The news outlets that insisted Congress approve TARP or the world will end have been anxiously touting the prospect of repayments and possible profits for the taxpayers from one-time basket cases like Citigroup and AIG. It is worth noting that the question of the government showing a profit or loss on its loans to these companies has little to do with whether the bailout was a net benefit to taxpayers.
Suppose the government uncovered a counterfeiting operation. Instead of shutting it down, suppose it allowed the counterfeiters to print $1 trillion in counterfeit money and buy up the stock of legitimate companies. The counterfeiters would then give ten percent of this stock, worth $100 billion, to the government and shut down their counterfeiting operations.
By the TARP accounting logic, the taxpayers made $100 billion on this deal. In reality, the counterfeiters were allowed to lay claim to $900 billion of the country’s wealth based on their counterfeit currency.
The situation with the TARP is similar. Through the TARP and the much larger Fed lending operations, the Wall Street banks were able to borrow money at far below market interest rates. This allowed them to make substantial profits at the peak of the financial crisis. They are now using the profits made with government funds to repay the government with interest. However, the shareholders, creditors, and top executives of these banks are now far richer than they would be if they had not been given access to public money at below market rates.
To imply that this situation has profited the taxpaying public as a whole because the loans have been repaid is extremely misleading, just as it would be inaccurate to imply that the country had benefited by getting a cut of the counterfeiters’ profits.
The news outlets that insisted Congress approve TARP or the world will end have been anxiously touting the prospect of repayments and possible profits for the taxpayers from one-time basket cases like Citigroup and AIG. It is worth noting that the question of the government showing a profit or loss on its loans to these companies has little to do with whether the bailout was a net benefit to taxpayers.
Suppose the government uncovered a counterfeiting operation. Instead of shutting it down, suppose it allowed the counterfeiters to print $1 trillion in counterfeit money and buy up the stock of legitimate companies. The counterfeiters would then give ten percent of this stock, worth $100 billion, to the government and shut down their counterfeiting operations.
By the TARP accounting logic, the taxpayers made $100 billion on this deal. In reality, the counterfeiters were allowed to lay claim to $900 billion of the country’s wealth based on their counterfeit currency.
The situation with the TARP is similar. Through the TARP and the much larger Fed lending operations, the Wall Street banks were able to borrow money at far below market interest rates. This allowed them to make substantial profits at the peak of the financial crisis. They are now using the profits made with government funds to repay the government with interest. However, the shareholders, creditors, and top executives of these banks are now far richer than they would be if they had not been given access to public money at below market rates.
To imply that this situation has profited the taxpaying public as a whole because the loans have been repaid is extremely misleading, just as it would be inaccurate to imply that the country had benefited by getting a cut of the counterfeiters’ profits.
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The NYT reported that the cost of the compromise on extending the Bush tax cuts will be approximately $800 billion over two years. It notes that this amount is similar to the cost of President Obama’s stimulus package.
It is important to realize that most of the money in this package is maintaining tax cuts in place that were scheduled to expire. This will prevent tax increases from having a contractionary impact on the economy, however there is very little, if any, net stimulus in this package compared with current levels of taxation and spending.
The NYT reported that the cost of the compromise on extending the Bush tax cuts will be approximately $800 billion over two years. It notes that this amount is similar to the cost of President Obama’s stimulus package.
It is important to realize that most of the money in this package is maintaining tax cuts in place that were scheduled to expire. This will prevent tax increases from having a contractionary impact on the economy, however there is very little, if any, net stimulus in this package compared with current levels of taxation and spending.
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In a news story the Post told readers:
“The fiscal crisis sweeping Europe, in which Ireland and Greece have already needed bailouts and Portugal, Spain, and Italy could come next, offers the United States a brutal lesson. By the time the bond market turns on a country – when investors demand higher interest rates or refuse to roll over debt at any price – policymakers have no good options left.
“When that day arrives, a government has little choice but to slash budgets or raise taxes if it wants to satisfy financial markets. But those actions make an already miserable economic situation worse and tend to be vastly unpopular, costing politicians their jobs. Just ask the Irish, who are in such a cycle now.”
Actually this is not a story that the United States should ever face — contrary to the Post’s sanctimonious lesson for its readers. Unlike all the countries on its list, the United States has its own currency. This means that, in a worse case scenario, Congress could have the Fed buy government debt. This could create a problem of inflation, but it would not lead to a crisis of type that the article is describing.
The Post’s misrepresentation here would be comparable to telling someone living in a steel high-rise that the fire in the straw house across the street shows what happens when you aren’t careful with matches. While fire can also harm a steel high-rise, the nature of the risk is qualitatively different than the risk faced by someone living in a straw house. It is wrong to imply that the two risks are the same, as the Post asserts in this piece.
