The Washington Post adopted a new tactic in its ongoing campaign to cut Social Security benefits, highlighting a relatively trivial amount of mispayments or fraud, leading readers to believe that the program has major administrative problems. The Post devoted a major news story to a GAO report that found “1,500 federal workers might have received improper or fraudulent Social Security payments in the past several years.”
There are just under 8 million people who receive disability benefits. Summing over 4 years would give approximately 30 million disability years of benefits. The GAO report identifying 1,500 federal workers who received benefits would imply 3,000 per years of improper benefits, assuming an average of 2 years of benefits per worker. This is equal to 0.01 percent of the beneficiaries of the program.
A mistake of this magnitude would warrant little or no attention in a newspaper reporting issues that affected people’s lives in any way. However, it is not surprising that it would get substantial attention in a newspaper like the Post, which is on a campaign to cut Social Security and freely uses its news section to advance this agenda.
The Washington Post adopted a new tactic in its ongoing campaign to cut Social Security benefits, highlighting a relatively trivial amount of mispayments or fraud, leading readers to believe that the program has major administrative problems. The Post devoted a major news story to a GAO report that found “1,500 federal workers might have received improper or fraudulent Social Security payments in the past several years.”
There are just under 8 million people who receive disability benefits. Summing over 4 years would give approximately 30 million disability years of benefits. The GAO report identifying 1,500 federal workers who received benefits would imply 3,000 per years of improper benefits, assuming an average of 2 years of benefits per worker. This is equal to 0.01 percent of the beneficiaries of the program.
A mistake of this magnitude would warrant little or no attention in a newspaper reporting issues that affected people’s lives in any way. However, it is not surprising that it would get substantial attention in a newspaper like the Post, which is on a campaign to cut Social Security and freely uses its news section to advance this agenda.
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This exciting tidbit was conveyed in the lead-in to a story on the failure of the Obama administration’s mortgage modification program (HAMP). That is a surprising assessment given the fact that purchase mortgage applications have dropped by more than 30 percent from year ago levels since the end of the homebuyer’s tax credit on April 30th. Unless 30 percent fewer people feel like selling their homes in 2010 than 2009 (a relatively weak period for house sales), then house prices will be headed sharply lower. (This is based on a complex technical process known as “supply and demand.”)
The issue of the direction of house prices is actually very relevant to the topic. The housing bubble has not fully deflated in many areas of the country. This means that government efforts to keep people in their homes are likely to still leave many people underwater. In other words, by design, the Obama program will be paying servicers and investors money for mortgage modifications that still leave homeowners with no equity in their homes. This makes HAMP a good mechanism for getting money to banks, but a very way to help homeowners.
It is not possible to assess the merits of this sort of mortgage modification program without a serious assessment of the future course of house prices. NPR excluded such a discussion with the unsupported assertion in its lead-in.
This exciting tidbit was conveyed in the lead-in to a story on the failure of the Obama administration’s mortgage modification program (HAMP). That is a surprising assessment given the fact that purchase mortgage applications have dropped by more than 30 percent from year ago levels since the end of the homebuyer’s tax credit on April 30th. Unless 30 percent fewer people feel like selling their homes in 2010 than 2009 (a relatively weak period for house sales), then house prices will be headed sharply lower. (This is based on a complex technical process known as “supply and demand.”)
The issue of the direction of house prices is actually very relevant to the topic. The housing bubble has not fully deflated in many areas of the country. This means that government efforts to keep people in their homes are likely to still leave many people underwater. In other words, by design, the Obama program will be paying servicers and investors money for mortgage modifications that still leave homeowners with no equity in their homes. This makes HAMP a good mechanism for getting money to banks, but a very way to help homeowners.
It is not possible to assess the merits of this sort of mortgage modification program without a serious assessment of the future course of house prices. NPR excluded such a discussion with the unsupported assertion in its lead-in.
