October 23, 2012
The Washington Post had an article highlighting the Fed’s commitment to continue to buy long-term bonds for the foreseeable future, even if the economy looks somewhat better. It then gives a list of what it presents as relatively positive recent economic reports and says that the Fed intends to still continue its bond buying policies.
One of the items on this list is a forecast that the economy will grow 2.0 percent in the third quarter. It is difficult to view this as positive. The Congressional Budget Office puts the economy’s potential growth rate at 2.4-2.5 percent. This means that with a 2.0 percent growth rate the economy is falling further below its potential. With a gap that is already close to 6.0 percent of GDP we should be seeing growth rates that far exceed the economy’s potential rate of growth in order to get us back to potential GDP and full employment.
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