March 24, 2019
Just kidding, this is the Washington Post we’re talking about. An article about how the Midwest floods are jeopardizing the survival of many family farms never once mentioned climate change. While it is impossible to link any specific weather event to climate change, in the sense that we can’t know what the weather would look like had it not been for the rise in greenhouse gases (GHG) worldwide, we do know that climate change will lead to unusual weather patterns like the storms and flooding that hit the Midwest this month.
This would be useful background for those debating policy on global warming. While measures to reduce GHG will have serious costs, the cost of not doing anything will be many more destructive weather events like the Midwest floods. (These events are likely to be far more destructive in the developing world where governments are much less well-prepared to deal with the consequences.)
While the piece did highlight the negative impact that Donald Trump’s trade war has had on farmers, it never once mentioned the negative impact of the rise in the dollar over the last two years. There is a world price for corn, soybeans, and other commodities. If the dollar rises by 10 percent against the currencies of our trading partners, this means that our farmers will get 10 percent less in dollar terms for their crops. Since most input costs for farmers are in dollar terms, this is a serious hit to US farmers.
It is bizarre that the WaPo never mentioned this fact in this piece, and in fact, rarely measures the impact of the value of the dollar on US trade more generally. This is the sort of thing that any intro econ student should know. It is also important in current trade debates since currency values was a major issue that Trump promised to raise with China in his campaign, although it seems to have largely disappeared in his trade negotiations with China.
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