This would no doubt be how the Washington Post’s economic reporters would have covered the World Cup final. They would not have bothered to tell readers that Spain in fact did win the World Cup, regardless of what the Netherlands’ fans claim.
This comes up in the context of the impact of the stimulus where the Post treats us to a he said/ she said. The Post has a quote from an economist at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities who says the stimulus was a good idea and helped the economy. It also features a quote from an economist at the CATO Institute who says that it didn’t help the economy and just added to the debt.
Maybe we could check with the ref. The Congressional Budget Office says it increased GDP by between 1.7 percent and 4.5 percent. They also calculate that it reduced the unemployment rate by between 0.7 and 1.8 percentage points. Private forecasters, such as McCain economic adviser mark Zandi, come up with similar estimates. This would have been useful information to include in this article.
This would no doubt be how the Washington Post’s economic reporters would have covered the World Cup final. They would not have bothered to tell readers that Spain in fact did win the World Cup, regardless of what the Netherlands’ fans claim.
This comes up in the context of the impact of the stimulus where the Post treats us to a he said/ she said. The Post has a quote from an economist at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities who says the stimulus was a good idea and helped the economy. It also features a quote from an economist at the CATO Institute who says that it didn’t help the economy and just added to the debt.
Maybe we could check with the ref. The Congressional Budget Office says it increased GDP by between 1.7 percent and 4.5 percent. They also calculate that it reduced the unemployment rate by between 0.7 and 1.8 percentage points. Private forecasters, such as McCain economic adviser mark Zandi, come up with similar estimates. This would have been useful information to include in this article.
Read More Leer más Join the discussion Participa en la discusión
The first sentence of a Washington Post article on the decision by the SEC not to pursue legal action against the company told readers that the rating agency “misjudged” many securities that subsequently plunged in value. This assertion is exactly what is in dispute.
The rating agency clearly mis-rated many securities, giving investment grade ratings to issues that were clearly junk, at least in retrospect. The question is whether the erroneous ratings were honest mistakes — misjudgements — or whether they were due to fact that Moody’s knew that issuers wanted investment grade ratings and would not hire them in the future if they could not be relied upon to produce such ratings. The Post has somewhere determined that Moody’s just made honest mistakes and told readers so in the very first sentence.
The first sentence of a Washington Post article on the decision by the SEC not to pursue legal action against the company told readers that the rating agency “misjudged” many securities that subsequently plunged in value. This assertion is exactly what is in dispute.
The rating agency clearly mis-rated many securities, giving investment grade ratings to issues that were clearly junk, at least in retrospect. The question is whether the erroneous ratings were honest mistakes — misjudgements — or whether they were due to fact that Moody’s knew that issuers wanted investment grade ratings and would not hire them in the future if they could not be relied upon to produce such ratings. The Post has somewhere determined that Moody’s just made honest mistakes and told readers so in the very first sentence.
Read More Leer más Join the discussion Participa en la discusión
Fool or Liar? That is the question that should be posed of anyone who says that companies are not hiring because of concerns about taxes or regulations.
Exhibit A, the only one necessary to prove the case, is that there has been no unusual increase in average weekly hours. There is some uptick from the low-point of the downturn, but nothing unusual for an upturn, and we are still far below average weekly hours from before the recession.
Fool or Liar? That is the question that should be posed of anyone who says that companies are not hiring because of concerns about taxes or regulations.
Exhibit A, the only one necessary to prove the case, is that there has been no unusual increase in average weekly hours. There is some uptick from the low-point of the downturn, but nothing unusual for an upturn, and we are still far below average weekly hours from before the recession.
Read More Leer más Join the discussion Participa en la discusión
Mr. Sorkin noted Wall Street’s shift of funding to Republicans and told readers that:
“Mr. Loeb’s views, irrespective of their validity, point to a bigger problem for the economy: If business leaders have a such a distrust of government, they won’t invest in the country. And perception is becoming reality.”
