as a consumption boom based on bubble-generated home equity.
Now that prices have returned to pre-bubble levels in many of the former bubble markets, construction has fallen through the floor and consumption has plunged as underwater homeowners struggle to keep current on their mortgages. This collapse is the main cause of the state’s economic downturn as well as its fiscal crisis.
While Mr. Will looks forward to the prospect of the state’s public employees being forced to take large pay cuts, in most sectors public sector wages are not substantially higher than for their private sector counterparts with similar education and experience. Basic economics dictates that if wages are lowered by much below their private sector level then the state will be unable to attract qualified people to work as teachers, nurses and other positions in the public sector.
Fortunately, his job as a columnist for the Post doesn’t require that he have any knowledge of such things. His article today touts California’s fiscal hardships. It includes no mention whatsoever of the housing bubble.
California was at the epicenter of the housing bubble with prices in some areas more than tripling in the decade from 1996 to 2006. This led to a massive construction boom as well as a consumption boom based on bubble-generated home equity.
Now that prices have returned to pre-bubble levels in many of the former bubble markets, construction has fallen through the floor and consumption has plunged as underwater homeowners struggle to keep current on their mortgages. This collapse is the main cause of the state’s economic downturn as well as its fiscal crisis.
While Mr. Will looks forward to the prospect of the state’s public employees being forced to take large pay cuts, in most sectors public sector wages are not substantially higher than for their private sector counterparts with similar education and experience. Basic economics dictates that if wages are lowered by much below their private sector level then the state will be unable to attract qualified people to work as teachers, nurses and other positions in the public sector.
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The Washington Post Outlook section has a column by former World Bank director Moises Naim calling for change at the IMF in the wake of Dominique Strauss-Kahn’s resignation as a result of sexual assault charges. It is striking that the piece makes no mention of the bloated pensions received by IMF staff.
The IMF’s pension structure allows many of its economists to be able to draw pensions in excess of $100,000 a year in their early fifties. It is remarkable that no major news outlet has ever mentioned these exorbitant pensions at a time when politicians across the country have been screaming about pensions for public employees that average less than $30,000 a year and generally require workers to wait until their 60s before they start receiving benefits.
The high pensions at the IMF might be seen as especially offensive since the institution has been pushing countries around the world to raise the retirement age for their Social Security systems and public sector employees. The IMF also has little basis for claiming that worsening benefits will prevent it from attracting good employees. Its current staff completely missed the housing bubbles in the United States and elsewhere, the largest asset bubbles in the history of the world, leading to enormous suffering for hundreds of millions of people. It would be difficult to imagine being able to assemble a less competent group of economists than the current crew.
The Washington Post Outlook section has a column by former World Bank director Moises Naim calling for change at the IMF in the wake of Dominique Strauss-Kahn’s resignation as a result of sexual assault charges. It is striking that the piece makes no mention of the bloated pensions received by IMF staff.
The IMF’s pension structure allows many of its economists to be able to draw pensions in excess of $100,000 a year in their early fifties. It is remarkable that no major news outlet has ever mentioned these exorbitant pensions at a time when politicians across the country have been screaming about pensions for public employees that average less than $30,000 a year and generally require workers to wait until their 60s before they start receiving benefits.
The high pensions at the IMF might be seen as especially offensive since the institution has been pushing countries around the world to raise the retirement age for their Social Security systems and public sector employees. The IMF also has little basis for claiming that worsening benefits will prevent it from attracting good employees. Its current staff completely missed the housing bubbles in the United States and elsewhere, the largest asset bubbles in the history of the world, leading to enormous suffering for hundreds of millions of people. It would be difficult to imagine being able to assemble a less competent group of economists than the current crew.
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That’s what readers of its front page piece on austerity in Spain must conclude. The piece asserts that Spain’s government has no choice but to make major cutbacks to the generosity of its welfare state.
This may be true given its situation as member of the euro zone. However, this is an outcome that is being imposed as a result of policy decisions by the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB, which failed to notice the huge housing bubble in Spain and elsewhere, is deliberately imposing a relatively contractionary policy on the euro zone countries. This is leading to higher unemployment in Spain and other euro zone countries.
The higher unemployment and slower growth resulting from the ECB policy puts more fiscal stress on the Spanish government. The restrictive policies of the ECB are the proximate cause of Spain’s fiscal difficulties. The ECB’s role in contributing to Spain’s financial hardship should have been mentioned in the piece.
That’s what readers of its front page piece on austerity in Spain must conclude. The piece asserts that Spain’s government has no choice but to make major cutbacks to the generosity of its welfare state.
This may be true given its situation as member of the euro zone. However, this is an outcome that is being imposed as a result of policy decisions by the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB, which failed to notice the huge housing bubble in Spain and elsewhere, is deliberately imposing a relatively contractionary policy on the euro zone countries. This is leading to higher unemployment in Spain and other euro zone countries.
The higher unemployment and slower growth resulting from the ECB policy puts more fiscal stress on the Spanish government. The restrictive policies of the ECB are the proximate cause of Spain’s fiscal difficulties. The ECB’s role in contributing to Spain’s financial hardship should have been mentioned in the piece.
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The Washington Post had a front page piece reporting on how Senate Democrats find themselves taking a back seat in current political debate in Washington. At one point the article refers to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s plan to bring President Obama’s budget to a vote, adding:
“which both parties lambasted as being far too timid in dealing with the nation’s swelling deficit.”
Of course this assertion is just an invention of the folks at Fox on 15th Street. While there may be some business-associated Democrats who have lambasted President Obama’s budget for being too “timid,” the vast majority of congressional Democrats have made no such criticism. Needless to say, this statement does reflect the Washington Post’s editorial position on the budget.
The Washington Post had a front page piece reporting on how Senate Democrats find themselves taking a back seat in current political debate in Washington. At one point the article refers to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s plan to bring President Obama’s budget to a vote, adding:
“which both parties lambasted as being far too timid in dealing with the nation’s swelling deficit.”
Of course this assertion is just an invention of the folks at Fox on 15th Street. While there may be some business-associated Democrats who have lambasted President Obama’s budget for being too “timid,” the vast majority of congressional Democrats have made no such criticism. Needless to say, this statement does reflect the Washington Post’s editorial position on the budget.
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This point should have been mentioned in a NYT article on the risk of sexual assault/harassment that housekeepers face in hotels. As the article notes, many housekeepers are reluctant to bring such attacks to the attention of their supervisors and/or law enforcement both out of embarrassment, but also out of fear of losing their jobs.
In this particular case, the housekeeper belonged to a union that has provisions in its contract that explicitly require the management to take cases of sexual assault or harassment seriously. This meant the housekeeper knew that she could make a complaint to management and not worry about being ridiculed or putting her job at risk. This fact would have been worth mentioning in the article.
This point should have been mentioned in a NYT article on the risk of sexual assault/harassment that housekeepers face in hotels. As the article notes, many housekeepers are reluctant to bring such attacks to the attention of their supervisors and/or law enforcement both out of embarrassment, but also out of fear of losing their jobs.
In this particular case, the housekeeper belonged to a union that has provisions in its contract that explicitly require the management to take cases of sexual assault or harassment seriously. This meant the housekeeper knew that she could make a complaint to management and not worry about being ridiculed or putting her job at risk. This fact would have been worth mentioning in the article.
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