June 13, 2014
Many people reading a NYT article on a series of Greek court decisions rejecting government austerity measures were probably surprised to see the comment that:
“According to analysts, the decisions could upend Mr. Samaras’s progress in putting the economy back on track.”
It’s not clear what progress these analysts have in mind. The Greek economy shrank at a 1.1 percent annual rate in the most recent quarter. While it is projected to show modest (0.6 percent) growth for the year as a whole, the most recent projections from the I.M.F. show the economy will still be 10 percent smaller than its pre-recession level in 2019, the last year covered. These projections don’t show the unemployment rate falling below 20 percent until 2017. It is worth noting that I.M.F. projections for Greece have consistently proven to be overly optimistic.
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