The Financial Times featured a column from former Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan arguing that the reforms in the Dodd-Frank bill will make financial markets less stable. Just in case you have forgotten, we have 25 million people who are unemployed, under-employed or have given up looking for work altogether because Alan Greenspan did not understand financial markets and the economy. Perhaps the FT will have a column offering advice on disaster management from Michael Brown.
The Financial Times featured a column from former Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan arguing that the reforms in the Dodd-Frank bill will make financial markets less stable. Just in case you have forgotten, we have 25 million people who are unemployed, under-employed or have given up looking for work altogether because Alan Greenspan did not understand financial markets and the economy. Perhaps the FT will have a column offering advice on disaster management from Michael Brown.
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David Leonhardt has a nice column making the point that the Fed faces a lot of pressure to keep inflation under control, but it does not have the same lobby pushing it on unemployment.
David Leonhardt has a nice column making the point that the Fed faces a lot of pressure to keep inflation under control, but it does not have the same lobby pushing it on unemployment.
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The NYT had an interesting article on the downsizing of food products by manufacturers in order to conceal price increases. It is worth noting that these price increases would be picked up by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in constructing the consumer price index (CPI). The BLS price checkers carefully assess the quantities in products and if these change, they adjust the price charged accordingly.
The NYT had an interesting article on the downsizing of food products by manufacturers in order to conceal price increases. It is worth noting that these price increases would be picked up by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in constructing the consumer price index (CPI). The BLS price checkers carefully assess the quantities in products and if these change, they adjust the price charged accordingly.
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USA Today ran a carefully researched article that strongly suggests that much of the rise in school test scores under school chancellor Michelle Rhee was due to teachers’ cheating. Teachers had a substantial incentive to cheat since they would get an $8,000 bonus if their students improved beyond set levels. This is the sort of serious investigative journalism that is rarely seen anymore.
USA Today ran a carefully researched article that strongly suggests that much of the rise in school test scores under school chancellor Michelle Rhee was due to teachers’ cheating. Teachers had a substantial incentive to cheat since they would get an $8,000 bonus if their students improved beyond set levels. This is the sort of serious investigative journalism that is rarely seen anymore.
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The Post made yet another effort to attack public sector employees today in an editorial (this one is on its editorial page) that criticized the rate of return assumptions used by public pension plans. It tells readers that:
“Eighty-eight of the 126 largest public pension plans assume a rate of return exceeding 8 percent a year, according to the Wall Street Journal. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 achieved a compound average annual growth rate of 5.69 percent over the past 20 years.”
Okay, get your calculators out boys and girls. If I look up the value of the S&P 500 for March 1991 I get 375.22. The S&P closed yesterday at 1313.8. This gives a compounded annual rate of return of 6.46 percent.
But wait, we have to share a little secret with the folks who write editorials for the Washington Post: stocks pay dividends. Dividends are typically paid out quarterly and usually average 3-4 percent of the stock price. If we add in dividend yields, then we would get an average return over the last 20 years in the 9-10 percent range that is assumed by pension funds in their analysis.
Of course returns going forward will depend on the current ratio of stock prices to corporate earnings. This is around 15 today (measured against trend earnings) compared to about 20 in 1991, suggesting that the prospects going forward over the next 20 years are likely better than they were back in 1991.
It is especially ironic to see these misplaced warnings about excessive stock return assumptions in the Washington Post. This is a paper that for years featured the columns of James K. Glassman, the co-author of Dow 36,000. At the time, it had no room in the paper for those of us who tried to warn of the risks of the stock bubble.
The Post made yet another effort to attack public sector employees today in an editorial (this one is on its editorial page) that criticized the rate of return assumptions used by public pension plans. It tells readers that:
“Eighty-eight of the 126 largest public pension plans assume a rate of return exceeding 8 percent a year, according to the Wall Street Journal. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 achieved a compound average annual growth rate of 5.69 percent over the past 20 years.”
Okay, get your calculators out boys and girls. If I look up the value of the S&P 500 for March 1991 I get 375.22. The S&P closed yesterday at 1313.8. This gives a compounded annual rate of return of 6.46 percent.
But wait, we have to share a little secret with the folks who write editorials for the Washington Post: stocks pay dividends. Dividends are typically paid out quarterly and usually average 3-4 percent of the stock price. If we add in dividend yields, then we would get an average return over the last 20 years in the 9-10 percent range that is assumed by pension funds in their analysis.
Of course returns going forward will depend on the current ratio of stock prices to corporate earnings. This is around 15 today (measured against trend earnings) compared to about 20 in 1991, suggesting that the prospects going forward over the next 20 years are likely better than they were back in 1991.
It is especially ironic to see these misplaced warnings about excessive stock return assumptions in the Washington Post. This is a paper that for years featured the columns of James K. Glassman, the co-author of Dow 36,000. At the time, it had no room in the paper for those of us who tried to warn of the risks of the stock bubble.
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