New Poll Reveals How Middle East Conflict Could Imperil Biden’s Reelection Bid

January 25, 2024

Contact: Dan Beeton, 202-293-5380 x104

Nearly a Quarter of Biden 2020 Voters Would Hold Him Responsible for Rising Gas Prices Driven by Widening of War

Washington, DC — A new YouGov poll, commissioned by the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR), shows that a majority of Americans would hold President Biden responsible for a rise in gasoline prices, if the ongoing conflict in the Middle East were to widen further.

23 percent of respondents who voted for Biden in 2020 reported that they would hold the president responsible for an increase in gas prices due to a widening of the current conflict.

“This is a very large group of people who voted for Biden in 2020 and would hold him responsible for a rise in gasoline prices resulting from a widening Middle East war,” said Mark Weisbrot, economist and Co-Director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research.

“This could easily make the difference in a close election. If a small percentage — even about 1 in 20 — of this large group of voters were to stay home as a result of their dissatisfaction with the rise in gasoline prices, that could be enough to tip the election,” said Weisbrot. This calculation is based on the results of the 2020 election, where a defection of this very small number of Democratic voters would have changed the result, with Biden losing Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia, and therefore getting just 269 electoral votes — not enough to win the presidency.

Overall, 52 percent of respondents reported that they would hold President Biden responsible if the current war in the Middle East expands and gasoline prices rise to more than $5 a gallon; 34 percent reported that they would not; and 14 percent reported that they do not know.
71 percent of respondents reported that increased gas prices, owing to an expanded war, would affect the outcome of the US presidential election in November; 12 percent reported that they would not; 18 percent reported they don’t know.

“The 2024 election could very easily be tipped by just a very small fraction of Biden voters who become upset about high gasoline prices, blame the president, and choose not to come out and vote,” said Justin Talbot Zorn, a Senior Advisor at CEPR.