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Andrew Sentance Wants Us to Stop Worrying About DeflationDean Baker / May 29, 2014
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Ukraine’s IMF Agreement Could Worsen the Country’s ProblemsMark Weisbrot / May 29, 2014
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Six Things George Will Would Not Have Said If He Had Access to Economic DataGeorge Will devoted his column today to complaining about Obamanomics, or more specifically the state of the economy during the Obama administration. The article includes a serious of inaccurate or misleading statements which Will presumably made because he doesn't have access to data from his home or office in Washington.
1) Will told readers:
"June begins the sixth year of the anemic recovery from the 18-month recession. Even if what Obama’s administration calls “historically severe” weather — a.k.a., winter — reduced GDP growth by up to 1.4 percentage points, growth of 1.5 percent would still be grotesque."
Actually quarterly data are always erratic and an individual quarter tells people almost nothing about the state of the economy. (The first quarter number was revised downward this morning to show negative growth.) If Will thinks that a 1.5 percent growth rate would be "grotesque" then he would presumably also be appalled by the 1.9 percent growth rate the economy saw in the second quarter of 1986, the sixth year of the Reagan presidency. The best quarterly growth figure we have seen in the last four decades was the 16.5 percent annual growth rate in the second quarter of 1978 in the midst of "Carter-era stagflation."
2) Will complained:
"The recovery’s two best growth years (2.5 percent in 2010 and 2.8 percent in 2012) are satisfactory only when compared with 2011 and 2013 (1.8 percent and 1.9 percent, respectively)."
The recovery has indeed been anemic, but this is due to the fact that this recession was qualitatively different from prior recessions, with the exception of the 2001 downturn. It was caused by the collapse of a housing bubble. If Will had access to data he would know that house prices rose by more than 70 percent above their trend level at the peak of the bubble in 2006. This led to record levels of construction. The wealth effect from $8 trillion in bubble generated equity led to a consumption boom with the savings rate falling to record lows.
When the bubble burst there was no easy way to replace the lost demand from the collapse in residential construction and consumption. Folks who have managed to take an intro econ class know that there are only five components of aggregate demand. In addition to residential construction and consumption, we have non-residential investment, government spending, and net exports. An economic collapse will not generally provide the basis for a boom in non-residential investment. Will's Republican allies in Congress (along with many Democrats) have acted to make sure there was no big increase in government spending.
This only leaves net exports. A major rise in net exports would require a sharp decline in the dollar, which would make U.S. goods and services more competitive in the world economy. However powerful interests like Walmart, which have low-cost supply chains in the developing world, have no interest in seeing the dollar fall in value relative to other currencies, which would undermine their competitive advantage.
Anyhow, given the nature of the downturn, the weakness of the recovery was predictable and predicted. The economy was also slow to recover from 2001 recession, which was caused by the collapse of the stock bubble. It did not start generating jobs again until the fall of 2003 being pulled forward by the growth of the housing bubble.
Dean Baker / May 29, 2014
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The Economic Recovery in Spain Should Push Unemployment Below 10 Percent by 2030Dean Baker / May 29, 2014
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Latin America and the Caribbean
Ahead of House Vote, Members of Congress Warn Sanctions Could Undermine Dialogue in VenezuelaCEPR / May 28, 2014
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Private Equity at Work: Buying High When Financial Markets Are Flying High May Mean Disappointing ReturnsEileen Appelbaum and Rosemary Batt / May 28, 2014
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#AAPI Workers the Least Likely to Be in Private Sector #UnionsSince it's Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) Heritage Month, CEPR decided to take a look at some Census data about AAPI workers. Last week, we talked about low-wage AAPI workers and how an increase in the minimum wage could affect them.
Another interesting story is that of labor unions and AAPI workers. Along with Latinos, AAPIs are the fastest growing sector of the overall workforce as well as unions. The most recent data reveals that 1 in 9 AAPI workers is unionized, which is significantly lower than the rate for whites and blacks, and slightly higher than that of Latino workers.
CEPR and / May 28, 2014
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Why Would the Addition of Young Healthy People Raise the Cost of Insurance?Dean Baker / May 28, 2014
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The NYT Makes Silly Mistakes Because It is Determined to Use Numbers Without Any ContextDean Baker / May 28, 2014
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Why Don’t More People Go To College?John Schmitt / May 27, 2014
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L.A. Times Reports Low-Paid Workers Don't Have Much Money Even After Increase in the Minimum WageDean Baker / May 27, 2014
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Don't Buy the 'Sharing Economy' Hype: Airbnb and Uber are Facilitating Rip-offsDean Baker
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Did Geithner Save America from a Second Great Depression?Dean Baker
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NYT Gets Just About Everything Wrong In Discussing Euro Zone InflationDean Baker / May 27, 2014
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The Data Show the Case for College Is More Ambiguous than What the New York Times Tells YouDean Baker / May 27, 2014
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Syriza Is Opposed to the European Union's Anti-Growth Policy, Not the European UnionDean Baker / May 26, 2014
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The Wall Street Pension ScamDean Baker
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