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Economic Growth

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Ken Rogoff Misses the Boat on Financial Speculation Taxes

In a profession that is controlled almost exclusively by people who completely overlooked the largest asset bubbles in the history of the world, Ken Rogoff earns at least a “B” for his early warnings of dangerous economic imbalances. However, his column criticizing financial speculation taxes (FST) is more on a par with the work of his hopelessly lost colleagues.

The column argues that an FST of the size being considered by the European Union (EU) would reduce the information content of prices, reduce liquidity, and have no appreciable impact on volatility. In the long-run they will raise the cost of capital and therefore slow growth, and not end up raising much revenue.

This is a serious list of charges against a tax of 0.1 percent on a stock trade (0.05 percent on each side) and 0.01 percent on derivative trades (0.005 percent on each side). The most obvious reason for skepticism about Rogoff’s attack is that the increase in transactions costs implied by the tax would just raise them back to the levels of early or even mid-90s.

Computerization and deregulation has led to a sharp decline in transactions costs over the last three decades. A tax of 0.1 percent on stock trades would just remove part of this decline. Trading costs would still be lower than they were in the 80s and much lower than they were in 50s or 60s when they were typically 1 percent of the share price or more.

CEPR / October 04, 2011

Article Artículo

Cholera Cases Down, But Are Past Mistakes Being Repeated?

Although cholera cases decreased by nearly half from July to August following the predictable spike during the rainy season, on average, cholera infected more than 500 people and killed three people each day in September. Although these numbers are still well below previous peaks, they should not provide false confidence, as a decreased caseload in March and April did previously. Cases could increase quickly at almost any time, as cholera is a highly cyclical disease. Indeed, Haiti Libre reported just this week that Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) has seen a significant increase in their case load in Port-au-Prince. Romaine Gitenet, MSF head of mission, told Haiti Libre that “"In one month we went from less than 300 admissions per week to over 850, which suggests a worsening situation in the coming weeks.”  Also worrisome is the continued lack of support to the United Nation’s cholera appeal as humanitarian relief efforts continue to dwindle as funds run out.

Jake Johnston / October 03, 2011