November 17, 2011
George Will gave a seriously inaccurate accounting of history in his Washington Post column today. He told readers:
“Sensible people who remember the last grand budget bargain will be dry-eyed about not having another now. Although only 21 of the 242 Republicans in the House and eight of 47 Republicans in the Senate were on Capitol Hill in 1990, everyone there should remember the results of that year’s budget agreement, wherein President George H.W. Bush jettisoned his “no new taxes” pledge: Taxes increased. So did spending. And the deficit. Economic growth decreased.”
That’s not quite right. The economy actually slid into recession in June of 1990. The budget deal wasn’t made until October of 1990. It would take a really really bad deal to slow growth four months before it had been made.
Will also includes a chart that shows projected spending growth with and without a sequester. The point is to imply that there will be large growth in spending regardless even if money is sequestered.
Economists would ordinarily adjust for inflation, which is projected to be around 30 percent in total over the next decade. Perhaps the Post still pays Will the same amount it did in 2001, but wages in general typically rise at least in step with inflation.
Economists would also typically adjust for growth in the economy. If the economy is 30 percent larger (which is the projection), then we would expect to spend roughly 30 percent more, after adjusting for inflation, educating our kids, maintaining and improving our infrastructure, and on other public needs. Apparently, Mr. Will believes that a huge country like the United States does not need to spend any more on education than a small poor country like Haiti. Otherwise he would discuss these sums as shares of GDP, as would any serious analyst.
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