July 29, 2016
A sharp slowing of the rate of inventory accumulation led to a lower than expected 1.2 percent GDP growth rate in the second quarter. The weakness of inventories subtracted 1.16 percentage points from the quarter’s growth. Final demand grew at a moderate 2.4 percent annual rate. The first quarter’s data were also revised down from 1.1 to 0.8 percent, meaning that the economy grew at just a 1.0 percent annual rate in the first half of the year.
Consumption is by far the main factor driving growth in the quarter, growing at a 4.2 percent annual rate. Most of this growth was on the goods side, which grew at a 6.8 percent annual rate, while consumption of services grew at a more modest 3.0 percent rate.
Most categories of investment were negative, with non-residential structures falling at a 7.9 percent rate, and equipment investment falling at a 3.5 percent rate. Investment in intellectual property products grew at a modest 3.5 percent rate. Residential construction fell at a 6.1 percent rate, after six consecutive quarters of strong growth.
Trade was a small positive, adding 0.23 percentage points to growth in the quarter, while government was a small negative. Government spending fell at a 0.9 percent annual rate, subtracting 0.16 percentage points from the quarter’s growth. Federal, state, and local spending declined in the quarter, but most of the drop was due to a 1.3 percent drop in state and local spending.
While the inventory situation will be reversed in future quarters, leading to a positive contribution to growth, it is questionable whether growth will even cross 2.0 percent for the year. Concerns at the Fed and elsewhere about overly rapid growth seem to be seriously misplaced.