Is that so? Well, business leaders were never more angry at the government than during Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal. And, let’s see what they did in those years. Here are the growth rates for non-residential fixed investment in the first four years of the New Deal.
1934 27.4%
1935 26.7%
1936 35.2%
1937 19.8%
It looks like the business leaders were able to put their anger aside and invest where it was profitable. Of course business leaders always stand to gain if they convince the public of the argument that Mr. Sorkin is making — if the government doesn’t give them everything they want then they won’t invest. However, the evidence does not seem to support Mr. Sorkin’s assertion.
Mr. Sorkin noted Wall Street’s shift of funding to Republicans and told readers that:
“Mr. Loeb’s views, irrespective of their validity, point to a bigger problem for the economy: If business leaders have a such a distrust of government, they won’t invest in the country. And perception is becoming reality.”
Is that so? Well, business leaders were never more angry at the government than during Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal. And, let’s see what they did in those years. Here are the growth rates for non-residential fixed investment in the first four years of the New Deal.
1934 27.4%
1935 26.7%
1936 35.2%
1937 19.8%
It looks like the business leaders were able to put their anger aside and invest where it was profitable. Of course business leaders always stand to gain if they convince the public of the argument that Mr. Sorkin is making — if the government doesn’t give them everything they want then they won’t invest. However, the evidence does not seem to support Mr. Sorkin’s assertion.
Read More Leer más Join the discussion Participa en la discusión
This time it is in UK. It begins an otherwise good article about how proposed budget cuts will disproportionately hit women with the line: “as Britain prepares for the deepest budget cuts in generations to tackle a crippling mound of public debt.”
How has it been determined that Britain faces a “crippling mound” of public debt? Certainly the markets have not made this determination since they are still willing to lend money to the UK at very low interest rates. This is simply the view of the writer and or editor, not a fact in the world.
A real newspaper would write: “as Britain prepares for the deepest budget cuts in generations to reduce its public debt.” This increases accuracy and saves words.
This time it is in UK. It begins an otherwise good article about how proposed budget cuts will disproportionately hit women with the line: “as Britain prepares for the deepest budget cuts in generations to tackle a crippling mound of public debt.”
How has it been determined that Britain faces a “crippling mound” of public debt? Certainly the markets have not made this determination since they are still willing to lend money to the UK at very low interest rates. This is simply the view of the writer and or editor, not a fact in the world.
A real newspaper would write: “as Britain prepares for the deepest budget cuts in generations to reduce its public debt.” This increases accuracy and saves words.
Read More Leer más Join the discussion Participa en la discusión
Why is it so hard for reporters to understand the idea of purchasing power parity? This is important if anyone is interested in understanding China’s importance in the world economy. China produces and consumes more output in a wide variety of goods and services. This would not make sense for an economy that is just passing the size of Japan, putting China’s economy at a bit more than one-third the size of the U.S. economy.
The more realistic measure is the purchasing power parity measure that puts China’s economy at almost two-thirds of the size of the U.S. economy. This measure applies a common set of prices to all goods and services, regardless of which country they are produced in. This measure of China’s GDP is far more consistent with a country that both buys and produces more cars than the United States, has more Internet users and twice as many cell phones users.
Why is it so hard for reporters to understand the idea of purchasing power parity? This is important if anyone is interested in understanding China’s importance in the world economy. China produces and consumes more output in a wide variety of goods and services. This would not make sense for an economy that is just passing the size of Japan, putting China’s economy at a bit more than one-third the size of the U.S. economy.
The more realistic measure is the purchasing power parity measure that puts China’s economy at almost two-thirds of the size of the U.S. economy. This measure applies a common set of prices to all goods and services, regardless of which country they are produced in. This measure of China’s GDP is far more consistent with a country that both buys and produces more cars than the United States, has more Internet users and twice as many cell phones users.