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For those wondering what those Wall Street boys do to earn tens of millions a year in salary and bonuses, the NYT has part of the answer. The Wall Street boys rip off school districts and other governmental units who pay them high fees for creating complex financial instruments that they don’t understand.
For those wondering what those Wall Street boys do to earn tens of millions a year in salary and bonuses, the NYT has part of the answer. The Wall Street boys rip off school districts and other governmental units who pay them high fees for creating complex financial instruments that they don’t understand.
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The WSJ had a piece on the European Central Bank’s (ECB) decision to buy a small amount of government bonds. It raises the question of whether this could jeopardize the ECB’s credibility as an inflation fighter.
This is an interesting question. According to central bank folklore, credibility as an inflation fighter comes from being willing to impose a severe recession to squeeze inflation out of the system. Paul Volcker sits at the top in the Central Banker’s Hall of Fame for his willingness to keep interest rates high through 1981-82 recession. The folklore tells us that we don’t want to lose this hard-earned credibility by allowing inflation to rise now.
It is worth noting that in its length and depth, the 1981-82 recession is being dwarfed by the current downturn. In other words, even if aggressive monetary expansion did lead to inflation that central banks subsequently felt necessary to rein in, the cost in terms of unemployment and lost output is likely to be less than we are now experiencing.
This should make more expansionary policy at present a no-brainer, but we have to remember, our central banks are run by people who could not see an $8 trillion housing bubble.
The WSJ had a piece on the European Central Bank’s (ECB) decision to buy a small amount of government bonds. It raises the question of whether this could jeopardize the ECB’s credibility as an inflation fighter.
This is an interesting question. According to central bank folklore, credibility as an inflation fighter comes from being willing to impose a severe recession to squeeze inflation out of the system. Paul Volcker sits at the top in the Central Banker’s Hall of Fame for his willingness to keep interest rates high through 1981-82 recession. The folklore tells us that we don’t want to lose this hard-earned credibility by allowing inflation to rise now.
It is worth noting that in its length and depth, the 1981-82 recession is being dwarfed by the current downturn. In other words, even if aggressive monetary expansion did lead to inflation that central banks subsequently felt necessary to rein in, the cost in terms of unemployment and lost output is likely to be less than we are now experiencing.
This should make more expansionary policy at present a no-brainer, but we have to remember, our central banks are run by people who could not see an $8 trillion housing bubble.
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The Post wants cuts so badly that they just can’t resist using its news section to push its agenda. In an article on the release of the new trustees reports for Medicare and Social Security, the article notes the projected shortfall in these programs and then tells readers: “but Democrats and Republicans have disagreed about the best approach and shied away from the political pain of paring benefits for older Americans in the highly popular entitlements.”
A serious newspaper would point out that both Democrats and Republicans have shied away from any changes that would substantially improve the financial health of Social Security. This would include measures like raising the wage cap on the Social Security payroll tax. It would also include raising the tax rate itself, which poll after poll has shown is more popular than cutting benefits. A serious newspaper would also point out that the projected shortfall is far in the future and that there is no obvious reason that Congress should take steps to address it any time soon. A fix comparable to the 1983 fix could be put in place in 2030 and leave the program fully solvent until close to the end of the century.
The piece should also have noted that the Medicare Trustees projections show that Congress just eliminated 80 percent of the projected shortfall in the Medicare program. If this proves accurate, then this would be an enormous accomplishment.
The Post wants cuts so badly that they just can’t resist using its news section to push its agenda. In an article on the release of the new trustees reports for Medicare and Social Security, the article notes the projected shortfall in these programs and then tells readers: “but Democrats and Republicans have disagreed about the best approach and shied away from the political pain of paring benefits for older Americans in the highly popular entitlements.”
