News of technological developments seem to take a long time to reach the New York Times. Yesterday it ran a major news story on how lithium deposits were going to be the economic salvation of Imperial County, California. The headline tells readers that the county stands to be the “Saudi Arabia” of lithium. The subhead gushes:

“Residents of Imperial County, Calif., are in dire need of an economic boost. Experts say the answer lies beneath the Salton Sea, where a lithium trove sits.”

While that sounds like good news for the people of county, which is economically depressed, the benefits may not be as great as advertised. The piece notes that lithium is the major component in batteries, which are increasingly needed for electric vehicles and storing wind and solar energy.

The problem with the lithium-deposits-as-salvation story is that the technology for sodium-based batteries is developing rapidly, and they are already being used on a large scale. As Reuters reported, CATL, the world’s largest battery maker, along with BYD, the world’s largest EV manufacturer, are already mass producing sodium-based batteries.

As the piece notes, sodium-based batteries have some features that make them more attractive than lithium batteries. They hold a charge better in very cold temperatures, and they can be charged more quickly. However, they provide less electricity per unit of weight, which makes them less desirable for use in EVs.

It is possible that technological developments will reduce the gap in the amount of energy stored per unit of weight. But there are important uses where this is not major factor, notably batteries used to store wind and solar energy. And the weight may not be a major factor for vehicles that are not intended for long mileage between charges, which is actually most cars most of the time.

In any case, it is a big leap to assume that lithium, the mining of which is very bad for the local environment, will be in high demand long into the future. This is ironic in the context of the Times article on Imperial Valley. It tells readers:

“Many residents feel they have been burned before. The geothermal and solar industries also descended on the region with big promises, but the quality of life has continued to deteriorate in Imperial County, said Michael Luellen, mayor of Calipatria, a desert town of about 6,500 people that is best known for its state prison.”

It seems very likely that mining Imperial Valley’s “Saudi Arabia of Lithium” will be yet one more burn for the county.

Back to Speed Soon

Sorry for the limited and short posts in recent weeks. I’ve been moving – mostly done now. Big data releases coming soon. This morning we get data on February consumption and personal consumption expenditure deflator, as well as the revised 4th quarter GDP report with data on profits for the quarter and year. Friday, we get the March CPI. I’ll have things to say!