In a news story the Post told readers:
“The fiscal crisis sweeping Europe, in which Ireland and Greece have already needed bailouts and Portugal, Spain, and Italy could come next, offers the United States a brutal lesson. By the time the bond market turns on a country – when investors demand higher interest rates or refuse to roll over debt at any price – policymakers have no good options left.
“When that day arrives, a government has little choice but to slash budgets or raise taxes if it wants to satisfy financial markets. But those actions make an already miserable economic situation worse and tend to be vastly unpopular, costing politicians their jobs. Just ask the Irish, who are in such a cycle now.”
Actually this is not a story that the United States should ever face — contrary to the Post’s sanctimonious lesson for its readers. Unlike all the countries on its list, the United States has its own currency. This means that, in a worse case scenario, Congress could have the Fed buy government debt. This could create a problem of inflation, but it would not lead to a crisis of type that the article is describing.
The Post’s misrepresentation here would be comparable to telling someone living in a steel high-rise that the fire in the straw house across the street shows what happens when you aren’t careful with matches. While fire can also harm a steel high-rise, the nature of the risk is qualitatively different than the risk faced by someone living in a straw house. It is wrong to imply that the two risks are the same, as the Post asserts in this piece.
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That is what readers of his column today must conclude. He insists that the United States and European countries can no longer afford their current welfare states because of an aging population.
This might be true if there was no productivity growth. However, unless something incredibly bizarre happens, the economy will continue to see productivity growth in the neighborhood of 2.0 percent annually. This means that in 2045 output per worker would be almost twice as high for each hour of work as it is today. This rise in productivity would allow large increases in both the generosity of the benefits provided for retirees and also the living standard of the working population.
That is what readers of his column today must conclude. He insists that the United States and European countries can no longer afford their current welfare states because of an aging population.
This might be true if there was no productivity growth. However, unless something incredibly bizarre happens, the economy will continue to see productivity growth in the neighborhood of 2.0 percent annually. This means that in 2045 output per worker would be almost twice as high for each hour of work as it is today. This rise in productivity would allow large increases in both the generosity of the benefits provided for retirees and also the living standard of the working population.
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Floyd Norris has a nice piece reporting on the recent patterns in house prices. He notes that the sharpest run-up in prices occurred at the lower end of the market and that these houses have also seen the sharpest price declines and that this process is continuing now.
Floyd Norris has a nice piece reporting on the recent patterns in house prices. He notes that the sharpest run-up in prices occurred at the lower end of the market and that these houses have also seen the sharpest price declines and that this process is continuing now.
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The NYT noted the increase in employment of temporary workers by 45,000 in November. This was by far the most rapid job growth in any sector. In attempting to interpret this rise it is important to keep in mind that temp employment rose by 107,000 last November. It seems as though many stores are opting to fill their seasonal demands for labor with temp employment rather than hiring workers who they may expect to keep on permanently after the holidays, however the pattern is less pronounced this year than last.
The NYT noted the increase in employment of temporary workers by 45,000 in November. This was by far the most rapid job growth in any sector. In attempting to interpret this rise it is important to keep in mind that temp employment rose by 107,000 last November. It seems as though many stores are opting to fill their seasonal demands for labor with temp employment rather than hiring workers who they may expect to keep on permanently after the holidays, however the pattern is less pronounced this year than last.
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It seems that way since the Post used the term 8 times, including in the headline, in an article that reported on the proposed U.S.-Korea trade pact. (The NYT only found the need to use it once in its article.)
We know that newspapers ordinarily like to save space, which makes it hard to understand why they insist on using the term “free-trade” when they discuss trade agreements which increase protection in many areas. Specifically, deals like the U.S.-Korea trade pact currently in the news enhance protection for patents, copyrights, and other forms of intellectual property claims. They also do not free all trade, leaving in place most of the barriers that protect highly paid professionals (e.g. doctors, lawyers, and economists) from their lower paid counterparts in other countries.
For this reason, these trade deals cannot be accurately called “free-trade” pacts. It is true that these deals generally include the term “free-trade” in their name, but that is not a reason for neutral media outlets to adopt this favorable characterization. In the 1980s President Reagan dubbed the controversial MX missile system, the “Peacemaker.” Media outlets did not follow his lead and begin referring to the missile with this term; there is similarly no reason why they should now be referring to trade agreements as “free-trade” agreements, when they clearly are not.
It seems that way since the Post used the term 8 times, including in the headline, in an article that reported on the proposed U.S.-Korea trade pact. (The NYT only found the need to use it once in its article.)
We know that newspapers ordinarily like to save space, which makes it hard to understand why they insist on using the term “free-trade” when they discuss trade agreements which increase protection in many areas. Specifically, deals like the U.S.-Korea trade pact currently in the news enhance protection for patents, copyrights, and other forms of intellectual property claims. They also do not free all trade, leaving in place most of the barriers that protect highly paid professionals (e.g. doctors, lawyers, and economists) from their lower paid counterparts in other countries.