A serious newspaper would point out that both Democrats and Republicans have shied away from any changes that would substantially improve the financial health of Social Security. This would include measures like raising the wage cap on the Social Security payroll tax. It would also include raising the tax rate itself, which poll after poll has shown is more popular than cutting benefits. A serious newspaper would also point out that the projected shortfall is far in the future and that there is no obvious reason that Congress should take steps to address it any time soon. A fix comparable to the 1983 fix could be put in place in 2030 and leave the program fully solvent until close to the end of the century.
The piece should also have noted that the Medicare Trustees projections show that Congress just eliminated 80 percent of the projected shortfall in the Medicare program. If this proves accurate, then this would be an enormous accomplishment.
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Much of the whining over current and projected future deficits is couched in terms of inter-generational equity. The story goes that we are doing bad things to our children and grandchildren by running up a huge debt that will threaten their living standards. In this story, the bottom line is supposed to be the living standards of future generations.
This should leave the public wondering why it seems that absolutely no one among the deficit whiners (including the reporters and editorial writers) commented on the fact that the Social Security trustees report released yesterday showed much higher wage growth than the previous year’s report. According to the new report, average annual wages (adjusted for inflation) will be 47.8 percent higher in 2040 than in 2010. Last year’s report showed wages would be 39.1 percent higher in 2040 than in 2010.
This higher wage growth projection dwarfs the impact of any potential tax increases that could be necessary to deal with budget deficits. For example, the change from last year’s projections to this year’s projections, if it proves accurate, would have more than twice as much impact in raising living standards as a 3 percentage point increase in the payroll tax would have in reducing living standards.
If the deficit hawk gang was actually concerned about the living standards of future generations, it is inconceivable that they would not be discussing these new projections. The fact that they have completely ignored them suggests that their concern with deficit projections have nothing to do with the living standards of our children and grandchildren.
Much of the whining over current and projected future deficits is couched in terms of inter-generational equity. The story goes that we are doing bad things to our children and grandchildren by running up a huge debt that will threaten their living standards. In this story, the bottom line is supposed to be the living standards of future generations.
This should leave the public wondering why it seems that absolutely no one among the deficit whiners (including the reporters and editorial writers) commented on the fact that the Social Security trustees report released yesterday showed much higher wage growth than the previous year’s report. According to the new report, average annual wages (adjusted for inflation) will be 47.8 percent higher in 2040 than in 2010. Last year’s report showed wages would be 39.1 percent higher in 2040 than in 2010.
This higher wage growth projection dwarfs the impact of any potential tax increases that could be necessary to deal with budget deficits. For example, the change from last year’s projections to this year’s projections, if it proves accurate, would have more than twice as much impact in raising living standards as a 3 percentage point increase in the payroll tax would have in reducing living standards.
If the deficit hawk gang was actually concerned about the living standards of future generations, it is inconceivable that they would not be discussing these new projections. The fact that they have completely ignored them suggests that their concern with deficit projections have nothing to do with the living standards of our children and grandchildren.
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In a discussion of the impact of the BP oil spill, the NYT qualified the estimates of the size of the spill from the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) by telling readers that: “NOAA is the same agency that devised the early, now-discredited estimate that the well was leaking only 5,000 barrels a day, one reason some people distrust the new report.”
This is useful information for readers, since the fact that the agency had previously been off by a factor of ten in its earlier estimate of the size of the spill might suggest something about its competence and/or its integrity. This is relevant to the credibility that should be assigned to new estimates from the agency.
In the same vein, it would be appropriate to report on the failure of individual economists or organizations, like Harvard’s Joint Center on Housing, to notice the $8 trillion housing bubble, when discussing the current views on the housing market and the economy.
In a discussion of the impact of the BP oil spill, the NYT qualified the estimates of the size of the spill from the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) by telling readers that: “NOAA is the same agency that devised the early, now-discredited estimate that the well was leaking only 5,000 barrels a day, one reason some people distrust the new report.”
This is useful information for readers, since the fact that the agency had previously been off by a factor of ten in its earlier estimate of the size of the spill might suggest something about its competence and/or its integrity. This is relevant to the credibility that should be assigned to new estimates from the agency.
