•Press Release
November 30, 2007 En español
Statement Implies that Datanalisis Poll is Not Valid
For Immediate Release: November 30, 2007
Contact: Dan Beeton, 202-293-5380 x104
In an interview with Reuters posted online yesterday, Luis Vicente Leon, a pollster for Datanalisis stated, “The most probable [projection] is that there will be no surprise and Chavez will win 60 percent against 40 percent.”
Datanalisis’ prior survey has been the most widely cited poll in the international media in the run-up to Sunday’s referendum. The poll, conducted on behalf of private businesses, and reported in the media on November 24, reported that “about 49 percent of likely voters oppose the reforms while 39 percent favor.”
Vicente Leon’s statements directly contradict the results of the poll. If the 60/40 projection is correct, CEPR calculated that the odds of obtaining the prior poll result – i.e. 49 percent of respondents saying no — would be one in two billion trillion.
“As a statistical matter, Mr. Vicente Leon’s remarks can be considered an admission that his previous poll was not valid,” said CEPR Co-Director Mark Weisbrot.