For this reason, these trade deals cannot be accurately called “free-trade” pacts. It is true that these deals generally include the term “free-trade” in their name, but that is not a reason for neutral media outlets to adopt this favorable characterization. In the 1980s President Reagan dubbed the controversial MX missile system, the “Peacemaker.” Media outlets did not follow his lead and begin referring to the missile with this term; there is similarly no reason why they should now be referring to trade agreements as “free-trade” agreements, when they clearly are not.
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The Post continued its editorializing in its news section by gratuitously pointing out in a front page article that negotiations to extend tax cuts and unemployment benefits:
“would add hundreds of billions of dollars to future deficits, even as a bipartisan commission appointed by Obama is trying to build support for a plan to balance the budget.”
If the Post was interested in informing its readers rather than pushing its budget agenda it could have pointed out that deficits during a period of high unemployment need pose no burden to the economy or future taxpayers since the Federal Reserve Board can simply buy and hold this debt. In Japan the central bank holds an amount of debt that is close to the size of its GDP, which would be $15 trillion in the United States.
This can be seen in the difference between the IMF’s estimate of Japan’s gross debt (227.2 percent of GDP) and its net debt (121.7 percent of GDP). In spite of these massive holdings of government debt by the central bank Japan continues to experience deflation instead of inflation.
To some extent the Fed is already following a similar course. As a result of its holdings of government debt and other assets it refunded $77 billion to the Treasury last year, an amount that was more than one-third of the government’s net interest payments. A newspaper that was interested in informing its readers rather than pushing an agenda would have explained that deficits in the current context do not impose a burden rather than gratuitously pointing out that spending and tax cuts add to the deficit.
The Post continued its editorializing in its news section by gratuitously pointing out in a front page article that negotiations to extend tax cuts and unemployment benefits:
“would add hundreds of billions of dollars to future deficits, even as a bipartisan commission appointed by Obama is trying to build support for a plan to balance the budget.”
If the Post was interested in informing its readers rather than pushing its budget agenda it could have pointed out that deficits during a period of high unemployment need pose no burden to the economy or future taxpayers since the Federal Reserve Board can simply buy and hold this debt. In Japan the central bank holds an amount of debt that is close to the size of its GDP, which would be $15 trillion in the United States.
This can be seen in the difference between the IMF’s estimate of Japan’s gross debt (227.2 percent of GDP) and its net debt (121.7 percent of GDP). In spite of these massive holdings of government debt by the central bank Japan continues to experience deflation instead of inflation.
To some extent the Fed is already following a similar course. As a result of its holdings of government debt and other assets it refunded $77 billion to the Treasury last year, an amount that was more than one-third of the government’s net interest payments. A newspaper that was interested in informing its readers rather than pushing an agenda would have explained that deficits in the current context do not impose a burden rather than gratuitously pointing out that spending and tax cuts add to the deficit.
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The Washington Post repeated the story that consumers have been reluctant to spend due to the bad economy. In fact, the savings rate has hovered around 5.0 percent through the last 2 years. This is well below the pre-stock bubble average, which was more than 8.0 percent. This implies that consumers have continued to spend at an unusually rapid clip, albeit not as fast as when their spending was driven by $8 trillion of housing bubble wealth.
The article also implied that house prices are no longer falling. This is not true, the September Case-Shiller 20 City index showed that prices were falling at an 8.5 percent annual rate. This would eliminate more than $1 trillion in housing equity over the course of a year.
The Washington Post repeated the story that consumers have been reluctant to spend due to the bad economy. In fact, the savings rate has hovered around 5.0 percent through the last 2 years. This is well below the pre-stock bubble average, which was more than 8.0 percent. This implies that consumers have continued to spend at an unusually rapid clip, albeit not as fast as when their spending was driven by $8 trillion of housing bubble wealth.
The article also implied that house prices are no longer falling. This is not true, the September Case-Shiller 20 City index showed that prices were falling at an 8.5 percent annual rate. This would eliminate more than $1 trillion in housing equity over the course of a year.
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The NYT concluded an otherwise useful article on the long-term unemployed by suggesting the country may just settle in with an 8-9 percent unemployment, which had become the norm in some European countries. It is important to note that these European countries have far more extensive welfare state supports than the United States. This allows the long-term unemployed to still enjoy a decent standard of living in European countries. This would not be the case in the United States.
The NYT concluded an otherwise useful article on the long-term unemployed by suggesting the country may just settle in with an 8-9 percent unemployment, which had become the norm in some European countries. It is important to note that these European countries have far more extensive welfare state supports than the United States. This allows the long-term unemployed to still enjoy a decent standard of living in European countries. This would not be the case in the United States.
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