Mind Readers and Bad Math at the Washington Post on Trump and Ryan

May 12, 2016

It would be nice if the Washington Post tried to hire more reporters and fewer mind readers. In a piece explaining that presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump opposes the privatization of Medicare and Social Security championed by House Speaker Paul Ryan, the Post told readers:

“First, Medicare: Many Republicans think the expensive federal system that guarantees unlimited health-care coverage to those 65 and older threatens to bankrupt the nation without spending cuts or significantly higher taxes” (emphasis added).

Reporters don’t know what Republican politicians think, they just know what they say. It would be best if the Post tried to restrict itself to reporting on the latter. As far as the substance, the Post is once again trying to push a story with no basis in reality that implies future generations will be worse off than today’s workers and retirees due to the cost of Social Security and Medicare. To advance this view it uncritically presents the account of Representative David Schweikert, a proponent of privatizing Medicare.

“‘I don’t care about my grandkids,’ Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.) recalled one voter saying at a town-hall meeting, after Schweikert had explained that entitlements needed to be cut so debt would not overwhelm future generations. ‘I want every dime,’ the man said.”

In fact, all the economic projections from official sources, like the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Social Security Trustees, show that on average this person’s grandkids will be hugely richer than the voter to whom Rep. Schweikert referred. The main threat to their living standards is the continuation of the policies that have been redistributing income upwards over the last thirty five years, such as high unemployment, trade policies that protect doctors, lawyers, and other highly paid professionals while deliberately exposing less educated workers to competition, and stronger and longer patent and copyright protections. Most Republicans strongly support these policies, which should make a reporter question whether the well-being of our grandchildren could be the real reason they support privatizing Medicare.

The piece also bizarrely touts the “evidence” backing up Ryan’s numbers without telling readers what the evidence shows.

“At the same time, Trump rejects Ryan’s entire style of politics, which uses detailed budget projections to sketch out worries for the future, followed by an appeal for shared sacrifice.

“Trump’s counterargument lacks such detailed evidence. The evidence is, in effect, Trump himself. He makes little effort to make his numbers add up.”

In fact, the CBO analysis of the Ryan budgets effectively shows that he would eliminate the entire federal government, except for spending on Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, and the military over the next three decades. This is the evidence. It would be useful to readers if the Post would share it.

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