Read More Leer más Join the discussion Participa en la discusión
This fact would be worth mentioning in an article that discusses Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke’s attitude toward the deficit. If Greenspan and Bernanke (who was a Fed governor from 2002) had paid attention to the $8 trillion housing bubble, and prevented it from growing to the point where it could do so much damage, then the country would not be in a serious downturn today, and we would not be running a large budget deficit.
It is only due to the incompetence of the people running the Fed that we are facing such severe economic problems. In other lines of work, like dishwashers and custodians, people would be fired for such incompetence, but those running the Fed are not held accountable in the same way as most workers.
This fact would be worth mentioning in an article that discusses Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke’s attitude toward the deficit. If Greenspan and Bernanke (who was a Fed governor from 2002) had paid attention to the $8 trillion housing bubble, and prevented it from growing to the point where it could do so much damage, then the country would not be in a serious downturn today, and we would not be running a large budget deficit.
It is only due to the incompetence of the people running the Fed that we are facing such severe economic problems. In other lines of work, like dishwashers and custodians, people would be fired for such incompetence, but those running the Fed are not held accountable in the same way as most workers.
Read More Leer más Join the discussion Participa en la discusión
Robert Samuelson seems to think that the problem with the recovery is that people are still saving. While this is in part right, Normal 0 he is wrong to suggest that anyone should be surprised by the current level of saving.
The current saving rate is approximately 6 percent of disposable income. While Samuelson implies this is high, it is actually very low by historic standards. The saving rate averaged more than 8 percent through most of the post-war era until the wealth effect of the stock and housing bubbles drove it toward zero in the last 15 years.
Samuelson seems to think that after a couple of years of a 6 percent saving rate, saving will again fall to its bubble levels of near zero. There is no reason to expect this. As the housing bubble deflates further, households will see a further decline in wealth. They will likely increase their saving rate to the 8 percent pre-bubble range.
In fact, demographics suggest that the saving rate could rise even higher. The huge baby boom cohort is at the edge of retirement, with most having almost nothing other than their Social Security to depend upon. This provides a strong incentive to save, especially in an environment where much of the political leadership is pushing for cuts to Social Security.
Robert Samuelson seems to think that the problem with the recovery is that people are still saving. While this is in part right, Normal 0 he is wrong to suggest that anyone should be surprised by the current level of saving.
The current saving rate is approximately 6 percent of disposable income. While Samuelson implies this is high, it is actually very low by historic standards. The saving rate averaged more than 8 percent through most of the post-war era until the wealth effect of the stock and housing bubbles drove it toward zero in the last 15 years.
Samuelson seems to think that after a couple of years of a 6 percent saving rate, saving will again fall to its bubble levels of near zero. There is no reason to expect this. As the housing bubble deflates further, households will see a further decline in wealth. They will likely increase their saving rate to the 8 percent pre-bubble range.
In fact, demographics suggest that the saving rate could rise even higher. The huge baby boom cohort is at the edge of retirement, with most having almost nothing other than their Social Security to depend upon. This provides a strong incentive to save, especially in an environment where much of the political leadership is pushing for cuts to Social Security.
Read More Leer más Join the discussion Participa en la discusión
The Washington Post told readers that the Korean trade pact would raise the price of hogs by $10 each, roughly a 20 percent increase. The context was a claim that the pact would be very important to Indiana farmers. If this is true, then it implies that the Korean trade pact will put serious upward pressure on food prices in the United States.
It is extremely unlikely that more open agricultural trade with a relatively small market could have such a dramatic impact on farm prices. More likely, it is one of the nonsense stories that proponents of trade pacts routinely circulate with the expectation that news outlets like the Washington Post will repeat them unquestioningly. Of course a serious newspaper would point out the implications of such a claim, if it were true.