In the same vein, it would be appropriate to report on the failure of individual economists or organizations, like Harvard’s Joint Center on Housing, to notice the $8 trillion housing bubble, when discussing the current views on the housing market and the economy.
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The NYT discussed the Obama administration’s plans to extend President Bush’s tax cuts only for households earning less than $250,000 a year. The article also reported on Republican claims that not extending the tax breaks for the wealthy would hurt the economy. It concluded by telling readers that:
“he [Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner] dismissed as “myths” Republican arguments that tax cuts pay for themselves, by bringing in new revenues from economic growth.”
It would have been helpful to note that this is not just Secretary Geithner or the Democrat’s view. It is the near unanimous view of every economist who has examined the issue, including Republican economists. For example, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, a prominent Republican economist who was the chief economic advisor to John McCain in his presidential campaign, examined this issue when he headed the Congressional Budget Office. He used a wide variety of models and found that in the most optimistic scenario additional growth could temporarily replace 30 percent of the lost revenue. (Even this increase would largely disappear in the long run.)
The treatment of the issue in the article may lead readers to believe that the question of whether tax cuts pay for themselves is one that is actively debated by economists. In fact, it has long been settled even if some Republican politicians choose to ignore the evidence.
The NYT discussed the Obama administration’s plans to extend President Bush’s tax cuts only for households earning less than $250,000 a year. The article also reported on Republican claims that not extending the tax breaks for the wealthy would hurt the economy. It concluded by telling readers that:
“he [Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner] dismissed as “myths” Republican arguments that tax cuts pay for themselves, by bringing in new revenues from economic growth.”
It would have been helpful to note that this is not just Secretary Geithner or the Democrat’s view. It is the near unanimous view of every economist who has examined the issue, including Republican economists. For example, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, a prominent Republican economist who was the chief economic advisor to John McCain in his presidential campaign, examined this issue when he headed the Congressional Budget Office. He used a wide variety of models and found that in the most optimistic scenario additional growth could temporarily replace 30 percent of the lost revenue. (Even this increase would largely disappear in the long run.)
The treatment of the issue in the article may lead readers to believe that the question of whether tax cuts pay for themselves is one that is actively debated by economists. In fact, it has long been settled even if some Republican politicians choose to ignore the evidence.
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The Post should have reminded readers of this fact when reporting that: “Republican leaders criticized the package as a giveaway to labor and an undeserved bailout for profligate state governments.” The package in question was a bill to provide additional funding for education and health care to states.
The Post should have reminded readers of this fact when reporting that: “Republican leaders criticized the package as a giveaway to labor and an undeserved bailout for profligate state governments.” The package in question was a bill to provide additional funding for education and health care to states.
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It’s super silly season in Washington. The powers that be have decided that Social Security should be cut, so now anyone can say anything they want against the program, even if it is directly contradicted by the evidence.
In this spirit the WSJ told readers: “In 2010, Social Security expenditures will exceed receipts for the first time since 1983, the last time Congress enacted major changes to the program.” This is not true. As trustees report clearly shows, the program is projected to have a surplus of almost $80 billion in 2010. It is true that tax receipts will be less than projected benefits, but that is not a relevant figure for the program since it also collects interest on the bonds held by the trust fund.
It’s super silly season in Washington. The powers that be have decided that Social Security should be cut, so now anyone can say anything they want against the program, even if it is directly contradicted by the evidence.
In this spirit the WSJ told readers: “In 2010, Social Security expenditures will exceed receipts for the first time since 1983, the last time Congress enacted major changes to the program.” This is not true. As trustees report clearly shows, the program is projected to have a surplus of almost $80 billion in 2010. It is true that tax receipts will be less than projected benefits, but that is not a relevant figure for the program since it also collects interest on the bonds held by the trust fund.
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