The Washington Post told readers that the Korean trade pact would raise the price of hogs by $10 each, roughly a 20 percent increase. The context was a claim that the pact would be very important to Indiana farmers. If this is true, then it implies that the Korean trade pact will put serious upward pressure on food prices in the United States.
It is extremely unlikely that more open agricultural trade with a relatively small market could have such a dramatic impact on farm prices. More likely, it is one of the nonsense stories that proponents of trade pacts routinely circulate with the expectation that news outlets like the Washington Post will repeat them unquestioningly. Of course a serious newspaper would point out the implications of such a claim, if it were true.
Read More Leer más Join the discussion Participa en la discusión
The NYT told readers that the Fed’s ability to take steps to boost the economy are limited because:
“The dramatic expansion of the national debt — which began in the Bush administration, via hefty tax cuts and two wars — has ratcheted up fears that, one day, creditors like China and Japan might demand sharply higher interest rates to finance American spending.”
It may be true that such “fears” may prevent the steps to raise employment in the same way that children fear monsters in the dark, and therefore feel the need to keep the light on when they sleep, but reporters should also point out that such fears have no basis in reality. If China and Japan “demand sharply higher interest rates,” then it would mean that the dollar would fall sharply against their currencies.
This is exactly the policy that the Obama administration is ostensibly committed to. The lower value of the dollar would lead to a sharp boost to U.S. exports and a fall in imports, lifting growth and employment. It is difficult to understand why anyone would fear the outcome that we are ostensibly committed to seeing. In short, the “fears” have no basis in reality and are promoted either out of ignorance or by people who have ulterior motives.
At one point the article tells readers that Germany has done relatively well in this downturn without using stimulus:
“Germany, which has long harbored particularly powerful fears of inflation, has done relatively well in the current downturn without large stimulus spending, and that experience is now cited by adherents of austerity.”
Dishonest adherents of austerity do cite this experience, but it is easy to show that the Germany history does not support their case. According to the OECD, government consumption expenditures increased more in Germany since the downturn than in the United States.
It is worth noting that Germany should have an easier time recovering from this downturn since its economy was not driven by a housing bubble. The main impact on Germany’s economy has been through a decline in exports.
It would have been useful if this article had included the views of some economists who were able to see the $8 trillion housing, the collapse of which led to the downturn.
The NYT told readers that the Fed’s ability to take steps to boost the economy are limited because:
“The dramatic expansion of the national debt — which began in the Bush administration, via hefty tax cuts and two wars — has ratcheted up fears that, one day, creditors like China and Japan might demand sharply higher interest rates to finance American spending.”
It may be true that such “fears” may prevent the steps to raise employment in the same way that children fear monsters in the dark, and therefore feel the need to keep the light on when they sleep, but reporters should also point out that such fears have no basis in reality. If China and Japan “demand sharply higher interest rates,” then it would mean that the dollar would fall sharply against their currencies.
This is exactly the policy that the Obama administration is ostensibly committed to. The lower value of the dollar would lead to a sharp boost to U.S. exports and a fall in imports, lifting growth and employment. It is difficult to understand why anyone would fear the outcome that we are ostensibly committed to seeing. In short, the “fears” have no basis in reality and are promoted either out of ignorance or by people who have ulterior motives.
At one point the article tells readers that Germany has done relatively well in this downturn without using stimulus:
“Germany, which has long harbored particularly powerful fears of inflation, has done relatively well in the current downturn without large stimulus spending, and that experience is now cited by adherents of austerity.”
Dishonest adherents of austerity do cite this experience, but it is easy to show that the Germany history does not support their case. According to the OECD, government consumption expenditures increased more in Germany since the downturn than in the United States.
It is worth noting that Germany should have an easier time recovering from this downturn since its economy was not driven by a housing bubble. The main impact on Germany’s economy has been through a decline in exports.
It would have been useful if this article had included the views of some economists who were able to see the $8 trillion housing, the collapse of which led to the downturn.
Read More Leer más Join the discussion Participa en la discusión
